Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
Spears really is boring.
Thanks again BK
Aaron newton says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 7:46 am
“albanese has seemd very quiet as pm not as hi profile as former leaders”
FWIW I think this is good. I think it was a significant part of Premier Palasczuk’s success after a load, obnoxious and untrustworthy Campbell Newman who was much like Morrison. All hype but no substance. I think we just want our leaders to do their job, fake fanfare is unnecessary.
Best wishes zoomster. So far (touch wood!) I’ve managed to avoid Covid, but it’s only a matter of time before it strikes me.
It doesn’t take long for politicians after an election, to become very excited about their self-importance in deciding the future decision making in parliament.
The brouhaha surrounding the staffing allocation for parliamentarians, both in the HOR and Senate is just that.
Anyone having experienced the activity surrounding parliament house would be forgiven for thinking their representatives don’t need any staff at all.
Humility is uncommon in the politician cohort.
Why is Speers wasting time asking Chalmers about nominations to the RBA board a year from now? Esp when there are other pressing matters to ask him about.
A good example of the difference between the US and Australia was on the front page of Adelaide’s Sunday Mail this morning. It was a photo of Premier Peter Malinauskas helping to chair off an old footballer after a game in a lowly grade of local footy. Malinauskas would have driven to the oval, played, had a shower with his teammates and driven home.
Could you imagine this happening with the governor of a US state?
CC,
Not Aldrin, but Lightyear. There was a link to Disney in your “Display Name”. I’ve noticed you’ve done this before. When you posted “Now, will this work?” with a link to Disney, I took it that that was what you meant. (Cute graphics.) 🙂
Thanks BK
That SMH story on Lambie and Pocock threatening to reject legislation over a cut in cross bench staffing looks like it has kicked up strong reactions from cross bench members in the HOR and the Senate.
It might make sense to Labor, but the political fall out might not be worth the trouble. Albo might have to back track on this “proposal” if he wants to get Greens and Pocock support in the Senate. Right now it reads like an own goal to me.
PS: Thank God they have Amy R on the ABC this morning to cut through the BS and David wankers gotcha games. Otherwise it would be a waste of an hour
All the best zoomster and family. I’d probably be popping some Vit D.
Q: At least two is twice as many as one
Yes, and allows for someone to go on holidays, or COVID leave, maternity leave etc…
Confessions @ #1505 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 9:29 am
To make himself look stupid and give Chalmers the opportunity to give refreshingly clear answers about government policy.
Here is a classic spit after the SCOTUS abortion decision.
https://twitter.com/pattonoswalt/status/1540743979267940353
Zoomster
All the best!
My OH brought it home to me a few weeks back.
He recovered more quickly than I did.
Cheeky monkey. Lol!
So now it is coming out.
Three staff for shadow ministers.
Backbench one.
Cross bench four.
Greg Sheridan a Labor stooge. Who knew.
Corona can hang around for a while after you get “better” and test negative. I got it a month ago and I’m still having nanny naps for three hours during the day; maybe cause I am old fart but yeah don’t push too hard after the first 10 days, it can drain you quickly.
Back to the staffers debate quickly
From the Guardian
Clare told Sky News:
If you’re a Labor MP, or Liberal MP or a Nat, you get four staff. If you’re a crossbench MP you get eight. That seems to me to be a bit out of whack. What Albo is saying here is that if your’e a crossbench MP you’ll get an extra member of staff, above what a Labor, Liberal or Nat will get. And we’ll put extra resourcing into the parliamentary library. That seems to me to be pretty fair.
—————-
I would tend to agree
BK
That was Anna from the Young Turks.
She is an excellent communicator.
BKsays:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 9:29 am
A good example of the difference between the US and Australia was on the front page of Adelaide’s Sunday Mail this morning. It was a photo of Premier Peter Malinauskas helping to chair off an old footballer after a game in a lowly grade of local footy. Malinauskas would have driven to the oval, played, had a shower with his teammates and driven home.
Could you imagine this happening with the governor of a US state?
_____________________
‘Picture supplied’ puts a whole new spin on the photo.
Get out of the way, I am chairing him off.
ItzaDream says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 9:40 am
Greg Sheridan a Labor stooge. Who knew.
He is at it again.
Good posts Jan 6, Jackol. Thanks.
* “Instead of legislation to resolve issues, desperation turns to SCOTUS to tweeze out absurdity from a meaningless document. ”
* “The courts cannot be your political battleground and retain any sense of objectivity or neutrality.”
Hmm. I need to think about how a constitution is interpreted in law, which in turn governs behaviour, and how politics emerges from that.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1447 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 12:14 am
Because Ukraine.
This is a seriously poor decision. I have always suspected Russia’s invasion was more about boosting the value of their fossil fuel reserves before the world could ramp up alternatives. If this seems too far-fetched, you may want to read the following …
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/13/climate/russia-oil-gas-record-revenue.html
And of course Australia, as another fossil fuel dealer, has benefited massively as well. At the cost of a few lousy Bushmasters. But note it’s only “Corporate Australia” who benefits, not “Australians”, who are in fact massively worse off.
Lol @ the comparisons
Matt Kean (NSW Liberal Party) looks like a mini Josh Frydenberg
BK @ #1488 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 8:24 am
Yes, deliberate gerrymandering and accidental.
It should be noted that the 2PP in QLD this federal election was ALP46-54LNP yet the left v right seats 8-22.
Could’ve done without the vision of SfM. I’ve been enjoying his complete absence from the media this past month.
I liked Amy’s rant about the housing crisis, in conjunction with this piece in The Guardian I guess.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/26/the-changing-face-of-homelessness-in-regional-nsw-im-working-but-everything-is-unaffordable
“BK
That was Anna from the Young Turks.
She is an excellent communicator.”
plus 100,000,000. And the TYT channel is an excellent non-partisan source of information.
I think the new federal government has done really well in its first weeks in office-although many of the actions in areas like childcare and its impact on labour markets, improvements to energy markets and emissions reductions, are going to take years to bear fruit. But the decision to slash staffing entitlements for cross-benchers, in my opinion, is an act of gross stupidity. What are they hoping to gain? The cost saving is absolutely trivial, relative to the budget and deficit problems they’ve inherited from the LNP. Does the government hope to get some political benefit by minimising the resources and capability of the cross-bench? Put yourself in the shoes of the cross-benchers. How would having your resources slashed by Labor make you feel about supporting Labor legislation?
This decision should just be reversed. Hopefully this decision hasn’t poisoned the longer-term relationship between Labor and the cross-bench. Given the direction voting behaviour in Australia is going, future Labor governments may well need to rely on cross-bench support for their existence.
ItzaDream @ #1406 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:04 am
I read both of the special reports first thing this morning and it made me realise how lucky I am that my family has long and strong roots in this community so that we could be virtually gifted another place to live in when we had to move. Otherwise we would have been royally stuffed!
Confessions @ #1405 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:00 am
All I could think was…narcissist still posting about himself. Probably with an eye to a return to political prominence.
And I bet he had a videographer there for the whole game so they could catch his strike for the cameras and the subsequent social media post.
Scott @ #1403 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 9:48 am
He’s certainly splashing the cash, pre-election, like him.
So rorts should be allowed to continue so that the people benefitting from them don’t get upset?
I’m wondering if the Independents are worried about not having enough staff just to manage the poor optics of getting all huffy over perks before they even get down to actually sitting in parliament to do some work.
Labor didn’t do this without knowing what the reaction would be, as I’ve said before, this is a test for the XBs and because they aren’t a cohesive grouping, their messaging is a bit ‘off’.
FFS, even Roberts was on the Box complaining about not being able to give proper attention to legislation! I’ll bet he doesn’t even read it before voting NO.
The Labor spokespeople have quietly stated the reasons, the media have generally published this, time will move on. Calculated and effective strategy to publicise the cross bench and collect some ‘useful’ sound bites for ‘Ron to help in the ‘negotiation’ phase.
laughtong @ #1397 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 9:41 am
Me too. And I hope this prompts a re-think by the noisy X Benchers.
Coathanger futures have gone through the roof thanks to SCOTUS.
zoomster says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 9:02 am
“Husband and son have just tested positive, I’m negative…but obviously it’s coming for me…”
Best wishes for you all and hope you don’t get a bad dose.
Confessions says:
“… the flyover states, who have the most draconian abortion laws …”
Minnesota an honourable exception, if reports today are a guide.
zoomster @ #1532 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:13 am
The crossbenchers didn’t think it was a rort – they thought it helped them do the job they were elected to do.
But whether you think it is a rort or not, mugging the crossbench for a few bucks is the type of political ineptitude that only Labor seems able to achieve.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/furious-crossbench-senators-threaten-to-vote-against-labor-legislation-after-staff-cuts-20220625-p5awjb.html
BK says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 10:16 am
Coathanger futures have gone through the roof thanks to SCOTUS.
-1
America, a very broken country with a very broken system. And just as sadly, so many Americans don’t even realise it.
Good morning all. Thank you, BK. Best wishes with the Covid in your family, Zoomster.
What an amazing Insiders this morning!
For once it had more than a healthy dose of rational policy debate.
Speer’s attempts at gotchas looked somewhat pathetic.
Chalmers was excellent in response.
It is an historic Insiders because it is the very first time that I have seen the Xbenchers skewered by the commentariat in the media. To date they have had a dream run. Their policy promises have been utopian, vague, uncosted and unbudgeted. Their followers are starry-eyed, to say the least.
Now for reality! Sheridan nailed Morrison’s gift of four advisors as ‘lame brained’ and ‘small ‘c’ corruption’. The greedy and pretentious Xbench snouters had MORE advisory staff than Shadow Ministers. Pocock has gotten into bed with Hanson and Roberts on this issue in his first public foray.
Those who think that the Xbenchers are NOT in competition with Labor would be confused by Pocock bedding down with Hanson and Robert. They might be even more confused by Steggall’s public interventions since the election. The new Speaker MUST be a woman she has directed. The three staffers she got off the back of a dirty Morrison/Kelly deal are ‘in tears’ because they are going to have to be sacked. Albanese is ‘WORSE’ than Morrison.
And so it goes.
Boerwar @ #1541 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:24 am
It continues to astonish me that so many people think “Independent” means you must secretly be Labor supporters.
So…..think Clare addressed the issue of MP staffing pretty well today.
Teals and Indies are complaining about getting 1 more staff allocated, in a fairly highly paid level, than ALP, Lib or Nat members get allocated. Sad for them that the Morrison era of spreading the pork (does that make it pulled pork??) is ended but things tend to move on when there is a change in Govt.
Yup, ALP members will be able to work together and share staff from time to time on certain issues. but Teals and Indies can do that as well, but may be reluctant too if they aren’t sure they are all on the same page on an issue. Hey…..price you pay for being an Indie.
Suspect in a week the only people still squealing will be PHON as they are the really stupid ones in parliament….or maybe the new UAP guy as well. Lol! He probably expected to be able to hand out 8 paid positions to Clive nominees and now only gets 5. Oh!!! The Humanity!!!! 🙁
The independents have rejected the party system.
The party system is partly there so that people can pool their resources to be more effective.
There’s nothing stopping the indies pooling their resources.
If you want to operate outside the party system, that has consequences.
The establishment and its supporters are clearly terrified of the Independent threat so attacking the ability to properly scrutinise establishment legislation is the order of the day.
Voters will see this through these attacks and react accordingly at future elections.
Re the Teals, especially. A good point, wrt this staffing bellyache, was made on Insiders that maybe they should get creative and pool their staffing resources in order to get across leg, amendments and stakeholder engagement?
Everyone is missing the point of the staffers reductions. It will force the. Cross benchers to work together and maybe lead them to form a party. It’s a clever attack on the libs
Austerity Albo’s attack on the crossbench is clearly a hostile political act, which follows the same unnecessary hostile pattern of acts of the Morrison Govt when dealing with regional counterparts.
Baffling politics.
Undoubtedly!
Yes, today was a good Insiders, despite my hesitation about the panel.
Does anyone know who Sean Kelly was a staffer to?