Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

The first published voting intention poll since the election credits both major parties with higher primary votes than they recorded last month, for one reason or another.

Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.

The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.

This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,923 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)”

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  2. Most would smell a rat too:

    ‘I don’t think we should jump to conclusions’: NSW premier urges caution on Barilaro job allegations.

    NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet has said he “isn’t sure” of the exact details regarding the appointment of former deputy premier John Barilaro to a $500,000-a-year New York trade posting less than a year after quitting state politics.

    Perrottet was questioned by RN Breakfast host Patricia Karvelas on a report from the Guardian that says business executive Jenny West received an offer for the role that was then rescinded to appoint Barilaro.

    NSW Labor has said it will move to block the appointment.

    “These are public service positions. These positions are not public appointments. The advice I’ve received is that an independent recruitment process took place and the former deputy premier was successful for the position,” the premier said.

    Karvelas then said she “smelt a rat” and questioned why the premier wasn’t investigating the appointment.] – SMH

  5. This Morgan poll with Labor only ahead 53-47 undisputably shows that there has been no honeymoon for the Albanese regime, when you compare it to the lofty heights that Rudd reached in 2007-8 prior to his slow decline and eventual knifing.

    I would venture to predict that Labor will lose its lead more quickly than people think, given the cost of living conditions – perhaps even before the end of the year. Only 35 months before Dutton becomes prime minister!!!

  6. Funny, there’s no mention of Mr Barilaro on the Daily Rupert site (Sydney edition). The front page is dominated by Wilkinsongate, plus what looks like a boost for the the NSW Budget. Likewise, no mention of Mr Barilaro on the site of the National Rupert.

    It’s a cliche, of course, but just imagine if a Labor Deputy Premier had resigned and was shortly thereafter “chosen” for a plumb State posting that he himself had created.

  9. Hi all. Just re-posting a late night question i put on the last thread.

    Would really appreciate any opinions about this, particularly from those with better legal and technical knowledge of how parliament works than me. Response last night from south is interesting. what does the GG think of this??

    Oh, and Morgan 53/47 at the moment?? Wake me up half way through next year. 🙂

    “Soooo……..watched that interview for the Project……..Lidia Thorpe has publicly said that she swore allegiance to the Queen, as Senators are required to, just to get the job, and absolutely doesn’t believe in it??

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5W-40L9gWg

    Ummmm……..so is she still qualified to be a Senator if someone successfully makes the case to the Senate that she was telling porkies when she swore her oath / affirmation?? Starts to call into question what the oath / affirmation that elected parliamentarians are required to make is actually for maybe??

    I think the woman may be an idiot. Perhaps the Leader of her party, the Greens, will speak on this, clear up any confusion, and reassure people that other Senators from the Greens take the whole promises / oath this seriously ?? “

  10. I doubt that Dutton will still be Opposition Leader by the time of the next election. Coalition Opposition leaders are normally given a year to make some impact.

  12. Please, no spoilers. (It’s on my to do list for the morning.)
    ______
    Late Riser
    You may find yourself moved to tears at some points.

  13. Pi @ #38 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 8:45 am

    If you think there won’t be new gas power stations in oz as we shut off the coal, you might want to sit down, because I have some bad news for you. I ain’t expecting the gas proportion of our grid to go down at all over the next 10 years, and maybe not for the next 15. In 2035, I expect gas will be the only fossil fuel used in our grid. After that time, it too will taper off as renewables overwhelm those assets. They’ll get shut down because they’re too expensive to maintain.

    Sure, gas will be important in the transition. But that statement by Husic is suggesting it will be important beyond 2040 and beyond net zero 2050. Which means new ones.

  14. Jan6: “But that statement by Husic is suggesting it will be important beyond 2040 and beyond net zero 2050. ”

    Yep. It’ll probably make up less than 2% of our grid in 2050. Except our grid will have 5x the capacity of what exists today, and the other 98% will be renewables. And 30 year old generators get replaced.

  16. I’m not sure that a former MP of any persuasion is a good look to head the NSW ICAC, no matter what his/her qualifications are for the job. On the other hand, a former MP would know the ropes.

  17. imacca, being an idiot isn’t really a career ending consideration for federal politicians. I mean, Hanson has been there for ages.

  18. Regarding the J6C’s work, the US midterm elections are less than 5 months away. Like many, I speculated last year when the J6C got started that they might pace their work (1) to maximise their party political outcomes and (2) to recover as much lost faith in the political process as possible. Put simply, they want to uncover as much dirt and as many hero stories as possible without risking running out of time.

    There’s a third goal too, now that I think about it, which is to demonstrate how important it is to vote and to get involved in the democratic process. I’ve still to watch this morning’s J6C Episode, but I suspect from what I’ve already read that this is part of it.

  19. Boerwar says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 9:50 am
    I see that Tugboat Annie is back to spread the love.
    ______________________________

    Well done, Boerwar! That’s the first time you’ve ever made me laugh out loud.

  20. Pi @ #64 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 9:34 am

    Jan6: “But that statement by Husic is suggesting it will be important beyond 2040 and beyond net zero 2050. ”

    Yep. It’ll probably make up less than 2% of our grid in 2050. Except our grid will have 5x the capacity. And 30 year old generators get replaced.

    The point needs to be made that the likelihood of new gas power stations in Australia is most likely only because the LNP chose short term political and, perhaps, personal financial gains at the expense of the national and global interest over the last 14 years. And, the cost of the transition to each and every one of us will be higher because of them. Every single one of their MPs during that time should hang their heads in shame.

  21. Forgot to say that last night around 7pm I got cold called by someone from the SA Liberals about the Bragg bi-election and their new candidate, Jack Batty. To enhance diversity this time the SA Libs pre-selected a white male political staffer with a law degree! I explained I would not be voting for him and cited climate change policy as a deal breaker.

    Apart from wondering how he got my private phone number (asked but avoided) I was surprised. This is the first time I have been cold called over the State seat in nearly 20 years here. Bragg is a very safe seat. Interesting if the SA Libs are worried. This will be our third election in the year. Must be something we can do to thank them for that?

  22. Jan 6 @ #63 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 10:01 am

    Sure, gas will be important in the transition. But that statement by Husic is suggesting it will be important beyond 2040 and beyond net zero 2050. Which means new ones.

    Indeed. Read this and weep:

    “So gas is going to have to play a role. And remember, net zero does not mean all zero. There will be some form of energy generation that will rely on coal or gas in the immediate term and the medium to longer term.”

    Husic is not proposing gas as a transition fuel. He is proposing to perpetuate – nay, expand – the use of gas in the longer term. Also, possibly – though this one really does beggar belief – coal.

    Let’s hope someone a bit more senior in Labor clarifies that Husic simply misspoke 🙁

  23. Making shit up to suit a preconceived narrative jan6.

    Of course gas will increase P1 ya dummy. We are going to mothballing the current 60% of our grid that comes from coal. And as an LNP voter, you are in no position to criticize.

  25. Steve777says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 9:54 am
    I doubt that Dutton will still be Opposition Leader by the time of the next election. Coalition Opposition leaders are normally given a year to make some impact.
    _____________________
    Will just have to wait and see.
    Have never known such doom and gloom at the start of a new govt.
    Petrol prices on the way up again. Gas and electricity shortages and price increases
    Then we had the comments from the Reserve Bank yesterday on interest rates and inflation.
    I wouldn’t be writing off Dutton just yet.

  27. From Colombia:
    Gustavo Petro becomes Colombia’s first leftist president
    Gustavo Petro, the leftist former Bogota mayor and ex-rebel fighter, won Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday. Petro beat construction magnate Rodolfo Hernández with a margin of more than 700,000 ballots, taking 50.5% of votes, Reuters reported. His running mate Francia Márquez, a single mother and former housekeeper,

  28. https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/06/22/morgan-53-47-to-labor-open-thread/comment-page-2/#comment-3942169

    Note sure I get the … sounds like the Greens want more done, Libs lite in the middle, Fibs/ Nats less, though a greater redux by 2030, goes to the IPCC +1, +2, +3/4C scenarios.
    Lotsa councils are on no regret moves, including more trees.
    The fuel mix keeps changing. More renewables, much about hydrogen, hydro, etc may be nuclear.
    Community batteries.
    Less centralised and more distributed generation needs rewiring/ balancers etc (not exactly news, ONU as one solution goes back about two decades).

  30. Gas will be used as insurance, as energy storage and the renewable build grows the insurance will become less important and less used.

    That is the basic fact, I expect a lot bullshit all round, it does get tiresome.

    From the Greens, we should be building more renewables instead of insurance, with no care of the resources available to do the build or the risks being managed. Just noise.

    From the Liberals and Chris Uhlmann, coal coal coal. Just noise.

  34. Re Pi @10:19 ”The 10-year LNP energy failure is going to take some effort to clean up, true.”

    You can only fail if you try. The Coalition wasn’t trying. It’s nine years of denial, inaction, distraction, tokenism (e.g. so-called “Direct Action”) and wrecking (e.g. Abbott’s jihad on Renewables). The achievements of the period 2008-13 were mostly torn down. We’ve mostly stood still or gone backwards since, with some renewable capacity brought online or planned in spite of the Coalition Government.

    We’re mostly starting again as if it were 2008. We can’t get rid of coal just yet. Gas will be needed to tide us over. But what we can have is a real (not pretend) commitment to zero net greenhouse emissions by 2050 backed a credible roadmap to get there.

  35. Frednk @ #80 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 10:33 am

    From the Greens, we should be building more renewables instead of insurance, with no care of the resources available to do the build or the risks being managed.

    I expect them to be more with it than that. They’ll say the insurance should be made of batteries instead of fossil-fuels (and also to build more renewables, yes). And they’re not wrong, if they say that.

  36. An election is looming in NSW. Perrottet and Kean are putting a lot of effort into being sensitive and reasonable at the moment. It would be unfortunate if that’s all undone by the stupidity of appointing Barilaro to a sinecure.

  37. I wonder if Freya or Taylormade will comment about the Guardian revelations that Liberal MP’s will cross the floor to support the Government’s climate policy.

    That would be a pretty good indication of their opinion of Dutton’s leadership I reckon.

  38. I think anyone from the Left wishing and hoping that a federal ICAC might suddenly find a big proportion of the previous Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison government as corrupt would be wishful thinking.

    While I am in no doubt that the previous government was a very right-wing and conservative administration hostile to progressive causes, I am yet to see concrete evidence that as an administration it was any more corrupt than a Liberal government under say, Menzies, Holt or Fraser.

    There is also the reality that a federal ICAC would probably not be functioning yet by the time the next election campaign is launched. And even if it did, the mainstream media would cry foul over how biassed its members are.

  39. Steve777 @ #84 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 10:38 am

    We’re mostly starting again as if it were 2008.

    True. But Labor does not even have the policy ambition it had back in 2007 on this issue. They have gone backwards at every opportunity since then, including adopting every half-arsed policy position the COALition ever proposed (recall that their current policy is basically Abbott’s “direct action” policy).

    It’s time to step up the ambition.

  41. BK at 8.32

    I have just about finished watching the three hours of last night’s Jan 6 hearing.
    It was devastating.
    I want Trump to suffer badly.
    ____________

    I have chosen to NOT regularly visit US sites like fivethirtyeight. All the news re the US seems bad: Biden can’t get his agenda past Manchin/Synema, inflation galloping, Biden’s approval worse than Trump’s was, New York courts strike down Deomocrat gerrymandering of congressional districts but Florida courts allow the Republicans to do it. So far, I’ve yet to see any of the recent voter suppression laws struck down by courts.

    Republicans on course to control Congress come November. Biden a lame duck till 2024. The only ways Trump doesn’t run are if he’s in jail or suffering terrible health – in which case the US Electoral College probably selects de Santis because several Republican states have gamed the system to ensure 2020 doesn’t happen again.

    After 2024, the Republican President and Congress take further steps to entrench minority rule. ‘America First’ means international alliances are devalued. Who provides a ‘nuclear deterrent’ for Australia?

    I know I’ve missed stuff like the US makes it almost impossible for a woman to have an abortion anywhere in the 50 states, while de-funding overseas organisations that don’t follow Right wing moral teaching.

    This is the nation on which we depend for strategic safety.

  44. a r says:
    Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 10:39 am


    Frednk @ #80 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 10:33 am

    From the Greens, we should be building more renewables instead of insurance, with no care of the resources available to do the build or the risks being managed.

    I expect them to be more with it than that. They’ll say the insurance should be made of batteries instead of fossil-fuels (and also to build more renewables, yes). And they’re not wrong, if they say that.

    And they would be wrong. Batteries ( and all available energy storage technology) require charging, the renewable build has to progress a lot further before we have excess energy at good times to do that.

    There will be no shortage of bullshit from those that have little understanding of the magnitude of the issues being dealt with; I am sure.

    Transforming the grid while moving from ICE to electric cars is going to be no small feat. The added dimension; those that are technically competent will be subjected to a sea of bullshit.

  46. “I doubt that Dutton will still be Opposition Leader by the time of the next election. Coalition Opposition leaders are normally given a year to make some impact.”

    Does Peter Dutton have some protection because of a lack alternative though? Angus Taylor and Dan Tehan are still relatively unknown. Simon Birmingham is based in the senate.

    It doesn’t mean I think Dutton will win the next election because I don’t. I just think he might make it to the next election as opposition leader. You are just going to see obstruction and negatively with nothing else to offer with Dutton.

    Dutton also shown a born to rule mentality. Instead of saying ‘we learned some hard lessons after the election’. He instead has suggested voters will have ‘buyers remorse’ after a Labor government. Which shows a refusal to acknowledge the voters verdict or acknowledging the shortcomings of the previous government.

  47. a r,
    The only problem with your idealistic scenario is that there is a resource shortage wrt the raw materials to make enough big batteries to satisfy the ongoing need, let alone a big switch to them asap. Especially as one of the biggest suppliers, Chile, is using a very dirty method to extract the Rare Earths needed. Australia will and is using a more environmentally sensitive method. So it’s best to hasten slowly.

    Not to mention that the national grid needs to be harmonised to Renewables.

  48. I suspect, but am not sure, that the Brits don’t extradite people to where they may be executed. I assume that the terms of Assange’s extradition would include a clause in which the US undertakes not to execute Assange.

    Having lost in the courts on this potential bar to extradition Assange’s legal team may appeal on the basis that the CIA is planning to assassinate Assange.

    My view is that the CIA does not need someone to be extradited in order to assassinate someone so assassination per se should be no bar to Assange’s extradition.

  50. Re the extension of pork to Barilaro…

    Tragic that a story like this takes attention away from a pre-election budget.

    Unbelievable this stuff surfaces now – they should’ve waited till after the election to appoint him.

    One action has boosted Labor’s NSW election chances while the meeja were doing their best to ignore a relatively-anonymous Chris Minns.

    I suspect Perottet will have to choose between giving a job to Barilaro and keeping govt. Not a difficult choice.

    I’d love it if Barilaro lost his job AND the Coalition still lost NSW govt!

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