Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

The first published voting intention poll since the election credits both major parties with higher primary votes than they recorded last month, for one reason or another.

Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.

The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.

This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,923 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Another anti renewables diatribe from Chris Uhlmann.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/energy-spin-can-be-powerful-but-rhetoric-won-t-keep-the-lights-on-20220621-p5av9w.html

    Has he not looked around and seen that coal fired power plants are closing themselves down due being unviable and unable to secure financial backing? There will come a time when the vast majority of our electricity is supplied from renewable sources. Trying to deny this is itself spin and rhetoric.

  2. I’m just waiting out the clock on Chris Uhlmann, quite frankly. The end of his tenure at Channel 9 can’t come soon enough.

  3. Once again the Australian manipulates the statement of the Reserve Bank boss with click baits headlines today “Wages hikes risk economy”. Read the text below the headline and again the headline has no substance. They trot our people to claim wage increases are bad, government investment in the business sector is good and unions are taking a wrecking ball to the economy by demanding a 5.% wage hike for everyone. Elsewhere in the same dead tree version are claims that the Labor party are engaging in ” reckless spending” that will drive up interest rates and inflation.. blah blah blah. Lessons learnt from the election: 0

  4. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 6:30 am
    “I’m just waiting out the clock on Chris Uhlmann, quite frankly. The end of his tenure at Channel 9 can’t come soon enough.”

    He insists on defending the indefensible, just can’t help himself, unprofessional and has simply been an apologist rather than a journalist for the past several years.

  5. Cronus @ #NaN Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 6:47 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 6:30 am
    “I’m just waiting out the clock on Chris Uhlmann, quite frankly. The end of his tenure at Channel 9 can’t come soon enough.”

    He insists on defending the indefensible, just can’t help himself, unprofessional and has simply been an apologist rather than a journalist for the past several years.

    It’s like he believes he has oracle status. Like in the old days of Laurie Oakes. However, what he doesn’t seem to realise is that we have ways of finding out the truth.

  6. Sandman

    The Murdochracy always seem to revert to type. They are uncomprehending of changed paradigms, just like the Coalition.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    David Crowe reports that Industry Minister Ed Husic has accused the country’s major gas producers of failing to deliver enough fuel to manufacturing companies that are desperate for affordable energy, saying the big exporters will face drastic federal action if they do not ease the winter energy crisis.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/minister-puts-gas-exporters-on-notice-20220621-p5avgn.html
    Paul Bongiorno writes that Peter Dutton still fighting the last election suits Labor. He says the unequivocal message voters sent the Coalition at the election is completely lost on new Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, leading to confused and extremely negative performances in the media.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/06/21/paul-bongiorno-peter-dutton/
    Ross Gittins explains why interest rates are going up, and won’t be coming down.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-interest-rates-are-going-up-and-won-t-be-coming-down-20220621-p5av9t.html
    Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has sought to put a lid on wages growth of about 3.5 per cent and warned regular pay rises of 4 to 5 per cent risked entrenching higher inflation, writes Ronald Mizen.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/rba-puts-3-5pc-lid-on-wages-20220621-p5avg4
    Alexandra Smith and Jordan Baker tell us all about the NSW budget presented yesterday.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-government-promises-27-billion-spending-spree-20220620-p5av6l.html
    The SMH editorial is pleased that NSW has finally seen the light on female workforce participation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-finally-sees-the-light-on-female-workforce-participation-20220621-p5avib.html
    Jennifer Hewett writes that the NSW Liberals want to present a very different image to Scott Morrison and Peter Dutton. A big spending budget aimed at helping families is the down payment on the election next March, she says.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/nsw-liberals-determined-to-avoid-the-fate-of-their-federal-colleagues-20220621-p5avg5
    Matt Wade believes that the budget sets NSW for a surge of economic growth, but the risks are ‘elevated’.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-set-for-surge-of-economic-growth-but-risks-are-elevated-20220621-p5avgt.html
    Liberal supporter Adam Cass declares that Zed’s dead, and the hangers-on will only run the Canberra Liberals into the ground. It’s quite an impassioned spit!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7788006/zeds-dead-hangers-on-will-only-run-the-canberra-liberals-into-the-ground/?cs=14329
    A Coalition member was made to cut more than $430 million from the Department of Veterans’ Affairs to offset money allocated in the budget, as the department struggled under a 50,000-strong compensation claims backlog. Lucy Ward reports that former veterans’ affairs minister Andrew Gee, who held the portfolio from July 2021 to May, told the Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide that there was a clear link between the claims backlog and suicide rates within the defence community.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/veteran-affairs-lost-430m-after-former-minister-forced-to-make-cuts-20220621-p5ava2.html
    NSW Labor will move to block former deputy premier John Barilaro taking up a plum New York trade posting until a parliamentary inquiry into his appointment is completed.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-moves-to-block-barilaro-appointment-to-new-york-role-20220621-p5avja.html
    Sarah Martin and Katherine Murphy writes that Liberal MPs are urging Peter Dutton to let the party room decide a new position on climate change policy in the wake of the Coalition’s devastating election loss, with calls for the conservatives to take more ambitious emission reduction targets to the next election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/22/liberal-mps-say-peter-dutton-should-let-party-room-decide-new-climate-position
    But Phil Coorey tells us that Peter Dutton has downplayed the concerns of moderate MPs in his ranks over climate change and reiterated that the Coalition does not support legislating emission reductions targets.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/dutton-downplays-internal-dissent-over-emission-targets-20220621-p5avez
    Here goes the broken record Chris Uhlmann again. He says the energy spin can be powerful, but rhetoric won’t keep the lights on.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/energy-spin-can-be-powerful-but-rhetoric-won-t-keep-the-lights-on-20220621-p5av9w.html
    The unprecedented shutdown of Australia’s east coast electricity market could be lifted by as early as tonight if the nation’s major power generators demonstrate they can offer enough supplies to avert shortfalls during a 24-hour monitoring regime.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/extraordinary-electricity-market-shutdown-may-be-lifted-by-wednesday-night-20220621-p5avgs.html
    The national electricity market is a failed 1990s experiment. It’s time the grid returned to public hands, declares John Quiggin.
    https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands-185418
    As Australians pay the price for decades of poor energy planning, the two single greatest beneficiaries of high electricity prices are Hong Kong billionaires Michael Kadoorie and Li Ka-Shing. Callum Foote reports on two of the big winners from Australia’s electricity crisis.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/theyre-not-shivering-in-honkers-australians-electricity-pain-is-two-billionaires-gain/
    In part 3 of his review of his outlook on living standards, Michael Keating discusses how best to respond to the two principal drivers of the increased cost of living – fuel and energy costs and housing costs.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-outlook-for-living-standards-part-3/
    John Lord argues why it is only Labor that can implement the much-needed change we require.
    https://theaimn.com/only-labor-can-implement-the-much-needed-change-we-need/
    A scornful Michael Pascoe tells us all about the Ponzi scheme that is cryptocurrency.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2022/06/22/michael-pascoe-cryptocurrencies-government-failure/
    China is desperately attempting to stimulate an economy weakened by its zero tolerance approach to outbreaks of COVID-19. But tumbling iron ore prices send a worrying signal, writes Stephen Bartholomeusz.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-is-trying-to-revive-its-economy-we-just-got-a-sign-it-is-not-going-to-plan-20220621-p5avbz.html
    A high court decision striking down the home affairs minister’s power to cancel citizenship of dual nationals suspected of terrorist activities could also call into question the legality of orders to ban citizens from re-entering Australia, explains Paul Karp.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/22/power-to-ban-citizens-from-re-entering-australia-questioned-after-high-court-decision-on-dual-nationals
    The federal government’s pursuit of quiet diplomacy to halt the extradition of Julian Assange to the US has been backed by Australia’s former US ambassador, Joe Hockey.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/government-right-to-avoid-megaphone-diplomacy-on-assange-joe-hockey-says-20220621-p5avdk.html
    Scott Morrison’s pandemic pledge to return Australians stranded overseas by Christmas 2020 caught officials off-guard, with an audit revealing the then prime minister announced the plan before it was discussed within government. Daniel Hurst tells us that a new report by the Australian National Audit Office paints a picture of how the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade attempted to respond to the rapidly unfolding pandemic crisis, but finds major gaps in its record-keeping.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/21/scott-morrisons-2020-home-by-christmas-pledge-to-stranded-australians-made-before-discussion-within-government-report-finds
    Given current skill shortages and how gummed up the visa processing system has become, the new Government will need a focussed strategy on what needs to be fixed first, writes Abul Rizvi.
    https://johnmenadue.com/tripartite-bargain-on-immigration-policy/
    The chief executive of Australia’s largest grains company Graincorp has warned that global supply chain disruptions could linger for years.
    https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/grains-boss-warns-ukraine-disruption-to-last-2-3-years-tips-bumper-crop-20220621-p5avfn.html
    The Ukranians seem to like our Bushmasters very much.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/like-a-house-on-wheels-australia-s-bushmasters-prove-their-mettle-on-the-front-line-20220621-p5av96.html
    Those in favour of a strong and effective integrity commission, including the retired judges who have done so much to outline the need, should be very suspicious of the central role being accorded the Attorney-General’s department, writes Jack Waterford who says the department has not been a recent friend of real law reform.
    https://johnmenadue.com/attorney-generals-not-friend-of-real-law-reform/
    Lisa Wilkinson was warned four days before the Logies she could set back the trial of the man accused of raping former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins by speaking at the TV awards night and generating extra publicity over the case, the ACT Supreme Court has heard.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/lisa-wilkinson-warned-over-brittany-higgins-speech-at-logies/news-story/9678f7aafaaf4ce1921b678967f295ee
    The former Crown chairman never did return to Sydney to appear at the Bergin casino inquiry, but that hasn’t stopped him selling his Sydney home for $35 million., writes Lucy Macken.
    https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/ex-crown-boss-rob-rankin-sells-woollahra-trophy-home-for-35-million-20220621-p5avbv.html
    The King’s School has defended a controversial trip by its headmaster and his wife to the Royal Henley Regatta, saying it was standard practice among independent schools to fly principals overseas with their spouse and traditional for the King’s principal to travel business class. Oh, that’s alright then.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/kings-school-defends-regatta-trip-says-business-class-trips-with-spouses-are-standard-20220621-p5avev.html
    A Texas Senate hearing was told yesterday by the Department of Public Safety Director that the law enforcement response to the Uvalde school shooting that killed 19 children and two teachers was “an abject failure” in which a commander put the lives of officers over those of the children.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/police-response-in-uvalde-shooting-was-abject-failure-official-tells-senate-hearing-20220622-p5avkl.html

    Cartoon Corner – for two days now, there are no SMAge cartons available.

    David Rowe

    Matt Golding

    Glen Le Lievre

    Mark Knight

    Peter Broelman

    Fiona Katauskas

    Spooner

    From the US








  8. Like I said, don’t they realise we can ascertain the truth of the matter? We don’t have to rely on the particular perspective of Murdoch and his minions anymore.

  9. C@T

    “ It’s like he believes he has oracle status. Like in the old days of Laurie Oakes. However, what he doesn’t seem to realise is that we have ways of finding out the truth.”

    So true, does he really think we don’t have actual expert sources to advise us rather than just his fallacious drivel?

  10. Thanks for the Dawn Patrol BK.

    “ Paul Bongiorno writes that Peter Dutton still fighting the last election suits Labor. He says the unequivocal message voters sent the Coalition at the election is completely lost on new Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, leading to confused and extremely negative performances in the media”

    It seems Paul Bongiorno is seeing the same thing as PBers re Dutton.

  11. ”The Murdochracy always seem to revert to type. They are uncomprehending of changed paradigms, just like the Coalition.”

    I suspect that they believe that the change is temporary, as do their political allies. They and Dutton are working to the Abbott playbook.

  12. With Labor needing the Greens and one extra to have a senate majority, I had a look at David Pocock and his policy platforms. You can get a good overview from his webpage.
    https://www.davidpocock.com.au/donate

    Climate change is definitely on top of his wish list. It would be safe to say he represents the ‘Teals’ agenda in the Senate; climate change, women’s rights, ICAC, affordable housing and an Indigenous voice in parliament are his main interests along with voluntary euthanasia. He rejects claims he is either a Green or a Teal in Independent disguise.

    Climate change was on top of the list. He told ABC radio: “Fossil fuels have served us well but they are not the future, and so we have to ensure that we have an orderly transition that actually looks after everyday Australians”.

    https://citynews.com.au/2022/challenge-for-pocock-is-to-build-trust-for-all-the-people/
    Alongside climate policy, ensuring a constitutionally-enshrined National Voice to Parliament would be a key focus for the Pocock
    “We’ve got the oldest living cultures in the world in Australia and it’s time we better engage,” he said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-17/former-wallaby-david-pocock-to-run-for-act-senate/100705718

    By the look of his policy agenda, it would be safe to tag him a progressive Independent who will support most of Labors progressive policy agendas items but he will be under extreme pressure from the Greens in the senate and the ‘Teals’ in the HOR to take a hard line on rejecting new coal and gas mining projects and a more radical approach to reducing carbon emissions. Interesting times ahead in the Senate.

  13. Climate change was on top of the list. He told ABC radio: “Fossil fuels have served us well but they are not the future, and so we have to ensure that we have an orderly transition that actually looks after everyday Australians”.

    And that is almost exactly what Ed Husic said to David Crowe today:

    “I know there are people that say gas has no role anymore, but, again, those supplies buy us time to be able to refine alternative technology and bring it up to speed as quickly as we can and at a cost that will satisfy industry.”

    Husic said the government was committed to action on climate change by reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050 and the previous government had done too little to shift Australia to renewable energy, making it difficult to achieve a rapid transition.

    “They treated energy like a political football, they didn’t focus practically on how to have alternative energy sources developed,” he said of the Coalition.

    “We are committed to net zero. We’re dead serious about that. But the technology has to be available in a way that can be used by manufacturers and at a cost that is nowhere near as big as what it is at the moment.

    “So gas is going to have to play a role. And remember, net zero does not mean all zero. There will be some form of energy generation that will rely on coal or gas in the immediate term and the medium to longer term.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/minister-puts-gas-exporters-on-notice-20220621-p5avgn.html

  14. Good call Cat. Looks like Bridget Archer is creating headaches for the Coalition again, saying she would be willing to cross the floor again on carbon emission targets and legislation but Dutton has stuck his head in the sand and said yeah nah, we won’t be changing our policy approach.

    BTW
    Yeah Nah, you won’t see me stripping off to do the Dark Mofo naked swim in Hobart. Did it once, never again. I am insane, but it took me a week to defrost after that dip.

  15. ccathryn campbell has attacked the anaos report on her department response to covid 19 wonder weather albanese will move her own ulhman seems like a suporter of the former government protending to be a jernalistt he had a go at sky news and 2gb foorplotting against turnbull claiming they were helping shortin winn

  16. At the risk of being provocative on Defence Distractions (me? Never!), I found that this Crikey article on the actual nature of Oz “Freedom of Navigation” exercises by Keene & Clinton Fernandes quite informative.

  17. “So gas is going to have to play a role. And remember, net zero does not mean all zero. There will be some form of energy generation that will rely on coal or gas in the immediate term and the medium to longer term.”
    ———————————
    Beyond lifespans of current generators? Is he leaving room for some new gas/coal PSs?

  18. I have just about finished watching the three hours of last night’s Jan 6 hearing.
    It was devastating.
    I want Trump to suffer badly.

  19. “Sandman says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 6:34 am
    Once again the Australian manipulates the statement of the Reserve Bank boss with click baits headlines today “Wages hikes risk economy”. Read the text below the headline and again the headline has no substance. They trot our people to claim wage increases are bad, government investment in the business sector is good and unions are taking a wrecking ball to the economy by demanding a 5.% wage hike for everyone. Elsewhere in the same dead tree version are claims that the Labor party are engaging in ” reckless spending” that will drive up interest rates and inflation.. blah blah blah. Lessons learnt from the election: 0”

    Yep, Murdoch and his mates in the Coalition are most welcome to delude themselves: “The defeat was just a little ‘bump in the road’ caused by Scomo… etc.”

    Good, that kind of delusion is exactly what the ALP needs to get even more voters on board at the next federal election!… In the meantime, let’s see how the Coalition performs at the coming Vic, Qld and NSW state elections. If the ALP retains power in Vic and Qld and wins in NSW, not even Murdoch would be able to hide the massive earthquake….

  20. rhwombat at 8:05 am
    Thank you for that article. This little bit in particular really puts it in a different light.

    But the United States has not ratified the convention — the only major maritime power to not do so. However, it says it will act in accordance with its provisions. And it established its EEZ within 200 nautical miles of its coast and also recognises the EEZ of other states.

    But it also says it has the right to conduct military and intelligence-collection activities within any country’s EEZ. China disagrees. It says it respects freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, but does not respect the right of foreign governments to conduct military and intelligence-collection activities within its EEZ.

  21. “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”…

    For the next 12 months or so, the only role of the federal election opinion polls will be to put pressure on Dutton, especially if he doesn’t win any of them during that period.

    The problem for the Liberals is: Who is the alternative leader?

  22. @Aaron: Campbell is gone for sure. Uhlmann is Christian right wing like his mate Tony Abbott and made his name permanently mud with his witless attacks on renewable energy. “pretending to be a journalist” is about right.

  23. BK says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 8:32 am
    “I have just about finished watching the three hours of last night’s Jan 6 hearing.
    It was devastating.
    I want Trump to suffer badly.”

    I too have been reading up this morning and watching excerpts of last night’s hearing. The facts speak for themselves and America’s credibility is further at stake if proper action is not taken against Trump. A failure to act now will only embolden him and those like him in the future. This increasingly appears to be a battle for America’s democratic soul.

  24. Alpo says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 8:42 am
    “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”…

    “For the next 12 months or so, the only role of the federal election opinion polls will be to put pressure on Dutton, especially if he doesn’t win any of them during that period.”

    Especially if they show preferred PM results.

  25. Jan 6 at 8:17 am

    Beyond lifespans of current generators? Is he leaving room for some new gas/coal PSs?

    All of the above and more, Ed had a veritable boogle of weasels.

  26. I don’t know who the alternate Leader for the Liberals is, but this is an ideal opportunity to take a punt on an unknown who the party sees as an up and coming talent.

    If such an unknown exists, of course.

  27. Okay Bludgers I’m off to begin my journey down to Sydney. It’s a beautiful day and I hope to see you all soonish! 🙂

  28. poroti says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 8:50 am
    Cronus at 8:46 am
    “Showing Herr Dutton the current PPM would probably contravene a clause in the Geneva Convention.”

    (Chuckling lots), agree entirely. I do wonder (albeit that it’s early days) what voter’s current opinions of his performance are. To me he doesn’t appear to be starring but I’m quiet biased (and perhaps over-invested being a Dickson constituent) on the topic of Dutton.

  29. C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 9:00 am
    “Okay Bludgers I’m off to begin my journey down to Sydney. It’s a beautiful day and I hope to see you all soonish! ”

    Have a soda water for me C@T and best wishes to all at the gathering.

  30. If you think there won’t be new gas power stations in oz as we shut off the coal, you might want to sit down, because I have some bad news for you. I ain’t expecting the gas proportion of our grid to go down at all over the next 10 years, and maybe not for the next 15. In 2035, I expect gas will be the only fossil fuel used in our grid. After that time, it too will taper off as renewables overwhelm those assets. They’ll get shut down because they’re too expensive to maintain.

  31. Perrott claiming he didn’t know how Barilaro got the $500,000 p.a. job?

    Premier Dominic Perrottet is going to face ongoing questions about the appointment. Asked a few minutes ago on RN Breakfast by Patricia Karvelas about Guardian Australia’s report, he did not exactly resolve the issue:

    (quote)I’ve spoken to the minister for investment [Stuart Ayres] in relation to getting some information in respect of the process and the details in relation to that. Once I’ve received those details, I’m more than happy to make them public.
    (Guardian updates at 8:07)

  32. BK @ #7 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 6:51 am

    The national electricity market is a failed 1990s experiment. It’s time the grid returned to public hands, declares John Quiggin.
    https://theconversation.com/the-national-electricity-market-is-a-failed-1990s-experiment-its-time-the-grid-returned-to-public-hands-185418

    Some of us have been saying this for years now. Australia’s energy market looks like a catastrophic failure, until you realize it was designed by and for the fossil fuel cartel, not consumers. It has been patched up many times now to make it look like it is addressing the problem of reducing emissions, but the reality is now clear for all to see. It is indeed time we dismantled it. Hopefully, before it succeeds in its latest ambition to subsidize and perpetuate the role of coal and gas.

    Labor has some very difficult decisions ahead. Let’s see if they are up to the task, or whether they will just continue to instead support a massive expansion in fossil fuel extraction.

  33. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Labor is looking like the “normal one” in politics now. Adam Bandt is charging further left with his flag antics while Dutton and Uhlman deserve each other on the far right.

    rhwombat says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 8:05 am
    “At the risk of being provocative on Defence Distractions (me? Never!), I found that this Crikey article on the actual nature of Oz “Freedom of Navigation” exercises by Keene & Clinton Fernandes quite informative.”

    Its not a bad article but leaves out a bit too. Navies (east, west and other) have been carrying out military exercises within the 200nm EEZ since the cold war. They are nothing new. EEZs have never carried the right to exclude other nations’ military ships.

    Instead it is the other way around. EEZs have only existed since 1982. Some nations have been gradually pushing to have their powers under EEZs increased over time, and this reflects the legal dispute the Crikey article referred to. Nevertheless, it remains the case that naval exclusion rights in EEZs do not exist under the current International Law of the Sea. There are lots of disputes over maritime boundaries; that does not mean the claimant nations positions ar reasonable. For example, see disputes listed under each nation entry here:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exclusive_economic_zone

  34. Thank you, BK.

    What that 53/47 tells us is that the triumphalism of the so-called progressives is over-cooked. A few percent 2pp change in the next election and we have PM Dutton. A few per cent change in the order of candidates when the preferencing count commences could see large changes in the numbers of seats.

    Labor promised not to introduce new taxes. Labor did not promise to halt new coal or gas projects. Labor promised a specific 2030 target.

  35. It is not nearly as complicated as people make out.

    The pattern of evidence is that, when it comes to observing international laws, Putin and Xi respect power.

  36. Arky says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 8:42 am
    @Aaron: Campbell is gone for sure. Uhlmann is Christian right wing like his mate Tony Abbott and made his name permanently mud with his witless attacks on renewable energy. “pretending to be a journalist” is about right.

    Uhlmann’s first sense of calling was to become a preacher, so he entered a seminary. Not liking that style, he simply moved to another evangelical genre – working in the media. He’s a wanna-be priest selling yet another reactionary catechism. I’ve seen or heard or read him 4 or 5 times in my life. Once was enough. He’s not a journalist or a reporter. He’s just another attention-seeking big head with a misplaced sense of judgment; a campaigner who hates the modern. He is a phobist.

  37. Yeah P1, but your understanding about any part of energy infrastructure is the kind of thing you read on the back of the door of a toilet stall. So there’s that.

  38. I recommend reading Antony Green’s Post-Election Pendulum.

    https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-post-federal-election-pendulum/

    It puts into context how such a “crushing defeat” of the LNP is not that crushing. They can come back with a relatively normal swing.

    The ALP are actually in a precarious situation which explains their caution around policy.

    Mind you, much of the analysis rides on the Teals and other independents failing to retain their seats.

  39. Boerwar

    A good summary, yes.

    I am not implying I think the USA never abuses power. Sometimes they do and I don’t defend it. Likewise Australia’s actions vs East Timor over gas and sea boundaries were not defensible (or legal in the case of the bugging).

    But on EEZs and freedom of navigation, I think USA and Australia are correct, both legally and ethically. No independent or impartial body has suggested otherwise.

    To illustrate the illegality of China’s position, it is even trying to claim territorial waters around the illegally seized reefs and islands in the South China Sea.

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