I was hoping Newspoll might be back in the game three weeks after election day, but it seems normal service is yet to resume. Presumably Essential Research will have numbers of some sort tomorrow, but it remains to be seen if they will encompass voting intention. I hope to have more to offer shortly on whether other pollsters are still in the game in the immediate term, or whether they have pulled stumps for the time being. That just leaves me with the following miscellany to relate by way of a new open thread post:
• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reported yesterday on a plan within the Western Australian Liberals to have former test cricketer and national team coach Justin Langer lead the party into the next state election in 2025. The suggestion is that the current leader, David Honey, might be persuaded to relinquish his seat of Cottesloe, one of only two lower house seats the party retained at the 2021 election. It is an any case “widely accepted that Dr Honey won’t lead the WA Liberals to the next election”, with Vasse MP Libby Mettams “his likely replacement” – indeed his only possible replacement out of the existing ranks of the Liberals’ lower house contingent.
• Katina Curtis and Shane Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald have taken the trouble to compile the results of the 75,368 telephone votes cast by those in COVID-19 isolation, finding that Labor, Greens or independents candidates out-performed on them on two-candidate preferred relative to the overall results in all but eight lower house seats. Kevin Bonham is quoted in the article noting that infections are more prevalent of left-leaning demographics, namely the young and those employed in exposed occupations, though I also tend to think there may be a greater tendency for those on the right of politics to keep their illnesses to themselves.
• One bit of poll news at least: the latest quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS has been published, the first since Jeremy Rockliff succeeded Peter Gutwein as Premier. It finds the Liberals down two points since March to 39%, Labor down one to 30%, the Greens up one to 13% and others up two to 18%. Rockliff leads Labor’s Rebecca White 47-34 as preferred premier, compared with Gutwein’s lead of 52-33 in March. The poll was conducted May 27 to June 2 through telephone interviews from a sample of 1000.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports that Julie-Ann Campbell, Queensland Labor’s outgoing state secretary and now associate partner with consultancy firm EY, is “expected to run for federal politics” – specifically for the seat of Moreton, which Graham Perrett has held for Labor since 2007.
There’s a fair bit going on at the site at the moment, so here’s a quick run-through the subjects of recent posts with on-topic discussion threads, as opposed to the open thread on this post:
• The future direction of the Liberal Party, with debate raging as to whether it should focus on recovering blue-ribbon seats from the teal independents or cutting them loose and pursuing a new course through suburban and regional seats traditionally held by Labor;
• The three state by-elections looming in the Queensland seat of Callide, the South Australian seat of Bragg and the Western Australian seat of North West Central;
• The ongoing count from the federal election, which remains of interest in relation to several Senate contests, with the pressing of the button looking reasonably imminent in South Australia and the two territories.
Is Adrian Beaumont posting anything on the French parliamentary elections?
Good stuff D&M. Absolutely well done.
COMPANION (AC) IN THE GENERAL DIVISION OF THE ORDER OF AUSTRALIA
Boerwar at 8.56
Are the NSW Liberals eating each other alive?
So sad.
___________________
I think the NSW Liberals somewhat resemble the federal party about 5 years ago. Not exactly – the feds were then led by a moderate. The resemblance is that the NSW Libs at least have Moderates in high places.
I suspect the Libs’ public standing would have benefitted by replacing Gladys with Matt K, but he didn’t have the partyroom numbers.
Elliott is proving the Right would like to eat the Moderates. Kean, by criticising Morrison during the federal campaign, might be showing the NSW Moderates have realised they are in danger of becoming ‘Dave Sharmas’ [other names of federal Moderates could be substituted]: what’s the point of having Moderates if the support the Right 99% of the time?
I think Kean’s prominence in recent funding announcements is not just because he’s Treasurer, but because he’s the Moderate facade they need to have any hope at next year’s election.
The differences between the NSW Libs and the feds are: the NSW Libs seem to at least partially recognise the problem; and the NSW Libs actually have some useful Moderates left.
Popcorn time.
Socrates @ #41 Monday, June 13th, 2022 – 9:23 am
So select ADF officers get a gong for just doing their jobs?!
I was hoping to watch the next instalment of the Jan 6 Committee Public Hearings, and it turns out it’s scheduled for midnight tonight Brisbane time. So I thought, oh well, I’ll catch up with it Tuesday morning. Then I see that the video of the first public hearing now has an age limit on it. Unless I give google photo ID (google prefers a drivers license) or a valid credit card, I’m out of luck. Do I trust google with that detail? No. So I guess I’m out of luck. I’m glad I watched it before someone got age sensitive about it.
* I wonder if the 2nd hearing will be age limited.
* I wonder if this will limit others from re-watching that first hearing.
* I wonder if it is in the interests of the Jan 6 committee (or someone) to make an edited video that isn’t age limited.
D&M
Is there a citation you might share with us?
UK Cartoons:
By popular request as shown on insiders, here is “The Walk of No Shame” – Johannes Leak:
zoomster @ #17 Monday, June 13th, 2022 – 6:16 am
Does leadership have any meaning at this level?
#weatheronPB
Speckled clouds float in blue.
A streak of dark feathers flash by.
The sun warms my face.
(It’s nice out.)
Socrates says:
Monday, June 13, 2022 at 12:00 am
Frednk
Yes Batteries are a logical solution too. Though cars are at home during the day more than people assume, based on the survey, at least on the weekend. Most EV batteries are already big enough to power a car for a working week and recharge on the weekend.
There is also a lot of discussion in the infrastructure field about options like large scale PV panels on rooves to allow EV charging at shopping centre and office car parks etc. This may be cheaper than the battery option. The PV panels are cheap.
So electricians are going to be taught AS/NZS 5139:2019 exists.
People are starting to worry and my field is MV substations so when they worry the number of spots in large.
Large group of city units is easy
No solar cells ( no room)
No batteries ( not needed)
1) You don’t buy a city unit to commute. So the cars may be there.
2) But if they exists they may want them fully charged most likely at the weekend.
If you are going to discharge their batteries at peak times ( and there is a real market incentive to do so) then you have to offer different supply plans, and clearly you have to put a limit on it, you don’t want discharged cars.
If you really want to discharge you need to install the distribution system to support it. The voltage drop requirements for generation are about half that for load. That means if you are going to use the cars batteries you have to have a lot more metal in place. There are solid technical reasons for that.
On the other side of the coin (charging them), it is ok. People sleep at night, electricity at night ( at the moment) is cheap, and your infrastructure is unused, you can charge them. But you need to offer a different rate/plan.
The most expensive option, plug in you get charged. It has to be available.
Entertainment is harder
Big arguments here. One party arguing, typical trip is less than 1/2 hour, only need to provide top up.
My argument. If your traveling you will have to do two things, eat and charge. Fast chargers in large quantities are not going to happen, and they are never going to to be fast. The Tesla is now at 100 KWH.
Just do the the maths.
As an entertainment center you have to decide if you want that market. A 30 amp three phase charger, is a recharging at about 20KW per hour.
Stationary batteries would help a lot, you could use the network to top up the batteries and remove the shock load that would occur if 40 cars show up for lunch.
I think there is big commercial opportunities in this space.
Service stations
Been told by the utility you will not be given the connection to deal with the loads involved. See entertainment center. Pull in 15 min to fill up, do the maths, not going to happen. Utilities have already worked it out. Have you noted new service stations on long haul freeways all have facilities for sit down meals.
I don’t think the suburban service station will survive.
Home
This is where most of the action is going to happen.
We have two problems
1) AS it stands now, solar systems have to be curtailed because there is too many installed. Solved by either local batteries or community battery on the LV side of the transformer. Look up the pole. Our domestic installation is not in the same ballpark as is needed for fast charge.
The domestic load is going to go through the roof. Can solve part of the problem by controlling the charger and have it charge at night.
The solution is solar charging if the car is at home during the day, and I agree, all cars owned by public transport commenters leave their cars at home. Batteries or community batteries if car is used for the commute.
Bob Lynch at 9.37 re French election…
At least the French ‘major’ parties are a choice between Centre (Macron’s group) and Left (Melenchon’s). Despite Le Pen’s (hard Right) prominence in the presidential election, she only just edged out Melenchon for 2nd spot in that race. Her party seems to go nowhere in parliamentary elections.
Overall, I think I prefer the available spectrum in France.
They use a kind of hybrid FPTP – lots of seat candidates in the first round, then a top 2 runoff if nobody gets 50%+1 in a seat. Better than the UK!
The Lying Reactionaries are in danger of becoming politically obsolete. They are essentially irrelevant to the problems faced by contemporary Australia. Another 25 years or so of electoral defeats might persuade them to retire.
In WA the really very comical thing is the reform review is being led by Bill Hassell. Bill is an affable enough bloke. But a reformer he is not. Ludicrous Liberals.
Barney at 9.59 re WA Lib leadership…
Further existential question: do the words ‘leadership’ and ‘Liberal’ belong in the same sentence?
Maybe in this sentence: Not a leader, just a Liberal.
Congratulaions, D&M.
Look, I know D & M’s real name outside of Poll Bludger and it’s not the same as Anne Josephine GREEN on the AC list.
Late Riser says:
Monday, June 13, 2022 at 9:52 am
I was hoping to watch the next instalment of the Jan 6 Committee Public Hearings, and it turns out it’s scheduled for midnight tonight Brisbane time. So I thought, oh well, I’ll catch up with it Tuesday morning. Then I see that the video of the first public hearing now has an age limit on it. Unless I give google photo ID (google prefers a drivers license) or a valid credit card, I’m out of luck. Do I trust google with that detail? No. So I guess I’m out of luck. I’m glad I watched it before someone got age sensitive about it.
* I wonder if the 2nd hearing will be age limited.
* I wonder if this will limit others from re-watching that first hearing.
* I wonder if it is in the interests of the Jan 6 committee (or someone) to make an edited video that isn’t age limited.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4xFhhwLl5I&ab_channel=ABCNews%28Australia%29
If you don’t consider me an authoritative source, and I know for many that would be their default position, then ask ItzaDream. He knows who D + M is as well.
It’s Time says:
Monday, June 13, 2022 at 9:52 am
Socrates @ #41 Monday, June 13th, 2022 – 9:23 am
Cat
“Yes I agree this was a very Morrisonesque honours list. A reward for all those who unquestioningly followed the party line.
Good to see lots of medicos honoured. From Xanthippe’s experience in the Adelaide W&C Hospital I still don’t think most people have any understanding of how many extra hours of work doctors and nurses did during the pandemic. Huge.
Why we needed to honour 37 separate ADF members when the main event was the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan I do not understand. And why still pretend the National Party is a major force in Australian politics?
So select ADF officers get a gong for just doing their jobs?!”
And that about sums it up perectly.
frednk @ #NaN Monday, June 13th, 2022 – 10:11 am
Late Riser,
I’m watching it just fine on You Tube right now.
Sorry, Late Riser, it’s just a repeat of the Jun 10 hearing. 😳
D&M congrats!
frednk at 10.01
Fast chargers in large quantities are not going to happen…
____________________
I don’t understand your argument. Tesla already has a network of Superchargers (120kW, I think) based on the range of a Model 3 Standard Range Plus, that would enable one to drive a Tesla from Hervey Bay (QLD) to Adelaide. Not the most direct route, but using the Bruce, Pacific, Hume and Dukes hwys. Tesla cars can also access many non-Tesla 50kW chargers, opening up travel on some regional routes (although charging times are slower than Superchargers.)
I’m not sure why you think fast chargers will never be in adequate supply.
Quick comment on EVs. I’m wondering if there are two main “use cases”. There’s the daily commute and there’s the weekend drive, which might include a trip to Colesworth. If public transport can solve the former then the dominant use case is on the weekend, so most EVs might sit idle at home for 5 days in 7. Does this change anything in terms of grid, community batteries, need for fast chargers, etc?
OK, a muse on gun shootings in America.
Yes, gun reforms are certainly necessary, but the availability of guns doesn’t seem to be the whole problem.
I’m wondering how much the culture of the US – the ‘everyone can make it, you haven’t made it, therefore you’re a failure’ – has to do with it.
For some, the realisation that they can’t make it – despite buying into the belief – will hit early.
School shootings seem to be an extension of ‘suicide by cop’ – one where you get your end result (death) with the added bonus of posthumous notoriety – “My name will live forever.”
The ‘suicide by cop’ helps explain the callousness – they’re not planning to have time for remorse.
Frednk
Thanks, very interesting. Electric grid design is not my field so happy to take your word for it on load requirements.
For those without panels charging at night/when demand is low could be beneficial if it helps improve utilization of renewable energy off peak. So does this improve the economics of renewable energy?
For entertainment it varies by type. We already had one client before covid who was interested in putting in charging for part of their shopping centre (big roof) underground car park. If the centre has a cinema those parkers stay long enough to make charging attractive.
I agree with you on the suburban service station. Unless it is on a major arterial road with a component of long distance traffic it looks doomed. Lots of sites to redevelop.
I think this was why oil companies were pushing H2 cars so hard. H2 refuelling would have kept the servo viable with a new product. Otherwise they are a large sunk cost for oil companies.
Absolutely home charging will be the majority. If your EV can last five days you will charge at home on your least busy day.
C@tmomma @ #62 Monday, June 13th, 2022 – 10:13 am
Copy that. D&M is not known to me as Anne Green.
#weatheronPB
Sydney: clear blue skies, a bit breezy, 4° at Olympic Park at dawn, on the way to about 17°. Haven’t seen a cloud in a week.
This is what I see for the hearing video. 🙁
Late Riser
In demand terms the weekend drive is rarely done every weekend. For most people the day to day commuting (and increasingly dropping kids to school) is the bulk of driving.
Australia badly needs better PT. In Sydney (highest PT mode share) it is around 20% of trips. In Melbourne and Brisbane 12% to 10%, others less.
So getting affordable EVs into the suburbs is crucial to Australia meeting any zero GHG target for transport.
Snappy Tom
“ Fast chargers in large quantities are not going to happen…
____________________
I don’t understand your argument. Tesla already has a network of Supercharger”
Australia has 20 million light vehicles and sells one million per year. EVs are now about 40,000, much less than 1% of the total. EVs are 2% of sales. Teslas fast chargers are good, but in terms of total transport energy demand, the nation’s entire fleet of Teslas is a drop in the bucket.
It will take us two decades to catch up a decade of bad policy.
ItzaDream @ #69 Monday, June 13th, 2022 – 8:18 am
Interesting.
I just read this interview with her and it seemed to match D&M very closely.
https://www.sheisanastronomer.org/profiles/australasia/anne-green
I thought D&M lived in the Waterloo/Alexandria area. Professor Green AC is listed as living in Mosman – a fair way away.
Is it possible that astrophysics in Australia could accommodate two female members of the discipline?
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #NaN Monday, June 13th, 2022 – 10:28 am
Okay, looking at the picture, DEFINITELY NOT D&M.
Itza and I met her at the previous Bludger lunch. She is a brunette for a start. And at UNSW. This other woman is probably a colleague.
TPOF @ #NaN Monday, June 13th, 2022 – 10:32 am
Exactly. A wee bit sexist to think only one woman could be so esteemed in the field.
Better to say that D&M’s time will come. 🙂
frednk & Socrates re EV charging…
I can see highway service centres, which usually have food outlets, easily being places where EV drivers ‘lunch and fast-charge.’ That infrastructure is already being built.
Our local shopping complex has a cinema and some ‘medium paced’ (6.6kW) EV charging spaces. Pretty easy to No idea if they have solar on their roof.
I can certainly see the idea of ‘doing something else while your car spends 30+ mins fast charging’ being the new normal on long trips.
On the other hand, Ms Snappy and I drive a recent Camry Hybrid. 5l/100km economy. On a full tank, we can easily drive from Maitland to my in-laws in Brisbane. If we take packed lunches, we have a couple of 5 minute ‘bathroom breaks.’ Makes for a very fast trip.
I once heard of US researchers working on liquid electrolytes for batteries. The possibility was you could pull your EV into a service station, drain the spent liquid electrolyte (which is re-charged at the station) and refill with already-re-charged liquid electrolyte. Almost as fast as putting petrol in an ICE car. Not sure if this is still a thing…
Socrates
“In demand terms the weekend drive is rarely done every weekend. ”
Which, with good PT, would mean to even less than 2 days out of 7 that your EV would be on the road. Taken over 30 days, is it closer to 2 in 30? Improving PT using EV sounds like an attractive social step. People could even keep their fossil-fuel machines for the weekend during the transition.
As an example, you mention getting the kids to school . My kids grew up in the USA. They were picked up from our front door by public School Bus (those bright yellow things you see in almost all US shows) and returned the same way. Why not do that here?
Irrespective, Anne Green is impressive..
Prof Anne Green given Companion of the Order of Australia
Anne Green is one of several female scientists given the country’s highest recognition for her work, which has included a pioneering role in physics, AAP reports.
When Green began her career studying the stars, women were such a rarity in the male-dominated field that special provisions had to be made:
When I first went to the telescope to observe, I was given the professor’s room because it was the only one with a shower; they hadn’t even considered that there would be women astronomers.
Professor Green’s 50-year career in astrophysics and astronomy has been dotted with firsts.
She was the first female PhD physics student at Sydney University, receiving her doctorate in 1973. She went on to become one of the first female radio astronomers and the university’s first female head of physics.
Much of her work involved mapping the Milky Way and studying the remnants of exploded stars, known as supernovae.
Green was one of several female scientists to be recognised with the top award in the Queen’s Birthday Honours List.
She was appointed as a Companion of the Order of Australia for her contributions to science as a researcher, educator and mentor.
I’ve had opportunities in my career that, in hindsight, I’m gobsmacked about, but every time I’ve been offered an opportunity, I’ve accepted the challenge. That’s something I’ve always said to young scientists, particularly women, to take the challenge when it’s offered.
Socrates at 10.28
It will take us two decades to catch up a decade of bad policy.
_______________________
So, yes we have fast chargers today, but only for a tiny segment of the car market…and we’d need to build a LOT more chargers…
Oh. Apologies to D&M.
LR
The big problem with getting kids to school in Australia is the proliferation of private schools, some of which draw kids across a huge area.
We should still get more buses for schools and otherwise.
A better solution would be a larger number of smaller schools that kids could walk to. So much healthier. The education genius who dreamt up the “superschools” policy in SA should be sacked. Terrible social outcomes.
Have a good day all.
The Corruption of Thieves was contagious.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/13/ndis-crackdown-welcomed-by-advocates-as-organised-gangs-infiltrate-scheme
ItzaDream @ #69 Monday, June 13th, 2022 – 10:18 am
Thanks Itza & C@t. My apologies to Bludgers- especially to D&M. I put 2 & 2 together and made 5 (an occupational hazard for ID Physicians). A more thorough search of Australian female astronomers would have revealed that there is another impressive candidate, somewhat younger than Emeritus Professor Green.
Oh,oh. I’m a victim of fake news! 🙂
Well, I think it is about time a Bludger DID get a gong.
But which Bludger? And what gong?
The West Australian follows up the Langer to lead the liberals fantasy by talking to the man himself.
He denies it all.
“I have no idea where it’s coming from,” he said.
Further down we hear from Barry Court, son of Charles, brother of Richard, husband of Margaret and a former WA Liberal president.
“Justin and Margaret are great sporting personalities and talk regularly,”
Mr Court said.
“Margaret has spoken to him recently (about entering politics). Every time I wave to him , he knows what I am saying.”
I’m not sure Margaret Court picking their next leader is what the WA Liberals need right now.
While Biden points at Putin and the Republicans point at the Democrats as being to blame for inflation this NYT article names who they consider to blame. Spoiler Alert , it ain’t Vlad or Joe.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/11/opinion/fed-federal-reserve-inflation-democrats.html
Rossmcg at 10:48 am
That noise you can hear in the background is Mark McGowan shouting “Oooh , yes it is !!!” 🙂
Snappy Tom from that last hint I think I know you.
Was your father a Typesetter?
Snappy Tom
in the past I am as guilty as you of driving without stops, the 24 hour drive from Melbourne to Queensland with two drivers is over.
Going to to have to change our behavior.
Re fast charge.
100KW charger will charge your car from about flat to about full an hour. A sit down meal and your car is charged. It’s not fast but it is ok. So lets forget about the 15 min charge and treat the 1 hour charge as realistic and the fast charge.
At the moment we have Tesla fast charging stations, the typical install is what, 5 units?
Total load 500KWH, that is not a difficult install.
Now look at a freeway service station, you have to have enough units for an hours worth of traffic. As they stand they service over 50 customers an hour, maybe more but lets go with that. The load is going to be blocked as people will stop for lunch etc.. but lets ignore that.
50*100 = 5 MW. That is a serious substation.
They will get installed, because they will have to be for long distance driving. Behavior has to change however, you sit down for a meal.
Batteries will unblock the load, that is at lunch you will have the network and charged batteries to service your customer, more charging stations for the connection agreement utility is willing to give
Solar cells will reduce your costs and there is the roof space to install a large amount, and why not offer covered charging stations.
As to the shopping center. If the car comes with a small charger, what you going to do, plug it in at home or go for a shopping center charger.
At the moment you find a few ( my experience a few that don’t work). Are shopping centers going to install hundreds of them.
It is all going to change; electric cars are coming, we need to be realistic about what needs to be done.
I understand Nikki Savva is writing a book on the demise of the Morrison Government.
It will make her last effort look like Camelot…