The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
Rex Douglas says:
If Jim Chalmers had had an easier path into parliament as a Lib he would have taken it.
_____
Perhaps. But I’m pretty certain one of his great ambitions in life is to be praised in The Australian.
nath says Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 3:47 pm
Dr Karl’s latest Shirtloads of Science podcast has a very good interview with Professor Holmes on the origin of COVID-19: https://shirtloadsofscience.libsyn.com/sos-289-eh-covid-origin
“I’ll be putting greens first in the senate in qld to get rid of hanson.”
***
Yes! Really hope she gets the boot. We’d still be left with Malcolm Roberts from PHON in the Senate for another 3 years but hopefully the numbers will make him irrelevant in most cases.
@Bellwether
I removed Steggall from my projected Independent win list and predict that there will be a total of three independents. I made a mistake before. Now this doesn’t change my primary prediction or overall seat prediction. Poking at corners does not change reality, perhaps your energy is better used to shhh.
imacca: “Gender Leave” isn’t a thing and Labor types regurgitating crazy Sky/Murdoch stuff is gross. The point of transition leave is that, like maternity leave, it’s not something that gets done in a week or two, and blaming trans people for the union’s failure to negotiate better domestic violence leave is disgusting.
Urgent note sent to federal public service staff in S.A. that they need paid workers for Saturday as they cannot find minimum staff for the booths especially in rural S.A.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 3:58 pm
nath and Rexy, the anything but Labor duo, agreeing with each other whole heartedly. But will they let TickTack and Rebecca join the fun?
_______
Do you cloak yourself in Labor in order to get away with some of the utter conservative rubbish you carry on with? The Wuhan Lab theory for example being straight out of the playbook of Republican Trumpists.
@ajm:
And my confidence in Labor to actually prosecute any of those arguments or implement any of those policies is approximately the same as my confidence in Vladimir Putin to suddenly decide that he’s going to pull out of Ukraine totally and make a large donation to help the rebuilding effort before taking a jet to the Hague to volunteer himself for war crimes trials.
poroti
Yep for Kherson. It is the old ‘facts on the ground’ rounine.
Yep for farm profits. Could be a bumper year.
I was talking to a rellie who has 1300 acres of mixed broad acre crops in. Soil nicely moist for the planting. Up it all came. Got some nice gentle rain when it was all up. Was checking his phone practically by the hour as commodity prices for his produce assumed casino-like proportions. Then he looked at me and he grinned. One good storm a week before harvest and she’s all totally fucked! He never calls Mr Andrews anything other than ‘Dictator Dan’.
Karen Middleton (Albanese’s biographer) has made the observation previously and Laura Tingle gave Albanese an opening to make the point with a question at the NPC about the tax cut legislation.
Albanese responded with this.
1. We will implement everything we have promised to implement in the next three years.
2. When we have demonstrated that we are open, transparent, fair and a government of our word we will go to the following election from a different base.
In other words, Albanese is playing the long game. He is already planning for the next election.
I can understand why his infuriates Liberal, Nationals and Greens hacks because they are desperate to frot their small things.
Rex Douglas @ #178 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:56 pm
That’s simply not how it works, and shows a lack of understanding of the Senate election system.
If enough Labor voters switch their vote to Pocock, such that they end up below Seselja in quota at the wrong time, then Labor can get knocked out. It’s not like in the House, where the only factor is whether you get into the 2CP.
The issue lies with the right-wing minors. The preference flow to Labor from them is fairly decent, typically. But if Labor got knocked out, those who put Labor ahead of Liberals among the right-wing minors will likely have their preference flow to Liberals, instead.
So it’s entirely possible for Pocock/Seselja if there’s too much “strategic voting”.
Truth be told, I actually wonder if there’s need for strategic voting at all. Last poll I saw had Pocock on 21%, Labor on 27%, and Seselja on 25%, with Labor having dropped from 39.35%, a drop of 12.35%. If we pretend that all of that has gone to Pocock, and 80% of it is strategic voting, then almost 10% goes back to Labor, leaving Labor on 37% and Pocock on 11%. Greens would also be on 11%, and Rubenstein would be on 6%.
Labor on 37% would be 1.11 quotas, and the extra 0.11 quotas (or about 3.7%) would flow mainly to Pocock due to HTV, putting Pocock ahead of the Greens a little. Then Rubenstein would get knocked out, and most Rubenstein voters would probably put Pocock ahead of the Greens, so Pocock pushes even further forwards. Greens put Pocock on their HTV, and would then have most of theirs flow to Pocock, too. As a ballpark, let’s look at what Pocock would have by now – 11%+3.7%+11%+6% = 31.7%. Obviously, this ignores leakage – but leakage runs both directions.
Now add other minors – Sustainable, Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice and Australian Progressives would likely flow to Pocock, too.
I just don’t see the need for strategic voting.
Just replace Wall Street with Canberra and Bob’s your uncle!
Rebecca @ #184 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:57 pm
Would you be comfortable with a 15% chance of the LNP winning the seat?
I’m not even that comfortable with a 3% chance.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 4:05 pm
Urgent note sent to federal public service staff in S.A. that they need paid workers for Saturday as they cannot find minimum staff for the booths especially in rural S.A.’
===============================
Did they cap public service pay? Will they sack 5,000 of them? Did they treat them to nine years of abject shit at the hands of ministerial staffers and contractors? Tell them to GAGF.
“imacca: “Gender Leave” isn’t a thing and Labor types regurgitating crazy Sky/Murdoch stuff is gross. The point of transition leave is that, like maternity leave, it’s not something that gets done in a week or two, and blaming trans people for the union’s failure to negotiate better domestic violence leave is disgusting”
I’m probably going to regret engaging on this 🙁 ….however….
““Gender Leave” isn’t a thing and Labor types regurgitating crazy Sky/Murdoch stuff is gross. ”
If you were in a position like me to actually see whats proposed for and help develop a workplace log of claim then you would know that it is actually a thing. Being handled quietly for now to try and find a broadly acceptable way through it, but with the Coles thing it will probably get more public and polarized.
“and blaming trans people for the union’s failure to negotiate better domestic violence leave is disgusting”
which i didn’t actually do.
And, i blame “trans-people” not at all. Only the idiot fringe who have latched onto the sillier and extreme end of the trans community.
Pull your head in Rebecca.
Fortunately Australia is going to be protected by the Greens’ Light Mobile Force.
So all irreplaceables will be fully protected!
Boerwar @ #209 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:11 pm
Odds on Chalmers spends the 3 yrs building the case for a GST hike.
Firefox @ #192 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:00 pm
Wait, you mean they exaggerated a bit to make a point?
Gee, how inappropriate. I’m so glad the Greens don’t do that… (oh, wait, “Labor and the Liberals are the same”…)
Just love how some people pretend to know what goes on in other people’s heads or what motivates their choices. What they are basically doing when they put forward such nonsense is saying what ‘they’ would do in the same circumstances.
A general observation.
“Rex Douglas says:
Albanese is placed in an impossible position by the neo-libs of the Labor right, primarily Jim Chalmers, to justify maintaining the stage 3 tax cuts.”
I’ve seen rhetoric on the third stage tax cuts Labor backed. Quite simply Labor is playing small target to get into government before it can change it. And research has shown that (workers, Labour hire, etc) don’t actually have a problem with it. They more have a problem with people below them on getting benefits on centrelink. Its not the big vote getter some on the Left think it is.
The fact Rex Douglas is claiming Jim Chalmers is a neo-liberal. And at the same time passionatly backing these teals as the best way for a progressive government who politically won’t go near unions is quite laughable.
Rex Douglas says:
‘…
Odds on Chalmers spends the 3 yrs building the case for a GST hike.’
===================
Anything but Labor Rex strikes again. Drops his one line dead cat on the table and he speeds off on his 50cc scooter.
I think people in Canberra are just glad that their votes may actually count.
Ipsos woman on ABC TV Afternoon Briefing says their last poll will be released tomorrow (Thursday) night.
BK says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 3:03 pm
“I will be giving Rex Patrick my second preference vote for the Senate.”
Agree. Actually done already in pre-poll.
I looked at Nick X’s website. Big on him, nothing on policies. He has done a few things on twitter tho’.
nath says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 4:03 pm
Rex Douglas says:
If Jim Chalmers had had an easier path into parliament as a Lib he would have taken it.
_____
Perhaps. But I’m pretty certain one of his great ambitions in life is to be praised in The Australian.
———
Or to be listed in the Parliament of Australia Outsized Aural Appendage Hall of Fame…
Boerwar @ #222 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:17 pm
We need a GST hike if the states are going to remain solvent (or to get them to give up health or education or something)
Boerwar at 4:06 pm
OMG. That would be so bloody heartbreaking.
Thanks alias! So a double poll bonanza on Thursday evening potentially, or perhaps a wait till Friday evening for Newspoll.
Hope all are well – it’s easy to fret over the election, but taking some time out to just enjoy yourself and not overly think things is highly recommended.
@Bonnie:
Or for the Feds to just pay the States more money to run their governments – the Federal government is a monetary sovereign, unlike the States.
Crikey has a list of Morrison lies told during the campaign:
https://www.crikey.com.au/campaign-of-lies-and-falsehoods/?utm_source=pushengage&utm_medium=push&utm_campaign=pn
@Itep … it is a bit.
I’ve noticed a few of my Pocock-backing friends either soften a little and/or sharing Labor material about the risk of strategic voting.
The position is a pretty sound one from my perspective. If you want Katy and Pocock – the best way is to make sure Katy has an excess to send to Pocock, because it’s highly unlikely the reverse will be true.
My votes will be below the line 1. Katy 2. Pocock… last Zed.
Bonnie
Nah. Tax the billionaires, doncha know? Click more money into existence with the wonders of MMT, doncha know? Why? Because THIS time the extreme left ideologues have finally got it right. This time it is different.
Ticktock @ #230 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:21 pm
Yeah, that’s effectively what the GST is. Where do you think the Commonwealth should get the additional money from to pay them more if not from additional consumption charges?
Rex
“ If Jim Chalmers had had an easier path into parliament as a Lib he would have taken it.”
F#*k off. What a totally brain dead comment.
‘jt1983 says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 4:23 pm
@Itep … it is a bit.
I’ve noticed a few of my Pocock-backing friends either soften a little and/or sharing Labor material about the risk of strategic voting.
The position is a pretty sound one from my perspective. If you want Katy and Pocock – the best way is to make sure Katy has an excess to send to Pocock, because it’s highly unlikely the reverse will be true.
My votes will be below the line 1. Katy 2. Pocock… last Zed.’
===================
Exactemundo. Vote strategic. Vote Labor 1.
Lynchpin @ #235 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:24 pm
+1
@Bonnie:
The Federal government spends Australian dollars into existence and taxes them back out of existence.
There is no need to tie federal government spending to specific taxation measures, and hence no need to increase the size of a regressive tax such as the GST in order to “fund” further government expenditure directed toward the States.
Urgent action is required on climate and a Federal ICAC is desperately needed.
The only way to secure those two things is to ensure that Morrison’s government is removed on Saturday. This is by far the most important election we have had for decades. Putting the certain economic collapse that inaction on Climate will bring about; democracy is in the cross hairs. We do not want to become another US, which is very nearly a failed state. ICAC now!
This narrowing of the polls, while inevitable, certainly puts an awful lot at stake.
-not trying to be too alarmist…
“Wait, you mean they exaggerated a bit to make a point?
Gee, how inappropriate. I’m so glad the Greens don’t do that… (oh, wait, “Labor and the Liberals are the same”…)”
***
No, I meant what I said – they lied. The claim is simply false. It’s the same kind of nonsense that the Labor Right go on with all the time.
The unfortunate truth is that when it comes to many of the big issues, Labor and the Coalition are on a unity ticket. Examples of this are giving tax cuts to the rich, leaving people on JobSeeker and the Pension in poverty, fracking the Beetaloo Basin, abusing innocent asylum seekers, and the list goes on.
Rex Douglas @ #218 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:14 pm
I think they will make enough from making multinationals pay their fair share of tax and stripping away the rorts and pork to not need to consider that.
No worries ltep. I think I read here somewhere that Newspoll is likely to be Friday evening so they’ve got the results on Election Day papers.
Agreed on doing stuff to clear the head. Feels like the longest week in history.
‘GlenO says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 4:11 pm
Rex Douglas @ #178 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:56 pm
Traditional Labor voters putting Pocock at #1 just have to put Zed dead last.
That’s simply not how it works, and shows a lack of understanding of the Senate election system.
If enough Labor voters switch their vote to Pocock, such that they end up below Seselja in quota at the wrong time, then Labor can get knocked out. It’s not like in the House, where the only factor is whether you get into the 2CP.
The issue lies with the right-wing minors. The preference flow to Labor from them is fairly decent, typically. But if Labor got knocked out, those who put Labor ahead of Liberals among the right-wing minors will likely have their preference flow to Liberals, instead.
So it’s entirely possible for Pocock/Seselja if there’s too much “strategic voting”.
Truth be told, I actually wonder if there’s need for strategic voting at all. Last poll I saw had Pocock on 21%, Labor on 27%, and Seselja on 25%, with Labor having dropped from 39.35%, a drop of 12.35%. If we pretend that all of that has gone to Pocock, and 80% of it is strategic voting, then almost 10% goes back to Labor, leaving Labor on 37% and Pocock on 11%. Greens would also be on 11%, and Rubenstein would be on 6%.
Labor on 37% would be 1.11 quotas, and the extra 0.11 quotas (or about 3.7%) would flow mainly to Pocock due to HTV, putting Pocock ahead of the Greens a little. Then Rubenstein would get knocked out, and most Rubenstein voters would probably put Pocock ahead of the Greens, so Pocock pushes even further forwards. Greens put Pocock on their HTV, and would then have most of theirs flow to Pocock, too. As a ballpark, let’s look at what Pocock would have by now – 11%+3.7%+11%+6% = 31.7%. Obviously, this ignores leakage – but leakage runs both directions.
Now add other minors – Sustainable, Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice and Australian Progressives would likely flow to Pocock, too.
I just don’t see the need for strategic voting.’
====================
Pocock’s HTV is 1,2 and sort yourself out. The Greens do not give Pocock 2nd preference in their HTV.
The whole GST is a state tax thing is smoke and mirrors flim flam. Feds take it, Feds pay it out.
Mark the Ballot’s forecast from yesterday:
– forecast ALP 2PP: 52.7 (a favoured 2PP for Federal Labor)
-forecast seats: ALP 86, coalition 59, others 7
– probability estimates:- “Labor has an 88.3 per cent probability of forming majority government. There is an 8.7 per cent probability of a hung parliament. The Coalition has a 2.9 per cent probability of forming majority government.”
His commentary about his forecasts compared to others:
“My model is more favourable to the Labor party than the other models out there:
Buckley’s and None sees Labor winning 79 seats, the Coalition winning 65 seats, and 7 MPs sitting on the crossbench resulting in a ALP government.
The Australian Election Forecasts sees Labor on 81 seats, the Coalition on 59 seats, and 11 on the crossbench in the next parliament.
Ethan and Rebekah at Armarium Interreta see Labor on 81 seats, the Coalition on 60 and 9 others in the next Parliament.”
https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/2022/05/a-quick-and-dirty-bayesian-model-of.html?m=1
c@T
The Greens are on to making multinationals pay more as well. The Greens have that in in case anyone wakes up to the fact that the billionaire tax is going to fall flat on its face in doing anything other than fooling the Greens’ kiddies.
Labor has it in as $1.9 billion increase in revenue.
IMO, we should be so lucky.
So Essential moved from 49-45 (6 undecided) to 48-46. And PVO got 51-49 by splitting the still-present 6% undecided equally? In other words, the poll moved 1% in Libs’ favour. How is this cause for concern?
Meanwhile, Resolve added 400 extra respondents through phone polling and got a very different result to usual.
Some degree of narrowing is expected. Although it’s possible the Labor vote was always soft, just like the Libs claimed.
Anyway, hope is not lost. With the recent polling combined with the commentary around far right parties and where they’ll poll well + where their prefs will go – I think the best course of action is to take a step back and relax. This election is impossible to predict so let’s wait and see what happens.
Boerwar @ #222 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:17 pm
And you just know Rex Douglas will just drone on and on and on with the same line for the next 3 years if Labor do get into government. Like he has the special expertise which gives him this blinding insight. 😆
I just asked Bluey when he was going to post his bulletin today cos I was anxious about all the movements. He told me he is waiting for the huge dirt file drop from the Sky.