The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
This is the Albanese NPC address today for the people that may have missed it.
https://youtu.be/TMVZR610tZ8
A whopper of a lie told by Birmingham and Morrison – (Guardian at 16:11)
Anyone calling Chalmers a neoliberal clearly doesn’t know what the word means.
Chalmers is about as neoliberal as Albo is a communist and Morrison is a great statement.
ajm @ #185 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 3:57 pm
Right. Because that would be a thing.
“Pocock’s HTV is 1,2 and sort yourself out. The Greens do not give Pocock 2nd preference in their HTV.”
***
Pocock is 3rd on the Greens HTV, behind only Kim, which means he may as well be 2nd as she will probably drop out before he does.
He really is a ruthless killer at heart.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/18/pm-dismisses-need-for-more-measures-to-limit-covid-deaths-suggests-australians-dying-with-not-of-the-virus
Guys, I focus on the primary vote. Essential has Labor back at 36% which soothes my nerves somewhat. Hopefully that 31% in the Resolve poll is an outlier
https://twitter.com/aeforecasts/status/1526803086689603584?s=20&t=B5KWQqKfm2IBWlzg7PLEww
A good read RE the recent close polls
‘Firefox says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 4:35 pm
“Pocock’s HTV is 1,2 and sort yourself out. The Greens do not give Pocock 2nd preference in their HTV.”
========================
Excellent point. We agree. The Greens do not give Pocock 2nd.
Bluey a swing voter ?
.
The Moody Octopus : Reversible
BREAKING: Finland and Sweden submit applications to join NATO
‘Google it, mate’: Here’s what you need to know about Greens leader Adam Bandt
Adam Bandt has made headlines this election campaign for proposing a tax on billionaires, telling a journalist to “Google it, mate,” and for presenting the Greens as an alternative to the traditional Australian two-party system that he says supports coal and gas.
Mr Bandt, who was elected party leader in 2020 following the resignation of Richard Di Natale for family reasons, has continued to highlight the Greens’ focus on environment and social justice issues.
On Tuesday, Mr Bandt reinforced his ambition to tackle the climate crisis if the Greens clinch the balance of power in a hung parliament.
“Now, in the next parliament … we can have discussions about how quickly to get out of coal and gas. How we do it in a way that supports workers in communities in affected areas. And we’ve got a comprehensive plan to do that,” Mr Bandt told ABC Radio National’s Patricia Karvelas.
“But we think everyone should be able to agree: you can’t put the fire out while pouring petrol on it. ”
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/google-it-mate-heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-greens-leader-adam-bandt/uvob2xu8z
poroti
I asked the pool of black ink about this and Bluey told me he had cuzzes in WA and for you to enjoy what’s left of your day.
C@tmomma @ #248 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:33 pm
He has that holier than thou attitude of most Greens.
hazza4257 @ #260 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:37 pm
The Silver Bodgie
True. It is an electric scooter.
“This one should get you banned, IMO.”
Yeah. Repeating those rumors from back before 2000 which, actually, there was never any evidence for apart from Canberra gossip. Maybe a bit close to the wind in the current times. 🙁
Firefox @ #240 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:27 pm
It isn’t false, it’s exaggerated. Voting for the Greens in the wrong places could see the Coalition win a seat that would otherwise have been won by Labor, due to how the electoral system works.
And I’m sorry, but they’re not on a unity ticket. There are certain topics that Labor have supported, and shouldn’t have, like the stage 3 cuts, for example… but the list of things on which Labor is distinctly and undoubtedly better is a much longer list, beginning with having actual intent on reducing emissions.
And before you shoot back about it not being good enough and bring up certain things (because we’ve been through this before), let me point out four things:
1. A 43% target for 2030 requires real government action, whereas 28% is where things would go without government action. So it’s clearly better than the Coalition’s target, and shows real intent to reduce emissions.
2. It’s not a permanent number – it can be strengthened over time. You know, like in 2025, when Labor can better demonstrate that it can be done without major economic pain.
3. Labor want to actually enforce a safeguard process that would help to reduce emissions.
4. Contrary to Greens claims, Labor has not expressed general support for all coal and gas projects to go ahead. They’ve very clearly indicated that they’ll actually impose restrictions. What they haven’t done is committed to a blanket ban – and the Greens falsely claim this means they support all projects.
Frydenberg is back in teal.
We won’t know the result at the close of counting Saturday night, it seems very likely there will be a claim or a concession before then.
The Silver Bodgie @ #265 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:41 pm
I see Boerwar is facilitating a culture of personal abuse and bullying on PB..
GlenO
There is actually not a lot of point trying to point out to the Greens where they are lying about Labor. They just do it again.
Rex
“ If Jim Chalmers had had an easier path into parliament as a Lib he would have taken it.”
F#*k off. What a totally brain dead comment.
+1
+2
Rex Douglas @ #273 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:45 pm
I see Rex Douglas is playing the victim card when he gets correctly called out. 😆
Enclosed daily Valium dose..
Australian Election Forecasts
@aeforecasts
Overall, Newspoll has shown slight trend of improvement for Labor; the latest poll pulled back a little but is still their second best of the campaign.
3:53 PM · May 18, 2022
You poor Victorians. The spruiker for the Independent (and anti vaxxer) candidate here in Gilmore , informed us at prepoll this afternoon that Dan Andrews had banned Victorians from growing their own veggies!
Rex, I find it hard to believe a person who has a PhD in Paul Keating studies would have been open to being a Liberal.
Boerwar @ #243 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:29 pm
The Greens gave Pocock 3rd, and the Greens will outlast Rubenstein, who was given 2nd. I said they put Pocock on their HTV – which means, most of their preferences would flow to Pocock over the other parties that might remain at that point in the count. Since we’re talking about where preferences go when Rubenstein has been knocked out, Greens preferences would skip over Rubenstein (for those following the HTV) and go to Pocock.
Pocock’s preferences are irrelevant, since we’re talking about the situation in which he remains in the count.
Why does it seem like most people here don’t understand how the senate counting process works?
‘Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 4:45 pm
The Silver Bodgie @ #265 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:41 pm
C@tmomma @ #248 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:33 pm
Boerwar @ #222 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:17 pm
Rex Douglas says:
‘…
Odds on Chalmers spends the 3 yrs building the case for a GST hike.’
===================
Anything but Labor Rex strikes again. Drops his one line dead cat on the table and he speeds off on his 50cc scooter.’
==============================
Rex abuses the reputation of a decent person and then finds ‘dropping a dead cat on the table’ to be abusive. Back to the Greens basic training for you Rex! Grunt all you like!
They do understand the process, they just choose to misrepresent it if it suits their chosen, and highly repetitive, narrative.
The Rodent with Deves in Warringah doing a street walk, bizarro.
Boerwar @ #281 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:49 pm
Doubles down with more personal abuse.
Lars Von Trier @ #283 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:51 pm
A hideous mental image.
outside lefts at 4:48 pm
What is it with that claim ? I’ve seen it several times over the last few months. A couple of times from members of the US loon demographic.
GlenO
Your framing is off. This is not about how senate preferences work technically. It is about signals.
1. There was absolutely nothing stopping Pocock from giving Labor no 3 preference. Nothing. He didn’t. That is a signal in and of itself. He is basically saying that if you want to preference Seselja it is all the same to me. Perhaps Labor should have returned the favour?
2. The Greens are pissed off because their one chance of gaining a second senate seat in the ACT was pinched by Pocock. So, instead of giving him next pref, they put him down the list.
FMD Fran Kelly interviewing Barnyard, both banging on about who would be Deputy PM with Labor..the obvious answer anyone but the Drunk that holds up the end of the bar we now have.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-18/federal-election-climate-change-policy-labor-liberal-greens/101074924
The COALition:
Labor:
Greens and Independents:
Not a difficult choice, is it?
Who IS the Greens shadow Treasurer? Haven’t heard a peep from him. Bandt must be keeping him locked in a dark cellar somewhere far away from people who understand economic management.
I bet he will spend the next three years counting billionaires. To get to sleep.
Short report from Bennelong.
Just been to my letter box.
Apart from a leaflet advertising Hello Fresh its entire contents were:
* A double-sided glossy A4 leaflet, one side extolling the virtues of Simon Kennedy in English, Chinese and Korean, the other side, HTV in the three languages
* A double sided, 3 page fold out A4 glossy leaflet with endorsements from various locals including the President of Epping Rotary, his old High School Principal, local business people etc, and biographical highlights and photos.
*A flyer decrying the activities of Jerome Laxale when he was Mayor of Ryde
* a generic Liberal flyer ( this one a mailed item) worrying about my savings under Albo
Earlier this week I (actually my answering machine) received an earnest invitation to join Mr Kennedy at an on-line forum and a heart felt plea from Mr Howard. Neither message reached its end. There was also of course the Howard letter yesterday.
A lot of money is being expended on us good burghers of Bennelong. Additionally of course there has been the standard party information as well as the flyer, a week or so ago, which had an endorsement for Kennedy from Greg Hunt.
Sadly all these items, including the Hello Fresh flyer have been consigned to recycling. Too little too late. My postal vote was sent ten days ago and its receipt was acknowledged by the AEC yesterday.
Edit: deleted one word, added another
“Who IS the Greens shadow Treasurer?”
Nick McKim.
Sportsbet Predictions are as follows;
ALP 78
LNP 66
IND 5
GRN 1
KAT 1
ALP gains Pearce, Swan, Bass, Braddon, Longman, Reid, Robertson, Chisholm and Boothby
IND gains Goldstein
A lot of close seats though: Bass, Brisbane, Nth Sydney, Longman, Robertson, Wentworth, Kooyong, Bennelong and Hughes are all pretty much 50/50, with Gilmore the only tight ALP seat ($1.75 v $2). The seats of Ryan, Higgins and Hasluck are all very tight.
Itep
Thanks. I would have thought that the Greens would have done well to use McKim more in their national campaign.
I don’t think Jim Chalmers would have had an offer from the LNP. He should have joined the ALP knowing full well that the highest he could ascend to was Leader of the Opposition or Shadow Treasurer. Australia with its MurdochRag media is at best no more a democracy than Malaysia or Singapore.
Boerwar @ #288 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 4:53 pm
1. Pocock didn’t assign preferences except for Rubenstein – and that’s because it’s the best way to get disaffected Liberals to support him. And Labor would completely understand that, in the same way that Labor understands the Teals refusing to commit to backing one side or the other – where the Coalition are making a big deal of it, Labor have nothing to say on that.
2. They don’t seem pissed off. They seem more elated that Seselja might be gone, and they’re supporting anyone that could do it. Rubenstein was also a well-recognised candidate, and aligns slightly better with the Greens’ views, so they put her above Pocock.
GlenO
Pocock assigned a 2 to his running mate. I believe he may have had to get a running mate in order to get an above the line showing. I do not think he assigned a 3 pref to anyone.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7715605/it-boggles-the-mind-greens-criticise-independents-over-senate-preference-advice/
So the AEC must be getting desperate in Queensland, too. I’m a state school teacher- the DG of the education department has sent an all-staff email about working for the AEC this weekend.
If you were a TV screenplay writer for a show based on the UK government would you ever come up with a storyline like this?
Boris Johnson’s party has been engulfed in fresh scandal as it emerged a Conservative MP had been arrested on Monday on suspicion of serious sexual offences, including rape.
The unnamed man’s arrest on Monday followed a two-year investigation, Metropolitan police said – and related to offences alleged to have been committed between 2002 and 2009.
In a statement, the Met said “a man, aged in his 50s, was arrested on suspicion of indecent assault, sexual assault, rape, abuse of position of trust and misconduct in public office. He remains in custody”.
.
.
Details of the MP’s arrest emerged during what the government had hoped would be “crime week”, with announcements on toughening up policing. The prime minister told his cabinet on Tuesday morning: “Crime, crime, crime is what we want to focus on.” – The Guardian
A South Australian wine has been named as the world’s best grenache and it’s only $15.
The Ethereal One Fleurieu Grenache 2020, from winemaker Mark Jamieson, won the grenache trophy at the International Wine Challenge in London on May 17, becoming the first Australian wine to win that particular trophy.
@outsideleft
While this lunacy is pretty funny, I do get frustrated that genuine issues with Dan’s leadership get lost in this stupidity. I felt the lockdowns were handled poorly, but it’s impossible to get a reasonable conversation on this matter amongst the tripe coming from the anti vaxxers and ‘freedom fighters’. It has become so ‘Team Dan’ versus ‘Team-anti Dan’ down here that a civil conversation on the topic just isn’t possible.