Flying blind (open thread)

A Labor-eye-view of the election result from the party’s national secretary; the AEC’s response to social media misinformation; but nothing doing on the polling front, apart from some numbers on media trust.

Despite the polls not having failed as such, in that they uniformly picked the right winner, it seems we’re having another post-election voting intention polling drought just like we did in 2019. This is unfortunate from my perspective, as it would be interesting to compare Labor’s strength during its honeymoon period with that of newly elected governments past. It also means I have to work harder on material for regular open thread posts. Here’s what I’ve got this time:

• The Reuters Institute last week published its international Digital News Report 2022, the Australian segment of which was conducted by the University of Canberra, which asked questions on media consumption and trust. Respondents were asked to rank their trust in various media brands on a scale of one to ten. Typically for such surveys, this found the highest level of trust in public broadcasters, with ABC News ranking first and SBS News ranking second; television networks and broadsheet newspapers in the middle; and tabloid newspapers, specifically the Herald Sun and the Daily Telegraph, ranking last. The survey was conducted online in January and February from a sample of 2038.

• In an address to the National Press Club last week, Labor national secretary Paul Erickson dated a shift in voter sentiment in Labor’s favour from the announcement of the Solomon Islands’ pact with China on April 1. Erickson said voters were struck by the contrast between the Coalition’s “immature” warmongering rhetoric and attempts to associate Labor with the Chinese Communist Party and Labor’s promise to “restore Australia’s place as the partner of choice” for Pacific Islands countries. He further noted that the rot set in for Scott Morrison amid COVID outbreaks in mid-2021, when Labor internal polling showed his net competence score fall by 14 points in two weeks over late June and early July. The Coalition was also damaged by cabinet ministers’ partisan attacks on state governments in Western Australia and Victoria, and it was rated lower by voters on housing and wages.

• Saturday’s Financial Review reported on the Australian Electoral Commission’s efforts to confront online disinformation about the election process head on, through the work of its election integrity assurance taskforce and a media unit that abandoned bureaucratic formality in engaging with social media on social media’s terms. Electoral commissioner Tom Rogers claimed they had a “70 to 80 per cent success rate in changing minds”, and that Twitter had been “a bit self-correcting as a result”: “Someone would say something and you’d see people say, ‘hang on, that doesn’t sound right, I heard the AEC say this or that’”.

• Tom Rogers also foreshadows possible changes to electoral laws to allow for faster counting of postal votes after election day by streamlining the existing process whereby ballots are sorted at a central location and then sent to the voter’s electorate before they are counted.

• Nominations for the South Australian state by-election for Bragg on July 2 closed on Thursday, drawing a field of six candidates who are listed on my by-election guide.

Other recent posts on the site:

• A post on the Queensland Senate result, which was confirmed on Thursday. The buttons will be pressed today on the results for New South Wales at 9:30am and, most interestingly, Victoria at 10am. That will just leave Western Australia – the post just linked to considers at length the remote possibility that Labor might not win a third seat, as is being generally assumed.

• Courtesy of Adrian Beaumont, a preview and live commentary of France’s legislative elections, plus news on British by-elections and American opinion polling.

• A post on Saturday’s Callide state by-election in Queensland, a safe conservative seat which the Liberal National Party has retained with a swing in its favour of 6.5% against Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

856 comments on “Flying blind (open thread)”

Comments Page 16 of 18
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  1. Rex Douglas @ #735 Tuesday, June 21st, 2022 – 4:08 pm

    Sandman @ #734 Tuesday, June 21st, 2022 – 6:03 pm

    So whats the deal in the senate. Labor needs the Greens and one other vote to get things through the senate ? 2 ON 2 JLN 1 UAP and and Independent ? Must be that guy in ACT ?

    There is a push from some bludgers for Labor to deal with the Nats/Libs and freeze out the Greens.

    No, the point was that you take the support from where ever it comes from, if that happens to be some National Senators, then so be it.

    But that’s probably a bit subtle for you.

  2. C@t:

    Thanks. It’s actually against protocol to fly other national flags without the Australian flag. Surely Bandt knows that?

  4. Cronus at 5:27 pm

    ” Does Australia need ‘interim’ submarines to tide it over until nuclear boats arrive? ”

    Thanks for the link Cronus. There is lots of lobbying about defence expenditure now and little clarity.
    This link is also relevant to the same problem: building 3 more AWD ships as an interim measure because the Hunter Class Frigates are also running years late, and still stuck in design.
    https://www.aspi.org.au/report/delivering-stronger-navy-faster

    I will offer my 2 cents worth on a revised overall naval shipbuilding plan. The promises (i.e. lies) of the previous government are undeliverable under the current budget, and the budget situation is getting worse not better. We need both a new naval shipbuilding plan and a away to pay for it. Something has to give.

    The Socrates Plan (Project Trireme 🙂 )
    1. Cancel the Hunter Class Frigate program $45 billion saved
    2. Adopt the Navantia proposal to build 3 “interim” AWDs. $6 billion spent
    3. Extend the AWD build by 6 more ships to replace the Anzacs $12 billion spent (same total employment at ASC)
    4. This saves $27 billion on frigates. Combined with the Attack sub budget (+$90 billion) it gives $117 billion for SSNs. That should be enough to pay for the 10 to 12 UK or French SSNs.
    5. Advise the USA that we can’t afford the Virginia Class SSNs, wonderful as they are. Don’t waste their time. Instead, hire Electric Boat to oversea the ASC yard upgrade for SSNs. $1 billion spent
    6. Halt the “Collins LOTE” project and maintain only. Retire them 2030 to 2035. $3 billion saved
    7. Run a tender between UK and France to build 12 SSNs.
    – 3 built in UK or France immediately (now to 2030) to avoid a capability gap. If they can’t supply, rule them out.
    – 7 to 9 Australian built SSNs in ASC as soon as the capability exists
    – the offer must be based on a current design, with minimal modification.

    This plan assumes 3 SSNs can replace the capability of 6 Collins. That is a slight stretch but possible. The SSNs can be “double crewed” and spend a lot of each year at sea. As more SSNs get added, our capability increases.

    We plainly can’t afford both the Hunter Frigates and the SSNs. The above plan gives the same amount of work to Adelaide and Perth (in fact the AWD shipbuild starts immediately instead of waiting six years for Hunters) saves $28 billion+, and gives similar capability. The Hunters are quite good ASW ships. One class of 12 AWDs, instead of two separate classes, is cheaper, easier to crew and easier to maintain.

    If nobody can supply SSNs built quickly, then hire TKM to build 6 new Type 218SG SSKs as interim subs. Under no circumstances pay anyone to produce a new design for an “interim” sub. Waste of time.

    Lest this all sound crazy, Hugh White and ASPI have both suggested similar things.

  6. Interesting result in Andalusia on Sunday, with a historic outright majority for the Conservatives in a traditional bastion of the left.

    20% ahead of the socialists, more-or-less. And no need to work with the far right Vox to get laws passed.

    This is not the first poor regional result for the PSOE in the last year or two, although it is a particularly grievous one.

    Looks like Sanchez is now merely keeping Spain’s PM seat warm until next year’s national election. Getting into bed with communists and hoping people will somehow still think you are moderate hasn’t worked very well.

  7. BK says:
    Tuesday, June 21, 2022 at 5:58 pm
    Kudos to you all for maintaining good morale, it makes almost as much difference to the relatives as it does to the residents.
    ______
    Cronus
    “This is very important. Whenever the government quality assessment teams conduct audits they always contact residents’ families to find out what’s really going on.”

    Morale is critical in the military and from my observations, no less so in aged care and health and education (and I suspect many other specialisations). It has been impressive in many ways to observe the performance of many elements of our society during the pandemic and I’ve learned to appreciate so many fields of service during this time as I’ve reflected on the changes and pressures. We’ve appreciated the regular feedback requests and even made a couple of recommendations but always been been impressed.

  8. Another comment on how to pay for defence spending (sorry Socrates is a bit “triggered” at this point).

    We need to look for areas that can be cut if other areas are to increase. I am going to suggest an area to cut (my own!): transport infrastructure!

    There have been many questionable (wasteful and/or unnecessary) transport projects funded in the past decade. Up to the 2008/09 GFC transport infrastructure spending was around 0.7% of GDP.

    During the GDP it was raised to 1.2% of GDP, and that greatly helped avoid mass unemployment. By comparison other countries with big distances and high growth (e..g Canada) spend about 0.9% of GDP. We should do the same. Our spend should have declined by a 1/4 after the GFC, but it never did.

    The result has been a lot of “over-scoped” projects. Ironically there is also a shortage of skilled workers in road building right now. More money won’t help. Fewer megaprojects and more local fixes (including public transport, walking and cycling) and will result in a better transport outcome too.

    Now Defence spending is around 2% of GDP, needs to increase, but where from? If transport infrastructure is cut by 0.3% of GDP, we could increase defence spending by the same amount (to 2.3% of GDP), and no social programs would need to be cut. Fixing rorts in the oil and gas tax would then create tax revenue that could flow into NDIS, health and education, where it is badly needed.

  9. Confessionssays:
    Tuesday, June 21, 2022 at 6:33 pm
    Sandman:
    All she needed to do was acknowledge the people who worked on the interview. Simples.
    _____________________
    Wilkinson doesn’t work like that. It is all about her and and all about the money.

  12. Socrates

    Quite frankly, the “Socrates Plan” is no less credible than any other I’ve seen that have been considered/approved/stuffed by the Department of Defence over the past 20 years. As an ex-ADF member I’ve almost entirely lost faith in the government’s/department’s ability to plan, develop, acquire, manage and construct our defence materiel.

    The overhaul required is, I fear, far more than we can afford in terms of time and cost and a great many questions must be asked of our civilian and military bureaucrats. Their performance in terms of effective deliverables is appalling (imho) and our national security has been unnecessarily placed at risk through apparently gross incompetence at numerous levels.

    Rant finished …… for this evening.

  13. I don’t think the RBA Governor & the Board are overly competent. The official cash rate should’ve been increased earlier so that I could’ve personally gained via term deposits, and now he’s saying a recession is not on the cards despite the growing evidence to the contrary. What do you think, “Here we go again”?

    ____________________________________

    I’m a frequent user of the myGov site, now finding it’s very user-friendly, a big improvement on the past.

    ___________________________________

    shellbell:

    Tuesday, June 21, 2022 at 5:00 pm

    [‘The most precious things such as a speedy fair trial are now gone.’]

    Do stop over-egging it, dear. The trial will be listed later in the year. And perhaps you’d do better by addressing the plight of Collarey, whose been hung out to dry for over four years.

    ____________________________________

    The election of Babet to the Senate to the exclusion of Mirabella should be welcomed. He looks & sounds like a bit of a spiv, and spivs do deals, not bound by party loyalties – not that Labor will need his support; but you never know.

  17. Cronus @ #763 Tuesday, June 21st, 2022 – 7:06 pm

    Socrates

    Quite frankly, the “Socrates Plan” is no less credible than any other I’ve seen that have been considered/approved/stuffed by the Department of Defence over the past 20 years. As an ex-ADF member I’ve almost entirely lost faith in the government’s/department’s ability to plan, develop, acquire, manage and construct our defence materiel.

    The overhaul required is, I fear, far more than we can afford in terms of time and cost and a great many questions must be asked of our civilian and military bureaucrats. Their performance in terms of effective deliverables is appalling (imho) and our national security has been unnecessarily placed at risk through apparently gross incompetence at numerous levels.

    Rant finished …… for this evening.

    We seem about as prepared as we were for the bombing of Darwin and Japanese subs in Sydney Harbour.

    #Straya

  19. Rex

    Yes that is the problem re defence gaps right now. Hence my plan is based on existing designs we can build right now. Fantasy projects about designing state of the art ships and subs ready to start building in ten years time need to be binned.

    Cronus

    Yes I sympathise and share your concerns about the nature of the Defence. When incompetent decision making survives multiple ministers there is also a problem in the department itself.

    NB: this is not a rant at ADF service personnel or ASC shipyard workers. I don’t think either are the problem. Defence bureaucrats outnumber ASC staff 5 to 1. Too many chiefs and not enough technical “indians”.

    The idea behind Project Trireme is to say to defence: your long term budget is fixed. How are you going to build the stuff within your current budget?

  20. We can argue the semantics, but it’s still funny.

    Man who wants government out of his life accidentally makes government bigger part of his life
    …
    “I’ve spent the past two-and-a-half years fanatically calling for governments to stop meddling in people’s lives, and now I discover I AM the fucking government. How the hell did that happen?” United Australia’s Ralph Babet said.
    …
    He said he believes the election was rigged.

    https://www.theshovel.com.au/2022/06/21/man-accidentally-makes-government-bigger-part-of-his-life/

  21. Socrates

    A couple things intrigue me. One is Labor’s official statement here: https://www.alp.org.au/policies/fast-rail-between-sydney-and-the-hunter Now, its constructed to give the strong impression that Newcastle to Sydney will in fact be the first section of a high speed rail network to be constructed. Yet the blurb also uses the language “the first component of an eventual line to Brisbane” which is entirely consistent with the findings of the 2013 Phase 2 HSR Study (which Albo was responsible for).

    Now, either Albo has genuinely made the decision to proceed with Newcastle to Sydney first (and if so this raises some interesting questions about who advised or influenced him). Or the press release is misleading. Which do you think?

    I’d love to think that Albo has changed his mind. Several people I’ve talked to believe this. However, when you think about it, this is tantamount to Albo saying the Study has serious flaws – because it came down strongly in favour of Sydney to Melbourne.

    Second thing is that there’s been some press about NSW’s “fast rail” plans for Newcastle to Sydney. But I’m deeply suspicious of this. The media have been allowed to walk away with tidbits like “30 minutes from Gosford to Sydney” and “45 minutes from Newcastle to Sydney”. This is not “fast rail”. These are timings that are hard to achieve with a no-holds-barred high speed rail line. So, what’s going on here? My feeling its just shit being fed to the Premier by certain parties in TfNSW who in reality just want to do some incremental fixes and stall the idea indefinitely.

    For bonus marks, what do you make of the suggestion that there is some kind of collaboration between Albo and NSW Gov? I mean its possible, but I’m not yet inclined to believe that Albo has walked away from the 2013 Study and its “parkway” station for Newcastle. And its entirely likely that the curmudgeons in TfNSW regard Albo’s venture as irrelevant to them.

    Your thoughts?

  22. Socrates @ #770 Tuesday, June 21st, 2022 – 7:23 pm

    Rex

    Yes that is the problem re defence gaps right now. Hence my plan is based on existing designs we can build right now. Fantasy projects about designing state of the art ships and subs ready to start building in ten years time need to be binned.

    Cronus

    Yes I sympathise and share your concerns about the nature of the Defence. When incompetent decision making survives multiple ministers there is also a problem in the department itself.

    NB: this is not a rant at ADF service personnel or ASC shipyard workers. I don’t think either are the problem. Defence bureaucrats outnumber ASC staff 5 to 1. Too many chiefs and not enough technical “indians”.

    Does Marles have the mettle to manage a few ego’s out and get straighten up Defence …?

    Genuinely hope so.

  24. Cud

    All good questions, sorry I don’t know any details. Like defence, transport infrastructure decision making is often cloaked in secrecy to protect that critical national security imperative: avoiding ministerial embarrassment. I haven’t worked on a Sydney project in 3 years.

    I am aware both the Feds and NSW have looked at Sydney Newcastle Fast rail (as opposed to Very Fast/TGV style). It makes a lot of sense, especially following the success of Sydney NW Metro. Also, the business cases of projects like the Beaches Link must be shaky with covid changes to travel patterns.

    Realistically, only NSW tranpsort has the technical resources to plan it in detail, so it would make sense for Albo to work with NSW, if he thinks he can trust Perrotet. In the long term the F3 is stuffed with no viable road upgrade options, so they have to do something.

    I must be off. That wine won’t drink itself.

  25. ”
    Confessionssays:
    Tuesday, June 21, 2022 at 6:21 pm
    This is just unbelievable!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/judge-blasts-wilkinson-s-logies-speech-about-higgins-20220621-p5avd3.html

    Surely these people know to be circumspect when discussing such matters, not the least when making an awards acceptance speech during an event that is likely to be widely reported?

    And who really suffers because of yet another trial delay? Not Lisa Wilkinson.
    ”

    No mention of Lisa Wilkinson in ‘The Project” on Channel 10, on which program she was one of the hosts.

  29. Socrates

    I think Albo has figured which way the wind is blowing with regard to Newcastle to Sydney. But I’d be very surprised if it has occurred to him that (for instance) you can actually run full high speed services directly to Newcastle and Gosford (and not to a remote parkway station). Now, if it has dawned on him, perhaps I’ve achieved something. But would love to see some confirmation.

  30. Cud Chewer @ #777 Tuesday, June 21st, 2022 – 7:33 pm

    rhwombat

    I’m still livid at Brendan getting honours for his heroic and professional actions regarding covid. Orwell would be proud..

    Within the profession, national honours are now usually considered either payment for political services rendered or consolation prizes for has-beens/never-weres who live long enough for their political patrons to regain power. There are, of course, a few notable exceptions – like Mary Louise McLaws.

  33. In the Opposition Oracle…

    Libs plotting a federal return for Frydenberg
    The Liberal Party has begun paving the way for Josh Frydenberg to return to parliament.

  34. I’ve just watched the final episode in Netflix’s Keep Sweet, Obey and Pray about the FLDS.

    Just fascinating how strong a grip religion can have on people. And the type of men (it’s invariably men) who use religion to advance their evil.

  39. Rex

    What do you make of Suburban rail loop project in suburban Melbourne

    To be honest, I’ve not been following it for the past year. When I originally saw it, I was like yeah, this has some merit. But Melbourne also lacks a fast east-west axis.

    It also complicates things in terms of where you’d build a Melbourne North peripheral station for HSR. Presumably it would now have to be one of the SRL stations and I’ve no doubt there will be lack of forethought and planning over integrating the two.

  41. Rex, Socrates, Cud Chewer

    I wonder if the government doesn’t need to reimagine defence procurement (I should say I have little experience in this area as I was always an end user).

    The US produce a National Security Strategy (NSS) annually, some years it changes incrementally and sometimes more significantly. Because this is done annually, everyone sings from the same sheet of music and pivoting and adapting is less traumatic.

    To the best of my knowledge, no such NSS exists in Australia,k at least in such a regular format. The best we have to offer are White Papers that are often outdated not long after distribution due to the long time frames between development. This is the first step to a prescient and forward looking Defence Strategy and must precede the planning for materiel.

  42. Re Ven at 9.58 am and Itza Dream at 2.29 pm on Shovel about subsidising “Porky” 24/7 in the USA

    Flag joke made for Sydney Harbour Bridge by Right Royal Rorters Pty Ltd was much funnier than this:

    https://www.theshovel.com.au/2021/09/01/spread-of-john-barilaro-regional-nsw/ (Covid = no joke)

    Seriously, this is a real opportunity and test for Minns and NSW Labor. Last year the NSW budget was overshadowed by the Claytons response to the Delta strain overseen by Gladys and Porky Barilaro.

    Now Porky returns for an encore. The upper house inquiry might keep the stench of corruption from getting stale. Why do Perrottet and Kean defend the indefensible? What dirt has Porky got on them?

    Or are they simply incapable of reading the teal leaves correctly, despite the adoration from Gittins?

  44. so the Australians given up on murdock all ready frydenberg was never that good probaly like turnbull dutton moore popular with the base can not imagin him relating to the publick there kept on being reports that costellow may come back frydenberg could allways become victorian opposition leader they bought back guy who is hopels maybi jason wood could go

  46. well isnt brouce atkinson retiring from victorian upper house the liberals have a lot of weak mps in upper house david davis ritch philleps the hard right smith and friends would not be happy with a frydenberg return and briget archer could be a teel on cros bench hope qld and nsw will have get better opposition leaders as peretett seems to be doing a turnbull protending to be progresive to get modderit voters assume will hear about department secreataries in coming days

  50. ‘Claims Boris Johnson tried to hire Carrie as chief of staff ‘ripe for investigation’, says Lord Geidt .. MPs raise allegation in Parliament that Prime Minister tried to appoint his future wife to key role when he was Foreign Secretary .. It was alleged that the pair’s relationship was not public at the time and that Mr Johnson was still married to his second wife, Marina Wheeler’

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/06/20/claims-boris-johnson-tried-hire-carrie-chief-staff-ripe-investigation/

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