Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
Morning all. Delurking for a moment because I have to say, I am getting sick of hearing from the Indies and their whining about the lowered staffing Albo has put forward. Thankfully, this will blow over in a few days.
Zoomster makes a very good point. If you reject the party system, and the benefits it gives you, then you can’t complain about that having consequences. I don’t see how people who haven’t even sat in Parliament yet can be complaining about their staffing levels either. Not like they’ve employed anyone as yet.
I see two possible options for the Indies going forward. Their either pool their resources, or (and maybe someone else can answer this for me) but if they’re being offered one staffer at the senior level, can they instead employ two staffers at a junior level instead for the same salary?
But to just have them whining that they feel they deserve so many people because of how important their work is. And get more than Libs or Labor.
And to say you’re just gonna block all legislation is sure to go down well with the voting public, I am sure. Yeah let’s all go back to another election because people didn’t get what they wanted.
Confessions @ #1429 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:36 am
Julia Gillard. And one other, I think.
imacca @ #1543 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:30 am
Think of it as the price we are willing to pay to have Independents in parliament. If you are a member of a party you generally don’t need to analyze – or in most cases even read – the legislation you vote for. You certainly don’t have to develop any. The party tells you what to do and how to vote, and you do so. The party which is funded by donations from sources such as the fossil-fuel cartel.
Independents don’t have that option. That’s why we elect them.
Sean Kelly was also an advisor to Kevin Rudd. I remember running into him a few times in Rudd’s electorate office when I was volunteering on the 2013 campaign.
But to just have them whining that they feel they deserve so many people because of how important their work is. And get more than Libs or Labor.
They do represent the seats of those with a similar mindset. 😉
Rex Douglas @ #1427 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:35 am
BS comment. Which pays no heed to the extensive explanations presented today. Just so it can continue to push the barrow along. Pa-thetic.
south @ #1426 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:34 am
It’s also a fatherly move by ‘The Parliamentarian’, as Albanese was described on Insiders today.
‘C’mon kids, you’ll work better together as a collective’. 🙂
Labor have recklessly shot themselves in foot.
Thanks. I was trying to gauge how old he is, so he must’ve been quite young when working for Rudd/Gillard.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 10:46 am
south @ #1426 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:34 am
Everyone is missing the point of the staffers reductions. It will force the. Cross benchers to work together and maybe lead them to form a party. It’s a clever attack on the libs
It’s also a fatherly move by ‘The Parliamentarian’, as Albanese was described on Insiders today.
‘C’mon kids, you’ll work better together as a collective’.
Exactly, there was so much attention went the way of the indies during the election they believe they are sprinkled with fairy dust and everyone should be falling over themselves to strew their path with rose petals.
They are now entering parliament, not for the faint-hearted, and the realities of being in opposition (they are not in government) are just coming home to them.
Albo has given them a reality check and their reactions are out there for all to see. Wait till they see how hard it will be to get re-elected when you are seen as a self-serving prat without a safe seat margin.
“Independents don’t have that option. That’s why we elect them.”
Clearly then the current crop of independents are pretty poor by the benchmark of the class of 2010: all that legislation proposed – and passed – by the hung parliament with the Indies rubbing by with only one extra political advisor: which I again stress is on top of access to the Parliamentary Budget Office, the legislation drafting gurus in the Parliamentary Counsel’s office, library research staff. Not to mention the ability to ask unlimited questions on notice, question public servants in the various committees and meet with DLOs and PLOs.
Between them Turnbull and Morrison have made the cross bench … soft. Lazy and not match fit.
Shame on them.
“Labor have recklessly shot themselves in foot.”
Good on Albo for calling out these rent seekers.
Time for them to step up to the mark.
If one extra staffer was good enough for the likes of Oakshott and Windsor to get their head around the reformist legislation of the Gillard government, it should be a walk in the park for a paediatric brain surgeon now.
Rex Douglas @ #1439 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:50 am
What a misplaced sense of entitlement from someone I expected better of. Wants more staff than a Shadow Minister!?! Try and cope with less, Mon. Like the rest of us at the moment.
I’m expecting a backdown from Alabanese, with staffing levels for the crossbenchers to be increased.
He best right the wrong and repair the damaged relationship.
In a parliament that requires co-operation to effective, Labor acting as high and mighty dictators will NOT get the job done.
There is time for Albanese get things back on track. I expect to see a re-calibration of these staffing arrangements.
“He best right the wrong …”
Let me get this right: Rexy actually thinks that Turnbull and Morrison’s egregious hung parliament bribes to the cross bench was a valid use of tax payers money?
Rex your forgetting that Albo has a majority. The xbenchers have read their own pr and think they are critical. They are not.
It’s time to do work. No more performative politics.
This is a bigger test for the xbenchers thank Albo. They are looking spoiled right now.
@Confessions
Yeah, like most of the people who worked with Rudd around that time, they were all 20 somethings. And young 20 somethings. It was part of the appeal of volunteering for him. You felt like you were in the employ of a rock star legend. 🙂
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 10:46 am
south @ #1426 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:34 am
Everyone is missing the point of the staffers reductions. It will force the. Cross benchers to work together and maybe lead them to form a party. It’s a clever attack on the libs
It’s also a fatherly move by ‘The Parliamentarian’, as Albanese was described on Insiders today.
‘C’mon kids, you’ll work better together as a collective’.
____________________
It was a fatherly move. Fred West style.
“In a parliament that requires co-operation to effective, Labor acting as high and mighty dictators will NOT get the job done.”
So Albo proposing some status quo anti – back to the effective arrangements of the 2010 parliament – makes him a dictator?
Riiiight.
Nath also thinks the egregious Turnbull and Morrison bribes is a valid use of tax payers money as well. …
Storm in a teacup. Though also needlessly antagonistic for minimal savings. Doesn’t even cover adding one new flagpole to a bridge, apparently.
But the real mistake is letting the media control the narrative. A lesser mistake is angering the indies. Labor
wantsshould want them onside, with the Coalition friendless and alone.In terms of rorts and waste there are so many other, larger targets to go after that if that’s the explanation then Labor is either incompetent at targeting or offering up a post-hoc explanation with little semblance to reality.
It didn’t take long for Labor and its stooges to get on a ridiculous and unproductive power trip.
Thank goodness that many more seemingly sensible crossbench mp’s have been elected to rein in these ego’s.
“Storm in a teacup. Though also needlessly antagonistic for minimal savings.”
Perhaps this is actually strategic: a message to the cross bench that ‘working cooperatively’ with the Indies does not equate to rolling out the pork to every one of their whims. Which was the LNP default position. Especially Morrison’s MO.
What a breath of fresh air THAT would be.
Surely YOU would agree?
With a 32% primary vote, this is no time for Labor to get all high and mighty acting as dictators.
Rex is prancing his own default reflect … ‘Labor stooges’.
Tell me Rex: why exactly was the Turnbull/Morrison bribes to the cross bench good policy?
I notice you have never adrdressed that.
Further, you might want to explain how exactly the cross bench coped in 2010-13 with only one extra staffer in a genuine hung parliament … and one that actually passed a lot of reformist stuff?
Come on Rex: tell us all … or is ‘Labor stooges’ all you got to contribute?
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:08 am
Nath also thinks the egregious Turnbull and Morrison bribes is a valid use of tax payers money as well.
______________
Andrew Earlwood, budget repair specialist.
“With a 32% primary vote, this is no time for Labor to get all high and mighty acting as dictators.”
Again with the dictator slur: how exactly is reducing staffing levels to pre Turnbull/Morrison porking levels the actions of a dictator?
Come on Rexy: tell us all: we are just dying to know.
nath
I thought you liked Albo.
As critical as I am of him, I’d never compare him to Fred West.
That’s really low of you.
“Andrew Earlwood, budget repair specialist.”
Piss poor attempt at deflection.
Perhaps this is strategic: setting a higher standard in dealing with the cross bench than simply “how much pork would like to pass out legislation” which was the MO of the previous government. No?
A very well stated, factual reaction to the US Supreme Court decision.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8w5tH902MFw
I’d refer you to the Jenkins Report which points out that parliament has a poor work culture with a history of burnout.
I’d expect given you’re a part of a progressive party you’d recognize that work conditions can always be better.
The report also recommends that staffing levels be raised. The LNP ignored the report and were lambasted for it. And we’re expected to not hold the ALP to the same account?
I don’t think it will take long before the crossbench forces Labor to pulls its head in and get down to business without these dictatorial ego trips.
Silly Labor.
zoomster says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:19 am
nath
I thought you liked Albo.
As critical as I am of him, I’d never compare him to Fred West.
That’s really low of you.
_________
I do like Albo. I wasn’t really comparing him to Fred West, it was a jocular comment. But it might be a banning event, good luck.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1574 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 11:12 am
Sure. But for that to work there would have to be loud public overtures to that effect, and not talk about ending rorts or cleaning up waste or whatever.
The message would need to be laser-focused on “Labor will work collaboratively with the crossbench, but that doesn’t mean we’re at their beck and call, or that we’ll provide them with resources they haven’t shown a need for. We’re more than happy to engage in a dialogue with crossbenchers, individually or as a group, to work out realistic staffing requirements appropriate to their actual needs; ball’s in their court”.
I’m sure CanDo Katy will be rolled out in the coming weeks to announce that crossbench staffing arrangements will be re-adjusted again.
The desperation of stooges to try to sell this as anything other than a mistake is very Comical Ali.
nath
Wow, paranoid much?
Rex Douglas @ #1467 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 11:25 am
Rex Douglas,
The Moderator has made a point of saying no ‘Turtle Bowen’. So, how about you quit the puerile ‘CanDo Katy’ crap as well?
Biltong
‘I’d refer you to the Jenkins Report which points out that parliament has a poor work culture with a history of burnout.
I’d expect given you’re a part of a progressive party you’d recognize that work conditions can always be better.’
In which case, increase the numbers for all parliamentarians, not just a few.
‘it was a jocular comment’
Yeah right. Can’t even own your own pathetic slurs.
An astute observation that the limiting of staffers may push the Teals to work more formally as a bloc. Not sure that is a good outcome for Labor.
A socially progressive and economically centre-right party could cut into both Lib and Lab voting blocs.
Rex Douglas @ #1464 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 11:23 am
Certainly sounds like it’s the self-entitled X bench that are behaving in a dictatorial fashion, actually.
‘I’ll throw my rattle out of the cot unless I get my way!’ 🙄
Bryon
It might actually work better for their constituents.
Working as a bloc would give them more clout.
Bryon @ #1473 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 11:29 am
They’re not getting off to the best of starts though. Sounding more like Inner City Socialists to rival the Agrarian Socialists in the Nationals.
@ Rex
Hey mate, I always make a point of reading your posts, as I have done today. Sure, don’t always agree but this is PB.
But today, you’ve gone AWOL over the staffing brouhaha. To make outlandish comments about Labor and its stooges, its perceived arrogance and politicking ,after what we as a nation have endured for 9 years, is absolute rubbish. I’ll call it pitiful too.
There will be time for legitimate and reasonable criticism of this Government over the term- for sure.
But I wonder, now, whether all those years of divisiveness, arrogance and pettiness since 2013 have scarred you, as it has for many of us. Your comments were just over the top.
Need a break? Come up to sunny Qld. Our winter is just stunning.
zoomster says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:26 am
nath
Wow, paranoid much?
___________
So I am low and paranoid? Someone is having a bad morning!
..Sandman says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 9:31 am
Thanks BK
That SMH story on Lambie and Pocock threatening to reject legislation over a cut in cross bench staffing looks like it has kicked up strong reactions from cross bench members in the HOR and the Senate.
It might make sense to Labor, but the political fall out might not be worth the trouble….’
——————————-
That is to say, let’s get back to Morrison’s porking small ‘c’ corruption.
It is almost as if Albanese has provided an opportunity for the Xbenchers to demonstrate their principled approach to policy making in a clever sting operation.
Pocock has joined Hanson in threatening to block legislation. How ignoble is that?
Steggall has asserted that Albanese is worse than Morrison. How fatuous is that?
The House Xbenchers are kibitzing like they really were a party after all. How independent is that?
They have universally shown that they are greedy for patronage. How sordid is that?
We are not talking peanuts here.
16 Xbenchers in the House = 5 in the Senate times four advisors times four electorate staff plus staffing oncosts plus travel plus LAFH alloances plus overtime adds up to around $50,000,000 over three years.
Oliver Sutton says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 10:21 am
in response to Confessions:
“… the flyover states, who have the most draconian abortion laws …”
Minnesota an honourable exception, if reports today are a guide.
__________________________________
Also Illinois, another midwest state.
Colorado and New Mexico also have legalised abortion.
I can’t see what the problem is regarding staff for the Independents. There are 12 in the Reps., that is 12 advisors, now if they work together the Independents will have 12 staff to share and work with as mostly they will be looking for the same information. Why do they need 48 staff to search for the same information they will all be getting in each other’s way. They can work together and get a better result.