The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
@Evan
Not a bad idea if Labor only scores 70-odd seats. But as Beaglie points out, we run the risk of stomach pump territory if the swing is on.
BTRProducer says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:36 pm
@poroti
Save your beverages of choice for the three key moments.
1. The first change of seat of the night
2. Anthony Green calls the election
3. The concession/victory speech (depending on outcome)
____________________
1) skull a beer
2) fizzy wine – lots
3) combination of 1 and 2 and whatever I can find left over followed by violent stomach cramp
BTRProducer at 10:36 pm
I’ll push on through the 3 can ‘event horizon’ and have a 4th for his concession speech That would be worth cracking open one of those Rochefort 10s from Belgium for .
Burgey says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:46 pm
Am heading to Albo’s do on election night so it’ll either be the bash of the century or a giant funeral.
As for the five State blitz, don’t read anything into it as a reaction to polling – he said at the Grayndler campaign launch at the Sackville in March that he was planning on doing it. He’s not taking anything for granted
中华人民共和国
You tell Albo, if you get a chance, that Upnorth owes him a beer in Cloncurry. He will know who you are talking about cobber. No he is kicking with the wind behind him. Wong off to Perth too.
If Labor wins Cook?…..then we are getting that flight we are coming for a week long party that will make the news
Pi
Nah, things like that have happened before without repercussions. It’s more in line with John Howard being a totally unco bowler. Nothing serious but adds to a general bumbling incompetence. Now if he’d lined him up from distance like the other famous BoJo tackle, things might be different (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iWIUp19bBoA) but it really looks like he just fell over his own feet at a bad time.
Palmer is definitely going after the protect vote.
poroti @ Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:49 pm
Nice choice! I am a fan of St Bernadus Abt 12 as well.
What’s the drinking strategy if the result is uncertain at stumps on Saturday?
BeaglieBoy says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:50 pm
If Labor wins Cook?…..then we are getting that flight we are coming for a week long party that will make the news
中华人民共和国
Wukin Oath!
As a completely beside the point, i am watching “The Good Life” here from c1975 and it is like Time Travel, same effect from The Sweeney or Minder as that is the England I remember, it’s kind of weird but no matter how many times I visit, it is always 1978 in the mind.
I think the win will be clear fairly early in the night.
The fun then will be watching which of the Orcs get Tealed.
Labor starts with 68 and punters say Swan, Pearce, Reid, Chisholm, Boothby, Bass, Braddon and Hawke.
Strong chance Longman, Bennelong and maybe Robertson, Gilmour, Brisbane and Ryan.
No one is going to the polls saying I’m changing this time because I don’t want Albo.
Some voting for the minors may decide to not follow HTV when they get to Scummos lot. That’s why they are changing in the first place.
Good day at CPG worth another half a percent for Labor.
All these references to The Lord of the Rings. I’m not sure how many people here might have read it, but The Lord of the Rings trilogy by J.R.R.Tolkein is truly is one of the greatest literary masterpieces.
I have read the series four times. Once, when I thought fantasy stories about goblins and dwarves was great. But it was a bit of flipping over when certain parts happen. A lot really. I got the story, and I knew which parts I particularly liked, but I didn’t really get it as a narrative piece. There are soooo many characters. It isn’t for the faint-hearted. I was 16.
The next time I read it, I was 21. I’d read a lot of books by then, and I did get the story as a narrative piece. It had a big story, but some of the parts still felt a little bit dis-connected from the entire story narrative. Again, still, so many characters and threaded narratives. Great books. Loved them.
The next time I read it, I was 27. I was an adult at this point, and no, the movies hadn’t come out nor were they even a twinkle in anyones eyes. This time I got it. I followed the narratives all the way through, because I knew the story arcs, and they ALL intertwined with one another. It was great. Characters that I thought were bit-players ended up being central narrative elements. This time I actually enjoyed it, and really didn’t want the story to end.
The next time I read it was over a decade and some later. This time I recognized it for what it was. It truly is one of the greatest narrative stories ever written. The entire mythology entwined with the narrative of momentous events. When I read it this time, I wanted to read every page. When I finished it, I could only reflect that reading it was to see a master at his craft. He was so far ahead of his time.
The movies to me are also pretty good. But the books are special.
zoomster @ #797 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 9:49 pm
Thank you both.
@Dr Fumbles
I get that sentiment with a lot of 1970s British telly. Even though I am Brisbane born and bred, watching 70s BBC output just makes me feel like I know the England of that era. Whether it’s The Good Life, The Goodies, or Doctor Who. It’s just pure nostalgia porn.
Asha says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:38 pm
“Australian MP candidate Katherine Deves praised and promoted Kiwi Farms”
Finally a politician who understands the most important issue facing ordinary Australians: The Dimensional Merge.
Not every day you see Chris-Chan reference in this corner of the internet.
——
Asha,
OMG I just listened to a behind the bastards podcast by Robert Evans on Chris Chan and Kiwi Farms. Crazy, just fucking insane the poor life that person has lived.
Furthermore. Deves should be dis-endorsed, kiwi farms is not a good place. It’s the opposite of a good place, there’s multiple “bullied to a real death’ events that have occurred because of the people who go on those forums.
I can’t see the people of warringah wanting to trade out Zali.
How about a beer each for each Tory that you hate losing their seat?
I think the rules for Saturday night rituals need some refining, BeaglieBoy is right to care about our health lol
I love all these Tolkien analogies, but the Mordor-Rag Media will ensure that Sauron is again triumphant.
alias says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:54 pm
What’s the drinking strategy if the result is uncertain at stumps on Saturday?
中华人民共和国
Haven’t thought that far ahead cobber. If I was 20 years younger I might back up but these old bones – plus I will be drinking on me Pat Malone as me Thai mates cant’t handle the Bundy.
Rakali says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:55 pm
I think the win will be clear fairly early in the night.
The fun then will be watching which of the Orcs get Tealed.
______________________
Will know the direction from about the first hour if it is anything like last time. After watching the AG presentation on the election model, if the swing is on it will be seen early.
BTR Producer, so many classic BBC shows of the 70s.
Fawlty Towers, The Good Life, Are You Being.Served, The Goodies, I Claudius etc
@Evan
Yep. It’s why I subscribe to Britbox. Whenever I need my fix of classic British telly, it never fails.
Goodnight, all True Believers. Time for this Light on the Hill to be extinguished so it can function at work tomorrow.
BTRProducer says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:58 pm
@Dr Fumbles
I get that sentiment with a lot of 1970s British telly. Even though I am Brisbane born and bred, watching 70s BBC output just makes me feel like I know the England of that era. Whether it’s The Good Life, The Goodies, or Doctor Who. It’s just pure nostalgia porn.
中华人民共和国
Dads Army, To the Manor Born, Blakes 7. Have started to watch The Bill from series 1. They smoked at work and went to the pub for lunch!!! I’m up to series 4 1988 – still not much PC.
BTRProducer says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 10:58 pm
@Dr Fumbles
I get that sentiment with a lot of 1970s British telly. Even though I am Brisbane born and bred, watching 70s BBC output just makes me feel like I know the England of that era. Whether it’s The Good Life, The Goodies, or Doctor Who. It’s just pure nostalgia porn.
_______________________
I remember it as i was there then, so yes just nostalgia porn – especially as it is almost universally cold, grey and drizzly, funny things that you remember. Oh and best Dr Who?? Tom Baker
It wasnt voted the greatest work of literature of the 20th Century for nothing…..I have lost count the number of time I have read it….and the movies also….About 6 months ago my daughter and I (9yo) read it together….a few pages each per night….I was waiting all those years for her to be old enough. It was a great experience that we shared
“The movies to me are also pretty good. But the books are special.”
***
The Lord of the Rings movies are some of the best ever made. The Hobbit less so, though still very enjoyable.
The books are true next level masterpieces, probably one of if not thee greatest works of fiction in human history, although that is highly subjective of course.
Yeah night cobbers. I’m hitting the sack too. Drive upcountry tomorrow and Thai roads are rated about the third most dangerous in the world.
Stay safe.
@Upnorth, I would have thought if your Thai mates can handle the Maekhong rice whisky, they’d regard Bundy as a rarefied treat, especially the OP.
Safe driving.
I was asked if I had a valid reason. I answered, “Yes.” And that was it.
We were only talking about Dads Army the other night on here….a great show
zoomster @ #794 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 9:49 pm
The photo doesn’t show for me. Nevertheless thank you for being the conduit between lizzie’s real world loved ones and those of us who only knew but respected her from her online presence. A solemn duty done well.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:07 pm
I remember it as i was there then, so yes just nostalgia porn – especially as it is almost universally cold, grey and drizzly, funny things that you remember. Oh and best Dr Who?? Tom Baker
中华人民共和国
Agree but closely followed by David Tennant IMHO
Night all
Upnorth says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:05 pm
Dads Army, To the Manor Born, Blakes 7. Have started to watch The Bill from series 1. They smoked at work and went to the pub for lunch!!! I’m up to series 4 1988 – still not much PC.
______________________
Thought there would be plenty of PCs in The Bill,
Alright I will get my coat…..
The Good Life has the rather ravishing Penelope Keith is some quite amazing frocks, a guilty pleasure and, of course Paul Eddington. They did well out of it getting To the Manor Born and Yes Minister
“Furthermore. Deves should be dis-endorsed, kiwi farms is not a good place. It’s the opposite of a good place, there’s multiple “bullied to a real death’ events that have occurred because of the people who go on those forums.”
Yeah, I don’t think there’s anything inherently bad about, for example, using the phrase “clown world” as it’s a general meme at this point, but Kiwifarms isn’t just another edgy meme forum. They are outright evil sociopaths, present themselves as evil, and explicitly conspire to provoke suicide in their targets.
They’re basically terrorists and that’s not even counting the actual terrorism they’ve been associated with.
@BeaglieBoy says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:09 pm
We were only talking about Dads Army the other night on here….a great show
________________________-
Dads Army, or more correctly titled The Howard era LNP cabinet
alias says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:08 pm
@Upnorth, I would have thought if your Thai mates can handle the Maekhong rice whisky, they’d regard Bundy as a rarefied treat, especially the OP.
Safe driving.
中华人民共和国
Strangely no. They like it don’t get me wrong, but it does give them a touch up the next day. But I am the same on their Rice Whiskey. When I go to China now a take a bottle of Bundy. When the Maotai comes out I counter with Bundy. It has a levelling effect.
Night again hehe
Late Riser says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 11:08 pm
“In theory, you need to provide a valid reason but it’s difficult to find a list of reasons.”
I was asked if I had a valid reason. I answered, “Yes.” And that was it.
________________________
I would say that would be an ecumenical matter
The Don River?
My favourite clip of Dads Army:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr_v_SqJNjA
Upnorth @ #851 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 10:14 pm
Surely the rule is consume one serving of drink of choice each time AG calls a seat lost by the LNP?!
It’s Timesays:
All set ready to go!
Dave from Wagga @10:47pm
In response to your post about Riverina…
I’ve been in and out of Trail St during the 2 weeks of prepoll handing out for Labor. Sorry I missed you though I don’t know you anyway. 🙂
Did the (hopeful) Nats leader look a bit happier? I’m sure there was some fun banter between DH and McM.
It has been interesting. From when I’ve been there. From my very rough observation of HTV’s taken…
Nats only taken about 20%. Labor only 5%. All parties 35%. None 40%.
That 75% has caused McM to be standing out there wondering. Not the usual state of affairs. Especially that darn 40%
What are those 40% doing? They’ve been across ages and genders too so hard to read. Don’t get me wrong I’m as on tenterhooks to find out as anyone but it’s not my job on the line.
“I’ve made up my mind” are chilling words. 70% 2PP in 2019 might be ‘business as usual’ which may you see on camera on Sat night from McM if that is the case again. All smiles and never in doubt.
I’ll remember the 7pm nights on a cold May night on Trail St though where that veneer of confidence was stripped bare.
Democracy is great.
Rakali at 10.09 re ‘virtual pissup’
As stated earlier, the Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club has no recorded entrance form or requirements.
A ‘virtual pissup’ (as you term it) may, or may not happen, here there or anywhere, on Saturday evening.
So, drink anything you like. Or not. Eat anything like. Or not. Post. Or not.
Although I’m sure the ‘virtual’ will be more ‘real’ if you do post.
After all, it’s the Constitution…it’s Mabo…it’s the vibe…
The polls are open early because of Covid, anyone can vote early, they never asked my wife and I why.
OK.. Saturday night plan…
If SCOMO is clearly tossed .. walk down corner and back cheering “theres a scummo in the garbage dear albo dear albo” with refreshment Corona in hand sipping frequently.
If above and QLD.Ryan goes red or green … jog down the corner and back with shirt off cheering as above and skolling Corona on the way.
If above and Libby wins Ryan for the Greens .. sprint down the corner and back in undies, attempt numerous cartwheels and a John Cleese crazy walk .. skoll 2 Coronas in the process .. cheering whatever the heck comes to mind!
MikeK @ #945 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 9:40 pm
No, they are not.
They always have pre-poll booths, but they actually opened this time a week later than last election.
Freya at 11.00
We all know what happened to Sauron.
The Cracks of Doom await…
Yeah Mike I’m surprised some people are being asked still if they have a good reason to vote early, I got my ballot papers without being asked to provide a reason. The pre-polls actually opened a week earlier in 2019. Technically it seems you’re still meant to have a good reason to vote early but it doesn’t seem to be enforced much at all. I think state elections tend to have more relaxed rules on early voting so with that influence it’s become more accepted at federal elections.
MikeK @ #945 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 11:40 pm
Prepolling has been available for decades. Years ago you needed a reason; then after a while they just didn’t care. there seems to be some pressure from government/LNP that AEC should be enforcing that it can only be done for a valid reason. “Do you have a valid reason? Yes.” seems to satisfy that requirement in a two finger salute by the AEC to their political masters.