This is one of three new posts I have on offer, providing a thread for general discussion. The other two featured below deal with the ongoing counting for the House of Representatives, with Labor’s potential parliamentary majority remaining up in the air, and the race for the Senate, in which I expect Labor and the Greens to account for half the seats between them, but with a number of outcomes depending on complex flows of preferences.
Election results aside, the main item of news to relate is that the Liberal and Nationals party rooms will hold their first meetings to sort out party leadership positions. Peter Dutton and Sussan Ley will be confirmed as Liberal leader and deputy leader unopposed, but a contested vote looms for the Nationals, in which David Littleproud and Darren Chester will seek to depose Barnaby Joyce. In Joyce’s favour is the fact that the Nationals retained all their seats at the election; in Littleproud’s is the fact that Joyce had a lot to do with the Liberals losing so many of theirs, leaving the Nationals in opposition; Chester I’m guessing is a dark horse.
Thanks to The West Australian, Peter Dutton can be welcomed to the opposition leadership with the first published opinion poll of the new era, conducted on Thursday by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 1354 Western Australian respondents. It finds only 19% rating Peter Dutton a “suitable candidate” to lead the party, compared with 58% who registered a view to the contrary. Dutton’s positive ratings were 16% among women and 23% among men.
PS. I will be telling my Victorian friends to keep an eye out for Smithy’s Jag in the Cranbourne Hungry Jack’s drive-though after a big night on the town.
‘BK says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 9:29 am
Socrates
The word “maaaate” springs to mind.’
————————
What sprang to my mind was ‘ICAC’!
Sandman says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 9:28 am
“I am betting Dutton will put petrol on the culture wars and history wars and “woke” wars to appeal to populist social conservatives in the outer metropolitan and regional electorates”
Yes, I think the ‘culture wars scenario’ play to Dutton’s strength and is probably all he’s got going for him. Competent governing by Labor would be the best riposte to Dutton’s attempts, he brings so much baggage with him.
DuttMentumFlop..
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 8:16 am
Ven @ 8.08am,
Good analysis about Tassie and the NT. Probably applies to Queensland as well. It didn’t budge, except to The Greens in the inner city over localised issues.
”
It appears from the data that Centre-right and Centre-left were squeezed out/ or atleast suffered severe setback in QLD .
Whereas ALP won only 4 seats (i.e they lost one seat) Green won in 3 seats ( i.e. they squeezed out Centre-right and Centre-left candidates in Brisbane) and LNP squeezed out Centre-right and Centre-left candidates in rest of QLD.
QLD is like any State of USA, where Far-right wins in regional and rural areas and Centre-Left and Centre-right win in cities.
Ven
This suggests that finally, politically at least, Brisbane is maturing in a similar manner to Sydney and Melbourne.
Cronus
What is left in the culture wars? Trump is going the full Trans. The Republicans are going the full right to life/anti abortion and the full Guns! But it is hard to see these having legs.
Three years of no boats and three years of Labor standing up to the China Bully will kill these wedges. The China dog whistle xenophobia backfired everywhere except in parts of Queensland.
If Dutton has any sense he will work the hip pocket nerve.
I was exactly thinking whether “abandoning” the inner-city Teal seats to gain outer suburban seats would be an expedient and optimal move for the Dutton LNP Opposition.
This would be a strategy based on the propagation of “anti-woke” cultural wars, climate wars, isolationist international relations, and a general “non-kindness” towards all marginalised sections of the population. One should note that while there are high numbers of immigrants in the target electorates, they are extremely socially conservative and once they become naturalised in large numbers they are probably as a group even less tolerant than the general (white) population.
One thing that would be interesting to speculate is the fate of the Teal electorates. I believe that while they may be re-elected to second and third terms, when the Labor government fails (inevitably), the wealthy residents of Mosman and Bondi will vote Liberal to get rid of the Labor government. The Liberals might even be able to put up a conservative Right candidate in a Teal seat in those circumstances.
Interesting times…. I hope I live long enough to see whether my portents come to fruition!
Cronus
There is one culture war issue that he can ‘work’ to his political advantage: the Statement from the Heart.
I imagine he will simply roll over on ICAC and on the Jenkins Report recommendations.
Boerwar
Yes but some advocates are terrible at sticking to the positives of their cause and start overreaching so if the ALP can avoid that then the wedge loses its edge.
c@t: “meher baba,
Explain how Labor ‘are likely to slip up on boat people’? They’ve already sent the election day asylum seekers back to Sri Lanka and have publicly claimed, multiple times, that nothing will change under them.”
And John Howard said that the GST was dead and buried with a stake through its heart. Things change.
Perhaps “likely” was too strong a word for me to use, but the Albanese Government will face significant challenges here, and Dutton will be poised to seize on even the tiniest slip (which, to the extent that this will give further encouragement to the people smugglers, would be an unpatriotic thing to do: but this never seemed to bother the Libs in the 2007-13 period so I’d be surprised if their attitude has changed in the interim).
There are many Labor members – probably a sizeable majority – who would favour a change to the asylum-seeker policy implemented by the Libs. And this attitude is all but universal among the Greens, with whom Labor is going to have perform a difficult dance to get its legislation through the Senate. And then there are the various activist groups that were using the case of the Murugappans as a banner for their campaign to overturn the entire border protection system, and are unlikely to see their return to Biloela as anything like the end of the story.
And then there are the people smugglers who will be making efforts to test the Albanese Government’s commitment. (And it’s possible that the boat that arrived around election day was an initial challenge.)
I’m sure that Albo and Chalmers and co would like everyone to see the decision to “allow the Murugappans to return to Biloela” as a one-off, after which everything will settle down and the Government can merrily press on with Operation Sovereign Borders. However, I note that the family’s immigration status remains unresolved, with Chalmers’s press release stating that they will “reside lawfully in the community on bridging visas while they work towards the resolution of their immigration status, in accordance with Australian law.”
This isn’t necessarily going to be easy to manage. The only thing that was special about the Murugappans relative to large numbers of other failed asylum seekers – including no doubt those who arrived in the election day boat and were immediately sent packing – is the amount of publicity they (or others working on their behalf) were able to generate around their claimed connection to the Biloela community and around the ill-health suffered by both of their children. Their claims to refugee status were rejected by government officials, the appeals tribunal and by all levels of the judiciary. (As I understand it, an appeal against their deportation – on the basis of the process rather than the grounds – remains to be determined.)
Perhaps the government advisors and the bureaucracy will work out a clever way of determining that the Muguappans can be allowed to stay permanently without creating any sort of legal precedent. But many within the Australian community will no doubt see that decision as setting a moral precedent. And – unless they have given up completely (which is possible, but I rather doubt it ) – the people smugglers will most likely sense an opening and start testing the new government.
Following Rudd letting the drawbridge down in 2008, Gillard as PM and Bowen as immigration minister did a good job in keeping Labor on track with trying to maintain a solid border protection policy, but, to a considerable extent, the damage had been done. The Malaysian solution would have been a great way out of the problem, but – in a shameless act of pragmatism – the Coalition blocked it.
Albo doesn’t want to go down the same path as Rudd. But the decision on the Murugappans has immediately undermined the claim that nothing is going to change under Labor. Perhaps I’m overly concerned about it, but I see a considerable risk here for the Labor government.
”
Cronussays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 9:07 am
Ven
FWIW, I live in Dickson and I never heard the word/name Deves mentioned among even my diehard, SkyNews-watching Lib neighbours.
”
Dickson is a suburban QLD seat Whereas most of the QLD seats won by LNP are Regional and rural electorates and that is where IMO, this issue made some difference.
Boerwar
“ If Dutton has any sense he will work the hip pocket nerve.”
While this makes sense , it’s not his strength and the Coalition leave such a poor economic legacy that credibility will be a struggle. We do have short memories though.
”
Sandmansays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 9:11 am
C@tmommasays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 8:16 am
Ven @ 8.08am,
Good analysis about Tassie and the NT. Probably applies to Queensland as well. It didn’t budge, except to The Greens in the inner city over localised issues.
—
The Liberals certainly got slammed in inner city well to do electorates losing two seats and Labor lost one as well (Griffith). However, Labor was able to claw back votes in 9 Coalition seats in QLD, 7 of them to marginal status ahead of the next election. The 2PP is not finalized but on my most recent look at the AEC Labor has improved in all these seats.
Dickson (1.9) Swing – 2.7
Flynn (2.6) Swing – 6.1
Leichhardt (3.4) Swing- 0.8
Longman (3.2) Swing-0.1
Bonner (3.7) Swing – 3.7
Petrie (4.5) Swing -3.9
Forde (4.7) Swing -3.9
Bowman (5.5) Swing -4.7
Capricornia (5.5) Swing – 6.9
Labor also improved their PV lead in Blair (+4.3%), Lilley (+6.8%), Moreton (+2.8%), Oxley (+3.6%) and Rankin (+3.1%).
Putting aside the loss of Griffith to a brilliant grass roots campaign to the Greens, the Labor v Coalition battle in Queensland improved significantly at this election. It was always going to take two elections to recover the hiding Labor got in Queensland in 2019. I give Labor a tick for this election in Queensland despite the bar being pretty low.
Losing Griffith was not great for Labor, but the swing against Labor in these key seats in 2019 has been fundamentally reversed in 2022.
”
Sandman
I don’t agree with you because 2PP margins don’t mean much in QLD. For example, after 2016 election, margins in QLD were tight. But they blew out in 2019.
Why I don’t have much of a hope in next election is because both Libs leader and Nats leader could be from QLD i.e. Dutton and Littleproud.
Can someone explain how is it correct that 2 people elected on LNP ticket in QLD can be leaders of Libs and Nats nationally when they call themselves 2 different parties? How absurd is that.
MB
“However, I note that the family’s immigration status remains unresolved, with Chalmers’s press release stating that they will “reside lawfully in the community on bridging visas while they work towards the resolution of their immigration status, in accordance with Australian law.”
Yes – the Cth is/is not instructed to continue to oppose any applications for permanent visa etc is when “the rubber hits the road.”
Peter Dutton probably knows that a lot of Labor people don’t actually believe in our asylum seeker policy* but support it or let it through to the keeper to avoid political blowback. Rather the way many Liberals pretend to believe in Medicare, the NDIS and the need for climate action.
* as a usual Labor voter but not member I don’t
@Ven
While it’s true that Coalition margins got reduced in Queensland in most seats, this is a “high water mark” election for the anti-LNP participants. Things don’t look good for the centre-left in Queensland in the long term as their vote is only expected to decline from here.
In the next 30 years, a “good” election for the centre-left would result in them achieving about a similar result to today, not half the seats like Rudd did in 2007. A “bad” election might see them only winning three or four seats in inner Brisbane, and not by much. This is not unusual by world standards – Alberta did not yield a single non-Conservative seat during some of the Harper years in Canada.
”
BKsays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 9:16 am
Further to the announcement the demerger proposal at AGL won’t be going ahead, the chairman Peter Botten and CEO Graeme Hunt have confirmed they are stepping down from their positions.
It’s carnage!
”
And they were asked to go overseas and they are doing that. What does that mean BK?
“Rather the way many Liberals pretend to believe in Medicare, the NDIS and the need for climate action”
With the expected strategy of shifting further right, they don’t need to pretend any more.
2025 musing
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/47862#more-47862
No idea, Ven.
Boerwar: “There is one culture war issue that he can ‘work’ to his political advantage: the Statement from the Heart. I imagine he will simply roll over on ICAC and on the Jenkins Report recommendations.”
I think everything around the Statement from the Heart signals “danger, danger Will Robinson” for the Labor Government and provides a significant opportunity for right-wing opponents.
First there’s the name. It suggests to the average Australian that they are potentially going to be asked to accept policy decisions driven by the “heart” rather than the “head.” I’m not sure that’s a winner.
Secondly, there’s the “Indigenous Voice.” If this is something that is ever going to be taken to a referendum, it will need to be an extremely clear and simple proposition. The model for the Republic that went to the 1999 referendum was about as simple as could be devised, and was nevertheless successfully represented by the monarchists as being highly complex and involving a large number of changes to the Constitution with who knows what unintended effects.
A simple change to the Constitution would be to recognise Indigenous prior ownership of the land. Even this would no doubt generate a scare campaign from the far right, and would surely lose in Queensland and WA, but I reckon it would have a good chance of getting through in the other states and overall. But there’s a significant risk here: and a failed referendum would set things back a long way.
But the “Voice” thing: what exactly does this mean? If it’s just a rebirthing of ATSIC in an improved form, then it wouldn’t require a referendum but would be a bit ho-hum. But, if it involves the establishment of a sort of new, third chamber of parliament with significant powers – possibly including the power to win major financial reparations for past injustices – then I’m sorry but, like Malcolm Turnbull, I can’t see such a proposal ever getting up in a referendum (or, at least, not for many decades to come).
BW, I know you keep up with this issue more closely than I have the time to do. And I can see that the average Press Gallery journalist has struggled to explain it very well. Are you able to explain what is actually at stake here?
shellbell: “Yes – the Cth is/is not instructed to continue to oppose any applications for permanent visa etc is when “the rubber hits the road.””
Sorry, I don’t understand what you mean here. Decisions on visas are made by individual government officials on the merits of the case. Applications are not “opposed” or “supported”, they are simply considered. And this is the case even when courts get involved: courts can’t issue a visa themselves, they can only inform officials – or, where relevant, Ministers – where they got a decision wrong and demand that the process be gone through again on the basis of that advice (which, of course, will end in the issuing of a visa).
Perhaps there is a way that, under the relevant legislation, the officials can now find grounds to grant permanent residence to the Murugappans. Otherwise, the Minister has some powers to do so. The problem is going to be that, whatever grounds are found now, they are going to be tested again and again in future court cases by unsuccessful applicants.
Re the Reichspud and 19% . Remember Mr 18% and how that turned out !
Princeplanet at 7.13
“In Australia we can get het up about peripheral issues but mostly we vote on bread and butter stuff…”
I reckon compulsory voting is a factor in this. With optional voting, Trumpists can whip up rage about kulcha stuff and mobilise a base, while using all sorts of (often anti-democratic) methods to discourage opponents from voting at all.
With compulsory voting, nobody has to be ‘mobilised’ to vote and a lot of voters are politically disengaged, so ‘bread and butter’ becomes the most obvious battleground. Another reason why I thought Morrison’s campaign was poor.
Did he make the assessment he couldn’t win on ‘bread and butter’ and thus chose a kulcha war Hail Mary? Still doesn’t seem to stack up…
Cronus
My take on ‘Deves’ issue is that it may not be an important issue for Tories as such but it reinforced their belief and faith that only LNP can look after the issues which are important to them. Maybe that is reason Dutton won Dickson with a tight margin although he was a terrible minister.
If the global economy hits the shit (quite likely) it will be easy for Voldemort in Opposition. All economic pain will be blamed on Labor. Just like Abbott, questions won’t be asked re what they would do , just saying ‘we have a plan’ was enough for Tones . It will be the same for the Reichspud’s crew.
Now let’s hope Labor picked up a few tips on how to counter that crap .
Get much of this rain over your way BK?
We got it in buckets. No way the Mt Lofty rain gauge is relevant to the surrounding area. 55mm? Ha. My rough gauge was well over 70mm at 7am and more came in between 7 and 9. They should upgrade the Uraidla weather station and publish it IMO.
Belated (it usually is, in my world) thanks, BK
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-the-liberal-party-doesn-t-need-quotas-for-women-20220529-p5apch.html
So, really deriving lessons from the election, eh?
When was the last time the Coalition had a Queensland leader of the Liberal or National Party ? I don’t remember any in my lifetime.
Jan
We got about 55mm – approx 9% of average annual rainfall.
The Lorax says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 9:34 am
…
Interesting times. My personal view is that Labor’s 43% target will be very difficult to achieve in reality, and the Greens and Teals targets (while closer to what the science requires) are wildly unrealistic. 2030 is only 7.5 years away.
I agree, the time to start is now. The number we are aiming for is not that important, the number we get is.
It is interesting, the Greens have further complicated the issue by demanding mines etc close down. That will be easy for the Teals, Labor and the Liberals to ignore.
Lets hope we don’t have a repeat of the Greens previous efforts where they derail the whole process in the name of perfection.
The next few months will be interesting, can we all just get on with it, or are we in for more years of bullshit.
They know how the right and their media behave in opposition. It aint gonna change from last time. So, yes, hopefully they have strategies. Calmness in the face of rabidity would be one.
People changed their votes this time because they were sick of the Coalition BS. A party that stood for nothing but spin and gravy. A party that divides and conquers – win at all and any cost, where the national interest doesnt factor. None of this will change and that is a fact to constantly remind journos of.
Sandman
They tried to get one once 😆
Sandman says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 10:37 am
When was the last time the Coalition had a Queensland leader of the Liberal or National Party ? I don’t remember any in my lifetime.
Queensland hasn’t had a Liberal party since 2008 so we are not likely to get a Liberal leader from Queensland any time soon, if ever.
”
Snappy Tomsays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 10:27 am
Princeplanet at 7.13
“In Australia we can get het up about peripheral issues but mostly we vote on bread and butter stuff…”
I reckon compulsory voting is a factor in this. With optional voting, Trumpists can whip up rage about kulcha stuff and mobilise a base, while using all sorts of (often anti-democratic) methods to discourage opponents from voting at all.
With compulsory voting, nobody has to be ‘mobilised’ to vote and a lot of voters are politically disengaged, so ‘bread and butter’ becomes the most obvious battleground. Another reason why I thought Morrison’s campaign was poor.
Did he make the assessment he couldn’t win on ‘bread and butter’ and thus chose a kulcha war Hail Mary? Still doesn’t seem to stack up…
”
ST
It is true that Libs lost seats because of issues like ‘Deves’ but those issues reinforced belief of voters in Regional and rural electorates that only LNP can look after them on those issues thus saving them seats (aka saving furniture) in Regional and rural areas.
55mm. Nice. And more dribs and drabs this week to hopefully soak it in.
The rain seemed to reach a fair way up north too.
UK Cartoons:
Mr 18% was Howard was preferred Prime Minister by 18% of the population.
Dutton is preferred Liberal Leader by 19% of the Population.
Slight difference.
I think Nelson had the worst figures when it was 9% PPM.
Ven says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 9:57 am
”
Cronussays:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 9:07 am
Ven
FWIW, I live in Dickson and I never heard the word/name Deves mentioned among even my diehard, SkyNews-watching Lib neighbours.
”
“Dickson is a suburban QLD seat Whereas most of the QLD seats won by LNP are Regional and rural electorates and that is where IMO, this issue made some difference.”
Yes, I live in semi-rural Dickson and sometimes forget that Dickson has both suburban and rural areas. The not insignificant semi-rural area I reside in probably predisposes it towards conservative voting.
@Snappy Tom: The Age for some reason has given this Roshena Campbell character a platform all election campaign to spout Liberal talking points in the most obvious and unpersuasive way, and apparently it’s still going on. A prerequisite to me actually subscribing to Fairfax with actual money again is if they got rid of regular columnists who are party political hacks like Campbell (I had a faint hope when they ditched Vanstone, but then….) and had some accountability for really dreadful reporting like, oh, Coorey. The occasional party political piece, always with equally prominent right of reply, should be left for special occasions and bylined so it’s clearly a party political piece. Regular contributors should not be hacks.
Seriously, Campbell makes Parnell McGuiness look reasonable by comparison. Campbell and Tim Smith are probably best mates.
“The Liberals might even be able to put up a conservative Right candidate in a Teal seat in those circumstances.”
Keep dreaming Freya
Jan
Listening to PK on RN talking to a Coalition person this morning was a real shock. They spoke fluent ‘human’ rather than vacuous nothingness and spin and PR. They answered questions and offered personal opinions that sounded genuine. It was quite disorientating. I’m not sure who it was as I couldn’t listen until the end . May have been Zimmerman. Whoever it was the difference between the ‘Birmingham drone clones’ and them was incredibly stark.
Warren Truss was the leader of the Nats only 6 years ago.
I am not surprised that you have forgotten
(Before that Artie Fadden)
On SA rainfall. This map on BoM produces a much wider range of weather stations than rest of site http://www.bom.gov.au/sa/flood/southeast.shtml
Not sure if Uraidla is there – bit crowded. Clicking on map helps with resolution a bit. Updates regularly during the day. Not sure why all this data isn’t more accessible.
50mm in my patch on Adelaide Plains
“Peter Dutton has the worldview of a Queensland cop. It’s in our interests to give him a go”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/peter-dutton-has-the-worldview-of-a-queensland-cop-it-s-in-our-interests-to-give-him-a-go-20220527-p5ap3u.html
From the article, presented without comment:
“Dutton, as a former Queensland cop, has seen Aboriginal disadvantage up close, and perhaps he believed the apology was tokenistic.”
Ven
Ven says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 10:07 am
“Can someone explain how is it correct that 2 people elected on LNP ticket in QLD can be leaders of Libs and Nats nationally when they call themselves 2 different parties? How absurd is that.”
Yep, welcome to our world. Trying to make sense of the non-sensical.
With Dutton’s post copper career wouldn’t he be more ‘White Shoe Brigade’ now than ‘Queensland Plod’ ?
Cronus at 8.58
[bug1 says:
Monday, May 30, 2022 at 7:45 am
“Coalition MP Stuart Robert warns Labor’s spending will put Australia’s triple-A credit rating at risk.” – AFR
“I guess Stuart Robert is going to be the new Shadow Treasurer, he was assistant”
I might’ve thought it was the Coalition’s trillion dollar debt that was the major cause of the problem. Silly Stuart for overlooking this.]
Isn’t it magical? $1trn of Coalition debt is transmogrified into ‘Labor spending’ (which is only a tiny fraction higher than Coalition budgeted soending)! Abracadabra!
Seriously, this is all part of the ‘superior economic managers’ propaganda war, which the Coalition has won almost all the time since federation.
Labor is going to have to accuse the Coalition of dishonesty in budgeting to avoid being seen as economic lightweights.