Despite the polls not having failed as such, in that they uniformly picked the right winner, it seems we’re having another post-election voting intention polling drought just like we did in 2019. This is unfortunate from my perspective, as it would be interesting to compare Labor’s strength during its honeymoon period with that of newly elected governments past. It also means I have to work harder on material for regular open thread posts. Here’s what I’ve got this time:
• The Reuters Institute last week published its international Digital News Report 2022, the Australian segment of which was conducted by the University of Canberra, which asked questions on media consumption and trust. Respondents were asked to rank their trust in various media brands on a scale of one to ten. Typically for such surveys, this found the highest level of trust in public broadcasters, with ABC News ranking first and SBS News ranking second; television networks and broadsheet newspapers in the middle; and tabloid newspapers, specifically the Herald Sun and the Daily Telegraph, ranking last. The survey was conducted online in January and February from a sample of 2038.
• In an address to the National Press Club last week, Labor national secretary Paul Erickson dated a shift in voter sentiment in Labor’s favour from the announcement of the Solomon Islands’ pact with China on April 1. Erickson said voters were struck by the contrast between the Coalition’s “immature” warmongering rhetoric and attempts to associate Labor with the Chinese Communist Party and Labor’s promise to “restore Australia’s place as the partner of choice” for Pacific Islands countries. He further noted that the rot set in for Scott Morrison amid COVID outbreaks in mid-2021, when Labor internal polling showed his net competence score fall by 14 points in two weeks over late June and early July. The Coalition was also damaged by cabinet ministers’ partisan attacks on state governments in Western Australia and Victoria, and it was rated lower by voters on housing and wages.
• Saturday’s Financial Review reported on the Australian Electoral Commission’s efforts to confront online disinformation about the election process head on, through the work of its election integrity assurance taskforce and a media unit that abandoned bureaucratic formality in engaging with social media on social media’s terms. Electoral commissioner Tom Rogers claimed they had a “70 to 80 per cent success rate in changing minds”, and that Twitter had been “a bit self-correcting as a result”: “Someone would say something and you’d see people say, ‘hang on, that doesn’t sound right, I heard the AEC say this or that’”.
• Tom Rogers also foreshadows possible changes to electoral laws to allow for faster counting of postal votes after election day by streamlining the existing process whereby ballots are sorted at a central location and then sent to the voter’s electorate before they are counted.
• Nominations for the South Australian state by-election for Bragg on July 2 closed on Thursday, drawing a field of six candidates who are listed on my by-election guide.
Other recent posts on the site:
• A post on the Queensland Senate result, which was confirmed on Thursday. The buttons will be pressed today on the results for New South Wales at 9:30am and, most interestingly, Victoria at 10am. That will just leave Western Australia – the post just linked to considers at length the remote possibility that Labor might not win a third seat, as is being generally assumed.
• Courtesy of Adrian Beaumont, a preview and live commentary of France’s legislative elections, plus news on British by-elections and American opinion polling.
• A post on Saturday’s Callide state by-election in Queensland, a safe conservative seat which the Liberal National Party has retained with a swing in its favour of 6.5% against Labor.
Something doing on the polling front:
“Labor was propelled to victory over Scott Morrison by women, under-55s and those with higher levels of education, with people in the latter two groups most likely to have abandoned the Coalition since the 2019 election.
“Those are the findings of a survey of 3,500 voters by the Australian National University and researchers at the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems, released on Monday.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/20/under-55s-and-higher-educated-voters-propelled-labor-to-victory-study-finds?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
‘[The ANU/CSES survey] found “controlling for other characteristics” women were no more or less likely to vote for Labor, but had “a higher probability of having voted for the Greens”.
‘Although Labor did enjoy an advantage among women, the “difference is mostly due to a higher vote for the Greens”, which “flowed back to Labor through preferences”, it concluded.’
“… it would be interesting to compare Labor’s strength during its honeymoon period with that of newly elected governments past.”
Ask, and ye shall receive:
‘The [ANU/CSES] study also found “a very large increase in satisfaction with the direction of the country, from 62.4% of Australians being satisfied or very satisfied in April 2022 to 73.3% in May 2022”, Biddle said.
“In fact, this is one of the highest levels of satisfaction we have seen since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20.”’
Sussan Ley’s ‘Women’s Listening Tour’ is bound to fix that!
Seriously though, we can file this in the ‘if you want something done, get a woman to do it’ folder.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/19/climate/supreme-court-climate-epa.html
Republicans have definitely been playing the long game wrt the Supreme Court.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/aboriginal-flag-to-fly-permanently-atop-harbour-bridge-by-end-of-year-20220618-p5aur4.html
This is a great move, and long overdue. I’m also with Perrottet in feeling bemused at the prospect installing a new flagpole could take 2 years and cost $25M.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
David Crowe writes that our weeks in and, going slow and careful, there are no major hitches for Albanese.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/slow-and-careful-four-weeks-in-and-no-major-hitches-for-albanese-20220619-p5auua.html
Nicholas Stuart has quite a bit to say in this forthright contribution. For instance, “A few otherwise intelligent people seem to be having difficulty understanding what’s happening, so let’s repeat the news: Labor won the election”, and “This government has already shown its determination to shift the goalposts as necessary. Anyone who thought things would stay the same needs to get a grip. That world has already disappeared.”
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7785894/dont-bother-fighting-the-last-war-its-over/?cs=14264
Middle-aged and highly-educated voters deserting the Coalition en masse were the major demographic drivers of the Morrison government’s defeat, according to the first major independent analysis of the May 21 election result. Andrew Tillett reports.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/middle-aged-and-educated-the-voters-who-cost-scott-morrison-power-20220619-p5autz
Alan Finkel reckons this energy revolution is hard – really hard – but it’s doable. Interesting.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-energy-revolution-is-hard-really-hard-but-it-s-doable-20220619-p5aut4.html
States will gain the right to decide whether coal and gas will be part of a national scheme to reward power generators who can meet the urgent need for new electricity supplies, with the peak energy regulator saying Australia must build 50 times the capacity of the original Snowy Hydro scheme by 2050.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/coal-gas-to-smooth-transition-to-clean-power-top-energy-officials-20220618-p5aus0.html
All existing electricity generators – including coal and gas – should be paid to be on standby to avoid blackouts and bolster the stability of the east coast power grid, the Energy Security Board says in its response to the energy crisis.
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/tension-over-energy-crisis-plan-as-esb-backs-coal-and-gas-20220619-p5ausx
Peter Hannam goes into detail on the ESG report.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/20/stakes-never-higher-energy-board-releases-capacity-market-blueprint
Coal is a dud. Gas is a pretend solution spruiked by vested interests. Renewable energy resources are the cheapest form of new power generation, so where are they? David Ritter reports.
https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/coalition-backed-broken-down-coal-burners-fuel-energy-crisis,16474
The Coalition came to power in 2013 with the promise to wreck things and they didn’t disappoint, writes Kaye lee in this article in which she contrasts builders and wreckers.
https://theaimn.com/builders-or-wreckers-the-contrast-is-stark/
A critical challenge facing the new Labor Government is its response to the upsurge in inflation and the threat to living standards. In Part 1 today this article from Michael Keating discusses the dimensions of this challenge. Parts 2 and 3, tomorrow and the next day, will consider possible government responses.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-outlook-for-living-standards-part-1/
Ronald Mizen tells us that Josh Frydenberg’s years-long campaign to rein in class action lawsuits paid for by litigation funders is being dismantled.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-to-scrap-class-action-funding-regulations-20220618-p5aur6
Head of Victoria’s anti-corruption commission says integrity agencies such as his must be given strong powers to investigate pork barrelling and other wrongdoing as the risk of graft increases.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/risk-of-graft-increasing-anti-corruption-commissioner-calls-out-pork-barrelling-20220617-p5auh2.html
Lewis Baird reports that the new Communications Minister Michelle Rowland is keen to get much more aggressive with the big tech firms and is open to drafting laws that designate Google, Facebook and others under the media bargaining code, should their behaviour warrant it.
https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/rowland-ready-to-intervene-in-media-fight-with-big-tech-20220617-p5aul8
It’s becoming increasingly clear to backers that global share markets will feel the chill winds from the “cryptocurrency winter”, explains Karen Maley.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/why-all-investors-will-feel-the-pain-from-the-crypto-carnage-20220619-p5aut8
The challenge for a Labor federal government is to support expansive labour migration in a way that does not produce a race to the bottom in labour standards, warns Joanna Howe.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/labor-has-a-difficult-tightrope-to-walk-in-tackling-migration-20220614-p5atmw.html
New South Wales police have defended their raid on a group of climate protesters in north-west Sydney yesterday, alleging that the group was planning “extreme forms” of protest and acted aggressively towards officers.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/19/nsw-police-feared-for-their-lives-during-raid-on-climate-protesters-says-assistant-commissioner
These researchers have found that transporting food across and between countries generates almost one fifth of greenhouse gas emissions from the food sector – and affluent countries make a disproportionately large contribution to the problem.
https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-affluent-must-start-eating-local-food-to-tackle-the-climate-crisis-new-research-shows-185251
The Tories’ Brexit obsession has no future in a changing Britain. They just won’t admit it, writes John Harris.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/19/tories-brexit-britain-voter-demographics-leave-eu
The SMH editorial says that the January 6 inquiry shines a light on the perilous state of US democracy. And it adds that the US should take a look at the Australian Electoral Commission as an example of how to safeguard this most basic machinery of democracy.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/january-6-inquiry-shines-a-light-on-the-perilous-state-of-us-democracy-20220619-p5auvz.html
Jokes and theatre aside, the prosecution of Donald Trump has already begun, writes Bill Wyman.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/jokes-and-theatre-aside-the-prosecution-of-donald-trump-has-already-begun-20220619-p5auvm.html
“Arsehole of the Week” nomination goes to this delightful piece of work who has again fallen foul of ASIC.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/rebrand-for-companies-linked-to-asic-banned-dominique-grubisa-20220615-p5atw0
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Peter Broelman
Jim Pavlidis
Mark Knight
Spooner
From the US
Not sure how many people follow the journalist Carole Cadwalladr and her opposition to Facebook. I was impressed by her TED talk.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/commentisfree/2022/jun/19/arron-banks-set-out-to-crush-me-in-court-instead-my-quest-for-the-facts-was-vindicated
Thanks BK.
“ In the same way, Albanese wasted no time in signing a formal pledge to the United Nations to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, but the signature is the easy part. The Prime Minister wants to legislate this target as soon as July, setting up a test for Greens leader Adam Bandt and Liberal leader Peter Dutton.”
I think attempting to legislate the target will tell us much about how Albo’s term will proceed, will it be contested or supported? Let’s hope for collaborative (it’s Albo’s nature and strength) and supported, for Australia’s benefit.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/slow-and-careful-four-weeks-in-and-no-major-hitches-for-albanese-20220619-p5auua.html
Quasar @ #8 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 6:52 am
And I have read this long investigative article about Peter Thiel, the guy who, along with Elon Musk, started Pay Pal and sat on the board of facebook until just recently and who is bankrolling the ultra conservative libertarian candidates in the American Mid Term elections. Another project of his is to crush the Democratic Party:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/06/19/peter-thiel-facebook-new-right/
I have unlocked the article for anyone who doesn’t have a subscription or Bypass Paywalls:
https://wapo.st/3b17Lnu
All existing electricity generators – including coal and gas – should be paid to be on standby to avoid blackouts and bolster the stability of the east coast power grid, the Energy Security Board says in its response to the energy crisis.
https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/tension-over-energy-crisis-plan-as-esb-backs-coal-and-gas-20220619-p5ausx
As coal plant takes hours to start and as we are aiming for a 100% renewable grid it is hard to see it being useful when it comes to grid stability. It is legacy generation that has to be managed out of the system. Coals problem is the cost to run and they must run when wind and solar are producing.
Gas on the other hand can start on demand and can support the grid when there is a shortage of wind, solar and energy storage.
Question I was seeing ads suggesting gas can be made renewable last night.
This does not make sense to me. I thought we were being encouraged to move away from gas appliances.
Is it possible
Alan Finkel reckons this energy revolution is hard – really hard – but it’s doable. Interesting.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/this-energy-revolution-is-hard-really-hard-but-it-s-doable-20220619-p5aut4.html
If anyone can make it happen, it’s Chris Bowen. He is seriously determined and smart. He also is the author of one of the most enduring changes from the last federal government: pricing per unit of measurement on grocery shelf tags. Even the Coalition approved of it by the fact they didn’t unpick it.
Installing a third flagpole at a 25m dollar cost is sheer idiocy. Just take down the bloody NSW state flag. Nobody needs to see its ugly ass. Spend the $25m on impoverished remote communities.
Chris Bowen smart? LOL. The guy is the primary architect of Labor’s loss in the unloseable election of 2019. “Don’t like higher taxes? Vote Liberal”. And now doing his best to sell the message that private energy companies are in charge of government policy, another political master stroke. He’s anything but seriously smart.
Swimming intends to become the first sport to set up an “open category” to allow transgender athletes to compete in a separate class at the elite level, Husain Al-Musallam, president of governing body FINA, announced on Monday morning.
The policy will, however, exclude many transgender athletes from women’s elite swimming.
Under the rules, he said, male competition would be open to all. But “male-to-female transgender athletes and intersex athletes can only compete as female athletes in FINA competition, or set a world record, if they can prove they have not experienced any element of male puberty.”
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. A lot more interesting pieces than yesterday.
This ABC article looks at the sources of David Pocock’s support in the ACT Senate. I’m not sure I agree with using assumptions about preference flows in this way though. The analysis seems to understate Zed’s unpopularity.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-20/how-did-independent-david-pocock-get-elected-act-senate-canberra/101164970
#weatheronPB
Mottled clouds sit above me.
The air and the ground are damp.
Dull rumbles start the day.
On this story:
“ Head of Victoria’s anti-corruption commission says integrity agencies such as his must be given strong powers to investigate pork barrelling and other wrongdoing as the risk of graft increases.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/risk-of-graft-increasing-anti-corruption-commissioner-calls-out-pork-barrelling-20220617-p5auh2.html
Why is there such shock that pork barreling could be investigated as corruption? There are laws regarding funding processes. Several inquiries have already concluded that a number of Liberal grant scheme rorts were illegal under the Morrison government. If the behavior is both illegal and against the national interest, why can it not be investigated? This one should not be up for debate.
I have done a lot of work on infrastructure funding over my career and am familiar with the State and federal rules for them. There is always some bias in how funds are allocated, but there were still processes to ensure corruption and waste were avoided. Morrison was an appalling ignorer of process. Many of his largest financial decisions ignored normal processes. I look forward to investigation of this area of alleged corruption by any Federal ICAC. Start with the water deals, then move to subs, gas and toll roads, plus Barnaby’s inland rail to nowhere.
Watermelon @ #15 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 8:01 am
Not that I generally put much store in your contributions but I feel I need to call out this particular piece of apocryphal bullshit out. Chris Bowen never said the words you ascribe to him and it is only the Lunar Right and Lunar Left who still try and push that line for their own purely partisan political purposes. If you’re lacking in comprehension to the extent you can’t decipher correctly what he did say, then I can’t help you.
laughtong says:
“Question I was seeing ads suggesting gas can be made renewable last night …”
Depends on which gas.
Hydrocarbons (such as natural gas) produce carbon dioxide when combusted. Not good.
Hydrogen produces water. Not so bad.
Hydrogen is manufactured by running electricity through water. If that electricity comes from a coal-fired power, that doesn’t really help. But if it’s sun- or wind-generated, creating so called ‘green hydrogen’, that potentially does help.
“ Alan Finkel reckons this energy revolution is hard – really hard – but it’s doable. Interesting.”
Nothing against Bowen, but I don’t agree. Technically and economically the change to Renewable Energy (RE) is feasible now. Multiple agencies have already modelled how to have a stable RE grid.
ACT and Tassie have done it, SA is doing it, WA, NSW and Vic are starting. Households and business will get cheaper power.
The only hard bit (in Qld) will be political – building the new RE power (and jobs) before being seen to switch off the coal, so that workers can migrate to new jobs that exist. In some regions industry exit/assistance packages will be needed. But assist workers, not coal and gas companies. Labor owes the latter nothing after their 2010 opposition to the mining tax and funding the Libs in 2019.
[‘This house needs a family again’: Wendy Whiteley’s extraordinary $100 million gift to NSW
The Lavender Bay home of Wendy Whiteley will be sold after her death and her collection of Brett Whiteley artworks donated to the Art Gallery of NSW in an “extraordinary” cultural gift to the state of NSW.
The promised bequest is worth more than $100 million, among the largest single donations to the gallery in its 151-year history, director Michael Brand has announced.
Wendy Whiteley: “It doesn’t make sense to turn the house into another museum.”
“This gift is yet another example of what an outstanding citizen of our harbour city Wendy Whiteley is, and why she continues to be so admired and revered,” Brand said.
Almost 2000 artworks, drawn from across the breadth of Brett Whiteley’s celebrated career, will be left jointly to the art gallery and the Brett Whiteley Foundation.
The heritage-listed home where Wendy Whiteley has lived since 1969 will not, however, be preserved in public ownership. Rather, Wendy, aged 81, has instructed it be sold upon her death with the proceeds placed in trust to secure the future of the collection and the Brett Whiteley Studio in Surry Hills, dedicated to showcasing the artist’s practice and oeuvre.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/culture/art-and-design/this-house-needs-a-family-again-wendy-whiteley-s-extraordinary-100-million-gift-to-nsw-20220615-p5atzy.html
A great gesture by Wendy Whiteley.
laughtong @ #12 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 7:31 am
Biogas (essentially, methane from biological sources such as plant waste) can be considered renewable.
I doubt it is practical at a national or international scale, but commercial production plants do exist.
This is a disturbing story, linking Russian oligarchs, Russian government, and a British multi-millionaire (Aaron Banks) to Brexit propaganda and years of punishing legal actions against an individual journalist who made the relationship public. She successfully defended herself and writes that the full story is still not known.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/commentisfree/2022/jun/19/arron-banks-set-out-to-crush-me-in-court-instead-my-quest-for-the-facts-was-vindicated
C@tmomma @ #20 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 8:18 am
What he actually said in 2019 was “if you don’t like our policies, don’t vote for us.” Australians took him at his word, and didn’t.
Alan Finkel describes it all very well:
From an engineering perspective, hydroelectricity and nuclear are dream players, producing electricity on demand and contributing to the secure and reliable operation of the grid. Solar and wind generation are less co-operative, but realistically that’s all that mainland Australia has at hand. To deploy them, they must be supported by transmission lines, storage and arguably a modest amount of natural gas generation.
Australia has made good progress. There has been record investment in the past three years that has seen our solar and wind generation in the east coast grid almost double from 12 per cent in 2018 to 23.5 per cent in 2021. On a per capita basis, our solar and wind generation is comparable with California. Looking just at solar electricity, on a per capita basis Australia is No. 1 in the world.
Where we are behind schedule is on the construction of transmission lines, especially the local lines required to connect solar and wind energy zones to metropolitan and industrial loads. These transmission lines, combined with batteries, will substantially improve the reliability of our electricity system.
The requirements for transmission lines are well described in the Australian Energy Market Operator’s integrated system plan, a recommendation of the 2017 review of the national electricity market that I chaired. The new federal government’s $20 billion fund for transmission lines and grid strengthening will accelerate implementation.
As we design the electricity system of the future it is essential to plan for the extremes, not the averages. In the past few weeks alone, we have suffered from a combination of floods, international price pressures, generator breakdowns, lower than usual wind and the normal low winter sunshine. A rare combination of events indeed, but rare events come in many shapes and sizes and, overall, one or the other happens frequently. More foreseeable is that every few years we will see low sunshine and low wind weather patterns lasting for many days or a week or two.
The solution is to invest in long-duration storage. Today, the only way to achieve long-duration storage is with pumped hydro, but such projects have been few and far between because of local objections to the facilities themselves and to installing the transmission lines to connect them. In future, hydrogen made from excess solar and wind electricity during good weather will be stored in large volumes and used to fuel converted natural gas generators to provide long-duration storage.
Late Riser @ #25 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 8:38 am
Yet another ray of light to set the “Business” Cockroach Kakocracy scurrying. The arseholes are in full rout, here and elsewhere.
Thank you for both the answers to my question.
So it is theoretically possible if not really practical yet
https://www.smh.com.au/national/if-albanese-asks-for-assange-s-freedom-biden-has-every-reason-to-agree-bob-carr-20220619-p5autd.html
Late Riser
It has been obvious for several years.
The assault by the oligarchs and those in power and with money, in other countries such as the UK and USA.
The whole trump and brexit saga culminating in the invasion of Ukraine, are all part of the same shit show.
Who is surprised that there are those who wanted to emulate the system under which Russian oligarchs operated.
The damage that has been done has been huge, but the wheels are finally turning.
We are living in very interesting times.
Hopefully Putin is not long for this world.
That in itself will help
I think Bowen’s statement re not liking Labor’s policies has a lot in common with Hillary Clinton’s “Deplorables” line. In hindsight they shouldn’t have been uttered & arguably both should’ve had the political smarts not to’ve said it. But both are nonetheless statements of the bleeding obvious latched onto by opponents & exaggerated far, far beyond their real relevance.
BSA Bob @ #33 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 9:06 am
Yes, basically he stated the bleeding obvious that, in a democracy, if you don’t like one side’s policies, you can vote for the other guy. But self-interested parties immediately jumped on it and bent it waaay out of shape.
“• Saturday’s Financial Review reported on the Australian Electoral Commission’s efforts to confront online disinformation about the election process head on, through the work of its election integrity assurance taskforce and a media unit that abandoned bureaucratic formality in engaging with social media on social media’s terms. Electoral commissioner Tom Rogers claimed they had a “70 to 80 per cent success rate in changing minds”, and that Twitter had been “a bit self-correcting as a result”: “Someone would say something and you’d see people say, ‘hang on, that doesn’t sound right, I heard the AEC say this or that’”.”
Good post WB and to me, absolutely, fundamental good news, particularly at the moment with the crap happening in the US and their democratic institutions going down past the s-bend. Think we have two advantages in Aust that will make it a lot harder for our politics to go that way, that far and fast. AEC as a respected, independent institution, AND, Preferential, Compulsory Voting .
“Oliver Sutton says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 4:49 am
Something doing on the polling front:
“Labor was propelled to victory over Scott Morrison by women, under-55s and those with higher levels of education, with people in the latter two groups most likely to have abandoned the Coalition since the 2019 election.”
Well, William should be happy with that as the BludgerTrack was pointing to exactly the same trend. Just focusing on the results from the latest poll available before the election:
GENDER (data from Ipsos)
Female: 50% ALP, 36% Coalition (difference = 14%)
Males: 49% ALP, 43% Coalition (difference = 6%)
AGE (data from Newspoll)
35-49: 60% ALP (Newspoll)
18-34: 66% ALP (Newspoll)
EDUCATION (data from Newspoll)
No tertiary: 56% ALP
TAFE/Tech: 54% ALP
University: 55% ALP
INCOME (data from Newspoll)
Up to $50k: 55% ALP
$50K-$99K: 57% ALP
$100K-$150K: 53% ALP
$150K+: 55% ALP
LANGUAGE (data from Newspoll):
English only: 54% ALP
LOTE (Language Other Than English): 60% ALP
RELIGION (data from Newspoll):
Christian: 54% Coalition
No Religion: 62% ALP
Conclusion, it looks like that the Coalition only has enough friends among the Christians…. I wonder how religious Dutton is…..
Some seemingly obscure polling outfits popped up prior to the election, doing seat level polls.
I suppose they are now back to their routine business of asking people whether they prefer Weetbix or Vitabrits.
The main thing is that we seemingly know little about their methodology, particularly sampling methods and preference distribution.
The full ANU paper analysing the 2022 election result can be found here:
https://csrm.cass.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/docs/2022/6/Explaining_the_2022_election_result.pdf
What is most stark to me in the survey results is how much the Coalition dominates in the 65+ group and in low education voters. It doesn’t bode well for their future election prospects if they cannot change and start appealing to a new generation of voters.
One extract from the survey illustrating this:
“Despite that seeming stability, longitudinal and detailed cross-sectional analysis presented in
this paper showed some real differences across population sub-groups in voting patterns, and
voting change. Age and education were once again one of the key factors explaining voting
choice. These two factors were much stronger predictors than sex, country of birth, location,
and even household income. For example, 47.1 per cent of those Australians who had not
completed Year 12 voting for the Coalition compared to 29.3 per cent of those who had
completed Year 12. There are similar differences by age, with 49.0 per cent of those aged 65
years and over voting for the Coalition compared to 26.7 per cent of those aged under 65, and
only 18.1 per cent of those aged under 35. Indeed, there were almost twice as many
Australians aged under 35 who voted for the Greens (36.0 per cent) compared to those who
voted for the Coalition.
The analysis also suggests that these two characteristics – age and education – were the most
important demographic characteristics factors explaining the loss in support for the Coalition.
Older Australians were less likely to change their vote, with 34.9 per cent of former Coalition
voters (that is, in 2019) aged under 55 years changing their vote compared to 21.1 per cent of
those aged 55 years and over. Furthermore 31.0 per cent of Coalition voters as of 2019 who
had completed Year 12 voted for a different party grouping in 2022 compared to 14.8 per cent
of those who had not completed Year 12.”
Socratessays:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 8:17 am
Actually,
I would go the other way. There are simple, easy wins with Sports Rorts, Carparks and Community Safety Funds to begin with to get runs on the board…
“BSA Bob says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 9:06 am
I think Bowen’s statement re not liking Labor’s policies has a lot in common with Hillary Clinton’s “Deplorables” line. ”
I note a clear focus of the usual vested interests on attacking Bowen. They obviously haven’t learned the lesson of the 2022 federal election, that focusing on personal attacks grounded on mere propaganda doesn’t seem to work anymore… And why do gratuitous personal attacks don’t seem to work anymore? Perhaps because the voters are going through such difficult times that are more focused on actual facts rather than propaganda?… The ALP clearly understood that, others have some catching up to do.
Finkel suggests we will have to pay Coal and Gas generators to stay operational – as well as pay for the energy they produce. This is what I have been hearing – including the building of new Gas generation, one modeller in treasury suggested a new coal PS may be necessary. Perhaps there is an alternative? Finkel has also recently commented that he believes ‘Australia needs to talk about nuclear’.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/we-need-to-talk-about-nuclear-finkel-20211027-p593p6
Looks like the Fossil Fuel Cartel have already beaten the new government into submission …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-20/capacity-mechanism/101166480
Didn’t take long. Makes you wonder if this was the plan all along, doesn’t it?
Oh, I should do less skimming without coffee. I seem to have conflated Finkels SMH opinion article and the Guardians article on the energy secrity board report wrt the future of gas and coal in our grid. They seem to be generally on the same page tho.
Headline from Murdoch’s DT:
@ Cronus703am
Spot on assessment. Albanese will push to legislate the 43% target. Obviously the dinosaurs opposite will oppose that push but judging by the defeat dealt out to them most Australians will basically ignore them and assess the legislation on its merits. Albo will be consultative on it.
The focus will be on how Bandt plays politics. He would do well to consider that if Labor sets the target legislatively, and given that much can be done tweaking the mechanism outside of legislation, any threat made or implied will be interpreted as purely political bastardtry. Sure, The Greens can make the claim that their successes support a stronger target, but they could be dancing on thin ice by pushing the envelope. People are well and truly over political argy- bargy and antagonism.
This government will need a second term to build on, and would quite likely set a new target for 2025 then. Obviously, concerned voters will assess Labors efforts over this term and vote accordingly.
It seems intuitive that progressive Parties and Independents strengthen themselves by not only being seen to be consultative in discussion but also in legislation. How this new Parliament manages this is of absolute importance.
Builders, blockers, wreckers and snarkers.
Bowen is a builder.
Player One @ #42 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 9:34 am
This is a proposal from the Energy Security Board appointed by the previous government. The current government has not even indicated a preliminary response yet
How about we wait and see what plays out before jumping to judgement
Alpo says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 9:29 am
I note a clear focus of the usual vested interests on attacking Bowen. They obviously haven’t learned the lesson of the 2022 federal election, that focusing on personal attacks grounded on mere propaganda doesn’t seem to work anymore… And why do gratuitous personal attacks don’t seem to work anymore? Perhaps because the voters are going through such difficult times that are more focused on actual facts rather than propaganda?… The ALP clearly understood that, others have some catching up to do.
__________________________________
Clearly both the Greens and the Liberals polling have identified Bowen as a ‘weak’ link in the Labor government and think that personal attacks on him will undermine Labor. From what I’ve seen of him since the election, as Minister, it seems to me they are on the wrong track!
”
Confessionssays:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 5:58 am
Within days, the conservative majority on the Supreme Court is expected to hand down a decision that could severely limit the federal government’s authority to reduce carbon dioxide from power plants — pollution that is dangerously heating the planet.
But it’s only a start.
The case, West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency, is the product of a coordinated, multiyear strategy by Republican attorneys general, conservative legal activists and their funders, several with ties to the oil and coal industries, to use the judicial system to rewrite environmental law, weakening the executive branch’s ability to tackle global warming.
Coming up through the federal courts are more climate cases, some featuring novel legal arguments, each carefully selected for its potential to block the government’s ability to regulate industries and businesses that produce greenhouse gases.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/19/climate/supreme-court-climate-epa.html
Republicans have definitely been playing the long game wrt the Supreme Court.
”
Looks like that country is totally screwed in medium to long term.
It appears the thinking of Tories in AUKUS countries is that
1.;if they can’t have it nobody can have it.
2. They want to party hard till they die and screw the world.
3. The rapture is about to happen soon. So why bother. Some even believe it is 20 years late.
ajm @ #47 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 9:14 am
How independent are they do you think? Google says – The Energy Security Board was established by the nation’s energy ministers to coordinate implementation of recommendations from the Independent Review into the Future Security of the National Electricity Market (Finkel Review).
So, established by COAG. I guess there would be guidelines set for them by the previous government and we know how Finkels Review tried to be diplomatic towards the quandary Turnbull found/put/allowed himself in.
Here is a starting point for the makeup of the board…..
https://esb-post2025-market-design.aemc.gov.au/who-is-the-energy-security-board