Click here for full federal election results updated live.
The count failed to progress yesterday in many of the seats I rate as in doubt, but my system yesterday called Lingiari for Labor and Bradfield for the Liberals. It is clear Bennelong won’t be far off, with the second batch of postals reducing the Labor lead at the same insufficient rate as the first. That will leave Labor needing one further seat to get a majority, which might (or might not) be provided by Lyons, Brisbane and Gilmore, on which we are today none the wise.
The fresh two-candidate count in Cowper has dispelled any doubt that Nationals member Pat Conaghan will hold out against independent Caz Heise, whom he leads with 53.2% of the two-candidate vote. I’m projecting that come down to around 52-48 when the two-candidate count has caught up with the primary votes. The fresh count in Ryan records a slight lead for the LNP with about 12% completed, but this is because the booths counted so far lean conservative. My projection of a 2.6% winning margin for the Greens is based on the fact that preferences in the booths added so far are breaking nearly 70-30 in their favour. It is by the same logic that an 11.2% Greens margin over the LNP is projected in Griffith.
New batches of postal votes further shortened the odds on Liberal wins in Deakin, where Michael Sukkar has opened a 55-vote lead; Menzies, where the Liberal lead increased from 624 to 1748; and Sturt, where it increased from 723 to 982. My projection that Labor will ultimately win a squeaker in Deakin fails to properly account for the clear trend on postals, about 40% of which are still to come. That should add around 1000 votes to Sukkar’s margin, only about half of which Labor is likely to recover on absents. I should acknowledge though that I have no idea what the electronic assisted voting results have in store, which will include those in COVID-19 isolation, but my best guess is that they will be few in number.
Trent, congrats to the Greens overall, an extra 2 or 3 lower house seats and more senators is not to be sneezed at. I am a Labor bloke from way back but I would probably agree too with the Greens take on a lot of things, social justice especially.
michael says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:20 pm
“They all said Abbott was going to be a joke, I for one thought he would struggle, but as an opposition leader he destroyed a Labor government, although the real problem as always was the sitting government turned into a disaster and was thrown out after two terms.
If the Albanese government runs into huge problems, its not too hard for an opposition leader to make an impact.”
Excellent, but all you’re doing is highlighting the Libs destructive (bulldozer) capacity as opposed to any nation building capacity.
C@t, not by me
Australia’s major opinion polls all accurately predicted Saturday’s Labor election victory, in a boost to pollsters’ reputations after the industry-wide failure at the 2019 election.
Surveys measuring voter sentiment throughout the campaign pointed to a Labor win, with the polls tightening in the final week before Saturday’s election.
However the surge in support for the Greens and independents showed that the national two-party preferred measure that has traditionally been used to gauge an overall winner will be less able to paint a comprehensive prediction in elections where the most hotly contested seats are not between Labor and the Coalition.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/may/23/pollsters-breathe-sigh-of-relief-after-accurately-predicting-labors-election-victory
ratsak @ #848 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:53 pm
I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing? :}
Acting PM Richard Marles tells kieran gilbert that Labor has asked the Home Affairs boss to investigate how a text message about a boat intercept came to be issued as voters were at the polls on Saturday
@ Trent
“C@tmomma I’ve always thought you were very pleasant here ”
Just don’t mention Bernie Sanders!
BeaglieBoy @ #853 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:53 pm
#bighug#
FWIW C@t, I think you are more easy going these days. Last election not so much.
The new MP for Tangney might surprise you in 3 years time, by all accounts he ran a fabulous campaign to unseat Ben Morton.
Bellwether @ #857 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:55 pm
😆
Actually, speaking about Bernie Sanders, I heard the other day that he’s quite cranky himself and not very popular with other Senators!
nath @ #857 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:55 pm
I’d agree. I haven’t been called a grub for over a month.
Evan @ #860 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:55 pm
He’s also a former Buddhist Monk!
No doubt she was assisted by her opponent’s campaign completely imploding, but Anika Wells has worked her butt off these last three years and absolutely deserves that huge swing.
This is actually not a bad result legislatively for Labor, they effectively have 85-90 votes on the floor for social issues and climate and a smaller majority for wealth redistribution and equity/fairness. (If they wanted to open a new refugee detention centre on Macquarie Island, they could also rely on Liberal support.)
I wonder how a future campaign by the Liberals based less on the economy and more on anti-wokeness will now play out.
Rex Douglas @ #862 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:57 pm
‘Tis true. I’ve looked at myself in the mirror recently and finally I’m seeing an old lady. 🙁
Also, Mr Bowe read me the Riot Act. 😀
I think a crank is someone who is unable to post anything but the same one or two posts ad neuseum and tin-eared enough to ignore any arguments to the contrary or have any other opinions on anything outside of their obsessions
Asha @ #864 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:57 pm
I am gobsmacked at how she did it with a little bubby?
Keep it up Trent.
We don’t often get ‘the best’ regarding non labor bludgers and your contributions so far seem to be like 10000 times better than Firefox ‘cut n’ paste’ Greens social media efforts. Let alone the contributions from the likes of Steam Phallus, Taylor … Bree … or our resident trolls, nath and L’arse.
I think the evolving federal political dynamics post Saturday will be absolutely fascinating to observe over at least the next 3 years. With not just the Greens now sitting on Albo’s left flank, but also the teals having smashed one of the central tenants of the 80 year old LNP marketing scam, there is plenty of opportunity – and potential pitfalls – for everybody on the field of play.
@ C@tmomma
I’d be bloody cranky too if I was serving in the US Senate what with the filibuster, Manchin and Sinema.
Freya Stark
The size of the Sky After Dark audience may give a pointer . That’s anti-woke central.
@Poroti
Are annual stats on that available anywhere? And Murdoch Rag readership?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #792 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:17 pm
Do I have to do all your research for you?
The UK has almost completely eliminated coal from their energy sector – total domestic consumption is down from 108 million tonnes per annum in 1990 to about 8 million tons by 2020. It is probably even less now – see https://www.statista.com/statistics/223493/uk-coal-consumption/
More interesting is the decline in emissions directly as a result of this change from the energy sector in the same period. From 217 Mt CO2e in 1990 to 80 Mt CO2e in 2020. And again, it is probably even less now – see https://climate-change.data.gov.uk/emissions
The reductions are simply massive – the UK has reduced their emissions from the energy sector by an amount approaching our total emissions from the same sector.
They are serious about reducing emissions. We are not.
” the cranks and the trolls”
On PB!
Who’d of thought?
Go ya hardest Trent it adds to the ambience of the place.
Furtive Lawngnome @ #795 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 5:20 pm
And you’re not a very nice Greens person when you pop up.
Have to say any green contribution that isn’t a bunch of recycled copy and paste Brandt Twitter posts is more than welcome
That’s excellent, because we can’t keep enabling India with our fossil fuel exports.
Are we likely to get any more vote counting drops this evening? Or is it stumps?
If your asking about Newspaper sales….I own a corner shop type business….we have a very healthy turnover, and good customer traffic….I have sold 2 copies today of the Adelaide Rupert….sales rise to about 20 on weekends….nobody under the age of 70 EVER buys one.
Looking at archive sales they were 40 per day 20 years ago
Brisbane Airport opened a new parallel runway in 2020, so the aircraft noise issue has reason to have increased since the last election (with the pandemic movement restrictions delaying some of the noise issues until more recently), with altered flight paths.
https://www.bne.com.au/corporate/projects/bne-projects/completed-projects/brisbanes-new-runway
Sydney Airport, which is busier, has a strict curfew system that can be contrasted with Brisbane`s curfew free status.
Yes Thatcher closed UK coal mines, but not for environmental reasons, but rather because it was cheaper to import coal, principally from Poland I believe.
Bellwether @ #870 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:02 pm
There is that but I’d reserve my animus for Sinema more than Manchin. She started out as a Green, fcs! Then moved further and further right, nabbing a Senate seat in Arizona for the Democrats along the way. Manchin I can understand. He’s the only guy in West Virginia that could win a Senate seat for the Democrats and has provided his vote for plenty of Biden judges so far, and the Infrastructure package, if not much else.
Evan and Andrew, full disclosure too I’m a swinging Labor & Greens voter, most commonly in the last 4-5 elections I’ve voted Greens federally and Labor state (ironically because I live in the state Greens seat of Prahran).
So I’m definitely not trying to be a partisan troll 🙂 I did vote for the Greens in Macnamara on Saturday but would also be more than happy with Josh Burns retaining because he is a solid MP.
If it was still Danby it would be a different story, he was actually the reason I voted Greens for the very first time.
Rex.
Indeed.
We should be working with India (and Pakistan and Bangladesh) to help them transition to a solar/hydrogen economy. Imagine the trade that could bring!
Freya Stark at 6:05 pm
Now and again people here have posted tv ratings figures and newspaper circulation numbers. Can’t remember any of them but they were surprisingly small for the After Dark crew.
Freya Stark says:
Tuesday, May 24, 2022 at 5:58 pm
I wonder how a future campaign by the Liberals based less on the economy and more on anti-wokeness will now play out.
_______________________
Probably at best how they did this time, at worst the equivalent of the old man shouting at the clouds in the Simpsons.
The other factor, what happens to the Freedum! votes? I cant see the fredummers having much relevance next time as 3 years from lockdowns and vax mandates will be ancient history by then
Trent
Ironically (because of the rubbish piled at us) almost all the Greens here preference the ALP and help get them voted in!
It’s one of the strange aspects of this blog.
BB:
Yep. They are basically the online equivalent of that obnoxious relative who will just rant on and on and on about the some damn thing at every family gathering.
When I was young, what’s now called anti woke was known as bad manners.
I see Constance is now leading in Gilmore by 104 votes. The Gerringong booth issue identified by Kevin Bonham has been fixed. Most of the postals have been counted, but on current trends those remaining to be counted will add a few more votes to Constance’s leads. It will come down to how the Absents break – more than 2,000 of them. In 2019, these favoured Labor 58:42, so this one is going to be very close. I’m tipping Constance by a short half head!
I think Narendra Modi has just come out of an Indian heat wave of monumental proportions recently, then flooding Monsoonal rains, not to mention the melting of the glaciers in the Himalayas. As a politician who has come from the north of India he would be only too well aware of the effects of Global Heating.
I’m tipping Constance by a short half airhead!
Fixed it!
First big test as PM, Albanese has integrity something Morrison just didn’t have. You can trust his word. I reckon he’s passed the test set by channel 10
Any word from Clive as to whether he is going to stop pissing a fortune up against the wall or does the ‘Kelly for Canberra’ wagon roll on ?
@ C@tmomma
What on earth is the point of Manchin being a Democrat Senator? In addition he and his family are shockingly corrupt. But they are both bad actors.
Astrobleme @ #887 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:14 pm
So, maybe the Greens supporters should stop attacking US all the time?
About time for another poll isn’t it?
Edit to the previous post as there is no edit function, If the Liberals lose the “Its the Economy stupid” anchor to their campaign they will be a busted flush, it was the only thing they really had in the public perception.
If this new Govt can tame the eco uncertainty and emerge a winner, then it will be the 80s all over again.
Bellwether @ #895 Tuesday, May 24th, 2022 – 6:17 pm
The point, as I said, in this term at least, is Biden judges and the Infrastructure Bill. Otherwise he’d be a Republican and Mitch McConnell would be Majority Leader.
Freya Stark
I wonder how a future campaign by the Liberals based less on the economy and more on anti-wokeness will now play out.
—————————-
The Liberals will be in opposition for a long time. Wokism is an Americanism that relates to race relations between Americans and African Americans so to be anti woke plays to the American South so has a point but its total nonsense in Australia so if the Liberals go down that path it wont end well.