Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)

The first published voting intention poll since the election credits both major parties with higher primary votes than they recorded last month, for one reason or another.

Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.

The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.

This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,923 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor (open thread)”

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  2. Pi says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 6:34 pm

    frednk: “Being a bit player is not a comeuppance ”

    Largest car company in the world, larger than all other car companies combined, will become bit player because reasons.

    I think you meant to say largest electric car company.

    Global car production 2021 about 80 million units.
    Tesla car production 2021 0.3 million.
    Manufacture in Germany was 2021 0.25 million, Tesla is about to start building a factory there, but into an expanding market.

    You can’t believe the ICE engine is finished and believe Tesla will be anything other than a bit player.

  4. Pi

    If you believe even a dozen people will fly off to Mars and live there happily ever after, you deserve Musk.

  5. Cud: “If you believe even a dozen people will fly off to Mars and live there happily ever after, you deserve Musk.”

    If the advancements of other people offend you, ignore them. It’s very cult-like to do otherwise.

  6. Frednk says:

    You can’t believe the ICE engine is finished and believe Tesla will be anything other than a bit player.
    ____________
    Do you think Musk believes that Tesla will be the only electric car manufacturer?

    They are aiming to sell around 8-10 million per year, and be the best electric car manufacturer, with the best margins.

    All of the ICE car makers have enormous debts, Toyota: 120 billion, VW 200 billion etc etc.

    If these bozos couldn’t make money selling ICE cars, why would they be able to make money selling electric cars?

  11. Pi

    I’m not worried about Musk’s Mars delusion. Nothing will come of it. I’m merely pointing out that there’s a lot of his followers who buy into that delusion because “its Musk”.

  12. P1: “It’s a bit like Stockholm Syndrome. ”

    Me : Stop using big words you don’t understand.

    P1: Google it, mate.

    You dropped this:

  13. Cud: “I’m not worried about Musk’s Mars delusion.”

    For someone not worried about something, you certainly spend a lot of time explaining to people about how it’s worrying. It’s almost cult-like.

    Cud: “Nothing will come of it.”

    I’ve been hearing this same criticism for 20 years. “What does Musk know about making cars?”
    “What does Musk know about making rockets?” At what point do you admit you’re wrong?

  15. P1: “Wouldn’t surprise me.”

    You seem to live in a world in which you’re perpetually surprised, because nothing EVER seems to turn out the way you imagined.

  16. Nath
    If the LNP had not rid Adelaide of a car industry and submarine manufacturing maybe the city would not have to depend on a reputation of sin, your description!


  17. BK says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 7:01 pm

    Musk’s EV technology and supply chain arrangements are both unique and YEARS ahead of his EV opposition.

    Do you think the other manufactures can sort themselves out?
    It seems to me they are entering a period of extreme market expansion.

  18. In my mind.

    Tesla is way overvalued.

    People also underestimate Musk so I would not be surprised if the Mars colony is successful or if is does not work.

  19. Pi

    Plain English, just for you.

    Musk’s Mars delusion doesn’t bother me because nothing will happen.

    Musk’s cult following does worry me because he can exercise illegitimate power through his cult.

    You get that those are two different things?

  21. frednk: “Do you think the other manufactures can sort themselves out?”

    The issue is a simple one. Musk has one world-class skill, and he is peerless in that skill. What is that skill do you ask? It is making high-tech factories. The patents are even open-sourced. Anyone CAN build things like Musk companies, but without that skill-set, they can’t do it for cheaper. They can make inferior products, which aren’t as valuable, but like-for-like, Musk companies make products that are cheaper for the same level of quality, than any competitor.

    Do I think competitors might turn that around? Maybe. Starting now, if someone came along that tried to emulate the process, I expect it would take 20 years or so to perfect. That’s the advantage he applies to the production of both cars and space-rockets.

    Don’t like that reality? Too bad.

  22. Pi

    As I said, Musk is good at two things. One is hiring good engineers. See SpaceX.
    The other is bullshitting investors. See for example his sale of Zip2 to Compaq (who went broke).

  23. frednk
    Musk has a huge advantage in a number of areas –
    – the vehicle’s design means that far fewer individual parts are used, thereby drastically reducing the assembly labour
    – he is building greenfield factories all over the world at a great rate and these factories are designed in a way that they have high levels of automation
    – the opposition manufacturers are highly invested in plant, equipment and experience that are not effectively able to match Musk’s methods
    – Musk’s battery technology is streets ahead of the curve and he continues to make and quickly bank the improvements.

    I could go on.

  24. Cud: “Musk’s Mars delusion doesn’t bother me because nothing will happen.”

    I asked you a very simple question; At what point do you admit you were wrong?

    Because if you can’t put forward a failure condition to your assertions, even after 20 years of being proven wrong again and again and again, then you’re no better than a cult.


  26. BK says:
    Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 7:17 pm

    frednk
    Musk has a huge advantage in a number of areas –
    – the vehicle’s design means that far fewer individual parts are used, thereby drastically reducing the assembly labour
    – he is building greenfield factories all over the world at a great rate and these factories are designed in a way that they have high levels of automation
    – the opposition manufacturers are highly invested in plant, equipment and experience that are not effectively able to match Musk’s methods
    – Musk’s battery technology is streets ahead of the curve and he continues to make and quickly bank the improvements.

    I could go on.

    I’m thinking of buying a Kona because I think it is better value for money. Can’t get a Tesla in under 12 months and a Kona in under 9.

  28. BK
    Musk’s battery technology is streets ahead of the curve and he continues to make and quickly bank the improvements.

    Tesla batteries are designed & produced by Panasonic
    EV battery technology is very competitive & rapidly evolving

    According to a comprehensive report published this morning ( 14 July 2022) by research firm Bloomberg Intelligence, Tesla will hold its global crown for EV sales for the next 18 months but will then be usurped by Volkswagen electric vehicles. The full BEV outlook report predicts that many legacy automakers will lag in sales through 2025, but Volkswagen is on track to overtake Tesla’s production volume by 2024.

    VW has invested in Swedish Northolt battery technology..
    Musk has his own recipe for KoolAid

    The EV market will explode, enough room for all.. Tesla will be a bit player.

  30. interesting sharmer with hughes who since she attackt miller and attacked grace tame over morrisons wife is being used as the liberals attack dog close to allix hawke sharmer being with her while she attacks modern liberals branding when he was the first to rebrand this way is interesting how ever looks like hill get marise paynes senate when she resigns very soon

  31. sceptic: ” Tesla will be a bit player.”

    Uh-huh. Any day now. Yep. Juuuuust around the corner. You’ll see.

    It’s like trying to talk to trumpers about elections. There’s always some new ‘report’ or ‘analysis’ that proves that they were right aaaalll along, even after years of failure. But it’s not like all of the other times I have been wrong over the past 20 years. This time, it’s ‘different’.

    To which I always ask the same question: “At what point do you admit you’re wrong?” Because if you can’t voice any condition in which you will admit you’re wrong, facts are irrelevant, and you might as well be arguing about the existence of xenu with a cultist. Same energy.

  32. hues was sent out buy morrison when pm was attacked buy former senator conie wells to say she should be greatful she did not get rolled by alex Hawke in 2016 when he wanted to install her and also made an appearence on sky news to say that if Morrison lost it would be all matt keans fault for campaigning against deaves so now the first person to abandon liberal branding and adopt new liberals branding in sharmer stands with hughes while she attacks his fellow mps who tried that stunt willson phelinski etc but its okay beaus hill get paynes senate seat when she quits

  33. plus williams speech in nsw parliament plus elliot as state bomb thrower seming to want to prelong train strike desbite the finance minister trying to resolve it so now the liberalsattack teachers well culture wars has failed hear 2gb hadley and jones tried to bring down gladys over abortion claiming it would distroy her government before that gay marige then deves trans gender wedge it seems desbite howm many time culture war us politics is rejected the libs stillwant to copy the us republicans

  34. the sentre right group hawke hughesellliot tend to come a cros very agresive she joind in 2001 when morrison mentored her then she was a lutenant to hawke ran in 2016 against wells then she had to resign as country vp because lived in sydney maybi shes trying to be the nw cash

  35. I heard Donald Trump on the news cheering the SCOTUS abortion decision in front of his escatic true believers.

    Now I strongly suspect that Donald Trump doesn’t give a stuff about abortion. Certainly the oligarchs and corporates who finance the Republican machine don’t give a stuff. They just want a regime that allows the to keep on making big money without having to bother too much with tax or regulation. All the fuss over abortion, moral panic over immigration and all the other culture war palava is there to bring in the numbers at voting time. After all, the rules don’t apply to them, just to the ordinary people.

    So if you’re a fetus or you’re terminally ill, the Repuplicans will strive officiously to keep you alive. In between, you’re on your own.

  36. at least pence has been a life time cristion hard liner signed a ban on abortion when goviner and is sceen as one of theone of the strongist social conservatives the media trying to paint him as a hearow for followingt he constatution he served as vice president foor 4 years stood by when trump made raceist coments yet because he followed the law the media protend he is some hearow and the goergia goviner who whilesince trumps los has lead the charge after democrats tookhis states 2 senate seats especial with rafil warnock to made it difficult for minories and african americans to vote to supres democrat votes to hopehis party

  37. Mavis @ #1853 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 7:54 pm

    This is an excellent critique on how zealots on the SCOTUS bench are remaking the US polity in their own image:

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/the-radical-reign-of-clarence-thomas-20220626-p5awon.html

    Something will have to give.

    (Originally published in the NYT)

    The only solution when the law is wrong is to turn to politics.

    How did we get here? Maureen Dowd has the history of it. My take on it is that politicians are instinctively drawn to the power of ambiguity. Ambiguity diffuses opinion. Ambiguity is a fig leaf. It side-lines issues and bogs down discussion and thereby bogs down progress. What the SCOTUS did in the last two weeks removes the Republican fig leaf, and what’s underneath “aint pretty”.

    That’s going to be a problem for the GOP, not just at the mid terms, but also afterwards. These are known GOP appointments. They unambiguously articulate GOP values and draw big red lines under GOP decisions everywhere. The GOP can’t hide from them. Their only recourse is to double down the ugly, loud and proud. They will draw the response.

    The mid terms are going to be ugly.

  38. shumer is a terible senate leadershoud of coppied mckonals formular to block connie barits nominationg arguing it was to close to election like mckonal did foor obama in stead the democrats try to be civel and negociatethey need a centerist but a person that sticks to the party and dont follow the oldworking maybi clobitcher would be a better leader

  39. P1: “Oh, I don’t know. Your online “discussions” always seem to.”

    You couldn’t argue your way out of a wet paper bag with a pair of scissors. What ‘seems’ to you always turns out to be the opposite of reality, so I’ll take that as a compliment.

  40. blair tried similar becam pm being being torey light whic now has left uk labor a mes split maybi rebranding as nu labor and abandoning progresive policies may not do his party good in the end now STarmer is trying same tacdicks corbin was to extreme but they need a sentre leader maybi leca nandie

  41. Mavis,
    I just read an article in the NYT by a former clerk of Sonia Sotomayor about the way the Maine legislature got around an adverse ruling by the SCOTUS.
    ‘There’s a Way to Outmaneuver the Supreme Court and Maine has Found It ‘.
    By Aaron Tang

    It shows how Democrats don’t have to expand the court but simply pre-empt a Ruling and counter it in a way that stymies its intent.

  42. With the divisions in the USA we here in Australia need to be very, very careful

    The same far right demographic, hiding behind religion are at work in Australia

    Witness the Liberal Party Senators comments to the Sydney Institute

    This far right demographic using religion has infiltrated the Liberal Party State branches which they now control

    Fortunately, in Australia, the “LNP” is in opposition in all but NSW and Tasmania, including landslide results against them

    We need to keep them there so that Australia does not replicate the USA experience and outcome

  43. Hues also blamed the trans gender debate for the los as a distraction from thethe former governments national security scare campaign on china and turnbull for religous discrimination bill desbite the fact he did not do any thing about it and morrison bought it on at last minute to please abetz and sen wells not retired

  44. She forgot to mention that herno one mentiond trans gender until hawke and morrison picked deaves out of the blue also said moderits like sharmer mis lead morrison and only the right wing are allowed the floor moderits should just shut up and do what there told and abott was to blame for allix hakwe distroying the party buy imposing deaves and others becaus the state egzecutive has to many members and his sentre right faction cant get what they want becaus kean and peretett moved against him so she is good for labor appointed shadow climate spokesman and says climate change does not matter

  45. also said in her speech that turnbull was to blame for morrison bringing on the religious discrimination admitting it was a distraction and un nesesary but said moderits mis lead morrison when he tried to bulley them in a meeting when he demandid archer say she would suport the bill and would not cros the floor while allowing renick tospread anti covid lies and backed hansons bill said the right are allowed to cros the floor because its a sentre right policy but modderits have to toe the oficial lyne said abot to blame for hawke imposing deaves and trans gender caused teels to winn even though hawke and morrison bought up the ishue out of nowhere

  46. said trans gender debate distracted the government from its campaign on national security and economy said hawke had to impose candaddates becaus abotts reform ment the halke group no longer had the numbers and hawke would not get his hand picked candadates up and party members should acsept having candadates hand picked

  48. Steve777 @ #1885 Sunday, June 26th, 2022 – 8:14 pm

    I heard Donald Trump on the news cheering the SCOTUS abortion decision in front of his escatic true believers.

    Now I strongly suspect that Donald Trump doesn’t give a stuff about abortion. Certainly the oligarchs and corporates who finance the Republican machine don’t give a stuff. They just want a regime that allows the to keep on making big money without having to bother too much with tax or regulation. All the fuss over abortion, moral panic over immigration and all the other culture war palava is there to bring in the numbers at voting time. After all, the rules don’t apply to them, just to the ordinary people.

    So if you’re a fetus or you’re terminally ill, the Repuplicans will strive officiously to keep you alive. In between, you’re on your own.

    I don’t think Trump is in favour of abortion. (Otherwise he would have dropped the mothers of his children.) And I don’t think he has interfered with their preference.

    Apart from the marriage thing, though, I don’t think he cares.

    He just went along, like the dupe he was/is, with Mitch McConnell.

  49. https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/video-walrus-class-submarine-replacement-program/

    Hmmmm……… looky looky in this article.

    “We tried to interview the three contenders for the Walrus-class submarine replacement program of the Royal Netherlands Navy. Saab and Naval Group pitched their proposal while TKMS declined our request for an interview…

    00:37 – Saab & Damen A26 NL submarine
    03:41 – Naval Group Black Sword submarine (conventional Barracuda)
    07:19 – TKMS Type 212CD E submarine”

    So, looks like the Attack Class (probably minus US weapons and combat system) has morphed into the “Black Sword”.

    Interesting. 🙂

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