Federal election live: day four

What now seems a certain Labor win in Bennelong leaves them one short of a majority, with a further three in-doubt seats as candidates to get them over the line.

Click here for full federal election results updated live.

The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.

The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.

New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,248 comments on “Federal election live: day four”

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  1. Trent, congrats to the Greens overall, an extra 2 or 3 lower house seats and more senators is not to be sneezed at. I am a Labor bloke from way back but I would probably agree too with the Greens take on a lot of things, social justice especially.

  2. michael says:
    Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:20 pm
    “They all said Abbott was going to be a joke, I for one thought he would struggle, but as an opposition leader he destroyed a Labor government, although the real problem as always was the sitting government turned into a disaster and was thrown out after two terms.
    If the Albanese government runs into huge problems, its not too hard for an opposition leader to make an impact.”

    Excellent, but all you’re doing is highlighting the Libs destructive (bulldozer) capacity as opposed to any nation building capacity.

  3. Australia’s major opinion polls all accurately predicted Saturday’s Labor election victory, in a boost to pollsters’ reputations after the industry-wide failure at the 2019 election.

    Surveys measuring voter sentiment throughout the campaign pointed to a Labor win, with the polls tightening in the final week before Saturday’s election.

    However the surge in support for the Greens and independents showed that the national two-party preferred measure that has traditionally been used to gauge an overall winner will be less able to paint a comprehensive prediction in elections where the most hotly contested seats are not between Labor and the Coalition.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/pollsters-breathe-sigh-of-relief-after-accurately-predicting-labors-election-victory

  4. Acting PM Richard Marles tells kieran gilbert that Labor has asked the Home Affairs boss to investigate how a text message about a boat intercept came to be issued as voters were at the polls on Saturday

  5. @ Trent

    “C@tmomma I’ve always thought you were very pleasant here ”

    Just don’t mention Bernie Sanders!

  6. The new MP for Tangney might surprise you in 3 years time, by all accounts he ran a fabulous campaign to unseat Ben Morton.

  7. No doubt she was assisted by her opponent’s campaign completely imploding, but Anika Wells has worked her butt off these last three years and absolutely deserves that huge swing.

  8. This is actually not a bad result legislatively for Labor, they effectively have 85-90 votes on the floor for social issues and climate and a smaller majority for wealth redistribution and equity/fairness. (If they wanted to open a new refugee detention centre on Macquarie Island, they could also rely on Liberal support.)

    I wonder how a future campaign by the Liberals based less on the economy and more on anti-wokeness will now play out.

  9. I think a crank is someone who is unable to post anything but the same one or two posts ad neuseum and tin-eared enough to ignore any arguments to the contrary or have any other opinions on anything outside of their obsessions

  10. Keep it up Trent.

    We don’t often get ‘the best’ regarding non labor bludgers and your contributions so far seem to be like 10000 times better than Firefox ‘cut n’ paste’ Greens social media efforts. Let alone the contributions from the likes of Steam Phallus, Taylor … Bree … or our resident trolls, nath and L’arse.

    I think the evolving federal political dynamics post Saturday will be absolutely fascinating to observe over at least the next 3 years. With not just the Greens now sitting on Albo’s left flank, but also the teals having smashed one of the central tenants of the 80 year old LNP marketing scam, there is plenty of opportunity – and potential pitfalls – for everybody on the field of play.

  11. @ C@tmomma

    I’d be bloody cranky too if I was serving in the US Senate what with the filibuster, Manchin and Sinema.

  12. Freya Stark

    I wonder how a future campaign by the Liberals based less on the economy and more on anti-wokeness will now play out.

    The size of the Sky After Dark audience may give a pointer . That’s anti-woke central.

  13. Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #792 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:17 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 4:04 pm

    From the Guardian live blog …

    Albanese was asked if he, like Thatcher, would close coal mines, and if he would sign the Cop26 pact to phase out coal.

    “No,” Albanese said.

    This is why the Teals and Greens did so well at the election … and will continue to do so.

    How much did the amount of coal being, burnt to produce power, fall by in the UK as the result?

    Do I have to do all your research for you?

    The UK has almost completely eliminated coal from their energy sector – total domestic consumption is down from 108 million tonnes per annum in 1990 to about 8 million tons by 2020. It is probably even less now – see https://www.statista.com/statistics/223493/uk-coal-consumption/

    More interesting is the decline in emissions directly as a result of this change from the energy sector in the same period. From 217 Mt CO2e in 1990 to 80 Mt CO2e in 2020. And again, it is probably even less now – see https://climate-change.data.gov.uk/emissions

    The overall reductions in GHG emissions seen from 1990 to 2020 were driven largely by a switch from using coal and heavy-emitting fuels in the energy supply and manufacturing industries to lower emission fuels such as natural gas and, more recently, renewable sources.

    The reductions are simply massive – the UK has reduced their emissions from the energy sector by an amount approaching our total emissions from the same sector.

    They are serious about reducing emissions. We are not.

  14. ” the cranks and the trolls”

    On PB!
    Who’d of thought?

    Go ya hardest Trent it adds to the ambience of the place.

  15. Have to say any green contribution that isn’t a bunch of recycled copy and paste Brandt Twitter posts is more than welcome

  16. Anthony Albanese
    @AlboMP
    ·
    8m
    Warmly welcomed my meeting with
    @narendramodi
    for an engaging discussion on Australia and India’s full strategic and economic agenda, including on clean energy technology. Australia-India ties have never been closer.

    That’s excellent, because we can’t keep enabling India with our fossil fuel exports.

  17. If your asking about Newspaper sales….I own a corner shop type business….we have a very healthy turnover, and good customer traffic….I have sold 2 copies today of the Adelaide Rupert….sales rise to about 20 on weekends….nobody under the age of 70 EVER buys one.

    Looking at archive sales they were 40 per day 20 years ago

  18. Brisbane Airport opened a new parallel runway in 2020, so the aircraft noise issue has reason to have increased since the last election (with the pandemic movement restrictions delaying some of the noise issues until more recently), with altered flight paths.

    https://www.bne.com.au/corporate/projects/bne-projects/completed-projects/brisbanes-new-runway

    Sydney Airport, which is busier, has a strict curfew system that can be contrasted with Brisbane`s curfew free status.

  19. Yes Thatcher closed UK coal mines, but not for environmental reasons, but rather because it was cheaper to import coal, principally from Poland I believe.

  20. Bellwether @ #870 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:02 pm

    @ C@tmomma

    I’d be bloody cranky too if I was serving in the US Senate what with the filibuster, Manchin and Sinema.

    There is that but I’d reserve my animus for Sinema more than Manchin. She started out as a Green, fcs! Then moved further and further right, nabbing a Senate seat in Arizona for the Democrats along the way. Manchin I can understand. He’s the only guy in West Virginia that could win a Senate seat for the Democrats and has provided his vote for plenty of Biden judges so far, and the Infrastructure package, if not much else.

  21. Evan and Andrew, full disclosure too I’m a swinging Labor & Greens voter, most commonly in the last 4-5 elections I’ve voted Greens federally and Labor state (ironically because I live in the state Greens seat of Prahran).

    So I’m definitely not trying to be a partisan troll 🙂 I did vote for the Greens in Macnamara on Saturday but would also be more than happy with Josh Burns retaining because he is a solid MP.

    If it was still Danby it would be a different story, he was actually the reason I voted Greens for the very first time.

  22. Rex.

    Indeed.

    We should be working with India (and Pakistan and Bangladesh) to help them transition to a solar/hydrogen economy. Imagine the trade that could bring!

  23. Freya Stark at 6:05 pm
    Now and again people here have posted tv ratings figures and newspaper circulation numbers. Can’t remember any of them but they were surprisingly small for the After Dark crew.

  24. Freya Stark says:
    Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:58 pm

    I wonder how a future campaign by the Liberals based less on the economy and more on anti-wokeness will now play out.
    _______________________

    Probably at best how they did this time, at worst the equivalent of the old man shouting at the clouds in the Simpsons.

    The other factor, what happens to the Freedum! votes? I cant see the fredummers having much relevance next time as 3 years from lockdowns and vax mandates will be ancient history by then

  25. Trent

    Ironically (because of the rubbish piled at us) almost all the Greens here preference the ALP and help get them voted in!

    It’s one of the strange aspects of this blog.

  26. BB:

    I think a crank is someone who is unable to post anything but the same one or two posts ad neuseum and tin-eared enough to ignore any arguments to the contrary or have any other opinions on anything outside of their obsessions

    Yep. They are basically the online equivalent of that obnoxious relative who will just rant on and on and on about the some damn thing at every family gathering.

  27. I see Constance is now leading in Gilmore by 104 votes. The Gerringong booth issue identified by Kevin Bonham has been fixed. Most of the postals have been counted, but on current trends those remaining to be counted will add a few more votes to Constance’s leads. It will come down to how the Absents break – more than 2,000 of them. In 2019, these favoured Labor 58:42, so this one is going to be very close. I’m tipping Constance by a short half head!

  28. I think Narendra Modi has just come out of an Indian heat wave of monumental proportions recently, then flooding Monsoonal rains, not to mention the melting of the glaciers in the Himalayas. As a politician who has come from the north of India he would be only too well aware of the effects of Global Heating.

  29. First big test as PM, Albanese has integrity something Morrison just didn’t have. You can trust his word. I reckon he’s passed the test set by channel 10

  30. Any word from Clive as to whether he is going to stop pissing a fortune up against the wall or does the ‘Kelly for Canberra’ wagon roll on ?

  31. @ C@tmomma

    What on earth is the point of Manchin being a Democrat Senator? In addition he and his family are shockingly corrupt. But they are both bad actors.

  32. Edit to the previous post as there is no edit function, If the Liberals lose the “Its the Economy stupid” anchor to their campaign they will be a busted flush, it was the only thing they really had in the public perception.

    If this new Govt can tame the eco uncertainty and emerge a winner, then it will be the 80s all over again.

  33. Bellwether @ #895 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:17 pm

    @ C@tmomma

    What on earth is the point of Manchin being a Democrat Senator? In addition he and his family are shockingly corrupt. But they are both bad actors.

    The point, as I said, in this term at least, is Biden judges and the Infrastructure Bill. Otherwise he’d be a Republican and Mitch McConnell would be Majority Leader.

  34. Freya Stark
    I wonder how a future campaign by the Liberals based less on the economy and more on anti-wokeness will now play out.
    —————————-
    The Liberals will be in opposition for a long time. Wokism is an Americanism that relates to race relations between Americans and African Americans so to be anti woke plays to the American South so has a point but its total nonsense in Australia so if the Liberals go down that path it wont end well.

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