Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Liberal 46, undecided 7

Essential Research joins in on the tightening race narrative, although it gets there through preferences rather than primary votes. Also featured: many seat polls, one of which has independent Kate Chaney leading in Curtin, and even polls for the Senate.

The final Essential Research poll for the campaign has Labor leading by 48% to 46% on the pollster’s “2PP+” measure, in from 49% to 45% a fortnight ago, with the remainder undecided. However, both the Coalition and Labor are steady on the primary vote at 36% and 35%, the change mostly being accounted for by respondent-allocated preferences. For the minor parties, the Greens are down one to 9%, One Nation is up one to 4%, the United Australia Party is down one to 3% and independents are up one to 6%. Leadership ratings are little changed: Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 43% and up one on disapproval to 49%, Anthony Albanese is up one to 42% and steady on 41%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister moves from 40-36 to 40-37.

My reading of the state breakdowns is that the results are likely too strong for the Coalition in Victoria and too weak in New South Wales, at least in relative terms — using previous election flows, Labor leads by about 53-47 in New South Wales and 51-49 in Victoria, respectively compared with 51-49 to the Coalition and around 53.5-46.5 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is credited with a lead of about 52-48 in Queensland, a swing to Labor of over 6%, compared with about 50-50 in the previous poll. Sample sizes here would have been about 500 in New South Wales, 400 in Victoria and 300 in Queensland.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Tuesday from a sample of 1599. It has made little difference to the BludgerTrack aggregate, since it goes off primary votes which are little changed. The more heavily weighted Newspoll and Ipsos polls that are yet to come stand more chance of moving its needle, which they will want to do in the Coalition’s favour if it is to end up with a two-party preferred reading that I personally would think plausible.

Other polling news:

• The West Australian today had a poll by Utting Research showing independent Kate Chaney leading Liberal member Celia Hammond in Curtin by 52-48 on two-candidate preferred, from primary votes of 38% for Hammond, 32% for Chaney, 13% for Labor, 9% for the Greens and 3% for the United Australia Party. The poll was conducted on Monday from a sample of 514.

• Katherine Murphy of The Guardian reports Labor is “increasingly bullish” about Brisbane and Higgins, and further perceives “opportunity” in Bennelong and Ryan. The report says Labor internal polling has Scott Morrison’s disapproval rating across the four seats at 62%, 65%, 57% and 58% respectively, whereas Anthony Albanese is in the mid-forties in approval and mid-thirties on disapproval.

• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports on uComms polls for GetUp! of five seats chosen because of the effects on them of fires and floods. These have Labor member Fiona Phillips leading Liberal challenger Andrew Constance by 57-43 in Gilmore, but Liberal candidate Jerry Nockles leading Labor member Kirsty McBain by 51-49 in Eden-Monaro. Labor’s Peter Cossar is credited with a 55-45 lead over Liberal National Party member Julian Simmonds in Ryan, although his primary vote of 27% is not far clear of the Greens on 22%. Labor member Susan Templeman leads Liberal candidate Sarah Richards by 56-44 in Macquarie, and Nationals member Kevin Hogan leads Labor’s Patrick Deegan by 51-49 in Page, which he won by 9.4% in 2019. I have tended to think this pollster’s results have been flattering to Labor due to a limited weighting frame encompassing only age and gender, a notion disabused here only by the Eden-Monaro result.

• Speaking of which, The Australia Institute has a now dated uComms poll of Higgins from May 2 that had hitherto escaped my notice, showing Liberal member Katie Allen will lose either to Labor by 54-46 or the Greens by 55-45. Using the results of the forced-response follow-up to allocate the initially undecided, the primary votes are Liberal 36.9%, Labor 29.8% and Greens 19.9%, in which case it would clearly be Labor that won the seat.

• Redbridge Group has published full results of its poll for Climate 200 in North Sydney which, as noted here yesterday, had Liberal member Trent Zimmerman on 33.3%, independent Kylea Tink on 23.5% and Labor candidate Catherine Renshaw on 17.8%, with 7.5% undecided. The full report has results on a follow-up prompt for the undecided, and much more besides.

Senate news:

• The Australia Institute has Senate voting intention results for the five mainland states, which suggest the Greens are looking good across the board, One Nation might be a show in New South Wales as well as Queensland, the United Australia Party are competitive in Victoria, a third seat for Labor is in play in Western Australia, and Nick Xenophon might be in a tussle with One Nation for the last place in South Australia. With a national sample of 1002 though, there are naturally wide margins of error on these results. The accompanying report also include interesting data on respondents’ levels of understanding of the Senate voting process.

• The Advertiser reports an “internal party polling” – it does not say whose – of the South Australian Senate race has Labor on 34%, Liberal on 23%, the Greens on 12%, Nick Xenophon on 6%, One Nation on 4% and Rex Patrick on 3%. I imagine the most likely outcome of such a result would be two seats each for Labor and Liberal plus one for the Greens and one for Nick Xenophon. The poll had a sample of 644, with field work dates not disclosed.

• A joint sitting of the Western Australian parliament has just confirmed that Ben Small of the Liberal Party will fill his own Senate vacancy, having addressed the dual citizenship issue that forced his resignation. Small has the third position on the Liberal ticket at Saturday’s election.

Non-polling news:

• Sky News has obtained a voicemail message from 2019 in which Dai Le, who is threatening Kristina Keneally’s effort to use Fowler to move from the Senate to the House of Representatives, stated she still had control of the Liberal Party’s Cabramatta branch despite having been suspended from the party after running as an independent mayoral candidate in 2016. Le has been keen to express her independent credentials in a seat where the Liberal Party has little support.

• Samantha Maiden of news.com.au reports Labor focus groups in Bennelong, Deakin and Pearce registered negative reactions to the Liberal Party’s policy of allowing home buyers to make use of their superannuation.

• The count for the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Huon has been completed, with the distribution of preferences resulting in a victory for independent candidate Dean Harriss over Labor’s Toby Thorpe at the final count by 11,840 votes (52.55%) to 10,693 (47.45%). Thorpe led on the primary vote, but Liberal preferences flowed to Harriss more strongly than Greens preferences did to Thorpe. This maintains the numbers in the chamber at four Labor, four Liberal and seven independents, although an ex-Labor member has been replaced by one with a conservative pedigree, his father having served in parliament both as an independent and with the Liberal Party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

989 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 48, Liberal 46, undecided 7”

Comments Page 9 of 20
1 … 8 9 10 … 20

  4. The biggest CCS project in the world is the Gorgon gas project in WAChevron, Exxon and Shell have spent $3 bn on itIt has fallen millions of tonnes short in the amount of CO₂ it captures and buriesAs Bruce Robertson said if they can’t do it, who can?https://t.co/H5ZKmtxFp2— Bruce Robertson (@barobertson111) May 18, 2022

    I thought CCS was worth a trial, but it’s time to move on from it now.

  5. William,
    The unidentified Liberal should have been outed. It was a nasty uncalled for description. Holmes ACourt was just as obnoxious as the Liberal in his public repeat of the slur. It does not make it acceptable,

  6. ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:01 pm

    winner of best ad – https://twitter.com/pocockdavid/status/1526832572185030656‘
    =======================
    Well, here’s ‘anything but Labor’ out for an anti-Labor hit again. Sparrow team for the Greens.

    That ad is in response to action by Gillard and Wong to remind Labor voters not to get sucked in by Pocock and thus to inadvertently end up with Pocock/Seselja.

    Pocock did not preference either Labor or Seselja, which tells us that Pocock is solely concerned about getting himself into the Senate.

    The real question is whether Labor voters should return Pocock’s behaviour?

  8. The Liberals are lucky John Howard is in such good physical shape and thus able to be utilised in person during the campaign. Who would they use if he wasn’t able to travel around the place, esp seeing as they can’t use the incumbent PM?

    Ch9 news showed Abbott wandering about Warringah with Deves. I doubt he has quite the ‘star power’ Howard does, and would be as much of a turn off as Morrison is in some areas.

  9. Boerwar @ #409 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:14 pm

    ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:01 pm

    winner of best ad – https://twitter.com/pocockdavid/status/1526832572185030656‘
    =======================
    Well, here’s ‘anything but Labor’ out for an anti-Labor hit again. Sparrow team for the Greens.

    That ad is in response to action by Gillard and Wong to remind Labor voters not to get sucked in by Pocock and thus to inadvertently end up with Pocock/Seselja.

    Pocock did not preference either Labor or Seselja, which tells us that Pocock is solely concerned about getting himself into the Senate.

    The real question is whether Labor voters should return Pocock’s behaviour?

    You’re emoting unnecessarily.

    Pour yourself a single malt and relax.

  10. I’m looking for polling data on the Teal independents. Specifically, who are Teals expected to give their 2nd / 3rd preferences to? Can anybody point me in the right direction? Thanks

  11. Will having Pocock in the Senate benefit Labor on votes on legislation?

    If the Coalition vote with Labor on legislation this is enough, with or without Seselja.

    If the Coalition vote against, it is better to have Pocock as that is a senator to negotiate with.

    In this way, Pocock is easily the best choice for a Labor voter to preference if they want the most flexibility in government.

  12. ‘Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:12 pm

    @Boerwar says:

    Bluey got really mad about this. Next it will be baby octopus recipes! He has referred you to the AEC.
    _____________________-

    Guess it all depends on how good the prophesies turn on Saturday night…..’
    =============================
    Bluey is not a betting occie otherwise he would bet the farm, wombats among the inclusions, on the next prime minister being Albanese. The truly nice thing is that after Saturday innocent kids need never again fear being crushed by prime ministers.

  13. ‘ltep says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:18 pm

    Will having Pocock in the Senate benefit Labor on votes on legislation?

    If the Coalition vote with Labor on legislation this is enough, with or without Seselja.

    If the Coalition vote against, it is better to have Pocock as that is a senator to negotiate with.

    In this way, Pocock is easily the best choice for a Labor voter to preference if they want the most flexibility in government.’
    ===========================
    Maybe. He may belong to the ‘perfect is the enemy of the good’ brigade.

  14. Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:17 pm

    Boerwar @ #409 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:14 pm

    ‘Rex Douglas says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:01 pm

    winner of best ad – https://twitter.com/pocockdavid/status/1526832572185030656‘
    =======================
    Well, here’s ‘anything but Labor’ out for an anti-Labor hit again. Sparrow team for the Greens.

    That ad is in response to action by Gillard and Wong to remind Labor voters not to get sucked in by Pocock and thus to inadvertently end up with Pocock/Seselja.

    Pocock did not preference either Labor or Seselja, which tells us that Pocock is solely concerned about getting himself into the Senate.

    The real question is whether Labor voters should return Pocock’s behaviour?

    After all, he deliberately has done Labor zero favours in this campaign.

  15. NRL PHYSIO@nrlphysio
    ·
    1h
    Contact to the head was direct and forceful. Clear send off if I’ve ever seen it

    It’s fortunate we can all laugh about it. Things could’ve gotten hairy though!!

  16. Expat Followersays:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:11 pm
    Got the letter from John Howard, spent about 30 seconds in my hands before disappearing into the yellow bin
    How many of these have they mailed out… every marginal seat voter?
    ____________________
    Got one yesterday and am in Corangamite . Scomo here again today.
    Coker nowhere to be seen as usual, apart from her sponsored ads on Facebook.

  17. ‘Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:12 pm

    @Boerwar says:

    Bluey got really mad about this. Next it will be baby octopus recipes! He has referred you to the AEC.
    _____________________-

    Guess it all depends on how good the prophesies turn on Saturday night…..’
    =============================
    Bluey is not a betting occie otherwise he would bet the farm, wombats among the inclusions, on the next prime minister being Albanese. The truly nice thing is that after Saturday innocent kids need never again fear being crushed by prime ministers.
    _____________________
    Was SfM 1.0 demonstrating the Bulldozer move again?

  18. “I’m looking for polling data on the Teal independents. Specifically, who are Teals expected to give their 2nd / 3rd preferences to? Can anybody point me in the right direction? Thanks”

    ***

    There is no one place as they are all independents. Some of them are simply telling voters to decide their own preferences. The campaign website for whichever Teal it is would be the best place to look I’d say.

    Here’s one high profile example…

    https://www.allegraspender.com.au/how_to_vote

  20. Magnetar, teals are taking the middle and pulling votes from the coalition and Labor. It would be pretty hard to quantify how many are in each block. There will be voters who are disappointed with the LNP response to many issues, who would never ever vote Labor and those like me who have voted tactically to take out the LNP incumbent, instead of voting Labor and helping to elect the LNP incumbent.

  21. Taylormade @ #419 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:22 pm

    Expat Followersays:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:11 pm
    Got the letter from John Howard, spent about 30 seconds in my hands before disappearing into the yellow bin
    How many of these have they mailed out… every marginal seat voter?
    ____________________
    Got one yesterday and am in Corangamite . Scomo here again today.
    Coker nowhere to be seen as usual, apart from her sponsored ads on Facebook.

    That letter enough to get you over the line …?

  22. Taylormade @ #416 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:22 pm

    Expat Followersays:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:11 pm
    Got the letter from John Howard, spent about 30 seconds in my hands before disappearing into the yellow bin
    How many of these have they mailed out… every marginal seat voter?
    ____________________
    Got one yesterday and am in Corangamite . Scomo here again today.
    Coker nowhere to be seen as usual, apart from her sponsored ads on Facebook.

    Got anything to say about Ben Morton spending most of the campaign with Morrison, instead of campaigning in Tangney?

  23. @SomeGuy
    I do think that people in general like a different party in charge federally than at state level. I also think people prefer
    the LNP on Federal issues like Defence and the Economy, but much prefer Labor for Health and Education issues. A theory anyway, but explains why so many LNP state governments are booted after one term.

  24. Magnetar @ #410 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:18 pm

    I’m looking for polling data on the Teal independents. Specifically, who are Teals expected to give their 2nd / 3rd preferences to? Can anybody point me in the right direction? Thanks

    Most Teal HTVs I have seen have simply put the candidate ‘1’ and left the rest blank for people to make up their own minds about their preferences.

  25. C@tmomma

    Some company offering odds on how drunk politicians will be when making defence procurement decisions would clean up on this site.

  26. Late Riser @ #386 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:03 pm

    Snappy Tom @ #86 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 2:40 pm

    Pi and The Revisionist

    If I understand your logic…
    1)Labor would ‘appear’ to go backwards in ‘Teal’ seats as part of the Teal vote comes from strategically minded Labor voters.
    2) But, polling (aside from that cherry-picked here by LNP partisans) suggests a swing TO Labor on both PV (soft) and 2PP (bigger).
    3) Therefore, in ‘non-Teal’ seats, Labor is likely to be doing very well in terms of a quite strong PV swing and even stronger swing on 2PP.

    If that’s your argument, sign me up!

    C@tmomma @ #334 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:32 pm

    These days departing political advisors go to Bunnings to buy a big hammer to smash their hard drive with.

    I read that there’s a fairly simple trick to wipe a hard drive is to encrypt it, optionally reinstall any operating system, and then lose the decryption key. (I haven’t tried it.)

    Losing the encryption key will only slow people down, won’t stop them.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:23 pm

    All these exhortations to drink alcohol Ugh. I’m so glad I don’t go any further than a cider.
    中华人民共和国
    Don’t worry C@t a few members of the The Whatever-The-Fuck-Our-Name-Is-Pollbludger-Pissheads-Club and I will cover for you. As with betting on seats though, use a level head!

  31. If Bluey’s predictions are wRONg I’ll refer him to Rick Stein. There’ll be no more lazing about it his 5 star rock pool.

  33. ‘Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:22 pm

    ‘Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:12 pm

    @Boerwar says:

    Bluey got really mad about this. Next it will be baby octopus recipes! He has referred you to the AEC.
    _____________________-

    Guess it all depends on how good the prophesies turn on Saturday night…..’
    =============================
    Bluey is not a betting occie otherwise he would bet the farm, wombats among the inclusions, on the next prime minister being Albanese. The truly nice thing is that after Saturday innocent kids need never again fear being crushed by prime ministers.
    _____________________
    Was SfM 1.0 demonstrating the Bulldozer move again?’
    ============================
    Cracker!

  34. morrison’s ploy worked on SBS.

    Ad for news showed Albo NPC speech as one of 3 ‘highlights’ of upcoming broadcast (at 6:15). News lead-in? Morrison mowing ovber the kid opn soccerfield.

  35. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:36 pm
    One thing I’ve noticed since seeing a lot more of Anthony Albanese this election campaign, he’s got big feet and big hands. And you know what they say about that.

    Don’t be shy, Catmomma, what is it that they say?

  36. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:25 pm

    Taylormade @ #416 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 6:22 pm

    Expat Followersays:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:11 pm
    Got the letter from John Howard, spent about 30 seconds in my hands before disappearing into the yellow bin
    How many of these have they mailed out… every marginal seat voter?
    ____________________
    Got one yesterday and am in Corangamite . Scomo here again today.
    Coker nowhere to be seen as usual, apart from her sponsored ads on Facebook.

    Got anything to say about Ben Morton spending most of the campaign with Morrison, instead of campaigning in Tangney?
    中华人民共和国
    Or Malcolm Turnbull 🙂

  37. @C@T: Non drunkards club representing here! Not that being unconscious on election night 2019 would have been a bad thing.

  38. Middle aged balding white man, with small hands and small feet, sadly. says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:33 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 5:36 pm
    One thing I’ve noticed since seeing a lot more of Anthony Albanese this election campaign, he’s got big feet and big hands. And you know what they say about that.

    Don’t be shy, Catmomma, what is it that they say?
    ____________________

    Big socks and gloves i guess..

  39. ‘poroti says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:31 pm

    If Bluey’s predictions are wRONg I’ll refer him to Rick Stein. There’ll be no more lazing about it his 5 star rock pool.’
    ————–
    If you look very, very closely you can just see a cheery wavy tentacle in the top left corner of the picture. Just next to the rock. Bluey-Occie the Third is totally relaxed about Albanese being the next prime minister. He heard it in the sincere applause at the NPC this morning.After all, even the most cynical paid for Murdercrat hack can’t help but feel relieved not to have to deal with Morrison ever again.

    Then Bluey saw it in the way that Morrison deliberately squashed a child so that he could ‘comfort’ the child for the TV grab.

  41. Apologies for the quick reference to US political news but I am glad to see that Pennsylvania Democrats had enough sense to nominate John Fetterman in the Senate primary. The dude has “Pennsylvania working class” all over him and has progressive views. It’s going to be an uphill battle to win that seat in November but he’s probably their best shot.

  43. The biggest highlight of my day was the cornflake crumbed chicken burger on Chapel St. Followed very closely by being Robo-called by K Rudd. Kevin needlessly urging me to vote for my mate Terri.

  44. Ch 7 news showed a bit of SfM bulldozing the poor kid at the end of their election segment. They claimed the kid was OK.

    An astute injury claims lawyer is probably contacting the parents right now. Getting slammed to the ground by someone perhaps four times your weight is something to consider.

  46. 5.1% inflation pfff you ain’t seen nothing yet.

    “UK inflation rose to its highest level since Margaret Thatcher was prime minister 40 years ago, adding to pressure for action from the government and central bank.

    Consumer prices surged 9% in the year through April, the fastest rate since March 1982, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday in a report that marked a bleak moment for living standards. Economists had expected a reading of 9.1%.

    The surge from 7% in March came from an increase in energy prices, reflecting a surge in wholesale markets that drove a 54% in consumer bills in April. Fuel prices also contributed, reflecting higher oil prices after the war in Ukraine. Both petrol and diesel prices in April rose to a record. ”

    https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/2311986/britains-inflation-rate-surges-to-a-40-year-high-of-9-

  47. ‘Wat Tyler says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:37 pm

    Apologies for the quick reference to US political news but I am glad to see that Pennsylvania Democrats had enough sense to nominate John Fetterman in the Senate primary. The dude has “Pennsylvania working class” all over him and has progressive views. It’s going to be an uphill battle to win that seat in November but he’s probably their best shot.’
    ================
    Best shot? I don’t know about that. The Fettermans have form:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetterman_Fight

  48. Late Riser says:
    Wednesday, May 18, 2022 at 6:03 pm

    C@tmomma @ #334 Wednesday, May 18th, 2022 – 5:32 pm

    These days departing political advisors go to Bunnings to buy a big hammer to smash their hard drive with.

    I read that there’s a fairly simple trick to wipe a hard drive is to encrypt it, optionally reinstall any operating system, and then lose the decryption key. (I haven’t tried it.)
    —————————————————————————–
    Better still to use one of those secure wipe apps like DBAN to overwrite repeatedly with zeroes, then ones, then random zeros/ones. Seven passes of overwrite should do it.

    *Then* you can take a hammer to it.

  49. That football club has breached their duty of care.

    Whoever authorised Morrison participating should be sacked.

    If it was a school event, they would be.

Comments Page 9 of 20
1 … 8 9 10 … 20

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *