Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

The first published voting intention poll since the election credits both major parties with higher primary votes than they recorded last month, for one reason or another.

Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.

The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.

This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,923 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. The very first shark the Xbenchers came to, they jumped it.

    Albanese is offering them MORE than he is offering Labor backbench MPs.

    But that is not good enough.

    I thought the Teals were all about ending the Age of Entitlement?

    The Xbenchers should apologize to their voters.

    Getting into bed with Hanson and Roberts is NOT why I gave Pocock my second pref in the ACT Senate elections.

  2. zoomster says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:35 am

    nath

    Yes, and it’s not me.
    _____
    If making a joke about Albo making a ‘fatherly’ move ala Fred West is really low. I wonder what alleging he is part of a corrupt Lebanese cartel is?

  3. Gettysburg1863, thanks for reading and we’ll agree to disagree.

    Re holidays, the great state of WA is more appealing than now than Qld.

  4. I trust that A_E noted Sheridan’s comments on Insiders this morning (in the context of Albanese’s visit to Macron) about the necessity for six to eight conventional subs to fill the nuclear powered boats deliver ‘startrek’ time table?

  5. So, P1 and Rex are on the same page about approving the Xbenchers’ small ‘c’ corruption.

    Now THAT is one for the books.

  6. We are lucky not to live in the USA, where rights are now being eroded on an almost daily basis despite their much vaunted “Bill of Rights”. How fortunate we are to live in a country where (according to many PB posters) the most contentious issue is the number of advisors an independent politician is granted.

    That was sarcasm, by the way. Obviously Australia has many problems. It would be wise not to be sidetracked by the whining of a few independents, who are all now earning parliamentary salaries most of us could only dream of. It seems ludicrous to assign four advisors to someone like Hanson, who will automatically vote NO on every bill.

  7. It seems ludicrous to assign four advisors to someone like Hanson, who will automatically vote NO on every bill.
    _______
    There are other types of advisors that would be of immense help to Hanson.

  8. ‘BK says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:49 am

    It seems ludicrous to assign four advisors to someone like Hanson, who will automatically vote NO on every bill.
    _______
    There are other types of advisors that would be of immense help to Hanson.’
    ======================
    LOL. I would be happy to give her some high quality free advice.

  9. zoomster says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:41 am

    nath

    Something I apologised for doing. Haven’t noticed you doing the same.
    __________
    What should I apologise for? Having a sense of humour, clearing the table?

  10. This is interesting …

    https://michaelwest.com.au/revealed-australias-true-emissions-concealed-corporates-double-count-household-rooftop-solar/

    Like me, some probably suspected the astonishing claims made for rooftop solar – including by people here on PB – were most likely a distortion of the truth, but didn’t realize exactly how distorted.

    Now we know …

    “This a significant emissions reduction subsidy flowing from those who have chosen to install rooftop solar to big corporations who should not be receiving this double counted claim.

    The Department officials agree that the double-counting of rooftop solar “dilutes” Australia’s count of emissions in the energy sector.

    “As far as we are aware, no one actually knows how much small solar systems are injecting into the grid. Behind the meter is not considered off-grid,” they said.


  11. nathsays:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:26 am
    The desperation of stooges to try to sell this as anything other than a mistake is very Comical Ali.

    nath
    How are you able to reconcile the fact that you are transgender supporter and the Victorian Greens supporter but have nothing to say about Victorian Greens Transgender phobia.
    Ladies and gentlemen
    We have a winner in nath as best stooge of PB. 🙂

  12. zoomster says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:56 am

    nath

    Likening someone -really anybody – to Fred West.
    ____________
    In what way did I liken Albo to Fred West?

  13. Sandman says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 9:41 am
    “Corona can hang around for a while after you get “better” and test negative. I got it a month ago and I’m still having nanny naps for three hours during the day; maybe cause I am old fart but yeah don’t push too hard after the first 10 days, it can drain you quickly.”

    I too will keep your advice in mind for when the inevitable happens. At least then I’ll have an excuse for my nana-nap (chuckles).


  14. Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:00 am
    I’m expecting a backdown from Alabanese, with staffing levels for the crossbenchers to be increased.

    He best right the wrong and repair the damaged relationship.

    As Scott says
    LOL Rex. 🙂

    I can’t believe sometime ago someone clubbed with Rex.

  15. laughtong says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 9:41 am
    Back to the staffers debate quickly

    From the Guardian
    Clare told Sky News:

    If you’re a Labor MP, or Liberal MP or a Nat, you get four staff. If you’re a crossbench MP you get eight. That seems to me to be a bit out of whack. What Albo is saying here is that if your’e a crossbench MP you’ll get an extra member of staff, above what a Labor, Liberal or Nat will get. And we’ll put extra resourcing into the parliamentary library. That seems to me to be pretty fair.
    —————-
    “I would tend to agree”

    That seems like a much clearer articulation of the issue. I suspect some of the confusion could’ve been avoided if this had been identified and promulgated earlier.

  16. zoomster says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 12:08 pm

    nath

    What a coward you are.
    ________
    So I am low, paranoid and a coward?

    I just wish you would explain to me how I likened Albo to Fred West? That’s because it didn’t happen. I was riffing on C@t use of ‘fatherly’ in relation to the stripping of the advisors. I wasn’t likening them at all. A poor effort this morning. E-

  17. Maybe Insiders is worth watching, again? Regarding Sean Kelly. I’ve been following his ideas for about 12 months. If anyone is interested:

    Sean Kelly
    @mrseankelly
    weekly columnist at The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, author of The Game: A Portrait of Scott Morrison, former adviser to two Labor Prime Ministers
    https://twitter.com/mrseankelly

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/by/sean-kelly-h1d26a

    “The Game: A Portrait of Scott Morrison” – Sean Kelly
    https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/game


  18. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:08 am
    Nath also thinks the egregious Turnbull and Morrison bribes is a valid use of tax payers money as well. …

    But nath subsidising car manufacturing of car making in Australia is waste of Tax payers money although it sustained manufacturing and technological jobs in Australia and eventhough subsidising car manufacturing is done all over the world including US of A.

  19. Cronus and Sandman

    ‘Cronus says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 12:07 pm

    Sandman says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 9:41 am
    “Corona can hang around for a while after you get “better” and test negative. I got it a month ago and I’m still having nanny naps for three hours during the day; maybe cause I am old fart but yeah don’t push too hard after the first 10 days, it can drain you quickly.”

    I too will keep your advice in mind for when the inevitable happens. At least then I’ll have an excuse for my nana-nap (chuckles).’
    =============================
    The Long Covid Institute or some such name (attached to St Vincent’s in Sydney, apparently) is tracking 128 Covid patients. They were all Alpha strain infectees. After 12 months ALL of them showed some form of cognitive decline. Some of this decline was so tiny and so-fine grained that the sufferers were unaware of it. A quarter, after 12 months, continued to show significant impacts.

    I don’t know how the cohort was chosen.

    https://www.svhs.org.au/research-education/participating-in-research-trials/adapt-study

  20. Put Scommo back in the driver’s seat, allocate as many advisers pro rata as Scommo had during his stay as the head honcho, everyone can be important doing nothing besides grandiose media statements and cross your collective fingers.
    99.9% of voters are quite happy to have their nose ring tugged by misinfomation and bullshit tossed off by the wannabe players.
    The independents will come down to earth when ensconced in the big house and realize as per the remnant LNP government, they are bit players.
    The media tonsil toddlers could also do with some reminders.
    Barnaby can run the parliamentary introduction school and all’s good.


  21. zoomstersays:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:19 am
    nath

    I thought you liked Albo.

    As critical as I am of him, I’d never compare him to Fred West.

    That’s really low of you.

    nath actions speak louder than words. 🙂

  22. I see that the Chinese Ambassador has been authorized by Xi to tell the Australian people that China’s Swingeing Trade Punishments were NOT a matter of Xi and his ChiCommie state policy but a spontaneous decision on the part of the consumer peace-loving people of China.

    This announcement was made along with a call for Australia to take ‘concrete steps’ towards a reset of the China/Australian relationship.

    The fundamental existential problem for Australia remains unsorted. This might be termed the “Riding the Two Hegemons Elephants Simultaneously Policy”. Or maybe “Grabbing the Tails of Two Hegemon Tigers at the Same Time Policy.”

    But these sort of small diplomatic dance steps are a small but hopeful sign that the day-to-day diplomatic dance might be moving towards a more rational, calm and considered daily footing.

  23. Ven @ #1505 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 12:14 pm


    Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:08 am
    Nath also thinks the egregious Turnbull and Morrison bribes is a valid use of tax payers money as well. …

    But nath subsidising car manufacturing of car making in Australia is waste of Tax payers money although it sustained manufacturing and technological jobs in Australia and eventhough subsidising car manufacturing is done all over the world including US of A.

    Well, nath IS all about the political over the practical.


  24. Gettysburg1863says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 11:32 am
    @ Rex
    Hey mate, I always make a point of reading your posts, as I have done today. Sure, don’t always agree but this is PB.
    But today, you’ve gone AWOL over the staffing brouhaha. To make outlandish comments about Labor and its stooges, its perceived arrogance and politicking ,after what we as a nation have endured for 9 years, is absolute rubbish. I’ll call it pitiful too.
    There will be time for legitimate and reasonable criticism of this Government over the term- for sure.
    But I wonder, now, whether all those years of divisiveness, arrogance and pettiness since 2013 have scarred you, as it has for many of us. Your comments were just over the top.
    Need a break? Come up to sunny Qld. Our winter is just stunning.

    As Keating once said
    Rex went Tropo. 🙂

  25. CC
    Good to see you back posting.

    The make up of congress isn’t the cause of America’s problem because it has worked well in the past but it does need a AEC style body to draw electoral boundaries and oversee elections.

  26. So, what is the appropriate level of staffing for non-Party aligned MPs?

    The book says 4-5 electoral office staff.

    Gillard added an advisor, Turnbull added two more and finally Morrison added another.

    What were the justification for any of these changes?

    It would seem that a review of staffing entitlements is required to actually determine the appropriate level.

  27. Confessions @ #1385 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 9:29 am

    Why is Speers wasting time asking Chalmers about nominations to the RBA board a year from now? Esp when there are other pressing matters to ask him about.

    Because two vacancies come up in a month or so. Lowe’s contract is the one that is up next year. I got a sense from Chalmers that his contract is not going to be renewed too.

  28. America, removes women’s rights and scared to stand up to the gun lobby.
    Not really Land of the Free and Home of the Brave.

  29. Following the overturning of terra nullius, native title legislation ensued. Following the SCOTUS’s ’73 decision in Roe -v-Wade, at some point where the Democrats controlled the Congress and the WH, abortion rights should’ve been legislatively enshrined.

    That’s not to suggest that it would’ve not been subject to challenge but it certainly would have been far harder to overturn than finding in the US Constitution an implied right to privacy, particularly where the majority of the Supreme Court justices are constitutional originalists, meaning they interpret the US Constitution in the same way as they do the Bible.

  30. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 12:15 pm
    Cronus and Sandman

    ‘Cronus says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 12:07 pm

    Sandman says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 9:41 am
    “Corona can hang around for a while after you get “better” and test negative. I got it a month ago and I’m still having nanny naps for three hours during the day; maybe cause I am old fart but yeah don’t push too hard after the first 10 days, it can drain you quickly.”

    I too will keep your advice in mind for when the inevitable happens. At least then I’ll have an excuse for my nana-nap (chuckles).’
    =============================
    “The Long Covid Institute or some such name (attached to St Vincent’s in Sydney, apparently) is tracking 128 Covid patients. They were all Alpha strain infectees. After 12 months ALL of them showed some form of cognitive decline. Some of this decline was so tiny and so-fine grained that the sufferers were unaware of it. A quarter, after 12 months, continued to show significant impacts.

    I don’t know how the cohort was chosen.”

    Thanks for that, although it’s not very encouraging it’s certainly better to have the facts about the impact, short and long term.

    https://www.svhs.org.au/research-education/participating-in-research-trials/adapt-study

  31. C@tmomma @ #1610 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 12:30 pm

    Cronus @ #1515 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 12:27 pm

    America, removes women’s rights and scared to stand up to the gun lobby.
    Not really Land of the Free and Home of the Brave.

    To continue the gun metaphor, I think the Supreme Court has shot itself in the foot, bringing down two outrageous decisions BEFORE the Mid Terms.

    2022 has certainly become a contentious year in US politics. Add in the J6C hearings, and potential for high level indictments to follow, and there’s going to be a lot of noise in the next few months. If I’m to draw any hope from the situation, what happened in Australia gives me that hope. The political themes are similar.

  32. nath @ #1450 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 11:07 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 10:46 am

    south @ #1426 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 10:34 am

    Everyone is missing the point of the staffers reductions. It will force the. Cross benchers to work together and maybe lead them to form a party. It’s a clever attack on the libs

    It’s also a fatherly move by ‘The Parliamentarian’, as Albanese was described on Insiders today.

    ‘C’mon kids, you’ll work better together as a collective’.
    ____________________
    It was a fatherly move. Fred West style.

    Yep. Disgusting allusion about the Prime Minister. And NOT funny. At all. Though the coward’s default excuse for it was attempted.

  33. Maybe Albo has followed Dan Andrews in reducing the bag limit in the 2022 duck hunting season (hunters may take 4 birds per day).
    And species permitted to be hunted include TEAL and wood duck!
    PB hunters are reminded to hunt responsibly and lead shot is not permitted.

  34. zoomster says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 12:29 pm

    nath

    So you can now go the ‘if anything I said has offended anyone, that was not my intent and I apologise’ route.
    _________________
    No thanks. Quite happy with it as it is.

  35. zoomster says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 12:43 pm

    nath

    As I said, the difference between you and me is that when I make a mistake, I apologise for it.
    _______
    I don’t think it was a mistake. I did not compare Albo to Fred West. I have a far higher opinion of Albo than I do of Fred West.


  36. Cronussays:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 12:27 pm
    America, removes women’s rights and scared to stand up to the gun lobby.
    Not really Land of the Free and Home of the Brave.

    Cronus
    USA were always good at marketing and Sales pitch. That is the reason they were able to attract some great talent to their shores. Great minds migrated to USA because they thought it was a great place to live and work and that impression was created by USA by great marketing and sales pitch. Morrison used that same technique to succeed in his life.
    But the thing is the uglies in USA were always hiding in plain sight bidding their time. Trump gave them opportunity to come out in open and make everyone dance to their ugly evil tune.

  37. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 12:30 pm
    Cronus @ #1515 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 12:27 pm

    America, removes women’s rights and scared to stand up to the gun lobby.
    Not really Land of the Free and Home of the Brave.
    “To continue the gun metaphor, I think the Supreme Court has shot itself in the foot, bringing down two outrageous decisions BEFORE the Mid Terms.”

    It has certainly been one heck of an activist court …… wait a minute.
    I do wonder about the ramifications, whether this is simply the tin edge of the wedge and how/if Americans are going to respond to these decisions. If things were volatile before 2022, the seeds have certainly now been sown for a truly American febrile society.

    I don’t think this will be merely a repeat of the 1960s attempts to gain rights. In the Trump era (he might still run again and may even be re-elected, I no longer rule any possibility out), the environment is ripe for the use of violence and the abuse of police and military forces to prevent attempts to regain these rights. The work of the J6 committee is now more important than ever.

  38. winzor is probaly right in a way how ever he grand stands as much as bandt has not been in parliament foor six years do not understand whiy the independent mps and senaters get moor staffers then a shadow minister any way would not a shadow minister have moor responsibility they realy should have three staff Rex usualy respect your opinions but by your over the top reaction maybbi your one of the cros benchers effected i thought the liberals were all about cutting waisteful spending and te independents wanted to change the system but are now complaining about ending pork bariling which they campaigned on

  39. Roe v Wade goes to Australia’s obsession with America because South Korea elected a government that ran on a policy of dismantling gender equality but no attention was given to that.

  40. the so called teels are just as much a threat to labor as they are to liberals the liberals basickly ran Dai le as a sake independent in fowler which as she was exbelled ran as an independent howerver backed by local mayor carbone x labor former tripodie friend and murdock and hadley bet she will be readmited to liberalsshe along with the liberals saidindependents can not achieve any thing as there just on cros bench not in government and just grand stand if they realy believed this whiy do they need moor staff then a shadow minister

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