Despite the polls not having failed as such, in that they uniformly picked the right winner, it seems we’re having another post-election voting intention polling drought just like we did in 2019. This is unfortunate from my perspective, as it would be interesting to compare Labor’s strength during its honeymoon period with that of newly elected governments past. It also means I have to work harder on material for regular open thread posts. Here’s what I’ve got this time:
• The Reuters Institute last week published its international Digital News Report 2022, the Australian segment of which was conducted by the University of Canberra, which asked questions on media consumption and trust. Respondents were asked to rank their trust in various media brands on a scale of one to ten. Typically for such surveys, this found the highest level of trust in public broadcasters, with ABC News ranking first and SBS News ranking second; television networks and broadsheet newspapers in the middle; and tabloid newspapers, specifically the Herald Sun and the Daily Telegraph, ranking last. The survey was conducted online in January and February from a sample of 2038.
• In an address to the National Press Club last week, Labor national secretary Paul Erickson dated a shift in voter sentiment in Labor’s favour from the announcement of the Solomon Islands’ pact with China on April 1. Erickson said voters were struck by the contrast between the Coalition’s “immature” warmongering rhetoric and attempts to associate Labor with the Chinese Communist Party and Labor’s promise to “restore Australia’s place as the partner of choice” for Pacific Islands countries. He further noted that the rot set in for Scott Morrison amid COVID outbreaks in mid-2021, when Labor internal polling showed his net competence score fall by 14 points in two weeks over late June and early July. The Coalition was also damaged by cabinet ministers’ partisan attacks on state governments in Western Australia and Victoria, and it was rated lower by voters on housing and wages.
• Saturday’s Financial Review reported on the Australian Electoral Commission’s efforts to confront online disinformation about the election process head on, through the work of its election integrity assurance taskforce and a media unit that abandoned bureaucratic formality in engaging with social media on social media’s terms. Electoral commissioner Tom Rogers claimed they had a “70 to 80 per cent success rate in changing minds”, and that Twitter had been “a bit self-correcting as a result”: “Someone would say something and you’d see people say, ‘hang on, that doesn’t sound right, I heard the AEC say this or that’”.
• Tom Rogers also foreshadows possible changes to electoral laws to allow for faster counting of postal votes after election day by streamlining the existing process whereby ballots are sorted at a central location and then sent to the voter’s electorate before they are counted.
• Nominations for the South Australian state by-election for Bragg on July 2 closed on Thursday, drawing a field of six candidates who are listed on my by-election guide.
Other recent posts on the site:
• A post on the Queensland Senate result, which was confirmed on Thursday. The buttons will be pressed today on the results for New South Wales at 9:30am and, most interestingly, Victoria at 10am. That will just leave Western Australia – the post just linked to considers at length the remote possibility that Labor might not win a third seat, as is being generally assumed.
• Courtesy of Adrian Beaumont, a preview and live commentary of France’s legislative elections, plus news on British by-elections and American opinion polling.
• A post on Saturday’s Callide state by-election in Queensland, a safe conservative seat which the Liberal National Party has retained with a swing in its favour of 6.5% against Labor.
The UAP has replaced as Party Leader its ex-furniture salesman, Craig Kelly, with a real estate agent – Deej Babet.
Looks like an upgrade to me!
His political views…
Beyond arguing that the election was going to be fraudulent, Babet promoted the same conspiracy theory that the World Economic Forum is carrying out a globalist takeover of the country’s sovereignty. Soon after the election was called for Labor, he posted on his account: “I would like to congratulate the prime minister of Australia on an excellent campaign. Well done Klaus Schwab.”
Despite his dislike for the man responsible for creating the “billionaire circus” at Davos, Babet is a fanboy of other billionaires. At a rally earlier this month he boasted about meeting Palmer a handful of times and defended him online against reports he hadn’t paid his staff. Babet also tweeted glowingly about Elon Musk and was stoked about his proposed takeover of Twitter.
He also spoke at rallies and tweeted about ending Australia’s “digital ID legislation”, another fear-mongering UAP party promise that posits that a real government scheme is actually an attempt to implement China’s social credit system here.
While showing a disdain for all major parties, Babet particularly dislikes those with left politics. He called the Greens ideology “cancerous”, spoke disparagingly of “hardcore communists” on Twitter, shared a video claiming that drinking blood is a new trend on “the left”, and criticised Labor’s Dan Andrews for his handling of the pandemic.
https://www.crikey.com.au/2022/06/20/meet-ralph-babet-clive-palmer-acolyte-and-maybe-victorias-newest-senator/
UAP?
Babet, who lives in the electorate of Bruce which centres around the south-eastern suburb of Dandenong, was born in Mauritius, according to company records.
Is that a dual citizenship rout for Kelly to enter Senate?
Politics is the art of the possible.
The Greens are about the art of the impossible. Bandt WILL save the planet. Bandt WILL stop extinctions by 2030. And so on and so forth. Intellectually corrupt in an of themselves and ethically corrupt when the intention is to bamboozle the young, the naive and the idealistic. Sad, really.
Should Labor do a deal with the ethically corrupted Greens or the ethically corrupted Nats?
Choices, choices, choices.
The Nats and the Greens are same old same old.
Molans argument along with sheridon australian is that we have to invest moor on our own defence and not constantly reliy on us and uk as there powers in decline morrison respondid buy relying on them moor then ever with aucuss if molan was going to be sidelind perhaps his iraq warmay not help they minds well of stuck with mackinerney
Cronus says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:48 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:36 pm
Torchbearer says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:33 pm
The diversity of the Labor team is just fantastic….the stale old members of the LNP look like dinosaurs from another era by comparison.
_____________________
“The average age of cabinet is 54. Not exactly diverse either.
Some oncers off the back of a huge swing in WA – doesn’t really prove the diversity point.”
Surely every member is a oncer once? Could be the start of regular re-elections. And given that age is only one element of many, it hardly disqualifies the diversity claim. They certainly are unquestionably far more diverse than the Coalition.
______________________
The Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet are overwhelmingly Anglo with a few exceptions. Not exactly diverse.
Boerwar says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:46 pm
“Speaking of diversity, how is Lib and Nat female representation going?
Gangbusters? Not a quota girl in sight, I bet.
What is worthy of note is just how superior in quality the Lib male MPs are when compared with their inferior female MPs.”
Which reminds me, as a woman, has Susan Ley yet identified the problems most other women had with Morrison and the Coalition yet? Shouldn’t be that hard.
Of course she begins with a disadvantage, she has after all stated that Morrison wasn’t the problem, it was all about covid. With such pathetic judgement, it may take her years yet to discover the problems women have with the Coalition.
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:51 pm
Cronus says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:48 pm
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:36 pm
Torchbearer says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:33 pm
The diversity of the Labor team is just fantastic….the stale old members of the LNP look like dinosaurs from another era by comparison.
_____________________
“The average age of cabinet is 54. Not exactly diverse either.
Some oncers off the back of a huge swing in WA – doesn’t really prove the diversity point.”
Surely every member is a oncer once? Could be the start of regular re-elections. And given that age is only one element of many, it hardly disqualifies the diversity claim. They certainly are unquestionably far more diverse than the Coalition.
______________________
“The Cabinet and Shadow Cabinet are overwhelmingly Anglo with a few exceptions. Not exactly diverse.”
Yet they are more diverse than the Coalition are they not, factually (think gender, ethnicity and religion just for a start)?
Boerwar
I have read also that Molan had health issues.
If he bows out I would buy tickets for the shitfight in the NSW liberals when the factions have to choose his replacement.
Cronus read it for yourself about the “whiteness” of parliament:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-61432762
“Is that a dual citizenship rout for Kelly to enter Senate?”
Wrong state, I’d have thought. Kelly wouldn’t know how to get from Flinders St Station to Young and Jacksons.
skin color has nothing to do with diversity.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #302 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 3:49 pm
If the Nationals are supporting it (while other blocs oppose), that’s a strong suggestion that it’s not “good policy”.
Or at least that “better policy” is not far down the road, at the point where some other bloc adds their support and makes whatever the Nationals think irrelevant.
Not a great strategy to seek to pass policy only with the support of the people who just lost government.
sprocket_ at 3:49 pm
Couldn’t they find a used car salesman ?
‘Sir Henry Parkes says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:49 pm
Boerwar says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:17 pm
Uh huh.
The only rural poor are Indigenous. You can sort of see right there why the Greens’ national vote barely got past 12%.
_________________________________________________________
All the same Boerwar, we have to congratulate the Greens on increasing their vote from the last election, to a record high, if I’m not mistaken. The Greens also, more to the point, won four seats in the lower house and increased their Senate representation to 12, giving them the balance of legislative power.
I’ve said previously the Greens could not seriously consider themselves contenders for big third party status until they made substantial gains in the House of Reps. Well, they have.
If the Greens retain those seats and gain more at subsequent elections, Labor may well have to consider some type of power-sharing arrangements into the future. That would also mean, of course, that the Greens would have to consider legislation and governance in a more serious way than they did back in 2010.’
=========================
The Greens were rejected by 88% of all primary votes. After 32 years of putting their people and their policies out there, they have been smashed by the electorate. This is no accident, BTW. The vast majority of Australians fear and loathe what the Greens stand for. They don’t want a half-arsed ADF. They don’t want large swathes of the rural economy trashed. They KNOW that Bandt is lying when he says he WILL save the planet.
They have dug a historic niche hole for themselves. They are like ant lions. They keep burrowing, keep throwing up sand and keep trying to ambush their hapless victims. Like their corrupt mates in the Senate, they can, and will, block.
As noted previously, Albanese has learned that one of the things to avoid like the plague is to set up ten years of the Greens blaming Labor for anything and everything – preferably on murky and arcane points of Greens policy perfection.
So he has gone to the electorate with a defined set of policies. They are not open-ended. The Greens, with their 12%, will have to deal with a whole series of take it or leave it propositions based on what Labor has specifically promised to do.
The Greens will ALSO then have to deal with the electoral consequences.
‘Sohar says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:57 pm
“Is that a dual citizenship rout for Kelly to enter Senate?”
Wrong state, I’d have thought. Kelly wouldn’t know how to get from Flinders St Station to Young and Jacksons.’
——————-
LOL. Getting there is not the problem. OTOH, getting back to the station after a good session at Y&Js….
Carrie Johnson and the curious case of the vanishing Times story
Did Rupert pull this expose on Boris & Carrie?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/19/carrie-johnson-and-the-curious-case-of-the-vanishing-times-story
Edit.. Alastair Campbell, the former No 10 director of communications under Tony Blair, tweeted on Sunday that the disappearance of the story appeared to be “further evidence that much of our media is essentially an extension of the press office of a liar and a crook”. He also said that the Times owner, Rupert Murdoch, had “done so much damage to journalism”.
Boerwar says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:24 pm
I have no doubt at all that the Nats would support the Labor Government’s efforts to help people in rural and remote regions.
___________________________________________________________
Do you? You have more faith in the Nats than I do. Why didn’t the Nats help people in the remote regions being affected by climate change? In all their years in coalition government, the Nationals cheered on the fossil fuels industries. Going further back, why didn’t they block the privatisation of Telstra, despite the increased costs of telecommunications to country people.
I would not rely on the Nats for anything, particularly if I were living in a rural area.
The WA Nats, maybe.
The rest of the country… no. Of course not. The Nats are part of the Coalition. They don’t care about poor people, black or white, rural or urban. They hate them. They want them on basics cards or picking fruit on slave wages. The Nats care about large landowners. They aren’t called “rural socialists” because they care about the rural poor (and especially not “the poorest of the poor”) but because they support public expenditure on supporting rural landowners.
SHP
The question is whether the Nats see political advantage in bringing home some bacon even while in opposition. If they don’t, they won’t. But what if they do?
a r @ #315 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 1:58 pm
I’m sorry, but that’s just rubbish.
It’s difficult to think of a situation where it might occur, but as a Government you if you propose some legislation, you’re not going to give a shit who votes for it if it gets up.
You need that budget handed down asap boerwar – will help you to focus away from these utopian concepts, labor/liberal pref swaps, dealing with the nats etc.
Iron ore price
One year ago: $214
Now: $125
Don Key @ #171 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 1:28 pm
Thank you. Interesting read, with a few things to follow up. (And I subscribed to the blog on the strength of that article.)
Some quotes that I noticed in particular:
I was nodding along until the last one. 😉
Holdenhillbilly says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 4:06 pm
Iron ore price
One year ago: $214
Now: $125
___________________
The budget assumed $77.50 per tonne. So presumably some upside for Dr Chalmers to announce in October?
A particular subset of rural poverty is poor rural women.
I am sure that the Nat’s Deputy Leader would know all about this problem.
Drug addition, including alcoholism, is a pressing strand in much rural poverty.
It is not difficult to see the Nats and Labor working together on some of these issues.
Both Ley and Perrin, BTW, would have much rural poverty in their (local and state electorates).
Dan Andrews “Chris Bowen in one meeting has done more to secure our energy future than the previous government did in 9 years”
https://twitter.com/SquizzSTK/status/1538706661937774592
Pi says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 4:10 pm
Dan Andrews “Chris Bowen in one meeting has done more to secure our energy future than the previous government did in 9 years”
https://twitter.com/SquizzSTK/status/1538706661937774592
_____________________
An objective source you’ve cited.
It is literally a one minute video of Daniel Andrews, Premiere of Victoria. And the quote is of the last words he spoke in that video.
Oh dearie me.
I forgot.
Labor is supposed to instantly forget that the Greens spent nine years explaining to everyone how Labor and the corrupt Liberals and the corrupt Nationals are same old same old.
So it is now an absolute MUST that Labor works in a friendly and constructive manner with the Greens and NOT with the corrupt Liberals and Nationals that Labor was the same old same old with.
Got it.
Pi @ #327 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 4:10 pm
That’s a pretty low bar, wouldn’t you agree?
”
sprocket_says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:23 pm
So ALP+Greens have an absolute block on any motion.
ALP 26, Greens 12 = 38 of 76 Senators
With +1 of any one of the following, an absolute majority to pass any motion.
Pocock
Lambie x 2
PHoN x2
UAP x1
The Coalition has to get every single one of them to vote No to negative the motion.
Unless of course the Greens vote with the coalition
”
Do we have a bet whether Greens will vote with LNP wrt ALP Climate change legislation?
I say Greens will do that. So let us take some options of various bludgers.
Lars Von Trier @ #326 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 4:08 pm
Given the inflation rate and full employment, surely Chalmers will raise the rate for the starving and destitute remaining on Jobseeker.
Jan 6 @ #272 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 3:26 pm
Yeah. I don’t think the US is up for a female POTUS yet still and that includes Kamala Harris. So it has to be a guy. Maybe a gay guy is who the Dems need to unify all the disparate wings of the party. Plus Amy could be the VP running mate who appeals to educated Women and the Mid West? The Democrats could do worse.
Rex Douglas @ #333 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 4:16 pm
If there’s any left by October. The worker shortage is severe.
@Ven
Based on what I am seeing.
Labor will make policy changes that don’t require parliamentary approval leading to no bill for anyone to vote on.
”
Ray (UK)says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 3:28 pm
Gracious, the German Greens going back to coal – and being described as a centrist govt earlier – poor old Firefox will be having conniptions
Not to mention the upcoming Green/SNP coalition’s same-same neoliberal austerity mullering shortly to be unleashed on Scotland
”
I don’t know about ‘Conniptions’
How about back flip with quadruple somersault? 🙂
We read endlessly how the German Greens are party to watch in Europe so on and so forth.
FF was posting all about German Greens for a number of days.
Ven @ #332 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 4:15 pm
I vote that The Greens block and vote with the Coalition. All care and no responsibility is their motto.
Ven
It is obviously in the interests of the Greens to make noise. My suggestions for how they will make noise:
1. Join with Dutton and Littleproud to send any legislation arriving in the Senate off to a Senate committee.
2. Ensure that the committee process takes a long time and maximizes noise.
3. Ensure that the committee report includes recommendations that are contrary to Labor’s election commitments.
4. Seek to amend the legislation and send it back to the House.
5. When the amendments are knocked back in the House and the original legislation goes back to the Senate announce that the Greens have been forced to pass the legislation but that it is not good enough.
Rinse and repeat for all Labor legislation.
My guess is that this process could add 3 months to the passage time of any legislation without altering it one single bit. This would suit the Blockers, the Wreckers and the Snarkers.
Late Riser @ #324 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 4:08 pm
It makes sense provided you also understand that what Murdoch produces is not “journalism”.
I only just learned that Ranjana Srivastava who has written extensively for the Guardian on health matters, as a practising oncologist, is running for preselection for the Libs in the Upper House in Victoria and previously tried (and got nowhere) to get preselected for the seat of Casey in the Federal election. Could knock me down with a feather, would never have picked it, and can’t imagine how she reconciles her views on refugees, the underprivileged and the health system generally with running for office under Matthew Guy and the Covid Deniers Club.
Speaking of ‘open’ swimming: there is no such swimming stroke as ‘freestyle.’
During ‘freestyle’ races, swimmers are entitled to use any stroke they wish. The fastest stroke, therefore the one chosen, turns out to be ‘Australian Crawl.’ Pause for national chest-thumping as inventors of the fastest swimming technique of them all! Further pause for someone to demonstrate a Kiwi probably invented it…
I want an Olympic ‘Australian Crawl’ event. Backed by the music of…Australian Crawl!
@Snappy Tom
They are not allowed to use the other styles. At least in Olympic events
Post up on the Senate results:
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/06/20/senate-results-finalised/
Boerwar @ #340 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 4:23 pm
The defenders of the establishment always prefer less democratic processes and oversight.
LVT is quite right.
While doing far better than the Coalition, there are significant gaps in diversity in the Federal Labor ministry.
Non-anglophones are significantly under-represented.
Some occupation groups are significantly under-represented.
Some regions are significantly under-represented.
Some genders may be significantly under-represented.
Boerwar says:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 4:05 pm
SHP
The question is whether the Nats see political advantage in bringing home some bacon even while in opposition. If they don’t, they won’t. But what if they do?
_________________________________________________________
If the Nats, or the Libs, or even One Nation, for some reason choose to support progressive legislation, I won’t quibble. But I don’t think the Labor government will have to court them for such a purpose.
The reality is that Labor will work with the Greens to get progressive legislation through the Senate, with the likely assistance of Senator Pocock or Jacqui Lambie. Labor does not need the agreement of its opponents.
In any case, the Coalition parties would rather make mischief by frustrating worthwhile Labor initiatives than helping others.
As for fears expressed here that the Greens might hold up Labor’s climate action legislation, such moves would see them lose much support at the next election. I have hopes that Bandt is a more mature leader than his predecessors.
Lars Von Trier @ #264 Monday, June 20th, 2022 – 3:49 pm
That dead cat has maggots in it.
Rex
True. Which is exactly why Greens policy processes are held in camera.
”
Catprogsays:
Monday, June 20, 2022 at 4:20 pm
@Ven
Based on what I am seeing.
Labor will make policy changes that don’t require parliamentary approval leading to no bill for anyone to vote on.
”
I get it. PM said that the government will introduce the legislation what they promised for Parliament to consider and ratify what they promised to the world. If the Parliament passes the bill that is great otherwise Government will implement the changes without legislation.
Today Bandt was having Conniptions in Press Conference saying that the government is introducing the legislation with a attitude of take it or leave it. 🙂