Despite the polls not having failed as such, in that they uniformly picked the right winner, it seems we’re having another post-election voting intention polling drought just like we did in 2019. This is unfortunate from my perspective, as it would be interesting to compare Labor’s strength during its honeymoon period with that of newly elected governments past. It also means I have to work harder on material for regular open thread posts. Here’s what I’ve got this time:
• The Reuters Institute last week published its international Digital News Report 2022, the Australian segment of which was conducted by the University of Canberra, which asked questions on media consumption and trust. Respondents were asked to rank their trust in various media brands on a scale of one to ten. Typically for such surveys, this found the highest level of trust in public broadcasters, with ABC News ranking first and SBS News ranking second; television networks and broadsheet newspapers in the middle; and tabloid newspapers, specifically the Herald Sun and the Daily Telegraph, ranking last. The survey was conducted online in January and February from a sample of 2038.
• In an address to the National Press Club last week, Labor national secretary Paul Erickson dated a shift in voter sentiment in Labor’s favour from the announcement of the Solomon Islands’ pact with China on April 1. Erickson said voters were struck by the contrast between the Coalition’s “immature” warmongering rhetoric and attempts to associate Labor with the Chinese Communist Party and Labor’s promise to “restore Australia’s place as the partner of choice” for Pacific Islands countries. He further noted that the rot set in for Scott Morrison amid COVID outbreaks in mid-2021, when Labor internal polling showed his net competence score fall by 14 points in two weeks over late June and early July. The Coalition was also damaged by cabinet ministers’ partisan attacks on state governments in Western Australia and Victoria, and it was rated lower by voters on housing and wages.
• Saturday’s Financial Review reported on the Australian Electoral Commission’s efforts to confront online disinformation about the election process head on, through the work of its election integrity assurance taskforce and a media unit that abandoned bureaucratic formality in engaging with social media on social media’s terms. Electoral commissioner Tom Rogers claimed they had a “70 to 80 per cent success rate in changing minds”, and that Twitter had been “a bit self-correcting as a result”: “Someone would say something and you’d see people say, ‘hang on, that doesn’t sound right, I heard the AEC say this or that’”.
• Tom Rogers also foreshadows possible changes to electoral laws to allow for faster counting of postal votes after election day by streamlining the existing process whereby ballots are sorted at a central location and then sent to the voter’s electorate before they are counted.
• Nominations for the South Australian state by-election for Bragg on July 2 closed on Thursday, drawing a field of six candidates who are listed on my by-election guide.
Other recent posts on the site:
• A post on the Queensland Senate result, which was confirmed on Thursday. The buttons will be pressed today on the results for New South Wales at 9:30am and, most interestingly, Victoria at 10am. That will just leave Western Australia – the post just linked to considers at length the remote possibility that Labor might not win a third seat, as is being generally assumed.
• Courtesy of Adrian Beaumont, a preview and live commentary of France’s legislative elections, plus news on British by-elections and American opinion polling.
• A post on Saturday’s Callide state by-election in Queensland, a safe conservative seat which the Liberal National Party has retained with a swing in its favour of 6.5% against Labor.
https://spockandchristine.com/biography/elizabeth-ann-weber/
Apparently the first Mrs Joel was a piece of work too!
Pi @ #248 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 3:01 pm
Sure you do. But next time, try actually reading past the first paragraph, as both caf and I have but you apparently have not. The point of your article is that the story of Tulipmania has been exaggerated for effect, not that it did not occur. It did.
P1: ” try actually reading past the first paragraph”
I quoted the last paragraph dummy.
Let’s re-cap on the title: There Never Was a Real Tulip Fever
reading skillz… do you have them?
citizen @ #241 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 2:49 pm
Not being in government means the Australian Greens can carp all the live long day.
LOL yes Boerwar the Nats love nothing more than spending money on remote indigenous communities. Oh wait that’s not who you meant was it.
Bullshit Bandt will Save the Planet, Save the Reef, extract SEVEN DEMANDS FOR $173 BILLION, build a million houses where the NIMBY sun don’t shine and far away from windmills; AND stop extinctions by 2030.
And reduce airport noise above Greens voters in Brisbane.
There is no political difference between Bandt and Littleproud.
Both seek to baffle the punters with bullshit.
Lars Von Trier @ #251 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 2:38 pm
We dont want our musicians settling down into humdrum. “She’s Always a Woman” is a great tune.
the swimming looking at trans gender is a distraction from the abuse scandle and swimmers unhappy with the leadershipuk labor should get rid of starmer he is uncharismatic and cickt out corbin which i did not like as the former secretary who coverd up the anti semitizm to make corbin look bad is still a labor rep in house of lords but resigned as wipp the right members that did the same have stayed maybi nandi should be leader
Pi @ #255 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 3:10 pm
You really are wasting precious time giving Player One more than the time of day. Unless you feel like arguing with one of those rubber balls that always bounces back (displaying approximately the same level of sentience and awareness), with some condescending snark.
Uh huh.
The only rural poor are Indigenous. You can sort of see right there why the Greens’ national vote barely got past 12%.
Snappy Tom @ #156 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 4:16 am
I gave Andy Burnham my 1st preference for the Labour leadership back in the 2010 contest 🙂 He’d be great IMO but there is the problem of getting him back into parliament. That Guardian article also mentions Barnsley’s Dan Jarvis who I was spruiking here a year or so ago. He’d be an improvement too
One of the strangest things about Starmer to me is that for a QC he really doesn’t speak in public very well .. compare and contrast to gab merchants of old like Ken Clarke from the Tories or Tony Blair
He’s also gone out of his way to pick unnecessary fights with the left wing of the party IMO
I’ve said before I’m convinced Durham Constabulary are going to jib him so it’ll be on soon enough
It is obvious to me why Labor would look at the Nats and the Greens through the same prism. Naturally it is difficult for both the Nats and the Greens to understand this.
But then neither have been listening to anybody but themselves for the past 9 years: a difficult habit to break.
I am sure that Labor has sent feelers to Littleproud to see what deals he might be interested in.
Stand by for a surprise.
Pi @ #253 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 3:10 pm
Honestly. Just admit your mistake – at least to yourself – and move on.
Jan 6,
Keep your eye on this guy, maybe at the next presidential election but if not then, hopefully the one after:
Jared Schutz Polis is an American politician and businessman, serving as the 43rd governor of Colorado since January 2019. He served one term on the Colorado State Board of Education from 2001 to 2007, and five terms as the United States representative from Colorado’s 2nd congressional district from 2009 to 2019.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jared_Polis
Aaron newton @ #259 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 3:16 pm
The usually bullshit Blairites were quite honestly happy and forthright to weaponize anti-semitism to keep the Tories in Power. They were very upfront about.
Boerwarsays:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:17 pm
The only rural poor are Indigenous.
————-
By far the stupidest thing you’ve ever posted.
So ALP+Greens have an absolute block on any motion.
ALP 26, Greens 12 = 38 of 76 Senators
With +1 of any one of the following, an absolute majority to pass any motion.
Pocock
Lambie x 2
PHoN x2
UAP x1
The Coalition has to get every single one of them to vote No to negative the motion.
Unless of course the Greens vote with the coalition cf CPRS
‘Gareth says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:21 pm
Boerwarsays:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:17 pm
The only rural poor are Indigenous.
————-
By far the stupidest thing you’ve ever posted.’
============================
True. What I was doing was explicating Watermelon’s views which are not mine. I have no doubt at all that the Nats would support the Labor Government’s efforts to help people in rural and remote regions. OTOH, I know that Block Bandt and the Stuntmeisters would see it as their bounden duty to sort the rural poor by color. (See Watermelon, above, for an example.)
Gareth @ #266 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 3:21 pm
Woah! Big call! 🙂
c@t: “You really are wasting precious time giving Player One more than the time of day. Unless you feel like arguing with one of those rubber balls that always bounces back (displaying approximately the same level of sentience and awareness), with some condescending snark.”
Duly noted.
Somebody in the WA ALP must be kicking themselves for that 3rd seat. I am sure Fatima Payman wasn’t expected to win – yet six years tenure coming up (assuming no DD). Payman and Jordan-Steele would have to be the youngest senators.
C@tmomma @ #264 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 2:50 pm
VP to Amy?
No Boerwar but “the poorest of the poor”, your words, are indigenous, living in sub-third-world conditions and the Nats barely regard them as human. But more generally your whole comment is stupid; the Nats don’t care about rural people indigenous or non-indigenous, they care about keeping Labor out of power, that’s why they’re in coalition with the Libs. Interesting tho you’ve seemed to move on from your other stupid idea that Labor and Libs could cooperate to keep the “extreme right” Nats out…
BK @ #220 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 12:26 pm
And they have aspirations to be the Government. 🙁
William, If Boerwar is allowed “blocker” can I bring back the Turtle?
So, depending on the way others vote on a particular issue, any or all of the following might have a BOP in the Senate: Liberals, Labor, Nationals, Greens, Lambie Party, Pocock or UAP.
Senator Payman, a welcome addition
Fatima Payman – Labor Candidate for Senate
About Fatima
My name is Fatima Payman and I’m an Australian Muslim with cultural roots from Afghanistan. The eldest daughter of four children, I was raised in the Northern suburbs of Perth.
Arriving as a refugee, my Dad worked hard to provide for me, my mum and my siblings. While he worked around the clock as a kitchen hand, a security guard and a taxi driver, Mum looked after us before starting her own small business of providing driving lessons.
Dad instilled in me the values of hard work and perseverance. I have seen his experience echoed in the lives of many of the workers I have met in my time as an organiser at United Workers Union.
In 2018 I lost my Dad to Leukemia. This was the turning point in my life that made me truly appreciate his struggles.
I’ve put my hand up to represent people like my Dad and other hard working Australians, striving to make ends meet and giving life their best shot. I am passionate about breaking down barriers for women and young people, and encouraging them to voice their opinions. I want to give back to the community that has given me so much.
I began volunteering by raising funds for Penny Appeal Australia while tutoring high school students. I joined the Edmund Rice Centre to help develop and upskill young community leaders. Since 2017, I have worked closely with WA Police to help them better understand the barriers faced by youth and culturally diverse communities.
This federal election I’ll be running as your Senate candidate because only an Albanese Labor Government will deliver for WA.
Gracious, the German Greens going back to coal – and being described as a centrist govt earlier – poor old Firefox will be having conniptions 🙂
Not to mention the upcoming Green/SNP coalition’s same-same neoliberal austerity mullering shortly to be unleashed on Scotland
To end extreme poverty in rural areas would mean investing huge money in actually Closing the Gap. My point is that the Nats probably would not be on board with that. Boerwar probably wasn’t even thinking about the Gap when he mentioned “the poorest of the poor” due to unconscious bias. Clearly he regards the third-world living conditions of indigenous Australians as a “Greens issue” and thinks that rural poverty can be addressed without giving it any regard.
Rex
What’s the problem with an open class for trans athletics?
Ray (UK) @ #278 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 3:28 pm
I’ve read a few Steampunk novels. I thought they were intended to be just amusing fiction. Who knew we would end up living in a Steampolitik era? 🙁
The diversity of the Labor team is just fantastic….the stale old members of the LNP look like dinosaurs from another era by comparison.
Watermelon
I am not sure why you seek to demonstrate repeatedly that you have NFI about rural poverty.
It does not matter whether the Nats care about their constituents. The Greens don’t, so why should the Nats? The Greens policies would absolutely smash whole rural and regional economies. Could not give a flying fuck.
What matters is whether the Nats can see some political gain out of dealing themselves into government outcomes over the next three years. There would be zero skin off Labor’s nose if it managed a deal on specific programs with the Nats.
After all, when he is not threatening, demanding, demeaning and criticizing Labor, Bandt is demanding friendly, collaborative and constructive negotiations with Labor.
The Nats are called rural socialists for a reason.
As noted above, watch this space.
Torchbearer says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:33 pm
The diversity of the Labor team is just fantastic….the stale old members of the LNP look like dinosaurs from another era by comparison.
_____________________
The average age of cabinet is 54. Not exactly diverse either.
Some oncers off the back of a huge swing in WA – doesn’t really prove the diversity point.
Ray (UK)
The German Greens are doing coal and the Finnish Greens are doing nuclear.
The Australian Greens want to do scorched earth.
Re Bragg:
Alice Rolls is the Unley-based lawyer.
Rick Sarre lives in the Dunstan electorate.
Unley and Dunstan both adjoin Bragg.
Re Sturt:
Sturt is now the second most marginal Liberal electorate in the land. It won’t be next time. It will revert to safe Liberal.
Labor was too slow to realise the potential at hand in the afterglow of the Malinauskus victory. It did too little too late. Victory in Sturt slipped away by a handful of votes. Next election Labor will waste squillions to no avail. Sturt is a chance for Labor just once in a generation. An opportunity lost.
A little trivia re Dan Jarvis by the way
When I briefly lived in Nottingham in the early 1980’s (just up the road from Trent Bridge btw 🙂 Dan was a pupil at the Primary School just across the road
Watermelon
Keep digging, pal.
I have lived in rural (majority non-Indigenous) and remote Indigenous communities for decades.
As noted above, you have NFI about the reality of rural poverty.
The Greens’ big talking point this election, BTW, was how Indigenous people around Australia had somehow or other made a big mistake with the Statement from the Heart. Fortunately the Greens, through some sort of consultation process, have found a way of making sure that the Greens’ Bwana Element have righted this historic wrong. This puts them up their necks with the Wreckers, Snarkers and Blockers who have spent the last several years trying to destroy the Statement from the Heart.
All of which deflects from my point which was perhaps your intention all along.
Labor should consult with, and seek the support of, the Nats when it comes to program which seek to alleviate rural poverty.
Poll: Who wants Labor doing deals with the corrupt Nats ..?
Only the Liberals could have Jim Molan on their senate ticket.
Smart young women like Fatima Payman wouldn’t even bother to join the party much less seek election.
I suspect I know who has more to offer over the next six years.
Poll: Who wants the greens blocking ALP legislation with the corrupt Nats?
Speaking of diversity, how is Lib and Nat female representation going?
Gangbusters? Not a quota girl in sight, I bet.
What is worthy of note is just how superior in quality the Lib male MPs are when compared with their inferior female MPs.
LVT
So a bit too young then for leadership position ?
https://fortune.com/2022/05/24/youngest-ceos-fortune-500-zuckerberg-coinbase-compass-meta/
So, don’t worry about getting Barnaby in the FICAC dock, let’s get him in the room with Wong and Albo formulating legislation.
‘Rossmcg says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:45 pm
Only the Liberals could have Jim Molan on their senate ticket.
Smart young women like Fatima Payman wouldn’t even bother to join the party much less seek election.
I suspect I know who has more to offer over the next six years.’
————————————————
I have no idea whether this is true but there was a bit of gossip that Molan would get on the ticket and then resign sometime in his term, graciously making a space available for the next generation. He is apparently quite ill.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:36 pm
Torchbearer says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:33 pm
The diversity of the Labor team is just fantastic….the stale old members of the LNP look like dinosaurs from another era by comparison.
_____________________
“The average age of cabinet is 54. Not exactly diverse either.
Some oncers off the back of a huge swing in WA – doesn’t really prove the diversity point.”
Surely every member is a oncer once? Could be the start of regular re-elections. And given that age is only one element of many, it hardly disqualifies the diversity claim. They certainly are unquestionably far more diverse than the Coalition.
wonder when albanese will anowse who will be speaker when you compare labors cabenit v liberal front bench its the strongist cabenit perhaps in a long time no surpise imo that marles and wong are the strongist performers so far thats whiy the liberals targited them a lot in campaign wong helped stop china in pacifick and marles meeting molin is under used his defence background yet his on the back bench well was not listind to any way
poroti says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:46 pm
LVT
The average age of cabinet is 54
So a bit too young then for leadership position ?
The average CEO of a Fortune 500 company is about 57 years old.
https://fortune.com/2022/05/24/youngest-ceos-fortune-500-zuckerberg-coinbase-compass-meta/
___________________
Albo turns 60 later this year. Skews old.
Boerwar says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:17 pm
Uh huh.
The only rural poor are Indigenous. You can sort of see right there why the Greens’ national vote barely got past 12%.
_________________________________________________________
All the same Boerwar, we have to congratulate the Greens on increasing their vote from the last election, to a record high, if I’m not mistaken. The Greens also, more to the point, won four seats in the lower house and increased their Senate representation to 12, giving them the balance of legislative power.
I’ve said previously the Greens could not seriously consider themselves contenders for big third party status until they made substantial gains in the House of Reps. Well, they have.
If the Greens retain those seats and gain more at subsequent elections, Labor may well have to consider some type of power-sharing arrangements into the future. That would also mean, of course, that the Greens would have to consider legislation and governance in a more serious way than they did back in 2010.
Rex Douglas @ #291 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 1:43 pm
Rex,
If it’s good policy, who gives a shit who votes for it.