Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
bryon
Your assumption about the US only giving Ukraine enough heavy weapons to continue fighting, but not enough to win is a nonsense.
You also seem to think a peace treaty will end Russia’s ambition to seize all of Ukraine and enact genocide. What sort of peace treaty is going to convince Russia to return the million plus Ukrainians now forcibly deported?
As the war goes on, Western resolve hardens. Witness Scholtz’s reaction to seeing the massacres around Kyiv in person.
Rakali
The comment above should have been in response to Here we go again.
Rakali,
A Karen being a Karen about drink driving, get’s done drink driving and acts like a Karen about it.
The lack of shame makes the right powerfully, sadly.
Lot of adverts last night from the “Australian Gas Network” trying to convince us gas is green.
https://apple.news/ASHW-epm8SxqsKRkeNIgrQQ
Affected by wokeness …
A 42 year old man was arrested and charged with murder, attempted murder, and terroristic acts, after carrying out a mass shooting at a LGBTQ+ venue in Oslo, Norway. 2 people were killed, 21 injured, 10 of them seriously.
Eyewitnesses say the man entered the building, took out a gun from his bag, and began firing into the crowd. Police say they consider the attack to be an act of Islamic extremism.
https://twitter.com/IntelDoge/status/1540764738920910850?s=20
Isn’t it great to see Cud Chewer back on board again? 🙂
Sobering discussion with Ben Wittes from Lawfare on Roe v Wade. Consensus is that the decision paves the way for dismantling of other rights (SSM, contraception etc). The court is so outside of public opinion now.
https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/ben-wittes-roe-coups-guns-2/
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. A rather skimpy collection today, I’m afraid.
James Massola reports that two key Senate crossbenchers are threatening to vote against government legislation after the Anthony Albanese slashed the number of advisers they will have in the new parliament.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/furious-crossbench-senators-threaten-to-vote-against-labor-legislation-after-staff-cuts-20220625-p5awjb.html
Jacqui Maley seems to side with Sally McManus’s “OK Boomer” jibe at the RBA’s Philip Rowe.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sally-mcmanus-has-pulled-the-ok-boomer-card-on-phil-lowe-is-it-fair-20220624-p5awf1.html
Michael Pascoe begins this thoughtful contribution with, “For most of us, it’s in our nature not to do much more than we need to do to be comfortable. Inertia is a powerful force. Which is why it sometimes takes difficulties and challenges to force us to change, to do more than we have been comfortable doing, to drive innovation. And that is why the “problem” of a shortage of desirable workers or the need to pay employees more, is not necessarily as bad as the usual self-serving lobbyists make out. In the big picture, it can result in greater investment and improved productivity, along with the Darwinian aspect of the least healthy failing.”
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2022/06/25/moussaka-productivity-challenges-pascoe/
The government has admitted almost all rooftop solar energy in Australia may be double-counted – a massive emission reduction free ride for Australia’s largest corporations. Callum Foote reports.
https://michaelwest.com.au/revealed-australias-true-emissions-concealed-corporates-double-count-household-rooftop-solar/
There is one area in which the Greens are out in a class of their own – hubris, writes Noel Turnbull.
https://johnmenadue.com/noel-turnbull-hubristic-greens/
Caitlin Fitzsimmons writes that the overturning of Roe v Wade in the United States could reignite the debate about abortion access in Australia and increase the stigma for people who terminate unwanted pregnancies.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-overturning-roe-v-wade-means-for-australia-20220625-p5awk9.html
A memo from the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis warned federal and state government officials, including judges, were probably “most at risk for violence in response to the decision”. It noted that potential violence was expected “for weeks” following Friday’s decision, and that domestic violent extremists “may be mobilised to respond to changes in state laws and ballot measures” related to abortion.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/2022/06/26/america-abortion-ruling-protest/?breaking_live_scroll=1
“United States, no more. It is a failed state”, declares Philip Adams. He makes a strong case.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/weekend-australian-magazine/united-states-no-more-it-is-a-failed-state/news-story/f6053c96f6ac8dca3cd0a1412cca4297
Katherine Stewart explains How the Christian right took over the judiciary and changed America. Frightening.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/25/roe-v-wade-abortion-christian-right-america
Cartoon Corner
Peter Broelman
Matt Golding
Mark Knight
From the US
Thanks BK.
Thanks, BK.
And yes, C@t, I’ve missed Cud Chewer’s presence on this blog!
During a two-hour meeting in her Senate office with the Supreme Court nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh on Aug. 21, 2018, Senator Susan Collins of Maine pressed him hard on why she should trust him not to overturn Roe v. Wade if she backed his confirmation.
Judge Kavanaugh worked vigorously to reassure her that he was no threat to the landmark abortion rights ruling.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/24/us/roe-kavanaugh-collins-notes.html
Lying prick!
BK:
They all lied during their confirmation hearings!
And in any case, Collins should’ve known better than to trust anyone nominated by Trump.
albanese has seemd very quiet as pm not as hi profile as former leaders
BK @ #1342 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 7:39 am
Yes, Joe Manchin as well wrt Neil Gorsuch. They used weasel words about stare decisis and Precedent, to the extent of roughly saying, it’s Precedent…until I, as a Supreme Court judge decide that it should no longer be. But they left that bit out of the conversation. Evil s-o-bs!
I do wonder 20 years from now what the flyover states, who have the most draconian abortion laws will look like demography-wise.
If I were a young woman in one of those states no way would I stay there. The writing is on the wall that the Supreme Court is going to dismantle other federal laws around civil liberties and return them to the states, so you’d want to make sure you lived in a state that at least offered some modicum of protection for individual rights.
As they say, follow the money.
Am about to buy “Dark Money”by Jane Meyer re the secrets of the Koch Bros and their Nazi connections.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-secrets-behind-the-ko_b_9342602
This is what I’ve been looking for …
… the final paragraph from James Massola, ta BK.
Rakali
Your inference is insulting and a reflection on you
Is your alternative another World War to attempt to terminate the existence of Russia , China and every other Nation with an “undesirable” to you system of government (noting the number of single party jurisdictions globally including having a token opposition of no consequence except window dressing)?
As a party to the foregoing, Australia has lost Wars in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan
And the Korea Peninsula War continues
Then you arrive at those Nations which have nuclear capacity
And in regard the concerns of the accounting industry at the ATO review of the transactions of Family Trusts, back in the day in banking you were obligated to report to the ATO any transaction which had as its intent the minimising or eradication of a tax liability
Confessions @ #1346 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 7:52 am
I think the biggest negative effect is going to be on states like Texas and South Carolina, who have been enticing big corporations, via tax breaks, to headquarter there. They generally have enlightened workforces, so if those workers decide they would rather work for another company in a more enlightened state, then the brain drain will take its toll as I believe the companies will eventually relocate too.
Especially if the SCOTUS keeps on going the way they have started, by attacking LGBTQI+ Rights and Same Sex Marriage. Also, something as basic as contraception, fcs!
After this year federal election
The independents especially those who got preferences from Labor voters are making a political mistake , and should think carefully about using the corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units to attack albanese .
The corrupt lib/nats propaganda media units will not go into attack mode for the independents benefit , but only for the media/tycoons outlets and Lib/nats political benefit
ItzaDream @ #1348 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 7:55 am
Yes, exactly. I was waiting, myself, for nath to log on and pipe up with some smart arse comment before I let go with Katy Gallagher’s comment in full as well, from the same article, but you forced my hand 😉 :
Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said she had had just two adviser-level staff in opposition and that “we’re all making cuts and savings”.
Plus,
“I think it’s just over $1.5 million in relation to staffing our side of the chamber and we’re having to be sensible going forward. The budget’s in a terrible shape and we’re all having to tighten our belts,” she said.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/furious-crossbench-senators-threaten-to-vote-against-labor-legislation-after-staff-cuts-20220625-p5awjb.html
”
Confessionssays:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 6:41 am
Sobering discussion with Ben Wittes from Lawfare on Roe v Wade. Consensus is that the decision paves the way for dismantling of other rights (SSM, contraception etc). The court is so outside of public opinion now.
https://www.thebulwark.com/podcast-episode/ben-wittes-roe-coups-guns-2/
”
Did you view Rachel Maddow take posted by BK?
BKsays:
Saturday, June 25, 2022 at 7:52 pm
Very powerful stuff from Rachel Maddow here on yesterday’s SCOTUS abortion decision.
https://twitter.com/MaddowBlog/status/1540550165861486593
C@t:
Yes. Several companies yesterday announced they would support staff travel to states with abortion access, so I wonder how many of those are in Texas. Disney was one of them, based in Florida.
But this is a shitshow! Total division of a nation with the dismantling of the division between church and state.
Ven:
Yes I did see that.
the liberals are not off to a good start seem to be copying the trump abot formular of negativeduttons wishing foor the boats return is not happining because albanese team learnt from rudd gillard wonder when albanese will name his advisors and chief off staff
with how hard sky and news corp campaigned against the independents stegle in particular suprised there going on sky news to attack Albanese he perhaps should have left them with 2 staff not just oneor 3 but 4 is to much with the opposition only having 2 there just independents not a party morrison did not liston to the independents much desbite giving them more staff lambi seems unhappy with any government
”
There is one area in which the Greens are out in a class of their own – hubris, writes Noel Turnbull.
https://johnmenadue.com/noel-turnbull-hubristic-greens/
”
Is Noel Turnbull BW? 🙂
#weatheronPB
A smoky tang wrinkles my nose.
Wispy clouds hover, waiting, uncertain, undecided.
Until magpie breaks the silence.
Collins tends to suport the republican lyne but justincluding suprime cought picks but just before election make s tocan vote against the party to protend shes a moderit and get re electid manchin is to the right of collins and romney and other republicans he belongsi in the republicans he is not a democrat wonder weather johnson will be charged over fake balits mckonals weak response was no big deal as pence refused to see the fake balits
how ever trumps influence must be falling as tried fora couple of years to get rid of mckonal as republican senate leader with even his allies refusing to do so think pilocie needs to go hows chuck shummer doing as majority leader of senate any chance Bidon can appoint some new sumrime cought judges to go more progresive when obama pick rejected should have nominated some one else to put someone in before the republicans could winn
Collins are Murkowski are GOP. They never vote against GOP legislation that will actually fail. It’s all a performance act.
Cutting the number of advisors remains a bad move.
People complaining about “bribing” the Independents sound like the idealistic Greens so many people complain about.
Idealism means nothing. Just do what it takes to win.
Besides, the article posted mentions the independent Jenkins Report which advises on increasing staff to prevent burnout and poor workplace culture.
Thanks for the roundup BK.
On the stories about SCOTUS nominees lying to Senators (Manchin and Collins) I think those revelations are tactical now. Collins survives as a “moderate” Republican from a progressive State. Manchin is a democrat in name only (Dino?). The falseness of both Gorsuch and Kavanaugh’s replies to Senate questions were reported widely at the time of their hearings. Both had a long track record of ultra-conservative legal rulings.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jun/25/gorsuch-kavanaugh-misled-senators-roe-v-wade
Aaron newton @ #1356 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 8:12 am
Tim Gartrell has already been named as the PM’s Chief of Staff, Aaron.
Also, Katherine Murphy gets it about Dutton and the Coalition:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/25/australian-voters-have-sent-peter-dutton-a-clear-message-he-would-be-silly-to-miss-the-cue
Confessions @ #1474 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 7:39 am
Hmmmm, yes indeed it is a sh!tshow. But the decision, in a way, is a symptom of the division that existsin the people of the US (on abortion and guns and even health care ffs). And the church is only getting a look in because
a) the Republicans see it as a divide and win strategy (plenty of potential Democrat voters are of faith) and…. far more dangerously….
b) because of the sh!tshow of the US political system. You simply cant have an prescriptive and ancient constitution holding sway in an adversarial political system with plenty of bad faith political actors. It makes stupid archaic old rules, that make no sense, impossible to change and allows (actually, it forces) judges to use their bias in rulings.
This is a failure of the constitution (really, they should set out procedural matters and checks and balances – impossible to change bills of rights are fraught with danger). It is also a failure of political systems set up by the constitution and the politicians and political parties that use and abuse them.
For good or bad, governments should be able to pass laws they were elected to create. For good or bad, governments must be able to fix problems they believe exists. A 2 party, adversarial political system full of checks and balances can (will?) rot especially if one party sees benefit in that. Instead of legislation to resolve issues, desperation turns to SCOTUS to tweeze out absurdity from a meaningless document. Roe v Wade should never have happened. Governments should have passed laws to legislate it.
Thanks Quasar 🙂
If there were the equivalent of the AEC in America it would be a far, far better and peaceful country.
The level of gerrymandering is egregious.
Now, will this work?
CC, I see Buzz.
Husband and son have just tested positive, I’m negative…but obviously it’s coming for me…
On the reduction of advisors to independents, I lack the experience for an opinion on the practical pros and cons, and in that wouldn’t most voters be like me? So isn’t it possible that voters won’t be impressed if their MP renounces their commitments to issues such as climate change (to pick just one), solely over this? It might be viewed as childish, unwilling to knuckle down, and available for purchase.
You might expect it from Pauline Hanson “[who] said the default position would be for its two senators to vote against all government legislation”. But standing in the same corner, and for the same toys-out-the-cot reason as PHON seems risky. It’s also interesting that Massola closes with this.
“Former prime minister Julia Gillard in 2010 allocated independent MPs one adviser, who earns up to a maximum of $141,372 per year. That was raised to three advisers under Malcolm Turnbull and then four under Scott Morrison.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/furious-crossbench-senators-threaten-to-vote-against-labor-legislation-after-staff-cuts-20220625-p5awjb.html
BK
Not just gerrymandering. The malfeasance of the Republicans in the Senate boils down to a broken Constitution. You can fix Congressional Districts, but in the end its the Constitution and its 2 Senators per state rule that is responsible for Republicans consistently having the power to wreck reforms in the Senate. The only thing that fixes the US is cultural change and that starts with social pressure being brought to bear on small town America.
Buzz Aldrin?
If four was unnecessarily generous, and one seems blatantly minimalist, then two seems a reasonable compromise. At least two is twice as many as one.
zoomster says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 9:02 am
Husband and son have just tested positive, I’m negative…but obviously it’s coming for me…
Daughter in law twice, son once.
Jan 6 –
Yes. The corruption of the SCOTUS – and I realize that it has a long history of being stacked and making egregious decisions, so this is nothing new, but the current situation is a direct result of the original Roe v Wade. When these contentious battles are fought and decided in courts then your political battleground necessarily becomes the courts not the legislatures.
The courts cannot be your political battleground and retain any sense of objectivity or neutrality.
We have almost no individual constitutional rights in Australia; the states by and large get to legislate fairly freely with respect to these contentious issues, and yet … the battles get fought and won in our parliaments, largely (eventually at least) in accordance with public sentiment, and then the appetite for the battle dissipates. We’re not having heated public square debates about abortion or guns or VAD or gay marriage. A large minority will still have significant opposition to the (now) status quo on these things, but there is no prospect at the moment of any of our governments winding back the clock on any of these issues. Of course anything is possible down the track, and that sense that every generation can’t become complacent about rights or protections won by the previous generation is of course true, but the process for change either way is clear and doesn’t involve stacking courts, and so is guided by what passes for the public will and what gets governments elected or thrown out, not the strategic distortion of our political and legal mechanisms.
Of course an independent, competent AEC (and state equivalents) helps enormously.
Insider seemed to be fixed on reducing the demand of the lowest paid. Perhaps putting of the third stage tax cut might be a good idea.
Increasing the demand pressure from the highest paid and forcing a reduction from the lowest paid is unethical at any level.
Well said Jackol.
It’s telling that even now there are Democrats advocating for stacking the court to solve this problem when really it is just kicking the can down the road.
In my opinion the Democrats need to enforce something similar to the “caucus solidarity” that the ALP have. They fight even more amongst themselves than they do with the Republicans! The DNC hold the purse strings but don’t apply any pressure with them.
The Democrats can still win a majority even when the Electoral College is biased against them. But they don’t use it when they get in power! The Republicans are much better at maintaining caucus discipline.
Take Care Zoomster, for me and my family it’s been negative all round thus far.
It could be possible that we have no life and our kids have no friends…
UK Cartoons:
