Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
It looks like Albo knows the voice will never get up as he will not be able to offer anything sensible to the Coalition but going it alone in a referendum and getting smashed…I can’t see the upside for him does he then go to the next election and say look we tried.
Albo is making a few bad decisions in just the last week or so, I say Albo as this is not the ALP he is a bit of an autocrat which I did not have him pegged as, obviously not a consensus leader in the mould of Hawk. I wonder who his main advisors are. Chalmers, Gallagher and Wong, Plibersek has really pissed him off she is definitely in the outhouse…maybe it is just that she is the most obvious alternative. I would say it is Chalmers now anyway.
There is zero question as to whether people are going to die colonizing Mars. It is literally the point of colonization to live there permanently… until you die.
By the rationale of the small-minded squealers, we should have never ventured from our caves. Too dangerous. The fact that you have a folder of such images cud is… very cult-like.
Steelydan making bold predicions on the legislative consensus of the new ALP government before they’ve even sat in parliament for a single day. It’s almost like you made your decision about what you believed before there was any evidence whatsoever to support it. Kinda like everything else ya say. No real basis in reality, just mindless anti-ALP shit-slinging, hoping that some of it can stick to the walls.
EDIT: Got mixed up with Steelydan and Taylormaid…
Pisays:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 10:36 pm
Taylormaid making bold predicions on the legislative consensus of the new ALP government before they’ve even sat in parliament for a single day. It’s almost like you made your decision about what you believed before there was any evidence whatsoever to support it.
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You do not have to be that bold the ALP are an easy read.
What you should be focusing on danny boy, is the crater that used to be the LNP blue-ribbon seats.
Pi
No one is going to die colonising Mars because it isn’t going to happen.
A realistic exploratory mission, yes.
Eventually any colony has to become self sufficient or it isn’t a colony, at best merely an outpost.
There are two problems. First, Mars is a dead world with no biosphere. One would need to be built sufficient to support the minimum population that could sustain itself at the level of technology to maintain the biosphere indefinitely. And that’s the second problem. The minimum self-sustaining population at even our current level of tech is huge. It will need to be a huge biosphere.
I can’t see how it can be done. So a resupplied outpost maybe, but no colony.
(But it’s goodnight. Happy to pick it up another day.)
Cud: “No one is going to die colonising Mars because it isn’t going to happen. ”
Literally zero people care what your opinion is on this subject. Not a single person will be affected no matter what you believe. It’s like you’re shouting at the sky to your god hoping for some validation. The fact that you feel so driven to voice this opinion is very…. cult-like.
Late Riser: “Mars is a dead world with no biosphere.”
Mars has an atmosphere that is full of carbon actually. Very helpful for making rocket fuel in what is called the sabatier process. It’s about 2% of the density of the earth’s atmosphere.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabatier_reaction#Manufacturing_propellant_on_Mars
Late Riser: “I can’t see how it can be done. ”
With 10 million tonnes of cargo, that’s how. The plan is to build a thousand of those ships. Each ship takes between 100 and 150 tonnes of cargo with them. Each ship does a return trip 10 times. It is expected that the fuel for the trip will be under five million dollars.
Pi
You’re doing your best to illustrate my point about Elon cultists. Thank you.
The problem with any colonisation requirement is fuel. That’s the primary thing any space colony of whatever sort needs, whether it is Mars, the Moon, asteroids, or habitats like O’Neill cylinders. Once you can source enough fuel, or have the ability to generate more fuel than it takes to build the fuel generation system, everything else becomes possible. Every space industry you have will gravitate to where that is happening, or things that facilitate it.
Eventually I can see these facilities like ‘road stops’ between launch windows, primarily housing fuel. The funny thing is that it will be easier (in delta-v) to fuel spacecraft at the Moon from Mars than it will from Earth. Mars->Earth/Moon transfer = 6.39. Earth->Earth/Moon transfer = 12.52. This is primarily because the delta-v required to launch from Mars is about 1/3rd that of launching from Earth. Getting from Earth is the hard part. Once you’re at LEO everything becomes easier.
Cargo starships can use a Venus gravity assist to shuttle between Earth and Mars. This is, in fact, how many research craft are sent to the outer solar-system. They’re not bound by the Hohmann launch window that crewed starships would be. And time is irrelevant when all you have is time, starships and machines that are making rocket fuel 100% of the time. Eventually everything is full.
Cud: “You’re doing your best to illustrate my point about Elon cultists. Thank you.”
You’re doing your very very best to illustrate my point about anti-musk cultists. Thankyou.
Meanwhile, in spite of your wailing and gnashing of teeth, SpaceX continues to dominate space launch capabilities, and they now have approval to launch their Starship prototype. Five years ago you cultists were screaching about how musk was never going to be able to develop a re-usable launch system, and what could he possibly know about building space-rockets?
You people never stop being wrong, and no matter how many times you’re proven wrong, you just keep on saying the same thing again and again and again and again and again. Very very cult-like. It’s like you’re praying to some god somewhere for a reality that doesn’t exist.
Late Riser
The fact that he is defending the indefensible is a pretty good illustration of the mindset of a cultist. When pressed, the ultimate defense is “But Elon is superhuman and everything he says is Gospel”.
And yes, you’re right about the sheer scale involve in establishing a technological civilisation on another planet. You’re talking thousands of materials, tens of thousands of skills and process and hundreds of thousands of parts. A multi-trillion dollar undertaking.
Even before you get to that point, there’s two other things you need to do that are in the order of implausible and ludicrous. One is the tens of billions needed to research, develop and test the technology needed for long endurance space flight. The other is the hundreds of billions needed to establish the industrial scale mining and processing infrastructure – and the multi-megawatt nuclear generation and energy distribution system needed to refuel just one Starship sized vehicle.
The fact that otherwise rational human beings actually believe in this says a lot about Elon’s cult power.
Pi
Cults of all kinds demonstrate exactly the same defensive responses to “outsiders”. Thanks again for illustrating my point.
Pisays:
Sunday, June 26, 2022 at 10:44 pm
What you should be focusing on danny boy, is the crater that used to be the LNP blue-ribbon seats.
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Try to keep up. To a man not a single Coalition person I know wants them and that is the noise coming out of the Liberal party HQ the amount of money required to win them back compared to spending that in aspirational seats which is where the real Liberal voter is anyway, silly to even try. These are seats where the average Poll Bludger lives. Does it make it harder to win yep bigtime. But once having to pay your car registration does not make you wince you have little to offer in way of common sense for the average Australian. What happens to that block I don’t know but then again I do not care about them as a group of people. Sure it will suck if the ALP and the Teals form a Coalition to Govern but we will just have to win with people who are trying hard to make a life for themselves.
cud: “Cults of all kinds demonstrate exactly the same defensive responses to “outsiders””
You’ve just spent hours trying to fashion defensive responses to people who don’t subscribe to the beliefs of your cult. You literally have folders of memes to help you build support for your cult-like scriptures. The fact that you feel a burning desire to voice these cult-like pronouncements on subjects that you assert have no interest to you demonstrates how deeply embedded those belief structures are. You might as well be wearing a sign and carrying a bell.
Cud: “One is the tens of billions needed to research, develop and test the technology needed for long endurance space flight. ”
You people were saying exactly the same thing as a justification for why spacex wouldn’t be supplying crewed missions to the space station not even five years ago. Now they are literally the ONLY organisation providing that service. You have zero understanding of this subject.
Me: “What you should be focusing on danny boy, is the crater that used to be the LNP blue-ribbon seats.”
Steelydan : “To a man not a single Coalition person I know wants them”
lol. Maybe you should ask some women.
Steelydan
If the Liberals give up on its heartland now held by the teals then it will be in opposition for a long time because the Liberals need 18 seats.
I think the message from this election is that people are becoming disenchanted with the major parties and they need to start delivering to remain relevant.
With the rump of Liberals left I think they are a moribund party that is likely to be replaced by actual centrists like the teals.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Monday, June 27, 2022 at 12:54 am
Steelydan
If the Liberals give up on its heartland now held by the teals then it will be in opposition for a long time because the Liberals need 18 seats.
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Look if economy tanks the Teals will return. Only a major economic scare will bring the Teal seats back. The Liberal party will do their research and if seats do not look likely then they will not spend money if it costs the same money to win one as three other seats why give them a go. These seats are no longer heartland. As I said most are saying good riddance.
It comes down to this. Labor should have six years, they have 18 months to put in a good energy policy 3 years for prices to have stabilised and heading down and 6 years for electricity prices to be 15 to 20% less than they are now obviously inflation needs to be taken into account. Labor has another 6 months of saying that the Coalition has had no energy policy for 10 years and the public will allow them this grace period after that they start to to get angry about their increasing power bills.
I know the Labor party they cant get laid in a whore house with a fist full of fifties. They have placed themselves between a rock and a hard place they must go Green but that is years off stabilising the available energy and making it affordable. Industry must pay for it and Labor must hand over fist to pay for it all to be set up. There is not even a working plan on how this will occur.
Labor sets up a system that people see is working they win if it keeps bungling along like this to the whim of the current energy market and she is all over red rover. Clock is ticking 18 months and another continuing energy spike or people are still paying big for energy and labor is gone. Talked a big game now fix the problem.
The ALP first preference vote went backwards in the last election. The Coalition can get the 6 % first preference votes back they are out there. The ALP went backwards in an election where the Coalition is on the nose if the votes were their for the Labor party they would have picked them up in the last election but they could not. Had to rely on 19.58 % making their way back. From an opposition looking at the numbers it looks very good. That is why the 2pp and the Teals are being talked up because if you drill into the numbers it does not look good.
New thread.