Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
those who bet against Musk invariably lose their money and or their credibility
BiltongCinematicU @ #1574 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 2:07 pm
Thank you for the free kick, Sussan. Labor are now the holders of the mantle of ‘Better Economic Managers’. 😀
I’m late checking in today.
Re the cross bench staff thing: John Maynard Keynes observed that people will tolerate a price increase much more readily than a pay cut – even if price increases completely cancel out their wage position. People don’t like feeling like they’ve lost something.
Stiff. Describing the Turnbull-Morrison inflation of staffing for cross-benchers as “small ‘c’ corruption” may be close to reality.
Disappointing to see so many Bludgers supporting small ‘c’ corruption.
I think cross-benchers complaining about what is, in fact, a return to normality will wash poorly with many in the electorate.
…I did have two ex students emerge from the crowd at the Patrick strike…both were unionists and both credited me with their being there.
One is now married to Victoria’s Deputy Premier.
I gave the credit, however, to the very loud American on staff….
BeaglieBoy @ #1801 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 5:01 pm
I would never bet against him. But I would also never give him money.
Quick thought on Mars Colonies before I’m off to make dinner:
Mars is a dead world. It is no more alive than our moon. I’ve read that an independent colony with the technological sophistication to maintain itself at our current level needs to have at least 1 million people, supported by a planet wide ecosystem. (And I’ve seen estimates that 100 million people is the minimum to sustain our current level of tech.) There will never be a self-sustaining “colony” on Mars, at best there will only ever be outposts or research stations, a bit like Antarctic stations but without an atmosphere, without the high energy particle shield, and a hundred thousand times further from help.
Musk has done more for the planet with his EVs (I have one, there great…..awesome in fact) and his solar company…..I have a Powerwall II as well, there great…..I am inspired by SpaceX and their exploits to make life multiplanetary and nothing some two bit blogger on a politics site can say will change my mind
BREAKING: The United States and G7 allies to announce ban on the import of Russian gold
BW
Where did Labor promise to change the Stage 3 tax cut legislation?
_________________________________
They didn’t and I don’t expect them to. It was just an example to illustrate the point I was making.
BREAKING: Russia announced today it was going to put nuclear weapons in Belarus.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/26/russia-to-send-belarus-nuclear-capable-missiles-within-months-as-g7-leaders-gather-in-germany
🙁
The Liberal Party still hasn’t got it.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/26/education-system-run-by-marxists-jason-clare-takes-aim-at-liberal-senator-over-comments-on-teachers
And you’re exactly right about all the other colleagues, Hollie. They ARE dinosaurs. You included.
Holdenhillbilly @ #1690 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 5:14 pm
= More revenue for Australia. 🙂
C@tmomma @ #1812 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 5:20 pm
Because that’s what’s important here 🙁
Boerwar at 1.49
My second Senate vote went to Pocock. My motivations were to get rid of Seselja and also to get someone who had a track record of principle behaviour.
Pocock’s very first public act of getting into bed with Hanson and Roberts and of threatening to withold his vote is, quite plainly, a rather sordid betrayal.
____________
If you haven’t already, I’d encourage you to communicate your concern to Sen. Pocock.
Aaron Newton at 2.33 re Tim Gartrell ‘resigning’…
Do you have a link about this? My google search continues to identify him as Pm’s CoS.
Lets not forget what kind of staffers some Independent minor parties employ
ex Liberal party staffers such as James Ashy
Scott says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 5:30 pm
Lets not forget what kind of staffers some Independent minor parties employ
ex Liberal party staffers such as James Ashy
______
Classic Scottism.
Snappy Tom @ #1697 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 5:30 pm
It’s not true, that’s why he can’t provide a link.
This is from his Wikipedia page:
Gartrell was appointed as the Chief of Staff to Leader of the Opposition Anthony Albanese in June 2019.[13] Following the 2022 federal election, he became the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Gartrell
nath says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 5:32 pm
Scott says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 5:30 pm
Lets not forget what kind of staffers some Independent minor parties employ
ex Liberal party staffers such as James Ashy
______
Classic Scottism.
———————————
No its shows how a few of the cross bench misuses staffers for corrupt like behaviour
Boerwar @ #1654 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 4:24 pm
Which would be an unfair prize given to Russia just to stop the carnage. Another bite out of Ukraine taken by Russia.
C@tmomma @ #1811 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 5:19 pm
Dave Sharma would know about removing the Liberal logo from his billboard.
Maybe allow the federal ICAC/Integrity commission look into the use of political staffers , before allocation of staffers to political partys/members
Themunz says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 3:28 pm
frednksays:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 3:25 pm
“Going forward Musk will be just another bit player.”
The concept or the execution?
The concept is valid, but there are a lot of players.
Poor Scott,
You’re going to be very disappointed with any ICAC that gets implemented.
C@t at 5.19
Hollie Hughes: comedic genius.
BeaglieBoy says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 5:01 pm
those who bet against Musk invariably lose their money and or their credibility
Perhaps, but the market is now moving to being able to deliver. Musk (like the rest of industry ) is struggling to deliver. I wouldn’t bet against the traditional car industry sorting themselves out last.
As to how the grid is transformed, the major electrical manufactures have weakened themselves pursuing Nuclear, I however wouldn’t bet against the electrical industry either. Musk will be a bit player, because he is playing in only a bit of the industry. Space X, musk doesn’t seem to be able to focus.
Barney in Cherating says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 5:56 pm
Poor Scott,
You’re going to be very disappointed with any ICAC that gets implemented.
—————————————————–
I maybe a bit surprise If it doesnt do the expectations of what people hope/think it should , but wont be disappointed the election promise was for a Federal Anti-corrupt like commission
Boerwar at 4.24
The other interesting bit is that it possibly signals that we might be heading for a frozen conflict with the Donbas, the Crimea and the Crimean land corridor inside Russian lines.
____________
To what extent would the cession of these bits of Ukraine to Russia be analogous to the cession of the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia to Germany in 1938?
Less than a year later, Germany swallowed the rest of Czechoslovakia.
Why would ‘peace’ terms with Russia involving Russia gaining territory as a result of aggression be at all trustworthy?
frednk: Respectfully I think your wrong on all three of your evaluations of Musks businesses….but only time will tell….and the roll of the great wheel of time shall reveal all….and it wont take into account the humble musings of this little shopkeeper….but I find his energy and vision envigorating in a world beset with wars, trumps, the fall of Roe v Wade, the cost of living….all power to him I hope he succeeds
Scottsays:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 6:03 pm
I would be completely shocked if it turned out to be anything like the Star Chamber you seem to be suggesting.
Anyone know if we expect a Newspoll tonight
Question to anyone.
The recent SCOTUS decisions, to my mind at least, have removed the fig leaf of ambiguity from the GOP’s politics. Trump and his GOP put the judges there who tilted the court to this result. I half suspect the GOP wanted the threat but not the actual outcome. The threat would have served them better politically. So now the GOP are laid bare. And it’s ugly. So how can the GOP respond? Here’s one attempt.
The claim is that this isn’t about politics. My question is, will this work for the GOP? I doubt it, but I’m just one opinion.
And of course those that believed in Musk…
https://www.businessinsider.com/virgin-hyperloop-layoffs-passenger-travel-cargo-transport-2022-2
frednk: “Perhaps, but the market is now moving to being able to deliver. ”
I’ve been hearing for almost 20 years how the comeuppance of Musk was “just around the corner”. The only consistency is how this thing is always just around the corner; As his companies continue to get larger and larger shares of the market.
It’s a bit old, a discussion on the quad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6HoMzJadpg
Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 6:23 pm
And of course those that believed in Musk…
https://www.businessinsider.com/virgin-hyperloop-layoffs-passenger-travel-cargo-transport-2022-2
_______________
Musk popularized the idea, which has been around for a long time. Of course this company has nothing to do with Musk. Why not trot out that horrible video again?
Pi says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 6:27 pm
frednk: “Perhaps, but the market is now moving to being able to deliver. ”
I’ve been hearing for almost 20 years how the comeuppance of Musk was “just around the corner”.
Being a bit player is not a comeuppance . We are talking about a very vary large industry.
frednk: “Being a bit player is not a comeuppance ”
Largest car company in the world, larger than the other top 20 largest car companies combined, will become bit player because reasons.
Pi
What I find fascinating is just how cult-like Musk’s followers are. Some of us like to call them Musk rats.
Musk is a great self promoter. For instance most people believe that he was the person who created Paypal. That’s actually not true. Musk is a spoiled rich bitch who benefited from daddy’s dodgy apartheid era wealth. He has two talents. One is hiring good engineers (he is not an engineer himself). The other is being able to bullshit investors.
He can legitimately claim to be boss of a car company – one that he pried from its original founders with more of his familiar corporate shenanigans. This car company will go on to be a car company. One of many. Good luck to it. Its overvalued however. And lets not mention the “self driving” fraud.
Elon also (see above about hiring good engineers) has a legitimate rocket business. That’s the nearest thing to anything he’s actually created (and not stolen). SpaceX has a future selling legitimate launch services. However, Elon has bet the company on a rocket with very little in the way of business case, when he could have stuck with, and improved the Falcon series.
‘Snappy Tom says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 6:06 pm
Boerwar at 4.24
The other interesting bit is that it possibly signals that we might be heading for a frozen conflict with the Donbas, the Crimea and the Crimean land corridor inside Russian lines.
____________
To what extent would the cession of these bits of Ukraine to Russia be analogous to the cession of the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia to Germany in 1938?
Less than a year later, Germany swallowed the rest of Czechoslovakia.
Why would ‘peace’ terms with Russia involving Russia gaining territory as a result of aggression be at all trustworthy?’
————————
I posed this question in the general sense of both Putin and Xi before Putin’s War. IMO, much of the discussion about Xi is implicitly predicated on answering your question. Putin has sharpened the point of the question. But we still don’t know the answer in relation to either Putin or, more importantly for Australia, Xi.
Pi says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 6:34 pm
frednk: “Being a bit player is not a comeuppance ”
Largest car company in the world, larger than all other car companies combined, will become bit player because reasons.
__________
The number one reason is jealousy. But that doesn’t impact on real world events.
Cud: “What I find fascinating is just how cult-like Musk’s followers are.”
What I find fascinating is just how cult-like the anti-Musk people are. It’s fkn weird.
South Africa: Twenty-two people have been found dead at an East London nightclub.
The horrific scene unfolded in the early hours of Sunday morning with frantic messages requesting police, metro and ambulance assistance at Enyobeni Tavern in Scenery Park.
Daily Dispatch reporters are on the scene but the images are not fit for publication.
The cause of the deaths is unknown at this time but there has been speculation that the patrons were either exposed to some form of poison or an incident resulted in a large number being injured and killed in a stampede.
Pi
Because in terms of volume, Tesla is a small player and its massively overvalued. The current valuation reflects the belief that Tesla will become the dominant car company. That’s not going to happen.
Pi
I bet you think we’re all going to Mars, right? Now, tell me who is weird.
Furious crossbenchers threaten to vote against Albanese amid staffing cuts | 9 News Australia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THXrN5Ve1ho&ab_channel=9NewsAustralia
Cud Chewer says:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 6:35 pm
Musk is a spoiled rich bitch who benefited from daddy’s dodgy apartheid era wealth
_________________
That’s probably as true as the claim that Cud Chewer’s life and privileges have been predicated on Aboriginal dispossession and genocide.
Cud Chewer @ #1839 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 6:35 pm
It’s a bit like Stockholm Syndrome. If you’ve just invested bigly in an EV that should cost about 1/3 as much, you suddenly seem to find reasons why Musk is a genius.
Cud: “I bet you think we’re all going to Mars, right? Now, tell me who is weird.”
Never was going to happen, and was never part of a plan. But the anti-musk cult will just invent whatever justification for why his comeuppance is just around the corner. You’ll see. Uh-huh. The last decade of the anti-musk cult was right aaaaalll along. For all that time being proven wrong. Uh-huh. Just a little bit more. Yep. Soon. You’ll see.
But if you wanna do that thing, aka setup a base on Mars, you need to make yourself a big fkn rocket, which is exactly what they’re doing. At the same time as crushing all competitors before them.
If you’re interested in ‘the plan’, which clearly you are not, it is to have one million people on Mars. Not ‘everyone’, and never was so. I also know that with my age, there’s zero chance of this happening for me, because for the first few decades it’s going to be extremely taxing and dangerous. But the people in your cult can’t help but make shit up to lap up as a substitute of nothing you say ever coming true.
How many rich people today did not have rich parents?