The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
Firefox says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 3:27 pm
“Fire-Fox”
***
In solidarity with the hyphenated…
中华人民共和国
Good on you cobber. Keep up your sense of humor! I admire that. You’re not a bad matey.
“Fire fox, if you could let me know where the greens expect to pick up 75 seats in the lower house i will give you that the Labor claim that only a vote for labor will stop the liberals is false.”
***
Labor’s false claim was this…
The last time Labor were in government federally, 2010-13, they were in a minority government with the Greens and independents. The very fact that the Gillard/Bandt/Ind government existed disproves Labor’s false claims, as does the fact that the Greens have repeatedly and categorically ruled out working with the Coalition.
WWP
The government does a lot more than provide welfare to the homeless the disabled and single mums.
“Good on you cobber. Keep up your sense of humor! I admire that. You’re not a bad matey.”
***
One has to in these trying times! Cheers mate, back at you 🙂
There was a gotcha attempt on Albanese at the NPC. The question was along the lines of ‘Will one of the first things you do if elected is pick up the phone with Xi?’
The sneaky attempt here is to paint Albanese soft on China.
Albanese basically ignored the question and talked up the QUAD meeting in Tokyo.
Labor has already signaled that with 14 demands and a swingeing set of trade punishments still in place, the ball is in China’s court to make the first move. This shows the sort of maturity in foreign policy management that has entirely eluded Morrison&Co.
(IMO, we can safely leave the servile groveling to the Greens.)
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/18/china-seeks-to-reset-relationship-with-australia-after-election
Freya Stark – I’m disinclined to make predictions, but one thing I am sure of:
Steggall will win easily, on first preferences. Deves will be consigned to the dustbin of history (SAD) or the AAT depending on who win government.
That’ll get the R/W culture warriors into a lather.
Of course Albo will talk to China. Why wouldn’t he? Not bound by the promises or policy of the defeated government.
Defence spending has gone up from 24bn in 2013 – 48 bn today – that’s a big peace dividend to be had if we can have better relations with China as a neutral.
What kind of numbers would we need to see for a Seselja/Pocock victory? Are they that realistic?
Boerwar @ #154 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:37 pm
Without doubt, the destruction of our international reputation is Morrison’s worst failing.
Misinformation like Terri Butler’s is a mad tactic since it inevitably pins Labor into a corner.
Gillard’s handling of minority government was masterful – by a taking a rational approach to the crossbench (since the priority was remaining the government and not the opposition, rather than weird dogma), she was hugely successful at negotiating her agenda through minority government.
In instead copying David Bartlett’s disastrous campaign tactics from Tasmania in 2010 – Labor leave themselves no good options in minority government. They’ll be left with either a) instantly having to eat crow and break repeated campaign promises, b) somersaulting around like Bartlett in an unsuccessful attempt to have the Libs govern in minority instead and then having to eat crow anyway, c) agreeing to provide supply to a Liberal government, or d) forcing the country back to a new election because they refused to take office, which is unlikely to be a votewinner.
The Chinese must be pissing themselves laughing at the Coalition. Talk Big. Spend Big. Brag Big.
Results:
A phenomenal waste of money.
The Chinese having basing opportunities all along the Solomons chain.
The 14 demands are in place.
There has been virgorous trade punishment targeting Morrison and Joyce’s supporters.
Plus, EVERYONE has forgotten about the Uigher Genocide and the the Wuhan lab complex where Covid 19 started.
Firefox says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 2:52 pm
“part of the Teal vote comes from strategically minded Labor voters.”
***
……..Should some of the Teals be successful and go on to be good representatives of their constituents, as the likes of Helen Haines and Zali Steggall have, then Labor and especially the Liberals may find it very difficult to get those voters back again.
********
I think you’re probably right about that, but the point is Labor was never winning those seats.
There is a small chance that Teal success may lead over the next decade to new centre right party that displaces the LNP (UAP to Liberal took 7 years in the 40’s) but that just means that it’s not a perfect result.
I’ll settle for LNP members losing their seats now and take the chance that their replacements form a more centrist and electorally successful opponent to Labor in 2 or 3 elections time.
This seems to me the perfect example of you and your party’s capacity to let the lack of perfection be an argument for not acting in favour of good outcomes.
Nice to see Rebecca back.
Last election she was in high dudgeon about the Kozzie national traditional horse paddock.
How dare scientists condemn the wrecking of one of the world’s premier national parks?
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 3:42 pm
…the the Wuhan lab complex where Covid 19 started.
________________
There’s no proof of that. You sound a bit Trumpy.
Snappy Tom say:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 2:56 pm
[‘Mavis at 2.43 re predictably-biased behaviour from Liberal hack appointed by mates to AAT…
I’m unfamiliar with the ‘code’ – does it clearly specify penalties for beaches or just say ‘don’t do it again’?’]
I don’t think so. The behaviour of AAT members would be similar
to what’s expected by judges. Counselling seems to be the only
punishment, if you can call it that, not forgetting that she pulled the
same stunt at the last election.
Call me old fashioned but I don’t think that trashing 5,000 jobs in the ACT is going to help Seselja.
@Rebecca
A cynical person might say that Butler’s misinformation has more to do with wanting to dissuade a Greens threat to her own seat rather than to do with the formation of Government.
There is no doubt about it. Between Trump and Xi, Morrison was played like a sucker. The US is hoovering up our China markets.
Morrison’s a fool.
andrewmck @ #162 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:42 pm
There will be breakaways from Labor as well if the fossil fuel unions continue to do their part in propping up a socially/economically destructive industry.
Tow major recent studies have concluded that the virus did not originate in a lab. Why do people only respect the work of scientists when it reinforces their existing prejudices?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/coronavirus-wuhan-market-chinese-lab-studies
My wife just received a text from Penny Wong.
I think there is a worry that if too many normal Labor voters choose Pocock, then it becomes a three way contest and Labor could lose. There is probably only a small chance of this happening but Labor is obviously taking precautions.
“Morrison already legislated something, and we couldn’t possibly change legislation he put in” is not the great excuse that some here think it is when it comes to incredibly irresponsible tax cuts for rich people at the expense of things that neeed the money. The commitment to the tax cuts taking effect if they win government makes it just as much a Labor decision as if it was their idea originally, and mocks all their pledges about not being able to fund other badly needed things because the Budget won’t allow it.
Looks like Adv A is inadvertently doing Labor a favour by trying to suppress the vote for Pocock!
Rebecca @ #158 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:42 pm
The Greens have already committed to backing Labor if there’s a hung parliament. So it really doesn’t.
And it’s not misinformation, it’s spin. There actually is a difference. The argument is that voting for anyone but Labor in Griffith increases the chances of the LNP winning the seat, because if Labor falls behind the Greens on 3CP, then the Greens may end up losing against the LNP, where Labor would have won.
AE Forecasts demonstrates the point. https://www.aeforecasts.com/seat/2022fed/regular/griffith
If Labor is in 2CP against LNP, then it’s very unlikely that the LNP would beat Labor (something like 3%). However, if Greens are in the 2CP against LNP, it’s substantially higher chance (something like 15%).
It’s spin, without a doubt, and I would much rather Labor not say things like that, but they’re not attacking the Greens, they’re just saying “you need to vote Labor”.
On the other hand, the Greens have been going hard on the attack against Labor in the seat, painting them as “just as bad as the Liberals”, which is patently false.
@GlenO:
Well that would be up to what preference Labor voters indicate in terms of Liberal vs Green, now wouldn’t it?
Rebecca @ #173 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:50 pm
Albanese is placed in an impossible position by the neo-libs of the Labor right, primarily Jim Chalmers, to justify maintaining the stage 3 tax cuts.
‘citizen says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 3:47 pm
My wife just received a text from Penny Wong.
I think there is a worry that if too many normal Labor voters choose Pocock, then it becomes a three way contest and Labor could lose. There is probably only a small chance of this happening but Labor is obviously taking precautions.’
======================
Indeed. The siren call of ‘strategic voting’ could lead to unfortunate consequences. See if you can spot P1 and Rex:
https://www.awesomestories.com/asset/view/Odysseus-and-the-Sirens
Rex Douglas says:
Albanese is placed in an impossible position by the neo-libs of the Labor right, primarily Jim Chalmers, to justify maintaining the stage 3 tax cuts.
____________
It is incredible they have backed it. It is fairly atrocious policy. I hope they change their minds.
Ticktock @ #176 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:52 pm
Traditional Labor voters putting Pocock at #1 just have to put Zed dead last.
@nath:
No kidding. $20+ billion a year pissed away at the rich.
My confidence in them to reverse course is minimal.
No party (of government) is going to reverse legislated tax cuts, or go to an election proposing to do so.
Ticktock @ #174 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:52 pm
Yes.
And it’s also not entirely unexpected. People who switch their vote from LNP to Labor are likely to put LNP above Greens (unless they’re eco-minded, of course), while those who switch from Labor to Greens are likely to put Labor above LNP.
What that means is that, if Greens were to get a strong enough swing to them to get ahead of Labor on 2CP, and Labor got a swing from the LNP, then it would result in a greater proportion of Labor preferences flowing to the LNP than usual.
Firefox @ #152 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:33 pm
Did you actually read this? It’s addressed to people deciding between voting 1 Labor or 1 Greens-2 LNP.
@ Freya Stark
You estimate 3 independents and then name 4?
Glen: The link you posted shows either Labor or Greens romping it in against the Liberals in a 2CP race, which is what I’d expect anyway. So it doesn’t even stack up in Butler’s seat, let alone in the broader context some Labor types have been trying it on with.
As you note, the Greens have pledged to support Labor in a minority government situation, so the only context in which Greens MPs and minority government would lead to Labor not taking office is if Labor got into some Bartlett-style ridiculousness and chose to stay in opposition.
@Rex Douglas:
That comment thread was about the seat of Griffith and whether 1 Labor voters would preference Greens over Liberal to the same extent that 1 Greens voters would preference Labor over Liberal.
Fairly confident the Liberals will get at least one vote less than in 2019:
“Brittany Higgins@BrittHiggins_·
6h
Shout out to the optimistic @LiberalAus volunteer who tried to hand me a ‘how to vote’ flyer at the @MoAD_Canberra pre-poll today. “
nath and Rexy, the anything but Labor duo, agreeing with each other whole heartedly. But will they let TickTack and Rebecca join the fun?
LOL.
I’ll be putting greens first in the senate in qld to get rid of hanson.
Why does a Labor voter vote teal? To get rid of an LNP representative. This is exactly what I did in Curtin, on the grounds that if Labor comes second to teal Third, then LNP wins, but if teal comes second to Labor third, then Teal wins and LNP doesn’t. My preference is for a teal over LNP and by voting -teal, Labor, LNP -thats what I get, but voting -Labor, teal, LNP – I could get LNP. It looks like several thousand in Curtin feel the same. Can’t wait for Saturday Night.
nath @ #179 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:55 pm
If Jim Chalmers had had an easier path into parliament as a Lib he would have taken it.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 3:46 pm
There is no doubt about it. Between Trump and Xi, Morrison was played like a sucker. The US is hoovering up our China markets.
Morrison’s a fool.
中华人民共和国
Absolutely. Coking Coal landing in China for Steel Production (to make the supports for renewables) fetching North of $US650 Per tonne FOB. Ex US And Canadian Ports. Imagine the Carbon Trail on that!
Thermal Coal above $US400 ex Newcastle with talk Indonesia may again ban exports as domestic supply is short.
The cost of steel (and renewables) will increase rapidly. Just saying, and I know others here will slam me (fossil fuel cartel etc) But facts are the facts
“And it’s not misinformation, it’s spin. There actually is a difference.”
***
Terri Butler’s post claims that if someone votes for “Greens/LNP” (that in itself makes no sense) and “Labor doesn’t win 76 seats” then “Morrison stays PM”. This is completely false. It is misinformation. It is a desperate lie.
“That’ll get the R/W culture warriors into a lather.”
Maybe, but its a trend that is making life difficult for people trying to actually negotiate agreements. Its a no brainer for employers. There are so few people that it affects that it makes them look progressive at effectively no $ cost. But…….the reputational cost of even appearing to consider it may not be such a good idea, or that recognition of trans rights, wants and needs can be done differently, can be huge if some of the idiot fringe of the trans-activists get hold of it and apply the principle that anyone who doesn’t enthusiastically agree with all aspects of the particular dogma they are pushing on any given day is transphobic. 🙁
And, to a lot of people affected by new agreements its seen as a slap in the face. My workplace, people can have 5 days Domestic Violence Leave, 12 days Sick leave…….. transactivists are proposing 30 days paid Gender Leave a year. 🙁
Better solution is to improve Sick / Personal /Carers leave for all and explicitly state THAT can be used for Gender Transition matters. Much more fair and doesn’t push buttons in the wider membership when you are trying to get them behind a proposed agreement.
Boerwar at 3:46 pm
The Septics did not even wait for the ashes of Australian Chinese export markets to cool before, like the good mates they are, stepping in to replace us. All to get SfM a pat on the head and a ‘whose a good boy’ from Trump and crew. Sucked in or what !
Not that it may matter. All the signs are pointing to bigly problems with global food supply this year. So as long as we do not have a disastrous time in the Ag. sector they’ll be raking it in. Which probably means Barnyard and the Nats will end up swimming in donations 🙁
You mentioned Kherson yesterday and its possible future . It looks like it is definitely on the Russian ‘keeper’ list. The Russian deputy PM dropped in for a visit there yesterday.
Roger Miller @ #191 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:58 pm
Good logic.
I did not face a difficult choice. Seselja had been paid a fortune to secure the Solomons as Minister for the Pacific and since he had fallen flat on his face in that role, he deserved last place. Then there are all the Canberra functions that are being dragged into useless holes like Orange by Seselja’s little helpers. And then there are the rorts. And then there are the divisive religious extremism touted by Seselja. And then there is the really nasty, nasty stuff being put out by Advance Australia on Seselja’s behalf… and then there the cuts of 5,000 APS staff when services to clients such as desperate veterans, aged care workers, flood victims and fire victims…
Ticktock @ #182 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:56 pm
There’s always more than one way to skin a cat. I’m sure there’s been a fair bit of thought into alternative ways to make this cohort pay their way in the longer term