Despite the polls not having failed as such, in that they uniformly picked the right winner, it seems we’re having another post-election voting intention polling drought just like we did in 2019. This is unfortunate from my perspective, as it would be interesting to compare Labor’s strength during its honeymoon period with that of newly elected governments past. It also means I have to work harder on material for regular open thread posts. Here’s what I’ve got this time:
• The Reuters Institute last week published its international Digital News Report 2022, the Australian segment of which was conducted by the University of Canberra, which asked questions on media consumption and trust. Respondents were asked to rank their trust in various media brands on a scale of one to ten. Typically for such surveys, this found the highest level of trust in public broadcasters, with ABC News ranking first and SBS News ranking second; television networks and broadsheet newspapers in the middle; and tabloid newspapers, specifically the Herald Sun and the Daily Telegraph, ranking last. The survey was conducted online in January and February from a sample of 2038.
• In an address to the National Press Club last week, Labor national secretary Paul Erickson dated a shift in voter sentiment in Labor’s favour from the announcement of the Solomon Islands’ pact with China on April 1. Erickson said voters were struck by the contrast between the Coalition’s “immature” warmongering rhetoric and attempts to associate Labor with the Chinese Communist Party and Labor’s promise to “restore Australia’s place as the partner of choice” for Pacific Islands countries. He further noted that the rot set in for Scott Morrison amid COVID outbreaks in mid-2021, when Labor internal polling showed his net competence score fall by 14 points in two weeks over late June and early July. The Coalition was also damaged by cabinet ministers’ partisan attacks on state governments in Western Australia and Victoria, and it was rated lower by voters on housing and wages.
• Saturday’s Financial Review reported on the Australian Electoral Commission’s efforts to confront online disinformation about the election process head on, through the work of its election integrity assurance taskforce and a media unit that abandoned bureaucratic formality in engaging with social media on social media’s terms. Electoral commissioner Tom Rogers claimed they had a “70 to 80 per cent success rate in changing minds”, and that Twitter had been “a bit self-correcting as a result”: “Someone would say something and you’d see people say, ‘hang on, that doesn’t sound right, I heard the AEC say this or that’”.
• Tom Rogers also foreshadows possible changes to electoral laws to allow for faster counting of postal votes after election day by streamlining the existing process whereby ballots are sorted at a central location and then sent to the voter’s electorate before they are counted.
• Nominations for the South Australian state by-election for Bragg on July 2 closed on Thursday, drawing a field of six candidates who are listed on my by-election guide.
Other recent posts on the site:
• A post on the Queensland Senate result, which was confirmed on Thursday. The buttons will be pressed today on the results for New South Wales at 9:30am and, most interestingly, Victoria at 10am. That will just leave Western Australia – the post just linked to considers at length the remote possibility that Labor might not win a third seat, as is being generally assumed.
• Courtesy of Adrian Beaumont, a preview and live commentary of France’s legislative elections, plus news on British by-elections and American opinion polling.
• A post on Saturday’s Callide state by-election in Queensland, a safe conservative seat which the Liberal National Party has retained with a swing in its favour of 6.5% against Labor.
Hmmmmmmm……watching ABC news on the QLD budget. Coal royalties a big factor and they have raised them from $10-$15/tonne on Coal priced at $150/tonne, AND introduced a “sliding scale” of up to 40% if its sold at higher prices. Bravo say me. Its not a “new”tax and is would think they have legal advice that they can do this cause…you know…they are Government. Certainly not an issue with Joe Public as long as the coal companies dont go bust in a time they are making excruciatingly high profits. 🙂
Wonder if other state and territory Govt’s may see this as a model for getting better value for things like the Gas that the people own and companies exploit?? 🙂 Maybe differential royalty rates depending on if the resource is used domestically, value added domestically, or exported??
This isn’t going away anytime soon.
Just focusing on the New York position (there are others). Stipulations included cabinet approval.
2021
July
Shortlist interviews
August
Jenny West (click for CV as on NSW Treasury website) told by Berejiklian she had the job
September
West is told (before her appointment had been made public) that the position had been rescinded. She received a settlement, and left the public service.
October
Barilaro resigns from parliament Oct 4
December
The Americas trade position is readvertised
2022
July
Barilaro gets the gig, without cabinet vetting.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/21/john-barilaro-got-trade-job-after-senior-public-servant-had-already-been-offered-it
Sort of a snap (I’m a slow drafter) with Mavis.
ItzaDream @ #803 Tuesday, June 21st, 2022 – 6:49 pm
Get that pork on your fork.
Cud Chewer @ #793 Tuesday, June 21st, 2022 – 8:18 pm
You’re yanking my chain! There is NO ‘sensible extreme right’. Just some guy that they of the Extreme Right mistakenly believe can sell it better than ProMo did. 😆
So, like I said. Didn’t they get the message that the electorate of Kooyong specifically sent?
ItzaDream @ #802 Tuesday, June 21st, 2022 – 8:48 pm
There’s something rotten in the state of New South Wales.
Politics is really a stinking business, and both sides are responsible thereof, the only counter to it is a truly independent & appropriately resourced integrity commission. Let’s hope we see one federally asap. Pepys.
And while we’re on The Italian Stallion (Neutered), from Queanbeyan, whatever happened to the deal that friendlyjordies exposed wrt the club that Barilaro did over?
It’s like: oh if we just wait six months no one will notice!! Much.
CC @ 8.21pm
“Submarines are obsolete.”
I’ve been waiting for someone to begin talking about this ?
Another fantastic move by the new federal government:
Charities relieved over Labor pledge to scrap gag clauses
The charities sector says it is breathing “a sigh of relief” after the new assistant minister for charities and Treasury, Andrew Leigh, pledged to scrap gag clauses which restricted nonprofits from speaking about public policy.
Leigh said the federal government wanted to encourage social, legal and environmental charities to give feedback on policies – calling the former Coalition government’s opposite stance an “attack on democracy”.
I have a feeling that the new government have moved with alacrity to unpick the evil from the fabric of Australian society that the Coalition had woven into it.
“Submarines are obsolete.”
Short response. Sandystorm 🙁
I don’t know how they thought they were going to get away with the Barilaro appointment.
It has an absolute stench.
He’s never going to get to take up that position, and someone’s head will roll for it.
Goll says:
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 at 9:10 pm
CC @ 8.21pm
“Submarines are obsolete.”
“I’ve been waiting for someone to begin talking about this ?”
Unmanned submarines have huge potential.
Cronus @ #814 Tuesday, June 21st, 2022 – 9:24 pm
To carry out missions tasked to them by a manned undersea control centre/submarine.
Nah, drone control will be accomplished from land, via satellite uplink. And/or they’ll have some capacity to operate autonomously.
Good News
ABCC has been defunded, another quiet & efficient move by Albo
a r @ #816 Tuesday, June 21st, 2022 – 7:43 pm
I doubt it, the limitations of underwater communications are too limiting.
Is HSR still a real proposal and not just something people pretend is on the agenda to satisfy certain interest groups? It has long seemed to me that absolutely nobody on any side of state or politics has any real interest in sinking the required money into the proverbial pit.
Red Clyde @ #817 Tuesday, June 21st, 2022 – 9:43 pm
Did you read the story about the ABCC conspiring with the Master Builders before the election to craft ads denigrating Labor? Tony Bourke was not happy.
Japan’s Yen falls to 136 per US Dollar, the lowest in over 23 years
I really cannot believe that the Barilaro appointment is true. But it is. I expect “Cabinet” to duck responsibility and say it wasn’t us and point to some scapegoat public servant? This absolutely stinks. And after he gave evidence about vacating public life didn’t he?
Whilst the Nine lot have been fawning over the Budget this is going to get forgotten fast. That’s the whole point I guess. Disgraceful.
Cat,
Yet another target for FICAC, at this rate they’re gonna need 10 commissions to get through the backlog
I didn’t think the Wilkinson speech said anything controversial and it’s a drop in a bucket compared to most publicity for the case so I can understand the Ten lawyers advice. It sounds like MacCallum CJ was on a hair trigger for any additional publicity of any kind.
I do think the judge is being overly precious about this. The jury can be given instructions to disregard what they may have heard in the media about the case (which is really not very much, I suspect, in practice). Most publicity has focussed more on the Morrison government’s response than the actual case. I can’t imagine Wilkinson’s speech actually tipped any kind of balance in reality.
Ever since OJ was found not guilty I’ve been a great believer in the ability of juries to ignore pre-trial publicity.
Re Wranslide at 9.55 pm and possible short memories of the Porky in Manhattan scandal
Depends somewhat on whether any credible journalists remain in NSW. Clear from the timeline that Itza posted that Gladys knows the details, though the dirty work was completed after she resigned. Are there any journalists in NSW able to entice or goad St Gladys into revealing more shady deals in Macquarie St?
Dr Doolittle Saint Gladys is a loyal servant. Doubt she will tittle tattle
Her mantle in the NSW press gallery has been taken by Saint Keane. And he said it was all above board and proper process followed. That’s a big call to make for someone who has actively courted them into writing stories about how much tension there is between them. Now he has bought in. Doubt the press gallery will do much to hold their patron saint to account. Maybe an opinion piece from Smith in the Nine paper about how great the budget is again. Gone are the days of Mitchell and Clennell.
Ray
Yeah, its penny pinching. Eventually they will run into capacity issues.
C@t
Guilty, as charged 🙂
Look I’m no fan of the ABCC, but if it has been defunded, that’s pretty shameful behavior from the government given the legislation which created it hasn’t yet been repealed.
The executive shouldn’t be able to just bypass parliament to abolish organizations created by a law of the land. It sets a very dangerous precedent.
Goll
I put my toe into the submarine issue last year, and quickly thought better of it.
Tman there are need for some urgent savings. The ABCC seemed an easy way to make them urgently given they were going anyway. They were a pretty partisan lot if you ask me.
Arky
Well, those last two words make it hard for me to give a straight bat answer…
Tman
You’re kidding right?
You’re worried about the legal niceties about an organisation that was set up to be the stormtroopers for the large Building Corporations to strip the legal rights of workers & Unions, to initiate Star Chambers & impose outrageous fines to financial cripple them all at the behest of the Tories ideological hatred of organised labour. No here’s a better idea let’s dick around & run it through Parliament and let Murdoch & the Liberals run another divisive scare campaign
I wouldn’t consider the separation of powers to be a legal nicety but rather a fairly fundamental part of a Westminister democracy.
I don’t care how abhorrent an organization is, the law is the law and the executive shouldn’t be able to ignore a law by fiat. Until the parliament votes it out of existence, the ABCC exists and should be funded to a level which allows it to continue to operate.
Apart from anything you should be worried about the precedent it sets when a future Liberal governments starts defunding any entity it disagrees with based on this precedent.
Cat/Cronus/Goll/CC
“ Goll says:
Tuesday, June 21, 2022 at 9:10 pm
CC @ 8.21pm
“Submarines are obsolete.”
“I’ve been waiting for someone to begin talking about this ?”
Unmanned submarines have huge potential”
There is lots of technical debate on this right now but I will give my view:
1. Yes uncrewed submarines (UUVs) have huge potential. More than potential, they are starting to enter service in advanced navies around the world. They are cheaper, can dive deeper, and nobody gets killed if they are sunk. However so far they are unarmed and low speed. So they do NOT yet replace crewed subs.
2. No, crewed submarines are NOT obsolete. In fact, right now, there is a world wide building boom in submarines. There is a queue to buy them.
Reasons why SSNs/SSKs are not obsolete:
– at present modern subs are almost impossible to find. They are the apex predators at sea.
– there has been theoretical work to suggest ways subs could be tracked in future with more powerful supercomputers and scanning of oceans for minute variations in surface level, magnetic field and radiation isotopes. None of these things can be done now – it is a future possibility. And new subs are already being designed to defeat these measures.
– so if all the research works out, and no countermeasures arise, subs could be more easily locatable in 30 years time. They will still be really hard to hit and kill, especially if in deep water.
– then subs might have to be confined to deep water, and send expendable uncrewed subs into shallow water. Limited, but not obsolete.
– if the research fails or is countered subs will remain the most dangerous warships.
– the physics of communications underwater is such that uncrewed subs will still be controlled by a nearby crewed sub.
3. The real problem with naval procurement is the other way around. Many analysts think surface ships, not subs, are becoming obsolete. Satellites can scan for them and locate them in real time. Anti ship missiles are now cheaper, longer ranged, more accurate and reliable than in the Falklands War. They can target any located ship accurately. If one missile gets through the ship is toast. Look at the Moskva vs Ukraine – even a huge ship with over 100 defensive missiles could not stop two modern sea skimming missiles.
Scott Morrison’s 2020 ‘home by Christmas’ pledge to stranded Australians made before discussion within government, report finds
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/21/scott-morrisons-2020-home-by-christmas-pledge-to-stranded-australians-made-before-discussion-within-government-report-finds
Red Clyde
“ Good News
ABCC has been defunded, another quiet & efficient move by Albo”
Well Albo does have to make cuts to pay back the Frydendebt and prevent a Morrecession. Nice choice of cut 🙂 Every cloud has a silver lining.
[bad metaphor]
Tman
“ Apart from anything you should be worried about the precedent it sets when a future Liberal governments starts defunding any entity it disagrees with based on this precedent.”
I think that ship sailed nine years ago. Have you forgotten the Abbott cuts to the ABC and many other organisations?
Tman
Maybe you haven’t noticed the defunding of numerous Departments over the last decade such as Universities, CSIRO EPA etc by the Tories that that didn’t suit their ideological bent, surely the LIBERALS wouldn’t break conventions to do dodgy if not illegal stuff. No Labor must always do the right thing, play by the rules & turn the other cheek F*#k EM
Socrates
All I will say at this hour is that the question is not what submarines can do, but rather how can you do those things, more cheaply, by other means.
Cud
As expensive as subs are, big surface warships are dearer.
The cancelled Attack Class was $50 billion in 2016$ for 12 subs; $4.2 billion each.
The uncanceled Hunter Class is $45+ billion in 2020 for 9 ships; $5 billion each.
There is no cheaper option that does all the things subs do.
This is why I suggested earlier tonight if the budget is night Labor should do to the Hunter Class what Scomo did to the subs, cancel the Hunters, build more AWDs instead. Faster, jobs in ASC more quickly, and saves >$20 billion.
SSNs will be more expensive but a lot of the cost is upfront training people and upgrading infrastructure to nuclear engineering safety standards. Once that cost is incurred the extra cost per boat is maybe +20% for nuclear propulsion.
Night all.
Socrates
I wasn’t simply talking about surface warships in that “other means”
Just caught up with Lidia Thorpe’s interview on The Project via their YouTube channel. I don’t know how the vast majority of Australians wouldn’t be permanently turned off voting for the Greens after watching that mess.
Why is it that federal politics always attracts the worst idealogues?
Mick,
You’re dead right, the senate seems to be a funnel for people who are just …off
Hi Socrates. Re, this:
“ The Socrates Plan (Project Trireme )
1. Cancel the Hunter Class Frigate program $45 billion saved
2. Adopt the Navantia proposal to build 3 “interim” AWDs. $6 billion spent
3. Extend the AWD build by 6 more ships to replace the Anzacs $12 billion spent (same total employment at ASC)
4. This saves $27 billion on frigates. Combined with the Attack sub budget (+$90 billion) it gives $117 billion for SSNs. That should be enough to pay for the 10 to 12 UK or French SSNs.
5. Advise the USA that we can’t afford the Virginia Class SSNs, wonderful as they are. Don’t waste their time. Instead, hire Electric Boat to oversea the ASC yard upgrade for SSNs. $1 billion spent
6. Halt the “Collins LOTE” project and maintain only. Retire them 2030 to 2035. $3 billion saved
7. Run a tender between UK and France to build 12 SSNs.
– 3 built in UK or France immediately (now to 2030) to avoid a capability gap. If they can’t supply, rule them out.
– 7 to 9 Australian built SSNs in ASC as soon as the capability exists
– the offer must be based on a current design, with minimal modification.
This plan assumes 3 SSNs can replace the capability of 6 Collins. That is a slight stretch but possible. The SSNs can be “double crewed” and spend a lot of each year at sea. As more SSNs get added, our capability increases.
We plainly can’t afford both the Hunter Frigates and the SSNs. The above plan gives the same amount of work to Adelaide and Perth (in fact the AWD shipbuild starts immediately instead of waiting six years for Hunters) saves $28 billion+, and gives similar capability. The Hunters are quite good ASW ships. One class of 12 AWDs, instead of two separate classes, is cheaper, easier to crew and easier to maintain.
If nobody can supply SSNs built quickly, then hire TKM to build 6 new Type 218SG SSKs as interim subs. Under no circumstances pay anyone to produce a new design for an “interim” sub. Waste of time.
Lest this all sound crazy, Hugh White and ASPI have both suggested similar things.”
_____
Similar to the A_E plan, except that I’d also upgrade the RANs two LHDs to embark a mixed air wing for A2/AD work, as per what I wrote at length about on the week end whilst in Bali. Also, my plan has increased emphasis as to the urgency of acquiring lots and lots of strike missiles and modifying existing platforms and weapon systems to take them.
Also, I wouldn’t cancel the Hunter class frigates straight away, but they should at least be postponed until such time as we have laid down 3 further Hobart AWD hulls and a proper independent inquiry can report back as to all aspects involved with the Future Frigates. I suspect that … crimes … may have been committed by former and soon to be former politicians and ADF brass. We should also rethink the size of our frigate/destroyer fleet: I think 15-18 ships is a minimum requirement, with each ship having at least 32 VL cells dedicated for long range strike missiles.
I generally agree with your approach to SSNs, but rather than offend the Americans by simply ruling them out, we should simply make it a contractual requirement that the winning bidder build between 2 and 4 subs ‘over there’ whilst we get our ducks in a row to build the remaining fleet here (with at least two sub hulls being laid down this decade). I think that requirement would see both America and Britain throw in the towel, but perhaps with either BAE or Electric Boat still winning a major contract to help Naval Group get our sub boat industry up to speed asap, and Lockheed Martin (and perhaps BAE again) winning contracts for combat systems and weapons.
The more i think of it, 6 x 218s – even without American combat systems and weapons – would be a very good ‘off the shelf’ option. Build them in Keil for about $800 million a unit in 2020 constant dollars so the Collins can be safely retired (not on your time frame, but about 7 years later – ie. 2037 to 45. I would add that I’m not adverse to some modifications to the 218 design provided that it is guaranteed that there is no blow outs in both budget, but especially build times. We must demand that the first 2-3 subs are in operation by 2030/31 at the latest.
Having 6 lightly crewed 218AUs patrolling the reaches of the Air-Sea gap from the Solomon Islands to Arafura sea from FOBs in Townsville/Darwin would mean that we could easily ‘get away with’ only 6 Virginia Class SSNs for more deep water oceanic patrols IF it turns out that the Americans can accomodate our requirements after all. If Dutton’s ‘hope’ proves fruitful, we could have 3 x 218AU by 2030/31, 6 x collins still in service and 2 x Block 4/5 Virginias (perhaps undertaking jointer operations with a visiting American boat so that they can operate in a group of three). Thereafter, the six Collins class subs can be retired at leisure as the three remaining 218s are introduced into service and the ‘Aussie Virginias’ are actually completed, hopefully from 2038/40 onwards.
Obviously, if we get British or French SSNs, we could probably get away with only 3 x 218s, and ultimately an SSN fleet of 10/12 boats.
Socrates at 11:21pm – spot on: manned subs are not obsolete. Even with theoretical advances they wont be obsolete as they are presently used until the middle of the century and thereafter they will still be a very potent platform used in slightly different ways. More to the point, the issue is not with the replacement of manned subs with UUVs, buy how manned and unmanned platforms will team together (this is in fact a recurring theme of 21st century warfare on ground, air and at sea). Have a look at the French Barracuda designs: the hull is specifically designed with this in mid, so it wont be obsolete for the next 50 years, no matter what happens with technical developments.
“ All I will say at this hour is that the question is not what submarines can do, but rather how can you do those things, more cheaply, by other means.”
One doesn’t get a budget dividend if you lose a kinetic war. A submarine fleet is by far and away the most important A2/AD asset we could have to defend the homeland: worth more in terms of defending the homeland than any other platform (but we also need other platforms to team with, especially satellites, drones, stealth aircraft and missiles. Lots and lots of missiles).
“ Look at the Moskva vs Ukraine – even a huge ship with over 100 defensive missiles could not stop two modern sea skimming missiles.”
I think your comparison between a RAN surface fleet conducting A2/AD operations – having been guided into position by satellites, drones and stealth aircraft to just outside the air-sea gap (ie. well over 500nm from either the Australian mainland, or at least any strategic target) and then launching a missile swarm whilst an enemy is still 500-100nm further away AND the sinking of the Moskva in the pond called the Black Sea is misplaced. Lacks context.
Andrew_Earlwood,
Whilst its fun to talk budgets, I love to talk maintenance.
You know who isn’t like me? the RAN.
Remember when that volcano blew up in the pacific and SfM sent one our helicopter landing ships to help. But instead of helping, the ship got covid and then broke down for a few weeks with no electricity etc etc.
That was a big scandal that defence got away with. It points to an underlying gap in our ability to professionally run and own the things we have.
The term, all the gear and no idea, springs to mind. Some people seem to think that going shopping in the back of a soldier of fortune magazine and getting all kitted out makes you a competent soldier.
Whatever mix of ships and subs you put in place for the country, you actually need sailors for them. The navy doesn’t pay well, and houses aren’t affordable. Why do hardship in an already hard world?
And for fun, Adam bandt won’t stand up for the ANF, why should a young person have to?