Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
C@tmomma at 10:59 am
We have a shit load of Lithium, there should be no problems with supply. But it looks like dumb arse Australian governments and business have produced another ‘LNG’ with one of our a ‘natural advantages’ .
‘Having lost in the courts on this potential bar to extradition Assange’s legal team may appeal on the basis that the CIA is planning to assassinate Assange.
My view is that the CIA does not need someone to be extradited in order to assassinate someone so assassination per se should be no bar to Assange’s extradition.’
They do if the Brits haven’t given them permission to assassinate on Brit soil.
Boerwar @ #99 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 10:31 am
Pretty sure it is just hot air BW.
j6
LOL
poroti @ #101 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 10:35 am
You dont have to be a 3rd world country to be taken by the resource curse. But it helps to have some 3rd world style politicians.
Frednk @ #94 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 10:52 am
It needs to go somewhat further. But negative pricing (due to surplus energy) is already a thing. And there have been stories about various regulators seeking to curtail solar output (and even prevent new solar from being built) due to excess production, for years now.
There’s not a surplus 100% of the time in 100% of the places. Neither is it the case that there’s not some quantity of surplus energy available now that could be used for charging, if we just built something to charge. And that quantity is only increasing.
Boerwar
Hemp flags for sure.
Well I have arrived at the Nine Dragons restaurant in Chinatown. Give me a shout out on PB when you turn up too. 🙂
In response to Freya at 10:46;
As just one example, if sports rorts wasn’t corrupt, why did McKenzie resign?
FICAC is urgent ALP business, a whole bunch of new Teal MHR’s were elected on the basis that it would happen, so they will want it ASAP, and legislation is being drafted now based on legislation prepared by the Indi independent’s work during the last parliament. Note that the Liberal MHR Archer from Tasmania is pushing for FICAC. It will be in place by christmas, much to Dutton’s chagrin.
How can you possibly say that the MSM will object to the FICAC Commissioners at this stage? You have just acknowledged how biased to the right they are. That doesn’t matter because the recommendations of the Rudd Royal Commission into News Corp will wipe them off the map. Note that few took any notice of the MSM at the last election.
Granny Anny,
It was nice of you to take Freya Stark seriously, but why would you???
C@t, Freya Stark and the other few right wing loons have one method of attack only, and that is bullshit.
If you come back at them with a few facts, they are forced to change the subject, just like Taylormade hasn’t mentioned Morrison’s enormous list of achievements since he made that gaff.
@C@tmomma
Apologies, the King is stuck at his desk doing work stuff today and unfortunately will have to pass on the lunch. Enjoy the yum cha.
C@t,
Im outside the Nine Dragons.
And here we go again, not a FICAC matter but certainly one for the NSW ICAC. The Guardian now tells us that the interview panel that appointed Barilaro to his new job, included a member of his staff. How convenient.
Like to comment Freya?
We all know the real reason for shifting Bruz out of the country was to get him out of the reaches of NSW ICAC and revelations of, ahem, friendly relations with his female staff.
C@t
Running very late.
Kep the food hot, booze cold, conversation humming and I will be there around 1
a r says:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 11:10 am
Frednk @ #94 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 10:52 am
Batteries ( and all available energy storage technology) require charging, the renewable build has to progress a lot further before we have excess energy at good times to do that.
It needs to go somewhat further. But negative pricing (due to surplus energy) is already a thing. And there have been stories about various regulators seeking to curtail solar output (and even prevent new solar from being built) due to excess production, for years now.
There’s not a surplus 100% of the time in 100% of the places. Neither is it the case that there’s not some quantity of surplus energy available now that could be used for charging, if we just built something to charge. And that quantity is only increasing.
Your 100% correct. Right now there is room for more energy storage, and right now you can make a buck installing it, designing for this is part of what I do.
There is money to be made because when the sun is shining many parts of the grid have renewable supply that exceeds what can be taken and charging batteries is better than spilling the excess availability. Buying electricity at $0 and selling it at $10000 gwh. Its easy to see where the money is made. On a typical day however the margin is less.
The price goes negative for two reasons:
1)In the current conditions coal fired stations are close to useless because you can’t shut them down, gas you can. Coal has no future no matter how mane times someone yells coal.
2)Solar farms get tradable carbon certificates (pretty amazing that a market exist when you consider how much bullshit there has been in this area) so they make money even with a negative market price.
Right now the only state that goes 100% renewable at times is Tasmania, South Australia gets close, the rest of the country has miles to go. A big build out is required to get to that point.
When the coal fired stations are gone one of the driver for negative prices will be gone, that is a ling term issue.
All this has to be balanced as the load goes up because of electric cars.
It is going to be a difficult period, gas fired stations are going to be a relative cheap insurance to get us through it.
In the long run, Gas has no future, there is a fuel cost.
Yelling and screaming bullshit is not going to change the facts.
Freya Stark says:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 10:46 am
“While I am in no doubt that the previous government was a very right-wing and conservative administration hostile to progressive causes, I am yet to see concrete evidence that as an administration it was any more corrupt than a Liberal government under say, Menzies, Holt or Fraser.”
That may well be true.
But it would be nice if all governments – regardless of their stripe – aspired to the highest levels of probity.
poroti: “We have a shit load of Lithium, there should be no problems with supply.”
We have shitloads of lithium… in the ground. It will take many years before that lithium gets into batteries. Yet another example of the energy vandalism of the LNP over the past 10 years.
But because it’s still in the ground, until it is in the batteries, gas is required. And lots of it! To replace the 60% of the grid that is currently served by coal.
Over the past decade (coincidence anyone?) Australia has declined in the Corruption Perceptions Index from Transparency International.
Evidently the international community believes the recent spate of LNP governments has failed to address corruption.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 10:57 am
“I doubt that Dutton will still be Opposition Leader by the time of the next election. Coalition Opposition leaders are normally given a year to make some impact.”
In any case, Dutton has only been in 20 yrs so the public don’t really know who he is right? Wasn’t that the Libs claim about Albo who’d been parliament longer?
GA
Engaging with trolls is what keeps them coming back. They are not interested in anything you have to say. Their whole purpose is to press your buttons and annoy you and every time you respond they know they have succeeded. Best to just ignore them.
Pi at 12:01 pm
Plenty getting ‘above ground’ but HELLO LNG …….again ! . What a joke we are. World’s No.1 LNG exporter and FMD it is “Oh noes, we haz no gas”
According to BK’s news roundup this morning, “Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has sought to put a lid on wages growth of about 3.5 per cent and warned regular pay rises of 4 to 5 per cent risked entrenching higher inflation”.
This graph from the ABS shows how on average, profits have been far more lucrative than wage growth;
https://public.tableau.com/views/Wagesandprofits/ProfitsvsWages?:embed=y&:showVizHome=no?abcnewsembedheight=550
I know it’s radical, but if it is good enough to constrain wages growth for the good of the economy, why shouldn’t profits be contrained as well?
@Bystander
Agreed.
There are people who are amenable to change even if they have been staunch conservatives their whole lives.
However, it is also important to recognize those who have no intention of changing or learning.
I disagree Bystander. Facts shut down the right wing loons and are also noted by others. It helps to spread the good news.
I reckon I have pressed their buttons more than they press mine. I like a good laugh and that’s about all they are good for.
Cheers
En route. ETA 10 min.
BiltongCinematicU at 12:01 pm
Check out the SfM ‘plummet’ , FICAC NOW !!
(their caps)
AUSTRALIA’S WORST-EVER CORRUPTION SCORE POINTS TO URGENT NEED FOR NATIONAL INTEGRITY COMMISSION
https://transparency.org.au/worst-ever-corruption-score/
poroti, those are unrelated data points. As frednk points out, batteries aren’t helpful if you don’t have the renewables energy capacity to fill them, and the amount of batteries we will require is a mammoth undertaking. And we have effectively zero manufacturing expertise in batteries, only lithium resource extraction.
It is going to take years for us to build this capacity, which we should have been doing for the past 10 years of LNP climate vandalism. But we didn’t.
So now we start. Until that battery capacity comes online, the primary climate concern is mothballing coal generation facilities. And that means more gas. And it doesn’t matter how much you want to wish for a reality that doesn’t exist, we’re faced with the reality that the LNP created for us. Reducing gas usage, for now, is simply not an option. It’s going to increase; significantly. And your choice, right now, is gas or coal, because it will take years to build the renewables infrastructure to replace them. Given that reality, coal first; then gas.
@Cronuss
I didn’t actually make that comment your got me quoting as saying. I was actually responding to that comment when I quoted that.
The way you structured your post makes it seems I have that view. When that was not what I posted as my response.
@poroti
It’s why I believed this to be one of the most important elections in Australian history.
If the LNP had gotten in again I shudder to think how much they would have normalized corruption like the Republicans have done in the US.
An ICAC is desperately needed. Further reforms around integrity and transparency are also needed.
poroti
“(their caps)
AUSTRALIA’S WORST-EVER CORRUPTION SCORE POINTS TO URGENT NEED FOR NATIONAL INTEGRITY COMMISSION”
https://transparency.org.au/worst-ever-corruption-score/
Thanks for the link. Sadly true. Transparency International’s view is not a subjective opinion either. I have had some contact with TI when I was writing a paper on ethics. They have detailed criteria for defining the risk and consequences of corruption in the public and private sectors. Hence the point score.
When you consider that the Morrison government was both highly secretive, abandoned normal process on many major funding decisions, and cut funding for various regulators, the risk of corrupt conduct is obvious.
Political Nightwatchman says:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 10:57 am
“I doubt that Dutton will still be Opposition Leader by the time of the next election. Coalition Opposition leaders are normally given a year to make some impact.”
Does Peter Dutton have some protection because of a lack alternative though? Angus Taylor and Dan Tehan are still relatively unknown. Simon Birmingham is based in the senate.
It doesn’t mean I think Dutton will win the next election because I don’t. I just think he might make it to the next election as opposition leader. You are just going to see obstruction and negatively with nothing else to offer with Dutton.
Dutton also shown a born to rule mentality. Instead of saying ‘we learned some hard lessons after the election’. He instead has suggested voters will have ‘buyers remorse’ after a Labor government. Which shows a refusal to acknowledge the voters verdict or acknowledging the shortcomings of the previous government.
—————————————————————————————-
Apologies, certainly not intended to imply you shared that view, quite the opposite in fact. Poor structuring on my part.
GA
I don’t think facts will ever ‘shut down right wing loons’. But if you are genuinely enjoying the interaction with them, albeit in a back handed kind of way, I can understand why you would want to keep doing it.
Battery forward planning. The NZ gov put money into startups for replacing and recycling batteries in older EVs. Nissan were charging a rate for this that basically told people to GAGF (buy a new car). So the government decided to tell Nissan to GAGF and subsidised new players to create a competitive market for this service. EV batteries when they get old reduce the vehicles range to the point the vehicle becomes far less convenient. The battery is still very useful as a home battery. Or can be recycled. The market isnt interested in this yet so a good government – one not hamstrung by BS blind ideology (‘getting government out of your life’) or wilful neglect (by supporting their mates industries) or playing political games (EVs will ruin your weekend) – will and should step in.
Jan 6 @ #134 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 12:54 pm
Absolutely. The EV has a 75kWh battery pack, which is good for 420km of driving under real-world conditions. Plenty.
The house has a 27kWh battery, which (combined with solar panels) is good for being fully self-powered, even through winter and even with charging the EV. Also plenty.
If the car’s battery were to degrade 50% it would no longer be useful as a car (this would take 15-20 years, minimum, based upon the observed degredation rate since purchasing the EV). But it would also still be a significant upgrade as a house battery. Or still large enough to split the pack and get two house batteries out of it.
EV battery and solar panel recycling and repurposing are going to be billion dollar industries in 20 years i reckon.
Monster home battery setup there ar.
“ The head of Queensland’s peak rural lobby group AgForce says the science is not settled on climate change as he criticises New Zealand’s plan to reduce agricultural emissions.”
“One of the things I believe very strongly, having spent a lot of time working with scientists — and I’m not a scientist — but the belief I have is that the science is never settled,” he said.
This is the same lame excuse that has been hauled out for decades to ensure delay and denial. Despite admitting he’s not an expert, he believes ……… himself.
Fear not Australia, we in QLD may yet catch up by 2100.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2022-06-22/agforce-queensland-ceo-questions-climate-science/101166642
Chris Minns
#REVEALED This keeps getting worse and worse.
It’s been revealed that an official who interviewed John Barilaro for the NYC role – used to report to him as a Minister.
They claim there is no conflict of interest.
This is the same role Barilaro created.
A role he now has.
Pi at 1.16
EV battery and solar panel recycling and repurposing are going to be billion dollar industries in 20 years i reckon.
____________
Another industry willfully delayed by an ideologically-driven Coalition govt? Colour me surprised…
Snappy Tom says:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 1:21 pm
Pi at 1.16
EV battery and solar panel recycling and repurposing are going to be billion dollar industries in 20 years i reckon.
____________
“Another industry willfully delayed by an ideologically-driven Coalition govt? Colour me surprised…”
Which makes no sense either for the nation or for the Coalition who are supposedly great supporters of big business ……. until they aren’t. Perhaps they are the party of past industry rather than future industries.
Barilarogate is sinking the Teal Budget.
Tin Ear stuff.
In a nutshell
—-
Kos Samaras
Watching the Liberal Party’s response to the loss of the teal seats has been a great lesson in power. It’s all an illusion.
They basically have spent the last few weeks attacking the voters they 5 weeks ago were calling their base.
What a train wreck
The Barilaro/Perrottet story has finally made it into Murdoch’s DT:
Littleproud has confirmed that the Nationals do not support higher interim targets. I assume that this means that Labor’s target is being opposed by the Liberals, the Nationals, the Teals, One Nation, the Greens Party and United Australia. The Wreckers, Blockers and Snarkers are out in force.
There is a point to which so many people have skeletons and everyone knows where everyone else skeletons are that nobody dare rock the gravy boat.
Revlon Super Lustrous Porcine Lipstick (with moisturising formula).
Uhlmann is taking the loss of govt leaks very well it appears.
As some predicted, looks to me as though the 43% target will pass the parliament but proposed measures by crossbench will be taken up by the Govt that will exceed the legislated 43%.
Win-win.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2022/06/22/fast-renewables-transition-crucial-bowen/
All together now , sing along ………
.
Roll out the Barilaro
We’ll have some Barilaro fun
Roll out the Barilaro
We’ve got the Blues on the run
Zing boom tararrel
Ring out a song of good cheer
Now’s the time to roll the Barilaro
P1 and the Greens won’t like Daniel’s statement.