Despite the polls not having failed as such, in that they uniformly picked the right winner, it seems we’re having another post-election voting intention polling drought just like we did in 2019. This is unfortunate from my perspective, as it would be interesting to compare Labor’s strength during its honeymoon period with that of newly elected governments past. It also means I have to work harder on material for regular open thread posts. Here’s what I’ve got this time:
• The Reuters Institute last week published its international Digital News Report 2022, the Australian segment of which was conducted by the University of Canberra, which asked questions on media consumption and trust. Respondents were asked to rank their trust in various media brands on a scale of one to ten. Typically for such surveys, this found the highest level of trust in public broadcasters, with ABC News ranking first and SBS News ranking second; television networks and broadsheet newspapers in the middle; and tabloid newspapers, specifically the Herald Sun and the Daily Telegraph, ranking last. The survey was conducted online in January and February from a sample of 2038.
• In an address to the National Press Club last week, Labor national secretary Paul Erickson dated a shift in voter sentiment in Labor’s favour from the announcement of the Solomon Islands’ pact with China on April 1. Erickson said voters were struck by the contrast between the Coalition’s “immature” warmongering rhetoric and attempts to associate Labor with the Chinese Communist Party and Labor’s promise to “restore Australia’s place as the partner of choice” for Pacific Islands countries. He further noted that the rot set in for Scott Morrison amid COVID outbreaks in mid-2021, when Labor internal polling showed his net competence score fall by 14 points in two weeks over late June and early July. The Coalition was also damaged by cabinet ministers’ partisan attacks on state governments in Western Australia and Victoria, and it was rated lower by voters on housing and wages.
• Saturday’s Financial Review reported on the Australian Electoral Commission’s efforts to confront online disinformation about the election process head on, through the work of its election integrity assurance taskforce and a media unit that abandoned bureaucratic formality in engaging with social media on social media’s terms. Electoral commissioner Tom Rogers claimed they had a “70 to 80 per cent success rate in changing minds”, and that Twitter had been “a bit self-correcting as a result”: “Someone would say something and you’d see people say, ‘hang on, that doesn’t sound right, I heard the AEC say this or that’”.
• Tom Rogers also foreshadows possible changes to electoral laws to allow for faster counting of postal votes after election day by streamlining the existing process whereby ballots are sorted at a central location and then sent to the voter’s electorate before they are counted.
• Nominations for the South Australian state by-election for Bragg on July 2 closed on Thursday, drawing a field of six candidates who are listed on my by-election guide.
Other recent posts on the site:
• A post on the Queensland Senate result, which was confirmed on Thursday. The buttons will be pressed today on the results for New South Wales at 9:30am and, most interestingly, Victoria at 10am. That will just leave Western Australia – the post just linked to considers at length the remote possibility that Labor might not win a third seat, as is being generally assumed.
• Courtesy of Adrian Beaumont, a preview and live commentary of France’s legislative elections, plus news on British by-elections and American opinion polling.
• A post on Saturday’s Callide state by-election in Queensland, a safe conservative seat which the Liberal National Party has retained with a swing in its favour of 6.5% against Labor.
I think this is a very sensible and reasonable policy. When athletes use drugs to enhance their muscles and overall strength to gain an advantage we can easily recognise that as unfair and ban them. Yet when a trans women benefits from the effects of male testosterone to gain an advantage there are some who seem to think that’s perfectly ok. I don’t.
A useful Tweet for Chalmers to quote:
“ian bremmer@ianbremmer·12h
us: left govt, high inflation
uk: right govt, high inflation
germany: centrist govt, high inflation
italy: everyone in govt, high inflation
wild guess: its not the government”
Regarding the bunching of support for the Coalition in the 65 plus cohort, an article concerning this very topic I remember from about 2-3 years ago….maybe just after Labor’s 2019 disappointment….? However, the analysis suggested that as time goes on, while the 65 plus cohort is quite big and influential, its impact will wane and hence the pickings for the LNP will become leaner. The same article also suggested the impact of the Murdoch press – especially that part which still uses paper – will also decline in impact.
Seems this article was on the money but for the life of me, I can’t remember who wrote it….In any event, someone who knew what demographics mean……
Themunz: “Recent count over 20 million. Assume half go electric at average battery size 50kWh that is one hell of a lot of storage.”
Batteries for EV’s are actually larger than that now, but if we went with those figures, the car fleet would have an expected battery capacity of 500GWh. That’s about 75% of the requirement of 24hrs of grid usage today.
But that’s working on the premise that the grid won’t need to expand, and it will. Especially if you need to power 10 million EV’s.
Socrates
I’d suggest they use a different example of ‘left’ .
Ray (UK)
I note some UK articles critical of Starmer/Labour, such as…
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/19/he-comes-over-as-weak-keir-starmer-fails-to-convince-wakefield-voters
I also recall similar feelings about Albo/Labor BEFORE May 21.
Obviously, the specific circumstances of our two nations are different, but both have experienced the fruits of ideologically-driven, probably corrupt, Right wing screw-ups.
Almost by definition, Centre-Left parties/leaders these days can’t look ‘strong’ because they have to stitch together several constituencies of support to gain govt. Hopefully, Starmer and UK Labour can do the stitching together – unless he’s fined by police. In which case, how do feel about Andy Burnham (who, admittedly, would need to re-enter parliament)?
Bystander, all that stuff from FINA proves to me is that this is not something that requires governments to address, nor did it ever. The sports bodies themselves are quite capable of implementing their own policies so that their sport best supports their competitors.
Pi @ #111 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 9:57 am
On rare occasions it does.
That’s Finkle’s point, the system ultimately needs to be over engineered to provide the security of supply.
Never said it did, but it is the element that will allow us to let go of fossil fuels for any power production.
They serve different purposes, so how are they even comparable?
“I think this is a very sensible and reasonable policy. When athletes use drugs to enhance their muscles and overall strength to gain an advantage we can easily recognise that as unfair and ban them. Yet when a trans women benefits from the effects of male testosterone to gain an advantage there are some who seem to think that’s perfectly ok. I don’t.”
Except there isn’t a clear easy path for pre-puberty transition, socially there is strong opposition ‘they are just children’ and I’m not sure there is a medicare funded path to ensure a boy wanting to transition is not ‘tainted’ (f*ck this is an ugly debate to even be having) puberty.
And I’m very sure the bigots will be very accepting of both creation of this path and the involvement in competitions of those who pass (*sarcasm alert* they will be vicious against anyone who passes the deliberately impossible to pass test).
The cruelty is the point.
nath @ #112 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 9:58 am
??????
Tricot
Much lol for me. I remember reading articles predicting a grim electoral future for the Liberal party and J Howard for just those reasons 20+ years ago.
That Labor won so well in the Reps was great…The Senate always seemed more problematical.
However, whether Labor gets one more in WA or not, the result of the great lower house win was the best point….
After the Rudd-Gillard years, especially with Albanese’s skills in the Reps, coping with the debris groups in the Senate is just in a day’s work……
I suspect there are 2-3 Senators – other and Labor/Green – who have enough brains to support most legislation to come through…..
Me: “You know what’s weird? The amount of people that can’t grasp that the wind doesn’t stop blowing at night.”
Barney: “On rare occasions it does.”
Not everywhere it doesn’t. The Australian grid from end to end is over 5000km. At no point ever does that grid not have access to wind power.
And the wind stopping in some locales, for short durations, is not like a coal plant or gas plant blowing up, or breaking down, or the fuel disappears, or otherwise falling apart, rendering the entire energy generation facility unusable for months. Which happens all. of. the. time. One you can model (wind), one you can’t. For some reason the unreliability of coal and gas never gets compared to the intermittent nature of a grid 5000km from end to end, even when it’s statistically possible to model one and not the other.
Barney: ” how are they even comparable?”
Storage isn’t necessary until we get to the point where we don’t require ANY fossil fuels in the entire grid at some point in time. We’re years before we get to this point in the Oz grid. SA has had a couple of weeks of it happening once, and that’s great. To get the rest of the grid to where SA is now is still a fair bit off. THAT is when storage is a requirement.
Watermelon @ #130 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 10:35 am
A Green supporter talking about political astuteness. 😆 😆 😆
Pi says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 1:17 pm
Bystander, all that stuff from FINA proves to me is that this is not something that requires governments to address, nor did it ever. The sports bodies themselves are quite capable of implementing their own policies so that their sport best supports their competitors.
—————————
That’s exactly what i was telling you.
Cronus @ #122 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 12:18 pm
Exactly. Proving that he’s smarter than Watermelon and Player One, combined. He said that, in a democracy, if you don’t like our policies, don’t vote for us, vote for the other guy. The electorate, selfishly -inclined, didn’t like Labor’s policies, so they didn’t vote for them.
To Watermelon’s point, he could have put one or other word differently, however that does not equate to the other point that they made, being that Chris Bowen should be ‘put out to pasture’ as a result. That’s just facile and pointlessly vindictive.
“ABC News (Canberra) this morning saying that ‘modelling’ had been done to show that Zed would have got in if not for Pocock! File this under “No Shit Sherlock”.”
Next on ABC news: if Labor didn’t run the Coalition would have retained government. News at 11.
Montana has had a Democrat governor in 16 of the last 20 years. The last one was pro life, accepted climate change science, came around to gun control background checks, pro SSM, pro union and pro Obamacare (even got it through a republican controlled parliament). What a guy.
Tricot
when I was 60 the 70-year-olds I knew fitted the Howard era stereotype. They mostly loved Abbott, read Murdoch and thought young people were layabouts and labor couldn’t be trusted and climate change was Green plot.
Now I’m fast approaching 70 I don’t know anybody around my age like that. We mostly vote Labor, think Abbott and Morrison a dark stain on Australia’s history, worry about climate change and gave up on the mainstream media long ago.
I suspect some of the now 80 year olds I knew a decade ago are still stuck in their ways but they will be outnumbered by the next wave of more progressive seniors.
As we say here often many older people voted Labor for the first time in their lives in WA in 2021 and some did it again in 2022.
The sky hasn’t fallen in yet.
Poroti …..
As I am one of the “65+” mob, I am staggered there are so many stupid old codgers who think the LNP will look after their interest….
To think some of this mob actually took to the streets as the “angry generation” back in the day.
Maybe the saw that when young, one votes for the left and, as one gets older (decrepit), vote LNP? Well, at least for some……………
Late Riser @ #64 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 10:26 am
https://thesociologicalmail.com/2019/06/06/why-do-people-with-higher-education-have-left-wing-political-views/
Another observation I make from St Antony’s pendulum…
‘Marginal’ seats are usually defined as having a margin of less than 6%. On this basis, Labor has 16 marginals in its 77 total (just under 21% of its seats.) The Coalition has 24 marginals in its 58 total (just over 41% of its seats.)
Have we ever seen an Opposition with 1) significantly more marginals than a govt (24 vs 16)? And/or 2) about double the percentage of marginal seats it holds compared to the govt (41% vs 21%)?
Does this mean the Coalition in 2025 has to 1) defend 24 marginals; 2) fend off further Teal encroachments in seats like Bradfield, Cowper and maybe others; and 3) try and win 18 seats in various places to form govt?
If so, interesting challenge!
Rossmcg…..+1
“A useful Tweet for Chalmers to quote:
“ian bremmer@ianbremmer·12h
us: left govt, high inflation
uk: right govt, high inflation
germany: centrist govt, high inflation
italy: everyone in govt, high inflation
wild guess: its not the government”
If Chalmers retweeted that he would fairly attract a chorus of “didn’t you just spend an election campaign whipping the ex government on failing to manage cost of living?”
WWP
There is nothing cruel about protecting women’s sport and putting in place a process to allow trans and intersex people to complete in their class and the disabled Olympics has different classes for its athletes.
“Have we ever seen an Opposition with 1) significantly more marginals than a govt (24 vs 16)? And/or 2) about double the percentage of marginal seats it holds compared to the govt (41% vs 21%)?”
I’m sure the first one is often true and in fact was true at the last election. The second one I’m not so sure but it’s easier to have a high marginal percentage when you get smashed so I’m thinking it probably happened quite a bit in various Labor wipe outs, check 2013, check 1996, check 75 and 77, and no doubt some Menzies era smashings too. On the flip side the Coalition in 1983 and 1943 got destroyed and might have met the conditions then too.
Pi @ #163 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 11:24 am
But it doesn’t suddenly materialise, so there is a need to start preparing element now.
Pi at 1.24
For some reason the unreliability of coal and gas never gets compared to the intermittent nature of a grid 5000km from end to end, even when it’s statistically possible to model one and not the other.
____________
So, an honest Tony Abbott would have said “When the turbines unexpectedly fail or coal supply temporarily runs down, ain’t no electricity for the town!”
I advised my son to cash in his Bitcoin last year. The proliferation of cryptocurrencies made me think of tulips.
Barney: “there is a need to start preparing element now.”
Completely agree. But not to the detriment of building more capacity. We need orders of magnitude more than what we have. Storage is a five to ten year problem. Renewables capacity and transmission is a today problem.
C@tmomma @ #166 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 1:27 pm
Crumbs. You really have issues, C@t.
Tricot at 1:28 pm
I remember back in the 80’s an article had a ‘where are they now ? ‘ look at the hippy , student, anti-war protest leaders of the 60s in the US. Quite a line up of ‘Establishment’ CEOs and ‘captains of industry’ as it turned out 🙂 .
Arky says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 1:27 pm
“ABC News (Canberra) this morning saying that ‘modelling’ had been done to show that Zed would have got in if not for Pocock! File this under “No Shit Sherlock”.”
Next on ABC news: if Labor didn’t run the Coalition would have retained government. News at 11.
_______________________________________
The problem with that analysis is that it ignored Kim Rubinstein. She was the first announced independent in the race, but when Pocock announced he was running he became the more viable candidate because of name recognition and because he would attract football lovers.
The first poll showed him well ahead of Kim Rubinstein and, I suspect, made him first choice for those, like me, who wanted to vote strategically to get rid of Zed.
If Pocock had not run, would Kim have gotten enough votes to beat Zed? I doubt if anyone knows, but the analysis does not even look at this possibility.
If people are intersted, the tulip thing never actually happened.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/
If anything, its continued usage as a narrative speaks to the danger of adopting memes without finding out whether it is only being used as an instrument used to confirm a bias.
Poroti and Tricot re over 65s’ support for the Coalition…
In 6 years, 1 month and 10 days, I look forward to further diluting the strength of support for the Right Wing Bastards Collective among said age group!
@Mexican – I agree but it feels like an observation that would get one expelled from the Greens for making under the current rabid trans ideological purity being demanded in certain quarters. I don’t like that aspect of the American left being imported here anymore than I like the American right backlash against it being imported here.
“WWP
There is nothing cruel about protecting women’s sport and putting in place a process to allow trans and intersex people to complete in their class and the disabled Olympics has different classes for its athletes.”
You’d need science to evaluate the need to ‘protect women’s sport’ and you’d need science to justify the processes to protect. A bar that just can’t be met would need incredibly through science, because you are effectively just excluding a range of people from sport.
You comparing transgender to different abled sports bells the cat my friend, you might want to rethink that comparison.
I suspect swimming organisations are more familiar with covering up sexual assault and abuse than they are with the relevant actual science, but I’ll dig around and see whether this is a stupid bigoted approach or a genuine science based undertaking (where the problem is societal not swimming institutions).
I think the coastal areas, at the very least, need their own mini wind turbine power generating units which would fit into the larger grid supply of power. We have a sub station one suburb across and I know, going by the number of hazardous wind warnings we get here, that if we put some medium-sized wind turbines here, we could power all the suburbs in our general vicinity, for most of the time.
Looks like the crab walk to continuing coal and gas use for energy generation has started by the Labor Govt. I guess if the German Greens could do it so could Labor. 43% or no 43% Narrabri and Scarborough are all systems go!
WWP: “I suspect swimming organisations are more familiar with covering up sexual assault and abuse than they are with the relevant actual science”
That’s quite an offensive thing to say to the millions of people who are a part of swimming organizations.
Wow, Snappy, who is this lucky person? Whoops, perhaps not say……….
Pi – there have been many real speculation bubbles and Ponzi schemes. Would it make you feel better if people said they advised selling bitcoin because it was feeling a bit South Sea Bubble or a bit Pets.Com or maybe a bit Bernie Madoff instead of mentioning tulips?
Snappy Tom says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 1:04 pm
A E at 12.59 re ‘Arkansas’…
“I knew an army officer who’d been posted to the US. On his return to Australia, he decided to standardise his pronunciation of ‘Arkansas’ and ‘Kansas’ by insisting on referring to the Great State of ‘Kin-saw’! (Or was it ‘Ken-saw’?!)”
I spent 12 months living in the great state of Kansas, it confirmed most of my expectations of a bible-belt, tornado-belt Republican state. Nice enough place to visit but …..
Turned out that every state was “the great state” apparently.
Andrew_Earlwood_at_an_undisclosed_location:
Yes. Or at least, to a very close approximation we do – because the AEC has released the full ballot data, which allows us to re-count the election without the Pocock candidates. This assumes that anyone who would have voted Kim in the absence of Pocock, for example, preferenced Kim in the actual election.
You can do the experiment using Andrew Conway’s calculator, which has the actual ballots from the AEC loaded: https://vote.andrewconway.org/Federal%20Senate/2022/ACT/Recount.html
Pi I recommend listening to the latest DavidWoo podcast on crypto – where he discusses whether its got intrinsic value or not.
Dog’s Brunch @ #139 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 12:44 pm
What was the point of ABC going with that ?
Snappy Tom at 1:43 pm
Congratulations on your upcoming ascension to the status of ‘diluent’. 🙂
Re post-election analysis…
What I’m not finding in articles like this…
https://theconversation.com/age-and-education-key-demographics-in-governments-election-loss-anu-study-185374
Is stuff like ‘proportion of over 65s who say they voted Coalition in 2022, compared with the same demographic in 2019.’
Anyone know where this might be found?
A factor in Labor’s win may have been a reduced margin of Coalition success among over 65s, for example.
Pi @ #95 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 1:46 pm
Can I also add having read about the approach swimming took to reach this decision that it appears to
have been considered and consultative
“Can I also add having read about the approach swimming took to reach this decision that it appears to
have been considered and consultative”
I’m not sure science works that way, the working group wasn’t just medical and science experts it had two other streams, ie it was a political compromise before it went to the popular vote.
But they had to rush to make sure Lia Thomas didn’t qualify for Paris, so there is that.
But 12 years old, they have to transition before they are 12 years old. I assume you all who support this are going to support paths for 11 year old children to transition?