The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.
My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.
Other polling news:
• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.
• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.
• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.
• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.
Senate news:
• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.
• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.
• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.
Non-polling news:
• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.
• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.
• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.
Bellwether @ #349 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:42 pm
That’s why I fear Morrison will try and go to the Quad. 😯
Beaglieboy: I hope mate you are feeling better soon, and yes, Mundo can always be relied upon to spread his doom and gloom across Poll Bludger.
C@t – Dr Reid has a brand new ad all over Facebook. Gotta say, not only a terrific candidate and medical professional, he’s a hunk too.
‘The loose unit says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:21 pm
https://twitter.com/elizaednews/status/1526820912745844736?s=21&t=3ItXPtc51JhV3uL1T8w8yA
The PM just accidentally bowled over a kid while playing soccer in Tassie.’
=======================================
‘accidentallly’?
He ignored the play and went straight for the kid and squashed the poor bastard. Should have been red carded.
Sceptic at 5.15 re…
“Australian Election Forecasts
@aeforecasts
For those who like to see how the model sees the polls after adjusting for house effects, here are the results for the latest four:
Newspoll: 53.3
Morgan: 52.8
ResolvePM: 52.0
Essential: 52.7”
My recent rants here have been because the ACTUAL numbers, quoted in your post, do not support the unhinged, lilly-livered WE’RE ROONED crapola that’s been posted about recent polls.
Whether out of confusion or disingenuousness, people have compared apples with bananas and delcared ‘2019 ALL OVER AGAIN’!
Let’s be clear: to retain govt, the Coalition would have to overcome the biggest polling deficit in the shortest time of any successful federal party in the history of Australian polling.
A hung parliament is more likely than a Coalition win.
The one concession I’ll make is this: a Coalition win is not quite absolutely and completely impossible.
Boerwar @ #354 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:45 pm
Yes, if he was going for the ball he would have swerved right not left and into the little kid.
3 sleeps to go!!!
Bluey has enjoyed Bludger today. It reminded him of the Simpsons episode where every member of the family is sitting in a circle, is tied to their chairs, and is wired for electric shock aversion therapy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFCgz959ARY
Bluey notes that the narrowing predicted by Bluey is coming to pass.
Bluey was ambushed as he crept along a Canberra trottoir this morning. There was an electronic display in a shop front having to do with what the shop was selling. Irrelevant for Bluey but clearly a shop associated with Chinese culture, when up popped an ad for none other than Fuxin Le. Mr Le has received some attention because of real or fancied links with organisations having real or fancied links with the Chinese Government.
Bluey saw Albanese at the NPC and reckons he would make a good prime minister. Bluey especially enjoyed Tingle sitting McClennell down.
In a sign of desperation, Morrison has deployed a spinning jenny.
Agenda where Morrison wants it: on the economy. This matters for voters. Albanese ran a cracker at the NPC. Got a genuine burst of enthusiastic applause at the end. This did not matter with voters.
Score for the day Morrison +.5. Bluey has been upbraided by sundry Teals for not giving them a score. He wonders how to divide .5 by 25. And how do you score a gaggle, anyway? Showing advanced listening skills, Bluey has decided to award +.5 to the Teals. He has also decided to award the Greens a +.5 today for their ground game. This offsets the gaffes of the cock choker, ‘Google it’ and the SEVEN DEMANDS for $173 billion. Fittingly, this gets the Greens back to where they were at the start of the campaign: 0.
Cumulative score: Morrison 3; Albanese 4.5; Joyce .5; Bandt 0; Palmer +.5; Teals +.5.
Bluey continues to predict that Labor will win majority government with a small number of seats in hand. He has based this prediction all along on the baseball bat femmes fatales (for Morrison) segment of the voting population. OTOH, Bluey has held the view all along that the billion taxpayer advertising spend on the Liberals, the combined efforts of Murdoch, Stokes, Costello and Buttrose, and the massive spend by Palmer would do what they always do: fuck over our little democracy around no end.
Evan @ #353 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:44 pm
Gordon has a truck too! And it was parked right outside the Pre Poll today. 😀
If he goes to the Quad meeting and he is only hanging on by a mathematical thread….or even worse, that he hasnt conceeded in a Trump like denial of reality. I think the other leaders will shun meaningful contact and dialogue with him.
Academic anyway, the ALP will have more than 76 ABC/Antony Greene called seats by Sunday
Bluey has a tentacle in every pie
Scomo’s bulldozer soccer effort doesn’t come close to Boris Johnson steamrolling a ten year old playing rugby.
Player One @ #328 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:29 pm
READ IT. Labor vs Greens/LNP it says
So the bulldozer has smashed some kid.
Assuming an accident how clumsy is he.
What a dickhead
So, who are the Libs employing to flood twitter with Lib-bots …?
“Thanks. I would have thought that the Greens would have done well to use McKim more in their national campaign.”
***
Oh he’s been out campaigning, don’t worry…
He’s also our immigration spokesperson…
BK @ #310 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:20 pm
Derek Fowlds showed what a great actor he was in heartbeat, playing a totally different character type.
Trans kids can’t play sport but fat white men can? And the hug?
Actually McKim would be a better leader than Bandt. He would have more credibility outside the Green Bubble.
That kid is going to have PTSD for sure. Squash tackled by a total stranger!
Stanley at 5.50
Would Morrison have the guts to play rugby against 10 year olds?
“The Rodent with Deves in Warringah doing a street walk, bizarro.”
He’s been all over Australia and must be exhausted. Time to recharge his batteries.
Boerwar @ #369 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:53 pm
What about Whish-Wilson or whatever his name is? McKim strikes me as bad as if not worse than Bandt!
For all the bedwetters out there (and trolls like Freya and Taylormade)
Dr x says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:53 pm
Trans kids can’t play sport but fat white men can? And the hug?
____________________
I saw that too and it kinda creeped me out, alot. This is the laying on hands SfM, poor kid looked like he was trapped and trying to get away.
‘Shellbell says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:49 pm
Bluey has a tentacle in every pie’
========================
Betting the spread? Bluey reckons that it was all a lot easier when the two horse race was a two horse race.
OK, the two hunkiest Labor candidates by miles are Gordon Reid and Andrew Charlton, Josh Burns down in Melbourne is rather hot too – adding a bit of light to what has otherwise been pretty serious discussion on here today.
It seems like current Labor has an easier time winning state elections for three reasons:
1. They can more easily run a credible campaign on one set of issues. Trying to appeal to Melbourne and Brisbane at the same time based largely on facts leaves them more open to negative scare tactics
2. The corporations and media profit even more from having the conservatives in federally, and thus invest more towards their defence without the party spending a cent
3. They suck at using Google to find a good songwriter
Any problems with this analysis?
‘Confessions says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:56 pm
Boerwar @ #369 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:53 pm
Actually McKim would be a better leader than Bandt. He would have more credibility outside the Green Bubble.
What about Whish-Wilson or whatever his name is? McKim strikes me as bad as if not worse than Bandt!’
==========
Yeah. But, you know…. the hyphen.
Shellbell at 5:49 pm
Mmmmmm, 8 delicious octopus pies.
“Actually McKim would be a better leader than Bandt. He would have more credibility outside the Green Bubble.”
***
He’s already one of our co-deputy leaders, along with Larrisa Waters.
Bandt has run a superb campaign and is really resonating outside the Boerski Bubble. 😛
Talking of things AEC our postals votes arrived yesterday VIA DHL. We applied the first chance so a long delay in application and arrival.
I can see many overseas voters being disenfranchised because of the closure of booths.
Voted this morning and went to the Embassy to drop in the Box. Apparently the Ambassador clears the box at 4pm and votes flown to Sydney tonight on QF.
Last time Bangkok had over 3000 votes. This time only 140 Postal Votes had been lodged as at 1pm today. Other Aussies I know are yet to receive their votes.
Heading to Hua Hin for the weekend and will stock up onsite. Hope your on the mend Beagleboy.
All keep safe no matter who you support.
Garth, Lib candidate is claiming his government has built for defense 70 vessels, under the ALP 0.
70 vessels???
No explanation, just 70 vessels.
Argh….
poroti
Abusive post!
winner of best ad – https://twitter.com/pocockdavid/status/1526832572185030656
D says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:59 pm
Garth, Lib candidate is claiming his government has built for defense 70 vessels, under the ALP 0.
70 vessels???
No explanation, just 70 vessels.
Argh….
_______________________
If they are from the LNP, they are, no doubt empty vessels
The difference between Morrison and Julia Gillard say………..
When JG lost her shoe and fell over, the picture was shown a gazillion times and was hooted over by the ratbag right wing media together with so-called humour to match.
Morrison bowls over some kid ……………………
Could make some joke, I suppose of big, beefy, bullying adult flattens some poor kid just like flattens any adult who gets in his way…..
Bet nothing like this will appear……………………………………
C@tmomma @ #334 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:32 pm
I read that there’s a fairly simple trick to wipe a hard drive is to encrypt it, optionally reinstall any operating system, and then lose the decryption key. (I haven’t tried it.)
EDIT: removed wrong quote (Sorry ST)
He’s a pretty classy bloke that Simon Holmes A’Court isn’t he. Calling a former Prime Minister “ the angel of death” in some tweet.
A new low in this campaign. And a putrid stain on the Teals.
poroti says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:58 pm
Shellbell at 5:49 pm
Bluey has a tentacle in every pie
Mmmmmm, 8 delicious octopus pies.
________________________
I imagine bluey in one one of those little jars with brine, vinegar and some chilli and a nice Chianti…….ffffft fffft fffft
Yeah thanks mate, I am nearly back to full fighting strength Upnorth…..still 3 more days of iso tho
The words were those of an unidentified Liberal source quoted by Karen Middleton in The Saturday Paper:
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/05/07/liberal-polling-predicts-losses-josh-frydenberg-and-tim-wilson
Al Pal @ #387 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:03 pm
At least he didn’t use women and children drowning at sea to advance his political fortunes in an election campaign. 😐
BeaglieBoy says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:04 pm
Yeah thanks mate, I am nearly back to full fighting strength Upnorth…..still 3 more days of iso tho
中华人民共和国
Thoughts and prayers mate.
‘Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:03 pm
poroti says:
Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:58 pm
Shellbell at 5:49 pm
Bluey has a tentacle in every pie
Mmmmmm, 8 delicious octopus pies.
________________________
I imagine bluey in one one of those little jars with brine, vinegar and some chilli and a nice Chianti…….ffffft fffft fffft’
=================================
Bluey got really mad about this. Next it will be baby octopus recipes! He has referred you to the AEC.
Got the letter from John Howard, spent about 30 seconds in my hands before disappearing into the yellow bin
How many of these have they mailed out… every marginal seat voter?
I’m not seeing anything to change an absolute minimum of the ALP net gaining 5 seats from the coalition, with the Teals picking up 1. If the Coalition wins 70 seats, then the entire polling industry should be ctrl+alt+deleted. Of course the variable should only be to the Coalition negative side, must confess that a rather large variable (15 more losses) is something i am certainly less confident of relative to a week ago.
@ Arky
You summed it up really well!! I was having a rough trot personally in 2020 so no doubt Dan became my whipping boy, but the inability to have sensible discussion re the premier was painful. The diehard Dan supporters definitely exacerbated my ill will towards him.
As for Matthew Guy, urghhhh. I could never vote for him, I reckon I’d choose ScoMo over Guy. Rumour has it he only stayed in politics post election loss because no one wanted to hire him as a planner, because of the woeful job he did in the planning portfolio. And the African gangs crap….seriously!!
I’ve got 6 more months to ‘heal’ and if Dan can produce a few more brilliant speeches like the pro Trans speech then he may, begrudgingly, get my vote.
@Boerwar says:
Bluey got really mad about this. Next it will be baby octopus recipes! He has referred you to the AEC.
_____________________-
Guess it all depends on how good the prophesies turn on Saturday night…..
A friend of mine in Tas got one yesterday.
Anyone know where to find the pre-poll stats updates ?
Evan @ #375 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:57 pm
+1 🙂