Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

The first published voting intention poll since the election credits both major parties with higher primary votes than they recorded last month, for one reason or another.

Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.

The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.

This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,923 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 35 of 39
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  2. Themunz: “Tesla has just announced grid back-up plan using home Powerwalls for their Texas energy network.

    “Can only be a matter of time before vehicle batteries are included.”

    Yep. Not doing it simply leaves too much money on the table. Think of it… you buy your car. Half of its charge gets used at night for 20c/KWh aka peak draw time. $10/day. $3500 a year. For parking your EV in your garage and plugging it in.

    The current average wholesale gas price of energy is $400MWh+. 40c/KWh.

  3. ‘Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 2:17 pm

    Boerwar
    If RS board is the RBA then its already a majority female board.’
    ———————————
    M
    Thanks for this.

  6. Number of staffers an MP is entitled too:
    In the 1980s staffers specialised as shadow environment, shadow industrial relations, environment, industrial relations.
    ministers changed staffers as they changed positions ie staffers attached to portfolio not minister

    If Katy Gallagher only has 2 advisors in last parliament then Zali Steggall can learn to live with 2 also

    The staffers Stegall lets go will be employed by other Teals – don’t weep for them

  7. (iview interruption)

    The only universal electrical plug connection I’m aware of is the cigarette lighter. It’s a low current plug, but the point is that it involves vehicles. Perhaps personal vehicle manufacturers can help set a standard high current plug.

  8. BW i think it’s inevitable that EV chargers will be standardised, but there are still a lot of decisions about the best mix of power, capability and safety that will need to be included before a comprehensive standard exists. No one’s fault either; There have just been many advancements, and standardising before they’re optimised could lock out better systems developed later. I expect there’ll be waves, like USB, with the view to making them backwards compatible where possible.

  10. Torchbearer says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 2:25 pm

    Q: Labor has:

    Indeed, Labor has the mandate and will to really make a difference in women’s lives here. The Roe decision just makes it all the more timely.
    ———————-
    The ALP can do that but Roe has nothing to do with Australia but to open another pointless culture war. Roe v Wade has been an American political issue since the 1970s and it has not politically hurt the republicans outside of New England and the west coast.

  11. Pi

    When it come so chargers all that needs to be standardized
    1) Is the plug ( done Europe has a standard we only have to follow).
    2) The interface to control them.
    50KA max (as per the European standard) seems to be a good spot.

  13. Abortion in the USA

    I don’t think it has sunk in just how profoundly this will effect women’s futures. If you can remember the 1960s you have an idea of the loss of autonomy and economic independence this entails.
    In the 1960s many men marched down the aisle because their girlfriend was pregnant, they could get a job, buy a house and make a go playing happy families
    Nowadays often the attitude is that the pregnancy is the woman’s problem and the man has no responsibility

    Outcomes
    1. women’s education will be stifled by unplanned pregnancy
    2. women’s career prospects blighted as they will only be offered 6 month contracts with no career progression
    3. will women be unable to get a mortgage

    This is a HATRED OF WOMEN law that will accelerate the decline of the american empire

  16. I just read the Guardian article that says the Tax Office is going the clamp down on family trusts.

    About bloody time. Apparently tax accountants are bitter and twisted because many rorts are now common practice. I presume they reckon if they are common practice they should continue. A classic rort mentioned is where parent gift $180,000 to a child who then uses it to pay the parents to raise them.

    The use of trusts is confined to the wealthy. This is just another example of the burden of paying for services and infrastructure falls unfairly on the low paid.

    I expect the new government to reverse these rorts.

  19. The new independents have indicated they intend to caucus and discuss legislation as a group.

    The total number of support staff is now a significant number, and when pooled, it should not be beyond the wit of the group to subject all legislation to thorough examination.

    The closer this change is examined the more reasonable it looks.

  20. Mexicanbeemer says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 1:07 pm
    “There is something about our media’s obsession because the otherday channel 7 told viewers that American 5 years olds can now get vaccine jabs.”

    So much of American culture seeps through to Australia and I suspect much of the rest of the world. Ever since I was a boy I understood that the most ubiquitous unnatural element on earth was American culture, it infects everything and little has changed. The medium for the spread of this culture of course is the media.

  22. I am in Broome today. Temp 30c, leaving behind chilly Adelaide for a month.
    I have a 6 hour bus trip to Fitzroy Crossing tomorrow.

    This guy is great for up-to-date news with maps of the Ukraine -Russia war.
    https://youtu.be/iN-DZ8QoX94 along with Operator Starsky on YouTube. He is a member of the Ukraine forces.

    An Aussie guy , who has some a degree in history and economics of war or some such and worked for our defence force has excellent analysis of aspects of this conflict. His assessment of the possibility of Putin using nukes was very interesting (very low chance). He goes by the handle PERUN if you want to check it out.

    I believe if Ukraine gets the weapons, they will expell Russia from its land abd then go after Crimea. Putin has really screwed up this time.

  23. Pisays:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 2:37 pm
    “frednk, there are already charger variants up to 350kW.

    https://evcentral.com.au/two-more-350kw-ultra-rapid-chargers-for-nsw/

    Charge a car to 85% in 10 minutes. It would be a brave prediction to say where that’s going to end up. 50kW might turn out to be the setting, but I suspect there will be a few variants.”

    Battery chemistry will continue to evolve and placing upper charging limits is anti progress.

  24. Where does it say Gartrell resigned? Can only find a 2019 story about Sabina Husic who was deputy resigning due to fallout from anonymous fake allegations

    ????

  26. Late Riser says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 2:07 pm
    While I endure another break in iview…

    “I’m no historian, but from my time living and travelling in the US it may consist of a half dozen or so different “countries”, in the sense of shared values and fierce pride in their uniqueness. The USA isn’t as homogenous as Australia. I suspect it’s been that way a long time. It’s a mistake to interpret US institutions and politics solely through the lens of Australian institutions and politics. We could compare Australia just with California, or just Texas, or more broadly with just the North East, or just the Mid West, or the South. Compared with Australia, the USA is an order more complex. (Irony not intended.)”

    My experience has been the same, often driving between US states can be as different as driving between European countries. That they’ve maintained the status quo for so long as a nation is probably more surprising than not. The diversity of culture, opinion, religion, politics, economics, geography etc is an order of magnitude different to Australia. I suspect that finally the holes in the American cheese are beginning to align, it was only a matter of time.

  27. Yes, the dissent is so stifled it’s across all the media.

    Of all the ridiculous things Teals have said over this issue, that they’ve been silenced is the most.

  29. (sigh, another break in iview transmission)

    For the discussion on connectors, Amps and Watts are not the same. From memory (dim), W=VA, so that 50kA times 7Volts is the same as 350kW. Once battery chemistry is no longer the limiting factor (I need think about that one) the connector design will be dominated by other concerns, such as safety.


  30. Themunz says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 2:53 pm

    Pisays:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 2:37 pm
    “frednk, there are already charger variants up to 350kW.

    https://evcentral.com.au/two-more-350kw-ultra-rapid-chargers-for-nsw/

    Charge a car to 85% in 10 minutes. It would be a brave prediction to say where that’s going to end up. 50kW might turn out to be the setting, but I suspect there will be a few variants.”

    Battery chemistry will continue to evolve and placing upper charging limits is anti progress.

    In the end there has to be something behind the charger. Large short direction block loads are not going to be accepted by the utility.

    We are now having to face the issue of bringing 1000’s of chargers onto the network and they are not going to be super chargers.

  31. So at the next election we’ll know- Vote independent and we’ll use your taxpayers $$ to double the staff bill. Yeah-nah

    Use your “independent ” backers for more research, support etc.

  32. zoomster @ #1727 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 3:00 pm

    Yes, the dissent is so stifled it’s across all the media.

    Of all the ridiculous things Teals have said over this issue, that they’ve been silenced is the most.

    Social commentary is cheap. Developing and/or analyzing legislation costs time and money. Labor apparently doesn’t care much about the former because they think it will blow over, but they do not want Independents in parliament capable of the latter.

    They are being too clever by half and will find this out at the next election, if not before.

  33. Late Riser says:

    350 KW would be DC and it would be running at several hundred volts and as you said safety would be the issue. DC several hundred volts 10’s of amps can make a serious mess..

  34. Paddy O @ #1731 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 3:04 pm

    So at the next election we’ll know- Vote independent and we’ll use your taxpayers $$ to double the staff bill. Yeah-nah

    Use your “independent ” backers for more research, support etc.

    So you want more people in parliament backed by outside money? Just like the major parties are?

  35. I’ll bet the fossil fuel corporations are looking forward to the day when they can double count electric vehicle storage as they currently double count rooftop solar, and get government subsidies for doing nothing on that front either.

    What a clever country we are!

  37. Good arvo all, especially to my partner in the “getting pissed stakes” BTRProducer!
    All this carry on from the Independents, what a bunch of cry babies! I had to laugh at all the media beating this up into “the first crisis for the Albanese Government”.
    And predictably Nath and Rex have reverted to their time honoured roles of “concern trolls”.

  39. frednksays:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 3:03 pm

    Tesla is involved in all parts of the cycle, solar energy, battery storage, energy grid, super charging and EV’s.

    Musk has indicated that his Master Plan 3 will be all about abundance through massive scale.

    We should know more about it later this year.

  42. frednksays:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 3:25 pm

    “Going forward Musk will be just another bit player.”

    The concept or the execution?
    🙂

  44. Typically If the grid is in blackout conditions, and your home has solar, the system is designed to kill your solar capability so you DON’T back feed into the grid. The same would apply to your EV, and believe me you don’t want your EV powering the grid. The demand potential would likely damage your battery from the fast discharge. The amount of energy in an EV battery would last a matter of seconds before depletion or would be so minimal as to be unusable for the grid.

    How is the power converter in your EV going to sync itself to the grid frequency during a blackout so you and all your neighbors inputs to the grid don’t fight each other.

    Do you know why transfer switches are used between backup generators and the AC mains? Discuss what happens if you don’t do this and the power comes back on.

    What is never discussed in this scenario is frequency and phase control when sending power from several residences back through a distribution transformer. Does anyone know what happens when you connect several unsynchronized sources in frequency and phase to a common point such as the input to a transformer? It won’t be pretty!

  45. If the senate crossbench can’t properly scrutinise legislation in the time given by Labor due to minimal staff assistance, then we could see delays leading to Govt paralysis.

  46. Player Onesays:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 3:06 pm

    zoomster @ #1727 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 3:00 pm

    Yes, the dissent is so stifled it’s across all the media.

    Of all the ridiculous things Teals have said over this issue, that they’ve been silenced is the most.

    Social commentary is cheap. Developing and/or analyzing legislation costs time and money. Labor apparently doesn’t care much about the former because they think it will blow over, but they do not want Independents in parliament capable of the latter.

    They are being too clever by half and will find this out at the next election, if not before.

    So, how many advisors do they need and why?

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