Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
@Zoomster:
“Of all the ridiculous things Teals have said over this issue, that they’ve been silenced is the most.”
Precisely. So naturally, world champion idiot P1 has her Pom Poms out for this line.
Speaking of whom:
“Social commentary is cheap. Developing and/or analyzing legislation costs time and money. Labor apparently doesn’t care much about the former because they think it will blow over, but they do not want Independents in parliament capable of the latter.”
Let’s count the ways that the teals, and any member of parliament can access resources to develop and/or analyse legislation without having FOUR Morrison flunkeys to pop grapes into their mouths and fan them as they recline on the comfy couches:
The creation of the parliamentary budget office in 2012 by the previous Labor Government. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_Budget_Office
2. The growth of parliamentary committees in recent years, including staffed secretariats to specifically scrutinise legislation and develop policy;
3. Senate estimates hearings;
4. The establishment of the Main Committee chamber of the HOR to consider legislation and debate amendments;
5. The Questions on Notice system;
6. The Parliamentary Library & it’s research staff;
7. Parliamentary Counsel – the doyens of drafting legislation;
8. Access to PLO and DLO offices.
And guess what? Back in 2010-13 the cross bench indies were able to harness off of THAT with only one extra staffer.
What a useless idiot you are, P1.
Thanks kezza2. 🙂 I should have thought of that. (facepalm) I’ve never had this much trouble with iview before today.
A US Congress person has around 3/4 million constituents.
An Australian Federal MP has around 100,000.
Andrew_Earlwood in Falls Creek @ #1750 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 3:51 pm
The creation of the parliamentary budget office in 2012 by the previous Labor Government. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_Budget_Office
2. The growth of parliamentary committees in recent years, including staffed secretariats to specifically scrutinise legislation and develop policy;
3. Senate estimates hearings;
4. The establishment of the Main Committee chamber of the HOR to consider legislation and debate amendments;
5. The Questions on Notice system;
6. The Parliamentary Library & it’s research staff;
7. Parliamentary Counsel – the doyens of drafting legislation;
8. Access to PLO and DLO offices.
And guess what? Back in 2010-13 the cross bench indies were able to harness off of THAT with only one extra staffer.
I note today that the resources of the Parliamentary Library are to be increased to cope with the additional workload
“And guess what? Back in 2010-13 the cross bench indies were able to harness off of THAT with only one extra staffer.”
Word from the oracle
Tony Windsor
@TonyHWindsor
·
Jun 25
Electorate staff are there to serve the constituency not engage in legislative work.Need at least 2 staff to serve Independents in the Parliament on legislation,bills perusal,private members work,meetings and research etc.
Reduction to one staff will compromise their work
Mexb: “Anyone with a will can set up a trust.”
It is completely irrelevant who CAN set up a trust.
nath
What would you call Sydney with Howard, Abbott, Turnbull, Morrison and L Murdoch as residents?
frednk: “Going forward Musk will be just another bit player.”
The only consistency of Musk is how consistently people have been saying that throughout his entire career. “EV’s are never going to work. Musk comes from the dotcom era. What can he possibly know about constructing cars?”. “Private space is never going to work. Musk comes from the dotcom era. What can he possibly know about constructing space rockets?”.
Wong will just have to wait until Pocock/Lambie are ready to vote.
Of course the alternative is to do deals with Littleproud or Dutton.
I’m not knocking Telsa – they make nice cars, albeit very expensive ones. But it is worth putting Tesla in some kind of perspective ** …
In 2021, Tesla built 900 thousand electric vehicles.
In 2021, Toyota sold 2.6 million electric vehicles.
In 2021, the world sold 6.7 million electric vehicles.
In 2021, Toyota sold 7.6 million vehicles (electric and non-electric).
I could have used any of perhaps a dozen major car makers, but Toyota is the largest. Tesla does not even make it into the top 10. Elon Musk’s major talent is making money, not cars.
**All numbers from Statistica. Other sites have slightly different numbers, but the overall picture is similar.
P1: “I’ll bet the fossil fuel corporations are looking forward to the day when they can double count electric vehicle storage as they currently double count rooftop solar, and get government subsidies for doing nothing on that front either.”
Where are your examples of fossil fuel corporations double counting rooftop solar for government subsidies?
P1: How many cars did Telsa build in 2020, 2019, 2018 and 2017?
They undershot their predictions of 2021 by 10%. Tesla could literally BUY the next 10 largest car construction companies and stop producing cars.
Andrew_Earlwood in Falls Creek @ #1751 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 3:51 pm
Still obsessed with me, AE?
Pi @ #1761 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 4:06 pm
Posted earlier today.
Pi @ #1762 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 4:08 pm
Musk undershoots himself in the foot regularly.
Those Toyota’s are hybrids though? Toyota is also 120 billion in debt, VW 200 billion.
P1: “I’ll bet the fossil fuel corporations are looking forward to the day when they can double count electric vehicle storage as they currently double count rooftop solar, and get government subsidies for doing nothing on that front either.”
Me: Where are you examples of fossil fuel corporations double counting rooftop solar for government subsidies?
P1: “Posted earlier today.”
Making shit up as always then.
Mexb: “simply pointed out to Granny Anny that you don’t need to be wealthy to have a trust.”
You’re simply pointing out an irrelevance as a tactic to divert attention from the REALITY that trusts are OVERWHELMINGLY taken out by the wealthy. As. You. Well. Know. And the only real contention here is your definition of wealthy.
Do Adelaide bludgers still like the description ‘City of churches’ …?
A bit out of date, maybe …?
____________
A lot of them have been repurposed.
P1: “Musk undershoots himself in the foot regularly.”
He’s regularly failed himself into being the richest person in the world I guess.
So Windsor reckons that four advisors is twice as much as the Xbenchers need.
That on top of the fact that Windsor was an Xbencher when there were hundreds of pieces of legislation. Unlikely to happen this time around because far more gets done by the Executive these days.
Pi says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 4:16 pm
Mexb: “simply pointed out to Granny Anny that you don’t need to be wealthy to have a trust.”
You’re simply pointing out an irrelevance as a tactic to divert attention from the REALITY that trusts are OVERWHELMINGLY taken out by the wealthy. As. You. Well. Know. And the only real contention here is your definition of wealthy.
——————–
That is your interpretation and you are wrong because its a fact that nearly anyone can set up a trust.
I didn’t say anything about the tax structures of trusts or if they should be reformed.
‘Shellbell says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 3:18 pm
Al Jazeera English
@AJEnglish
·
3m
Indonesia’s president to visit Russia, Ukraine on peace mission’
————————————————–
This is very interesting, IMO. Indonesia has the status and the degree of neutrality that might make it a useful negotiator. Most of the rest of the potential candidates are compromised from one perspective or another.
The other interesting bit is that it possibly signals that we might be heading for a frozen conflict with the Donbas, the Crimea and the Crimean land corridor inside Russian lines.
Mexb: “its a fact that nearly anyone can set up a trust.”
It’s an irrelevant fact. What’s relevant is who DOES set up trusts and why aka the wealthy to reduce tax payments.
Pi
It is relevant if someone says only the wealthy have them.
Pi @ #1770 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 4:18 pm
He has indeed. That is his talent, as I have already pointed out.
Mexb: “It is relevant if someone says only the wealthy have them.”
Weasel words. When 99% of things happen by one cohort, you don’t say “but muh 1%”.
Are the Xbenchers all shouting out loud and long that they have been silenced?
Really?
P1: ” That is his talent”
Musk’s talent seems to be in running companies that make electric cars and space rockets from what I’ve seen. He runs a couple of companies; Tesla and SpaceX. You should look them up. They’re really quite successful. In truth, his world-class skill is in the creation of high-tech factories. But if your only understanding of construction is what is gleaned from social media, I suppose you’ll ‘think’ the way that you do.
Rex Douglas @ #1747 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 3:18 pm
Better and more accurate than being called the Murder Capital of Australia. Although Adelaide has less churches per head than Hobart iirc.
BK @ #1770 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 4:18 pm
Out of necessity due to diminishing congregations I presume.
Can’t really expect the Govt to fund upkeep through ‘heritage’ funding so using the buildings for other gatherings is smart.
I have to say the histrionics over cross bench staffing here (on both sides) is pretty amazing. Of course they want more. Everyone wants more! And nobody squeals louder than someone who loses what they have or even is denied what they expect. Franking credits for non-taxpayers ring a bell?
At the end of the day all of the cross-benchers will vote how they expect the majority of their electorate wants them to. For a random but topical example, if Labor were to legislate to defer or cancel the stage 3 tax cuts, then I would expect most of the teals would vote against the measure. I think someone like Wilkie would vote in favour. As for Pocock and the Lambies, they will most likely vote for – but if not, it won’t be because they are pissed off with Labor for denying them more staff.
Let’s see what happens when Parliament sits and Labor starts putting legislation through.
Spacex Starship will be flown in July apparently. That will change everything. They will be rolling off the production line. Asteroid mining, space tourism, Mars colony. It’s all within reach.
‘David Pocock
@pocockdavid
·
Jun 25
This decision is hypocritical and a double-standard that actively disadvantages community-backed independents while preserving the status quo for the major parties.’
—————————————-
Spot the fibs.
‘David Pocock
@pocockdavid
·
Jun 25
This isn’t about parliamentarians or staff, it’s about listening to and respecting our communities.
…’
Actually, whatever else it is or is not, it is definitely about spending up to $50 million on Xbencher staff over the next three years.
TPOF says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 4:29 pm
I have to say the histrionics over cross bench staffing here (on both sides) is pretty amazing. Of course they want more. Everyone wants more! And nobody squeals louder than someone who loses what they have or even is denied what they expect. Franking credits for non-taxpayers ring a bell?
At the end of the day all of the cross-benchers will vote how they expect the majority of their electorate wants them to. For a random but topical example, if Labor were to legislate to defer or cancel the stage 3 tax cuts, then I would expect most of the teals would vote against the measure. I think someone like Wilkie would vote in favour. As for Pocock and the Lambies, they will most likely vote for – but if not, it won’t be because they are pissed off with Labor for denying them more staff.
Let’s see what happens when Parliament sits and Labor starts putting legislation through.’
————————————–
Where did Labor promise to change the Stage 3 tax cut legislation?
Pocock gets to play hard-ball though. He can legitimately say “I won’t vote for legislation that I can’t validate” a la Rex Patrick. They need his vote.
Teals in the lower house though? They have no justification for getting more staff than backbenchers do, which is what they’re squealing about. Their votes aren’t required. It’s spending money for literally no benefit.
BK;…..I hate it. Everytime some ilinformed commentator lobs into Adelaide whether it be for sport or anything else, its the first words that spill out of their unresearched mouths…..Adelaide hasnt been any more or less religious than the rest of Australia for a very long time…..if they ever were. The churches are either converted into nightclubs or restaurants or lay 90% empty on a Sunday, or 100% empty on any other day…..Were it not for immigration from places like the Philippines they would nearly all have closed down 20 years ago
An example of what can be achieved when Labor is in Government. No changes to legislation. No changes to regulations. No changes to resources.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/26/australian-taxation-office-crackdown-on-family-trust-rorts-causes-alarm-among-tax-advisers
Yes, BeaglieBoy.
It is quite a relief to know that we will not be hearing any more about Liberal/Labor same old same old from the Xbenchers.
Labor is, it turns out, WORSE. It is cracking down on small ‘c’ Xbencher corruption.
‘Pi says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 4:35 pm
Pocock gets to play hard-ball though. He can legitimately say “I won’t vote for legislation that I can’t validate” a la Rex Patrick. They need his vote.
….’
It is going to be interesting to see what he blocks in return for a couple of extra staff…
… principled? Corrupt?
Boerwar @ #1793 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 4:39 pm
Buyers remorse coz he’s not a Labor stooge …?
Has anyone here ever threatened industrial action before they had even started a new job?
(grr… I finally finished Insiders on iview. It turns out YouTube only has a portion of the whole thing. But thank you kezza2 for getting me some of it.)
If today’s show is the standard, I might have to watch in future. The guests were worth listening to. And Chalmers was relaxed and appeared on top of things. (The contrast to our previous bloke was refreshing.) Chalmers answered many of his questions by reference to a planned process for getting stakeholders involved and then making decisions. It’s a good approach this early into a new government’s tenure. It gets us used to calm considered government. (Frightening horses it isn’t.) Also, he just looked competent.
nath @ #1783 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 4:30 pm
And self driving cars. Don’t forget those!
TPOF @ #1782 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 4:29 pm
It’s a distraction by Labor from other issues, of course. What other issues? Well, anyone who has been paying attention would probably know that.
Holly Hughes has all the answers regarding the election result.
It’s zoomster’s fault. 😆
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/26/education-system-run-by-marxists-jason-clare-takes-aim-at-liberal-senator-over-comments-on-teachers
Hollie Hughes should remember that next time she supports public funding for elite private schools because that is where many teal supporters went to school.
Holly Hughes is something special.
In a Liberal lady MP sort of way.