Despite the polls not having failed as such, in that they uniformly picked the right winner, it seems we’re having another post-election voting intention polling drought just like we did in 2019. This is unfortunate from my perspective, as it would be interesting to compare Labor’s strength during its honeymoon period with that of newly elected governments past. It also means I have to work harder on material for regular open thread posts. Here’s what I’ve got this time:
• The Reuters Institute last week published its international Digital News Report 2022, the Australian segment of which was conducted by the University of Canberra, which asked questions on media consumption and trust. Respondents were asked to rank their trust in various media brands on a scale of one to ten. Typically for such surveys, this found the highest level of trust in public broadcasters, with ABC News ranking first and SBS News ranking second; television networks and broadsheet newspapers in the middle; and tabloid newspapers, specifically the Herald Sun and the Daily Telegraph, ranking last. The survey was conducted online in January and February from a sample of 2038.
• In an address to the National Press Club last week, Labor national secretary Paul Erickson dated a shift in voter sentiment in Labor’s favour from the announcement of the Solomon Islands’ pact with China on April 1. Erickson said voters were struck by the contrast between the Coalition’s “immature” warmongering rhetoric and attempts to associate Labor with the Chinese Communist Party and Labor’s promise to “restore Australia’s place as the partner of choice” for Pacific Islands countries. He further noted that the rot set in for Scott Morrison amid COVID outbreaks in mid-2021, when Labor internal polling showed his net competence score fall by 14 points in two weeks over late June and early July. The Coalition was also damaged by cabinet ministers’ partisan attacks on state governments in Western Australia and Victoria, and it was rated lower by voters on housing and wages.
• Saturday’s Financial Review reported on the Australian Electoral Commission’s efforts to confront online disinformation about the election process head on, through the work of its election integrity assurance taskforce and a media unit that abandoned bureaucratic formality in engaging with social media on social media’s terms. Electoral commissioner Tom Rogers claimed they had a “70 to 80 per cent success rate in changing minds”, and that Twitter had been “a bit self-correcting as a result”: “Someone would say something and you’d see people say, ‘hang on, that doesn’t sound right, I heard the AEC say this or that’”.
• Tom Rogers also foreshadows possible changes to electoral laws to allow for faster counting of postal votes after election day by streamlining the existing process whereby ballots are sorted at a central location and then sent to the voter’s electorate before they are counted.
• Nominations for the South Australian state by-election for Bragg on July 2 closed on Thursday, drawing a field of six candidates who are listed on my by-election guide.
Other recent posts on the site:
• A post on the Queensland Senate result, which was confirmed on Thursday. The buttons will be pressed today on the results for New South Wales at 9:30am and, most interestingly, Victoria at 10am. That will just leave Western Australia – the post just linked to considers at length the remote possibility that Labor might not win a third seat, as is being generally assumed.
• Courtesy of Adrian Beaumont, a preview and live commentary of France’s legislative elections, plus news on British by-elections and American opinion polling.
• A post on Saturday’s Callide state by-election in Queensland, a safe conservative seat which the Liberal National Party has retained with a swing in its favour of 6.5% against Labor.
Gosh Starmer is dreadful. In the charisma department he makes Bill Shorten look like JFK. Boris’s best asset.
I’m not sure swimming organisations are really in a position to be offended by the reality of child sexual abuse, like the churches they need to be doing all they can to atone for the past and stop it in the future.
Arky, the requirements for a ponzi scheme is for a person to
1. Lie about the existence of returns
2. Use new investor share purchases to pay for previous investors as returns.
If you want to talk about ponzi schemes, go for it. But, like I said, most people who what to talk on this subject don’t really know much that about it, and are really only engaging in the dialogue to confirm an already existing bias. Like I said ealier: The exact same “omg muh cryptocrash” conversations were happening in 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019 and now 2022. In the other years (2013, 2017, 2020 and 2021) the exact opposite “omg muh bubble” was happening. It’s literally one or the other.
Ain’t me trying to convince you either. Personally, I think these instruments are extremely unforgiving and require extensive technical skill to operate safely. If that’s not you, there are far better instruments to suit your requirement. The weird thing is why so many people froth at the mouth trying to convince me that I’m doing something wrong.
Lars at 1.51 re crypto and ‘intrinsic value’…
In capitalism, nothing and no-one has ‘intrinsic value.’ Capitalism has no conscience.
Marxism, on the other hand, embraces a ‘labour theory of value’: a thing has value in relation to the labour required for said thing to exist. Thus, in that schema, labour is the locus of intrinsic value.
WWP
The point is that the Disabled Olympics do divide its competition up into different classes based on an athletics disability and that acts as an example of how professional sports can be more inclusive without disadvantaging any groups.
LVT: “DavidWoo podcast on crypto ”
I’d suggest watching less youtube. Most people don’t understand the concept of intrinsic value either. They get mixed up between the ethical definition and the financial definition, and apply neither. They’re not the same. As in, not even close.
The Piano Man at the G – Unmissable ! 🙂
“WWP
The point is that the Disabled Olympics do divide its competition up into different classes based on an athletics disability and that acts as an example of how professional sports can be more inclusive without disadvantaging any groups.”
I look forward to watching the ‘open’ division swim for Gold in Paris.
Woo basically says crypto can be regulated by government , its not a great hedge for inflation, its trading volumes are small , and its manipulated or controlled by about a dozen large holders.
Seems sensible to me – but individuals can make their own judgements.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 2:08 pm
The Piano Man at the G – Unmissable !
___________________________
Will he be bringing the 35 yr old wife with him? Maybe she’s the reason he’s out touring at 70!
Arky says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 1:43 pm
@Mexican – I agree but it feels like an observation that would get one expelled from the Greens for making under the current rabid trans ideological purity being demanded in certain quarters. I don’t like that aspect of the American left being imported here anymore than I like the American right backlash against it being imported here.
——————
America’s hyper partisan politics is a toxic mess but sports bodies need to find a middle ground that encourages people to play sport.
Pi:
“…never actually happened.” is not what your link says, though. It says there was a period of rampant speculation on tulip bulbs, and it did indeed crash suddenly. It also says that the extent to which this involved wider society and the consequences both for those directly involved and the economy overall were wildly exaggerated by Calvinists. Not quite the same thing as “never actually happened”, though.
‘Andrew_Earlwood in Sydney says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 1:03 pm
If Pocock didn’t run, does anyone know for sure where all of his vote would have landed? Zed may have snuck back in, but one of the other progressive candidates might have pipped him. Who knows for sure. From a distance there did seem to be quite an anti Liberal – especially Zed – sentiment running in the ACT that would have put his lock on the second senate seat in jeopardy.’
—————————-
Canberra sill having a substantial element of old-fashioned public service values had something to do with it, IMO. But what I did notice was that long-time old-fashioned Liberals despised Zed and were prepared to switch votes. IMO this was partly traditional anglophone distaste for foreigners and partly the sort of signals that Pocock sent that resonated: he was honest, an ex colonial made good, and straight from rugger bugger central. But most of all they could not stomach Morrison – a jejeune arriviste with pretensions to personal display.
Me: “If people are intersted, the tulip thing never actually happened.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/there-never-was-real-tulip-fever-180964915/
“If anything, its continued usage as a narrative speaks to the danger of adopting memes without finding out whether it is only being used as an instrument used to confirm a bias.”
caf: ““…never actually happened.” is not what your link says, though.”
Quote from the article : “The only problem: none of these stories are true.”
You should read the article. It’s from the Smithsonian. It’s quite good.
WWP
Even better if an Australian wins it.
caf
Indeed. When I saw ‘it never happened’ I thought ‘Yeah, nah.’ In terms of persistence… my first cuzzes still run the family farm where we have been growing cabbages and tulips and milking cows for a bit longer than three centuries.
Lars Von Trier @ #209 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 2:13 pm
Good luck to him ..!
Yes the Mrs and kids are coming and no doubt a holiday beckons somewhere secluded.
2022-5 Senate
WA ALP 3 Libs 2 Green 1
Overall:
Coalition 32 (-4)
Labor 26 (=)
Greens 12 (+3)
One Nation 2 (=)
Jacqui Lambie Network 2 (+1)
United Australia 1 (+1)
David Pocock 1 (+1)
Centre Alliance 0 (-1)
Rex Patrick Team 0 (-1)
Pisays:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 1:14 pm
According to energy.gov.au the daily generation total for Australia is 253GWh.
That is close to 200% of the requirement for 24hrs.
Adam Bandt has said, “Australia is in an energy crisis that has been caused by the big coal and gas operations that have taken an essential service, made billions of dollars in profit out of it and are now holding homes and businesses to ransom.
Coal and gas co-operationsare the cause of this energy crisis,they are not the answer. Paying coaland gas cooperations to stay in thesystem for longer is not flowing good money after bad but also making the problem was.
The answers stop these cooperations gouging the public and businesses and instead fast track the switch to renewables but help businesses and homes get off gas and onto cheap renewable electricity.”
_______
Isn’t it refreshing to see the injection of such constructive, practical suggestions into the short to medium term energy crisis facing the country.
Pi:
Also a quote from the article:
Your quote “…none of these stories are true” is not referring to every story about the tulip craze – it is referring to the specifically enumerated stories that precedes the quote in the article (the sailor imprisoned for eating a tulip bulb; the improbably expensive Semper Augustus bulb; traders sent into ruin).
I do not comment on articles that I have not read.
BK
Brilliant insights there from Blocker Bandt!
Themunz: “According to energy.gov.au the daily generation total for Australia is 253GWh.”
I source my data from the NEM.
https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem/?range=30d&interval=1d
561GWh yesterday, 567GWh the day before, 601GWh the day before that, 607GWh the day before that, etc.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 2:20 pm
Lars Von Trier @ #209 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 2:13 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 2:08 pm
The Piano Man at the G – Unmissable !
___________________________
Will he be bringing the 35 yr old wife with him? Maybe she’s the reason he’s out touring at 70!
Good luck to him ..!
Yes the Mrs and kids are coming and no doubt a holiday beckons somewhere secluded.
____________________________
His oldest daughter is 1 year older than his incumbent wife.
Excellent news that the ALP got the 3rd WA Senate seat, once again creating a situation where Labor and the Greens plus EITHER Pocock or the Lambie Network are needed to pass legislation in the Senate. In practice I imagine there would regularly be common interest that would see both Pocock and the Lambie Network on board but the less people you are 100% beholden to the better.
Maybe Blocker Band will Save the Planet after all?
caf: “I do not comment on articles that I have not read.”
That’s exactly what you’ve done. You said : “is not what your link says, though.”
The title of the article : “There Never Was a Real Tulip Fever”
Quote from the article : “The only problem: none of these stories are true.”
Sounds to me like you should read it before you comment on it then. This ain’t some random publication either…
Arky
You left out the Nationals. They could well be up for a bit of friendly, collaborative and constructive work with Labor. Unlike the Greens there would be no bullshit with the Nats. They don’t pretend to be anyone’s friends.
Proper servicing of the poorest of the poor: the rural poor could well be a shared interest, for example.
Billy Joel is a serial marrier of 20-somethings. Current wife is number 4 and into her mid 30s… he divorced Christie Brinkley at 40 I think?
Lars Von Trier @ #209 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 2:10 pm
That’s fair enough. The best thing to be with crypto is an issuer. Launch your own cryptocurrency (reserving a proportion of all coins for yourself, as the founder, naturally), create your own NFT’s within an existing cryptocurrency, etc.. The ship has sailed on mining and trading crypto.
Well done Dan.
Pisays:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 2:27 pm
Two government depts that cannot agree!
I’d appreciate if we could reframe from the nicknames. We had “Turtle” Bowen and now we have “Blocker” Bandt.
Disagree with policies but please try to be respectful towards others. I, like many others, tire of the incessant Labor-Green wars on this site.
It makes it hard to sift through to the thoughtful insight many posters have on policy.
@Boer: I expect no quarter from the Nationals.
Arky says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 2:32 pm
Billy Joel is a serial marrier of 20-somethings. Current wife is number 4 and into her mid 30s… he divorced Christie Brinkley at 40 I think?
___________________________
He divorced wife number 3 at age 28 and married her when she was 23 (when he was 58). Apparently she was a graduate of the highly regarded Stony Brook University.
Boerwar @ #227 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 2:31 pm
No bullshit with the Nats eh ..?
Canavan is MADE of bullshit.
Your view of the Nats is weird.
No bullshit about Barnaby either.
Straight down the line too ..?
What a joke.
Pi:
Apparently it is you that didn’t read far beyond the headline, nor bothered to read most of my reply.
Also a quote from the article:
Your quote “…none of these stories are true” is not referring to every story about the tulip craze – it is referring to the specifically enumerated stories that precedes the quote in the article (the sailor imprisoned for eating a tulip bulb; the improbably expensive Semper Augustus bulb; traders sent into ruin).
Being in government means you have to make the hard decisions in a crisis:
caf, you’re deliberately taking a single paragraph out of an extensive article and using it out of context.
And I quote. again: “In fact, “There weren’t that many people involved and the economic repercussions were pretty minor,” Goldgar says. “I couldn’t find anybody that went bankrupt.”…
Stop trying to use quotes out of context, especially when the article itself directly contradicts every other part of your assertions.
This also comes from the article: “So if tulipmania wasn’t actually a calamity, why was it made out to be one? We have tetchy Christian moralists to blame for that. With great wealth comes great social anxiety, or as historian Simon Schama writes in The Embarrassment of Riches: An Interpretation of Dutch Culture in the Golden Age, “The prodigious quality of their success went to their heads, but it also made them a bit queasy.” All the outlandish stories of economic ruin, of an innocent sailor thrown in prison for eating a tulip bulb, of chimney sweeps wading into the market in hopes of striking it rich—those come from propaganda pamphlets published by Dutch Calvinists worried that the tulip-propelled consumerism boom would lead to societal decay. Their insistence that such great wealth was ungodly has even stayed with us to this day.”
The story is just used by a different set of moralists today in a different context, for exactly the same reason.
I’m guessing Australia ends up giving coal miners 8 years to get off the gear and subsidises up to that point so there is reliable power.
That seems like a reasonable compromise.
They probably should ban anybody under the age of 45 working in coal from here on in or at least your going into it eyes open.
AAAAAARGGGHHHH
Somebody is WRONG on the Internet!!!
This must be fixed or the world will collapse!
Pi – I thought you said you weren’t Going to talk about crypto , but here you are.
citizen @ #239 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 2:49 pm
Germany should rethink their nuclear plant closures. They could probably restart some of the recently closed ones quite quickly. They originally shut them down to hasten their transition to renewables (or so they said – I pointed out at the time that this was a dumb thing to do). It makes no sense to move back to coal instead.
No I’m not LVT. I’m talking about the tulip craze that never happened, and backing it up with sources from historians. Centuries before computers dawg.
And it sounds like a whole bunch of people learned something new today. You’re welcome.
WWP posted
That is a separate question from whether older trans women who have the benefit of male hormonal development should be allowed to compete against women who don’t. Personally I don’t think children as young as twelve should be allowed to make the transition.
Pi @ #240 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 2:51 pm
I read the article too. Caf is quite correct.
Yeah, but you’re a known duplicitous person P1. You’ll say anything if you think there’s a transactional gain. I back up my opinion with sources. You wouldn’t understand.
Lars Von Trier @ #235 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 2:05 pm
What is weirder, an old guy who marries younger women or a young woman who marries old guys? Live and let live if you ask me. FWIW, Brinkley has been married 4 times.
Without the neoliberal aversion to long-term government-directed planning of a public infrastructure we wouldn’t be in this mess. Step one is to take accountability for the failure of privatisation and recognise it for the failed experiment that it is.