Click here for full federal election results updated live.
The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 4:41 pm
_______________________
Not clear yet that KK staying on hasn’t been ruled out.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/05/24/federal-election-live-day-four/comment-page-15/#comment-3923427
And fewer predators
To be fair, I’d probably be tempted to chuck a vote to someone promising to reduce the amount of bloody helicopters that fly back and forth from the nearby army base, but there probably isn’t a whole lot that can be done about that.
(To illustrate my point, another just flew over right as I was typing this.)
Asha @ #753 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 4:45 pm
For sure. I’m in West End. We regularly have PolAir hovering over us as well as News Choppers. The RACQ Careflight shakes the house as it heads to the PA Hospital – that one I can deal with due to its humanitarian value.
And there’s another!
Cronus
He’s moving on the ‘cute animal’ angle already.
Although there are still some ‘dog issues’ he needs to work on.
Lars Von Trier @ #750 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 4:42 pm
The next co-host of Today on 9.
Asha says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 4:48 pm
And there’s another!
_____________________
If you vote the Greens (amongst others) – ADF will become a light mobile force (as per Boerwar’s analysis) and your aircraft noise problem will be fixed
B.S. Fairman @ #744 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 4:37 pm
But that was just Freya Stark, so there’s your answer. 🙂
Boinzo:
Yeah, no doubt many of those choppers are doing essential work that takes priority over my desire for a quiet afternoon, but good God there are a lot of them. I nearly lost my mind during the Commonwealth Games. It seemed sometimes that they were flying from here to Goldie every ten minutes.
Lars:
LMAO!
If you want less choppers in the military then you vote for Dutton to remain Defence minister.
The Light Mobile Force is a direct quote from the Greens. It is not my analysis.
Just to continue on from my analysis of Macnamara on the last page, the last batch of 2000 postals broke like this:
Liberals – 36% (-4% compared to all postals so far, -5% from early batches)
Labor – 30% (-2% compared to all postals so far, -4% from early batches)
Greens – 20% (+3% compared to all postals so far, +5% compared to early batches)
That doesn’t appear to just be an anomaly, I’ve been following closely and each subsequent batch has tended to follow that trend of being a little worse for both Labor & Liberal and a little better for the Greens since the first one, it’s been a gradual pattern.
So I think any modelling using the current rates – 40% Liberal, 32% Labor, 17% Greens – would be very inaccurate, especially when as I say on the previous page, later postals increasingly will be people who planned to vote on the day but got Covid, and probably be nothing like the early postals.
Yeah they’re obviously still favouring Labor over Greens and will extend their lead, but the gap between them is now 10% rather than 19% in each batch and that should continue to narrow while the gap between Labor & Liberal on postals has remained in the 6-7% range (favouring Libs).
I don’t think the 5100 remaining postals will keep extending Labor’s lead at the same rate it had been, it will really start to slow down, and then there are way more Absentee, Provisional & Dec Prepoll votes (and possibly late Covid Postals) to count for the Greens to eat away at some of the Labor lead.
The bigger problem for the Greens is that Absent, Provisional & Prepoll votes could very well drop the Liberals too far behind to finish in the top 2.
Either way, Labor probable to win but there is certainly a possibility of a surprise swing back in absents & Covid postals which make it a tighter race again.
Boinzo
“ Nobody is more entitled than the gentrified tree-tories in Bulimba.
What’s even weirder is how aircraft movements have *never* been lower than in the past few years thanks to covid. I wonder if people are suddenly noticing aircraft more because they had a year with basically none.”
Highly likely I’d say. I’m way out in far west Dickson out beyond Samford (where an anti-noise group resides) and frankly I suspect it’s an old bugger thing, nothing else to really whinge about in these parts so pick aircraft noise. As I say, we barely notice it.
@Andrew_Earlwood
There was an indicative 3 Candidate Preferred presence count done today of some of the booths and some postals to get a clearer idea of how the preferences in Brisbane will flow.
Animal Justice Party are breaking roughly 70-20-10 for Greens, Labor then Libs.
UAP & PHON favour Libs, but Greens are consistently picking up more of the remaining preferences than Labor. The same applies to a lesser degree with LDP votes.
Trent @ #764 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:01 pm
Google apophenia.
Ch 10 news re Albo in Tokyo – “his first big test as Prime Minister”.
When on earth will the MSM give up? Did the MSM ever subject SfM to “tests”?
JenAuthor: “Autocrat – after the madness of the past 6 weeks it is taking some time to wind back the brain’s activity. As the counting slows, suspect we will too.”
’twas always thus.
Albanese already far more statesmanlike on the world stage than Morrison ever was.
poroti
(Chuckling) Dutton will have to do a bit better than that I suspect. Next thing you know we’ll see Voldemort befriending Harry Potter at Hogwarts.
Interesting the difference between Albo with puppy and Dutton with puppy. Only one of them looks authentic.
Ch 10 news re Albo in Tokyo – “his first big test as Prime Minister”
_____
And he emerged like a statesman – unlike the embarrassing previous incumbent..
Boinzo
“Nobody is more entitled than the gentrified tree-tories in Bulimba.
What’s even weirder is how aircraft movements have *never* been lower than in the past few years thanks to covid. I wonder if people are suddenly noticing aircraft more because they had a year with basically none.”
That is it for sure. Total aircraft movement numbers are still nowhere near pre-covid peak levels. Night international movements would also still be lower than pre-covid.
Looks likely Adam Bandt will win Melbourne on Primaries after increasing his vote election on election. The lesson is for the Greens who won this time to do the same. I’d imagine a few Labor voters will just naturally switch over next time provided the members do an ok job.
What about Andrew Constance as LOTO?
Dutton could flame out pretty quickly. His PPM and netsat numbers will be awful and it won’t take long for #libspill rumblings to begin.
Evan says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:06 pm
“Albanese already far more statesmanlike on the world stage than Morrison ever was.”
In fairness, it’s a very low bar.
Cronus: ” I’m way out in far west Dickson out beyond Samford ”
I have relos that live and have lived around there. If people don’t know, it is quite a beautiful part of the world. Nice.
I think there’s some truth in that. Also, people working from home probably notice aircraft noise more than in a busy office.
Autocrat that’s completely and utterly uncalled for, rude and disrespectful.
I have never once, ever, said anything on this page even remotely rude or disrespectful to anybody, never once provoked an argument, and have always made an effort to be as nice, friendly and non-confrontational as possible, as everybody should in life. Is it unreasonable to expect the same back? I won’t tolerate that attitude.
I wrote, probably about 5 times in my 2 posts, that I completely agree with everybody’s analysis that Labor are likely to win. But somebody *specifically asked* if there is a path to a Greens victory, I have been crunching the numbers and watching the pattern and simply answered their very specific question – it wasn’t to you, it was to the person who asked – and said here is the unlikely but possible very narrow path to victory for them.
Then you respond by calling me a conspiracy theorist? Really? That is just absolutely disgusting behaviour. You simply don’t respond rudely online to ANYBODY, let alone unprovoked to somebody who was being nice and answering a question. What happened to being taught that if you don’t have something nice to say, don’t say it?
“And he emerged like a statesman – unlike the embarrassing previous incumbent..”
Well said BK.
nath says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:07 pm
Looks likely Adam Bandt will win Melbourne on Primaries after increasing his vote election on election. The lesson is for the Greens who won this time to do the same. I’d imagine a few Labor voters will just naturally switch over next time provided the members do an ok job.
_________________________________________
Throw in a little disillusionment with the inevitable compromises of the 76 seat Labor government and before you know it the Greens vote will be 15% or better in 2025.
Oh how they mocked – you’ve been stuck at 10% for years, black wiggle etc etc
The Greens will decide the circumstances in which Labor passes bills in the Senate and what those bills contain.
@ Boerwar
Trouble is with Dutton, on the rare occasions that he smiles he transforms from a potato to a puffer fish.
@Andrew Bartlett,
Thanks for the update on Brisbane.
Lorax: “What about Andrew Constance as LOTO?”
He would flame out just like Turnbull. The problem isn’t the liberals, it’s the nationals. If you can’t put them in their box, you’re nationals whether you like it or not. Voters know it. That’s why they’re leaving in the bluest of blue seats.
(image per Poroti)
Who knew that Dutton was a closet Teal?
“I’m wondering if there are some other incorrectly-entered values in certain booths.”
So far I have found wrong counts in:
– Upwey in Casey – either Greens or Teal prefs have gone to Libs
-Rosanna in JagaJaga where it seems Greens prefs have gone to Lib
-Hornsby PrePoll in Bradfield where it looks like Lib/ALP split rather than Lib/ Teal split.
There was a mistake in Gerringong in Gilmore but that has now been fixed.
My question is – is there a notification process? why don’t the parties notice? or do the AEC do an audit before the final settlement. In Rosanna and Upwey, it was easy to see, a big swing against the prevailing flow.
I notice Albo framing climate change as an issue of national security at the Quad Meeting, very different from Morrison. Of course a number of federal departments (including Defence) have been saying this for years. It’s just that it took a Labor PM to listen and acknowledge.
“When on earth will the MSM give up? Did the MSM ever subject SfM to “tests”?”
I must say, I don’t expect any relenting from the media towards Albo being Satan. Kind of tells me that their job is now propaganda and aggression. Their tone and structure is all very aggressive and mainly ugly (Murdoch) with very sensible tut-tutting against ALP (9 papers).
Maybe the ALP needs a rival to the Daily Telegraph. Sure there’s a startup that covers pretty much the same stuff as Murdoch (sports mainly), but is not fanatically anti-ALP. Why do the right wing only set up newspapers (other than the Saturday Paper)?
“I’m wondering if there are some other incorrectly-entered values in certain booths.”
There’s one in Macnamara that was fixed today too. I pointed out the other day that the Elwood North booth strangely had 321 votes for the Liberal Democrats (18%). Today that was adjusted to 31 votes.
My understanding is that the AEC do check for such things blackburnpseph.
If Michael Sukkar survives in Deakin, as appears somewhat likely, I wonder if he might emerge as a dark horse leadership contender?
Yes he’s fairly junior but he has experience in an economic portfolio and he presents (arguably) better than Dutton (who wouldn’t). For example, he has a full head of hair. In politics, that’s no small thing.
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 4:04 pm
How much did the amount of coal being, burnt to produce power, fall by in the UK as the result?
Pi says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:10 pm
Cronus: I’m way out in far west Dickson out beyond Samford ”
“I have relos that live and have lived around there. If people don’t know, it is quite a beautiful part of the world. Nice.”
Yes we’re quite spoilt here, which makes it harder to believe we’re constituents of Dutton, Grrrrrr.
76 seats for Labor definitely, could be 77 or 78,
Gilmore and Brisbane will go down to the wire, I would not be so pessimistic about Fiona Phillips in Gilmore either, depends what is left to count there.
I assume everyone here is awarding Deakin to Sukkar, even though his current lead is only 77 votes
Trent don’t take it personally. Most of the posters on Poll Bludger are feral. Just insane ALP tragics.
Trent,
You’ve provided numbers but have not provided a realistic path for the Greens to win. And if the improbably path you have described comes to fruition to push the Greens ahead of Labor, it is not clear how the Libs will also get ahead of Labor which is necessary.
Last time there were 2 to 3 times the amount of non-right wing minors votes and the Greens had the donkey flow. Despite that they only got 1700 extra preferences over Labor
The Greens simply have no chance at all.
They all said Abbott was going to be a joke, I for one thought he would struggle, but as an opposition leader he destroyed a Labor government, although the real problem as always was the sitting government turned into a disaster and was thrown out after two terms.
If the Albanese government runs into huge problems, its not too hard for an opposition leader to make an impact.
Looks like I’ll just shut the f**k up then if trying to contribute annoys people so much.
This is true michael, although a truely inept Opposition Leader will squander even the advantages of a government on the ropes. See Labor 2019 after the Government spent 3 years tearing each other apart, including the unenviable spectacle of Deputy PM Joyce resigning due to a bonk ban.
Cronus: “Yes we’re quite spoilt here [in Dickson], which makes it harder to believe we’re constituents of Dutton, Grrrrrr.”
It has been discussed.
EDIT: At length.