Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
Mexicanbeemer @ #1530 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 12:54 pm
Maybe because I don’t follow South Korean politics and I didn’t know that? 😀
I did hear they elected a Populist Conservative, though. So I guess that’s the upshot.
C@T
Exactly because our media pretty much ignored the South Korean election.
interesting they went so hard on kenearly getting the job because of tripodi as he helpt carbone when labor on cowncil emma and reaze also backt buy that group never copt that backage there seems to be sexizm in the media where female leaders are judged harsher gillard comes to mind peretett has largily escaped i could only emagin the outrage from Hadley and murdock if kenearlyor some one was given the trade comitioner but as its barilarow its no big deal
DENMARK – Analysis of data from 1 million people.
The risk of Alzheimer’s after a SarsCov2 infection is 350%.
For Parkinson’s 260%, stroke 270% and a 480% risk of bleeding in the brain.
I’m trying to watch Insiders on iview. Every few minutes it freezes with an error and I have to wait for another few minutes. Is anyone else suffering with this? This is the message I get to see instead of the video stream.
The current bench of the US Supreme Court is not activist – far from it! Judicial activism is reading into say a paramount Act, such as the US Constitution, implied rights that aren’t to be found in it. In a technical legal sense, the SCOTUS got both recent contentious cases right. As for the morality of their decisions, that’s an entirely different argument.
i do not understand our leaders obsetion with the us they have not one any wars since wold war 2 had heavy losis in vietnam afganistan and iraq is not overly stable yet were told that america is this supper power and we have to reliy on them to keep us safe even though they are terible at winning wars any way our leaders never seem to learn marless and labor stick with this subbs deal was is decades away and will be out of date buy 2040
There is something about our media’s obsession because the otherday channel 7 told viewers that American 5 years olds can now get vaccine jabs.
Gillard added an advisor, Turnbull added two more and finally Morrison added another.
What were the justification for any of these changes?
It would seem that a review of staffing entitlements is required to actually determine the appropriate level.
The Liberals have a real hide if they join with the crossbenchers and complain about reducing crossbenchers advisers. They bang on about a belief in ‘small government’ and ‘limited government’ and then when Labor does something which saves on bureaucracy and costs they then suddenly say ‘Oh no you can’t do that’.
On the cut to the crossbench advisors, some fairly random thoughts:
I still can’t say whether on-balance it’s a good/bad/indifferent move. I get the arguments that independents do have a harder time getting on top of a legislative program, but whether that’s worth 1 extra advisor or 4 or something else I have no feel for or strong opinion on. Of course for those independents with an established team having to cut is going to be hard, but … that’s not a reason not to do it IMO. Clearly the budgetary impact of this by itself is largely symbolic rather than substantive, so I don’t really buy that as an argument in favour either.
As to the politics: I think foremost this is tying what is being foreshadowed as some big cuts in the October budget to some “pain shared” message – the public will suffer, but some Canberra insiders will get laid off as well. It would help if there is some pain to be shared around the ALP MPs and Senators, but I guess we’ll see on that. Kicking Canberra and political staffers never goes down badly in the broader electorate IMO.
As to the crossbench – in the House the Teals, Wilkie, Katter et al are not of numerical significance and can mostly be ignored, although there are broader, long-term political benefits in cultivating relationships there, but that’s a separate issue.
The Senate is the only place grievances could cause an issue for the government in the short term, and I don’t see Pocock following through on trying to leverage his vote on the staffer issue – he was elected to be a principled non-party player, and the stuff that matters in terms of FICAC, climate change, etc, I imagine his vote can be relied upon regardless. Lambie and friend may be a different story, but I suspect after the heat has gone out of this issue they can be talked to. It’s not like there’s any duplicity here from the government – they’ve been clear and up front about it, so apart from a bit of residual resentment I don’t think it will harm their long term relationship.
Is it worth the various risks? I don’t know. The government face a lot of challenges, and being able to put the right spin on their October budget is going to be crucial. The public will wear short term pain if it is shared around and if there is a credible positive future … if this kind of symbolic gesture helps sell that, then it’s worth it.
In terms of politics it also puts some distance between the government and the crossbench which may be useful – I don’t know if it’s an actual consideration in terms of this announcement (I suspect it’s all just about finessing the budget optics), but being seen to be a bit harsh with the independents on this matter may make it easier to work with them as necessary down the track without either side being seen to be “in the pocket” of the other.
Jefferson and Paine agreed with me.
South Korea:
“After narrowly winning a deeply contentious race, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol appears to be backtracking on a campaign pledge to abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family (MOGEF). While this is a positive development, it is certainly not an about-face from the new conservative administration, which has repeatedly expressed skepticism about the existence of persistent and structural discrimination against women in South Korea.”
Also South Korea:
“6 Major Projects 22 Implementation Strategies
1. Promote awareness and culture of gender equality
1. Combat gender discrimination in the mass media
… ”
Also South Korea:
“Abortion in South Korea was decriminalized, effective 2021, by a 2019 order of the Constitutional Court of Korea.
From 1953 through 2020, abortion was illegal in most circumstances, but illegal abortions were widespread and commonly performed at hospitals and clinics.[1] On April 11, 2019, the Constitutional Court ruled the abortion ban unconstitutional and ordered the law’s revision by the end of 2020.[2][3] Revisions to the law were proposed in October 2020, but not voted on by the deadline of 31 December 2020.[4]
The government of South Korea criminalized abortion in the 1953 Criminal Code in all circumstances. The law was amended by the Maternal and Child Health Law of 1973 to permit a physician to perform an abortion if the pregnant woman or her spouse has a certain hereditary or communicable diseases, if the pregnancy results from rape or incest, or if continuing the pregnancy would jeopardize the woman’s health. Any physician who violated the law could be punished by two years’ imprisonment. Self-induced abortions could be punished by a fine or imprisonment.[5][6]
The abortion law was not strongly enforced, especially during campaigns to lower South Korea’s high fertility rate in the 1970s and 1980s. As the fertility rate dropped in the 2000s, the government and anti-abortion campaigners turned their attention to illegal abortions[7][6] and the government stepped up enforcement of the abortion law in response.[8]”
Fanatics on the Illegitimate Supreme Court of the United States, making law for the whole united states (and I paraphrase):
Jail them for life, shit execute them if you want, if they get an abortion and you don’t need any exceptions for rape or incest or hell who cares about the life of the mother if that is at risk still try and force her to carry the baby to term. Oh and we are coming for your marriages and sex life took, if you are gay.
Definitely South Korea is the problem we should be studying.
yabbasays:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 1:12 pm
What would they know!
🙂
A few days ago we were talking about the standard battery sizes of EV’s in Oz. We were under-balling it to make large consolidated battery capacity counts, by saying 50KWh per car battery. As a data-point for this :
https://thedriven.io/2022/06/24/space-and-performance-or-v2l-and-price-we-compare-tesla-model-y-and-byd-atto-3/
The two lower-end variants of two types (2xTesla and 2xBWD) had four capacities between them, and they’re on sale later this year. 63, 83, 53, and 64. So even our under-balling it didn’t cover it. All of the battery capacities are above 50KWh. That isn’t going to go down, either. By the time half of our country vehicle fleet has migrated to EV’s, I would expect the average to be at least 75KWh, and probably closer to 100KWh. At 10 million cars (half the 20 million that exist today), 100KWh batteries would deliver 1000GWh. The current draw of the Oz grid is roughly 650GWh per day.
Ven says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 12:48 pm
”
Cronussays:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 12:27 pm
America, removes women’s rights and scared to stand up to the gun lobby.
Not really Land of the Free and Home of the Brave.
”
Cronus
“USA were always good at marketing and Sales pitch. That is the reason they were able to attract some great talent to their shores. Great minds migrated to USA because they thought it was a great place to live and work and that impression was created by USA by great marketing and sales pitch. Morrison used that same technique to succeed in his life.
But the thing is the uglies in USA were always hiding in plain sight bidding their time. Trump gave them opportunity to come out in open and make everyone dance to their ugly evil tune.”
Agreed, the USA has always hidden behind a veneer of Hollywood hope and Disney Land when in fact it has long been held together by the thinnest of threads that required only the right moment before it unwound. That moment may soon be here.
Australia’s politics is ugly but nowhere near as ugly and systemically corrupt as American politics. The use of Trump, religion, the courts and now women’s rights to divide the nation is absolutely abhorrent but I’m uncertain as to whether and how opponents will react.
WWP
I’m not saying we shouldn’t be talking about American politics but hours are being spent on an American court judgement as if it effects Australia but we give little attention to other country’s politics.
yabba:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 1:12 pm
Interesting quotes. I blame Billy Graham and those who followed him for the mess the US is now in, replete with God Botherers.
Aaron newton @ #1650 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 12:58 pm
Something which Labor – as well as the Labor partisans here on PB – clearly understand.
I think they also realize they have made a tactical blunder, but they don’t know how to correct it.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 1:04 pm
DENMARK – Analysis of data from 1 million people.
The risk of Alzheimer’s after a SarsCov2 infection is 350%.
For Parkinson’s 260%, stroke 270% and a 480% risk of bleeding in the brain.’
———————————–
If you have a link for this, I would appreciate it.
“WWP
I’m not saying we shouldn’t be talking about American politics but hours are being spent on an American court judgement as if it effects Australia but we give little attention to other country’s politics.”
A fair point but US politics does affect Australia, two of the major three parties consistently import the cultural war / cultural law rubbish from the USA. We are just lucky we are smart enough to avoid the worst of it.
Although our hate of Government and our minimising of the value and power of democracy, which is endemic here in Australia is a direct import.
How many Teal votes are necessary to pass legislation in the lower house? Zero you say?
No way do the independents need four specialist advisers. They are not US Senators. What about them thinking for themselves! They have plenty of electorate staff to do their core constituency service work.
Pi @ #1671 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 1:29 pm
Shame about the senate and those pesky minor parties and independents.
Democracy. What a nuisance.
Pisays:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 1:18 pm
Now you’re talking 🙂
Tesla has just announced grid back-up plan using home Powerwalls for their Texas energy network.
Can only be a matter of time before vehicle batteries are included.
Something which Labor – as well as the Labor partisans here on PB – clearly understand.
I think they also realize they have made a tactical blunder, but they don’t know how to correct it.
Nope. I’m totally happy with this- and if senate crossbenchers are going threaten to block legislation because of it then it shows they care more about themselves then the constituents.
The payroll is going to balloon massively by giving the crossbench an extra four staffers each. After the massive increase to the cross bench from the last federal election. Its fine to look the other way, but when Labor came to power it promised to look for savings and better use of resources.
Player One,
If David pocock throws a tantrum over staffers and wrecks a progressive governments mandated (77 is a mandate) agenda, he will feel the cold of Canberra very swiftly when he is not elected for a second term and then his name is mud in that town.
He should be asking for briefs on legislation and being a local to Canberra he’s better able to drive across town to use the services of the parliamentary library at ease.
It is refreshing that Australia decriminalized and entrenched abortion across the country in the last couple of years with minimal controversary. VAD and Marriage Equality is national now with a bit more ruction….but all done and dusted. Chaplains are coming out of schools.
The Teals saw a group of talented women flush men out of rusted-on Conservative seats.
We dont always follow the US in politics like many out there seem to think.
From last night…BK, Ven and others re…
https://twitter.com/MaddowBlog/status/1540550165861486593
___________
I think women should leave Gilead in droves. I’m not joking. The place is on the way to witch-hunts.
I’m also not joking when I think we should include ‘fear of persecution for exercise of reproductive rights’ in the criteria for refugees – then expand the refugee programme to about 2 million a year to cope with the influx.
AND we should either expand AUKUS to include France (careful where you put the F!) or scrub AUKUS in favour of a close strategic partnership with the French. The trajectory of Gilead is a potential danger to Australia’s national security.
‘tactical blunder’ = ‘continue with Morrison’s small ‘c’ corruption’.
I don’t know how Labor’s negotiations with the Xbenchers will pan out over the next three years.
But I do hope that the negotiations involve trade offs on policy….
…and not a continuation of the transactional vote buying that so badly compromised democracy under Morrison.
The fact that the Xbenchers are already talking about going on strike when it comes to casting their votes tells us more about the principles of the Xbenchers than anything else.
Boewar: COVID-19 positive patients at higher risk of developing neurodegenerative disorders, new study shows
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2022-06-covid-positive-patients-higher-neurodegenerative.html
Impressed by Chalmers comments on the RBA needing a more diverse board reflecting the desire for higher wages.
Signals a much needed balancing of so-called independent bodies in the government.
Torchbearer
When Victoria decriminalize abortion there was a campaign waged against it but it was a very localized campaign run by a small number of people and the Liberal opposition allowed a conscious vote and the Liberals won the next state election putting a hole through the lie that the Liberals need to go further to the right to win elections.
‘south says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 1:41 pm
Player One,
If David pocock throws a tantrum over staffers and wrecks a progressive governments mandated (77 is a mandate) agenda, he will feel the cold of Canberra very swiftly when he is not elected for a second term and then his name is mud in that town.
He should be asking for briefs on legislation and being a local to Canberra he’s better able to drive across town to use the services of the parliamentary library at ease.’
——————————-
My second Senate vote went to Pocock. My motivations were to get rid of Seselja and also to get someone who had a track record of principle behaviour.
Pocock’s very first public act of getting into bed with Hanson and Roberts and of threatening to withold his vote is, quite plainly, a rather sordid betrayal. And here we have the rub with the Teals: their campaigns were essentially like a Eurovision song contest: all glitz but with little or no substance.
Steggall is another example. She has demanded that the Speaker be a female. She has demanded to keep her Morrisonian pork. She has stated that Albanese is ‘worse’ than Morrison.
My view is that the Teals are going to deliver some sad surprises to the Tealers.
‘BiltongCinematicU says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 1:47 pm
Impressed by Chalmers comments on the RBA needing a more diverse board reflecting the desire for higher wages.
Signals a much needed balancing of so-called independent bodies in the government.’
—————————————————
Indeed.
BiltongCinematicU
How is the RBA board lacking a diverse board.
Australia has decent protections for abortion at a state level. However, we do not have strong enough protections at a federal level. Reproductive rights needs need to be enshrined properly to avoid a repeat of the US.
If anyone is curious check out MSI Australia (formerly Marie Stopes) as a charity that provides reproductive services. I’ve donated to them for many years.
Hh
Thanks for the link. Interesting!
The ABC article has Chalmers comments on it.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-26/chalmers-open-to-calls-to-make-rba-board-more-representative/101184530
Me: “How many Teal votes are necessary to pass legislation in the lower house? Zero you say?”
P1: “Democracy. What a nuisance.”
How is 77 of 151 not a democracy? You know how percentages work, right?
BiltongCinematicU
“Australia has decent protections for abortion at a state level. However, we do not have strong enough protections at a federal level. Reproductive rights needs need to be enshrined properly to avoid a repeat of the US.”
This is by and large by the States not having criminal laws operating. The need for Commonwealth passing laws would arise if unfair or unreasonably criminal laws continued to linger on the books and were enforced.
The conversation between these 2 Women, Mothers and Professionals, one legal, the other a journalist, is enlightening and wise:
https://youtu.be/WRrsUw8cNIs
While I endure another break in iview…
I’m no historian, but from my time living and travelling in the US it may consist of a half dozen or so different “countries”, in the sense of shared values and fierce pride in their uniqueness. The USA isn’t as homogenous as Australia. I suspect it’s been that way a long time. It’s a mistake to interpret US institutions and politics solely through the lens of Australian institutions and politics. We could compare Australia just with California, or just Texas, or more broadly with just the North East, or just the Mid West, or the South. Compared with Australia, the USA is an order more complex. (Irony not intended.)
LNP have taken their shot.
From the Guardian:
[(Susan) Ley said she took a “slightly more sympathetic view” than Labor, noting crossbench MPs and senators had to “look at every piece of legislation and get across numerous different issues” without the support of a party structure.]
Q: we do not have strong enough protections at a federal level.
Good point- the last flash point I remember was Health Minister Abbott trying to restrict access to the morning-after pill, and getting rolled.
Perhaps Labor can add it to a suite of pro-women policies that need to be enacted in the wake of the shenanigans of the last few years.
There is a dirty little secret which the Xbenchers have studiously avoided mentioning. This is not surprising, really. After all they are the squeaky cleans.
When there were four advisors and four electorate staff at least one in Canberra and one in the electorate office would always be the media advisor.
Despite the protestations by the Xbenchers that the four advisors and four electorate officers are need to get across legislation what they are really after is taxpayer funded staff with which to pursue their politicking.
Beyond that does the combined Xbench really need 25 media staff in order to analyze legislation?
My suggestion is that they club together and use some of their five staff each to form a legislative analysis group. The outputs would be shared among the Xbenchers. If they don’t want to do that they can send requests to the Parliamentary Library etc, etc, etc. to get excellent and detailed analyses of policies and of legislation.
There is no need for the taxpayer to fund the analysis of each piece of legislation 25 times.
Themunz: “Tesla has just announced grid back-up plan using home Powerwalls for their Texas energy network.
“Can only be a matter of time before vehicle batteries are included.”
Yep. Not doing it simply leaves too much money on the table. Think of it… you buy your car. Half of its charge gets used at night for 20c/KWh aka peak draw time. $10/day. $3500 a year. For parking your EV in your garage and plugging it in.
The prices I’m quoting are 1/10th to 1/20th the current wholesale cost of grid supplied energy.
Mavis says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 1:06 pm
“The current bench of the US Supreme Court is not activist – far from it! Judicial activism is reading into say a paramount Act, such as the US Constitution, implied rights that aren’t to be found in it. In a technical legal sense, the SCOTUS got both recent contentious cases right. As for the morality of their decisions, that’s an entirely different argument.”
In terms of technicalities I agree but there is far more to these decisions than the purely legal issues, especially given that the legal specifics were simply the medium used to achieve the aims. Worse still, the GOP have engineered the court’s composition to achieve a particular aim (all of which you of course know). But none of this is of import to American women.
It is the the impact, ramifications, second and third order effects that are critical. To the extent that the court overturned 50 years of accepted rights renders the decision activist (to the lay person at least). Legal technicalities appear as a facade for the court and GOP to hide behind to the average person.
Somethings don’t need a federal government response if the aim is to create a political issue because that invites opposition.
‘Torchbearer says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 2:07 pm
Q: we do not have strong enough protections at a federal level.
Good point- the last flash point I remember was Health Minister Abbott trying to restrict access to the morning-after pill, and getting rolled.
Perhaps Labor can add it to a suite of pro-women policies that need to be enacted in the wake of the shenanigans of the last few years.’
—————————-
Labor has:
1. A majority of female MPs including probably the most powerful ever group of women in Cabinet.
2. Promised to implement all the recommendations of the Jenkins Report.
3. Promised to make major improvements towards universal childcare.
4. Fully and publicly supported a pay rise in the basic wage, noting that women are disproportionately represented in lower wage industries.
5. Promised to make the RS Board more inclusive. I assume this will reflect better gender equality.
6. Employed three women as leaders out of the four new secretaries of departments.
What Labor is already demonstrating is that governments can deploy considerable power to make large difference over time with either legislation or funding.
Pi
Any views on standardizing ev chargers nationally?