Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
Setting a low Barilaro.
He likes to use his articles as an outlet for his technicolour intestinal fortitude.
Jan 6 @ #152 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 2:52 pm
Like Coorey and Probyn, this bloke needs to get out of the bubble for his own mental health well-being.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #150 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 2:29 pm
You mean this?
Why would anyone not like finally giving Labor some backbone and ambition?
Player One
Exceed, OMG ! The Sky After Dark people will be using that interview to scare their viewers, proof the Teals are crazed climate change fanatics 😆
George ‘Bookcase’ Brandis is now a professor at ANU.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7790528/former-senior-liberal-appointed-to-anu-role-as-professor/?cs=14329
BK, if you’re still reading, I agree with your assessment of the 4th J6C public hearing. It takes you close to tears, blurry.
For anyone who is interested you can watch it all here.
https://youtu.be/xa43_z_82Og?t=652
https://january6th.house.gov/legislation/hearings
And the target list (for prosecution) has expanded, as named by Cheney in her closing remarks.
Trump, Giuliani, Eastman, Meadows, Stone, Flynn, Bannon, Navarro
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusiness%2Feconomics%2Flowes-message-take-a-blow-on-the-chin-for-the-economy%2Fnews-story%2F42fd160c5406c52fe5dfc2f0aad12948&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=dynamic-hot-control-score&V21spcbehaviour=append
Oh so we ‘wage slaves’ caused inflation then ? That’s funny our wages have been going nowhere for years, when not going backwards . Wages share of the economy has been shrinking and company profit share of it going up but hey, inflation, it’s the pleb’s who must be made to pay.
Thank goodness Rudd was here when the GFC hit. Otherwise we’d have followed the UK and US. Austerity for the peasants , bail outs for the corporatocracy., bailing out the very people who caused it.
.
Late Riser
I’m glad I’m not the only one so moved.
any news on department heads foor federal government ulhman should join sky news
Segeant Schulz makes it to the ACT Greens:
https://citynews.com.au/2022/__trashed-2/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Uhlmanwas unhapppy when sky news and 2gb plotted against turnbull because he was woried turnbull would go and shortin would winn
citizen at 3:27 pm
He can lecture them on all the nifty legal tricks and dissembling he used dealing with Timor Leste maritime borders -Witness K- Bernard Collaery etc
Aaron newton at 3:47 pm
I think Uhlmann has been angling for a gig there for quite some time. He’s being saying all the right stuff to fit in with the ‘After Dark’ crew for a while. It would be great there, no need to even pretend to be balanced, just sit back collecting Rupe’s coin for letting your natural inner arsehole run free.
New Departmental secretaries.
Kathryn Campbell SACKED:
https://twitter.com/KJBar/status/1539489963754274817
citizen, poroti
“Former attorney-general George Brandis to join ANU National Security College”
As a Professor! While Julie Bishop is ANU Chancellor… This is one of the worst rort appointments I have seen in years. What is next? Barnaby Joyce to the Family Court?
Consider Brandis’ qualifications for this academic job:
– a background in commercial law (appointed SC and QC while in parliament)
– no PhD
– no qualifications (any level) in security, history or strategic studies
– no tertiary academic record in research or teaching
– a total of two professional publications… on Australian Liberalism
– 4 years as AG; never served as Defence or Foreign Affairs Minister
Academic positions normally have position descriptions. How did Brandis meet them? Who was on the selection committee? They could have attracted somebody world ranked with that position.
Professorships draw applicants from around the world. How can ANU justify this? It is an abuse of power, and a waste of taxpayer dollars.
This is the spin. ANU mix together mention of national security and law. Except Brandis never made any national security decisions. Most of his committee work in parliament was in finance.
https://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/leading-lawmaker-george-brandis-joins-anu
https://www.pm.gov.au/media/announcement-new-department-secretaries
Socrates, all political parties have the electoral roll with voter’s age and phone number
Libs obviously think that an old pale male is more likely to vote Liberal
Player One @ #154 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 1:04 pm
The day Labor released it’s policy it seemed likely that they would exceed the target. Coal fired plants started to indicate that they would probably need to bring forward their closure dates.
billie
Thanks and good point. I straightened them out on my position.
They must be getting desperate if they are calling every male my age in Bragg.
Re Dutton: I’m a long way away here in the UK so be free to take this with a pinch of salt – though the flip side is that sometimes a look from a distance without all the ‘noise’ surrounding one, can be more incisive. You be the judges. However, my take is:
* The new ALP gov seems to be making the most of being the ones now in the bully pulpit, by using every policy speech to denigrate the state of X (whatever the topic of the day is) left by the last government, effectively rewriting history (whether correct or not, you be the judge). Some would say this is smart politics to deflect the blame before things go wrong, others may be turned off by the frequent talking down of their predecessors.
Therefore Dutton coming out fighting is understandable and a bid to challenge this narrative before it becomes entrenched and a general view takes hold (even amongst those that voted for the Coalition in 2022) that the 2013-22 government(s) became not merely tired but were really incompetent.
This would explain the claims by the other side that they “don’t mind if Dutton keeps fighting the last election”. I can actually see his logic, and why Labor might want to undermine it.
* Dutton needs to be careful to live up to what he said at the start and agree with the gov when they are right as well as call them out – however, he is keeping himself and the LNP in the news and the Morgan poll showing barely a honeymoon for Labour relative to the election result indicates Dutton is at least keeping the LNP relevant and the faithful onside.
* Dutton actually comes over quite knowledgeable and almost the ‘elder statesman’ these days. No-one need agree with his views to acknowledge this. That’s important for the politically unengaged (as most of the population are, in contrast to Bludgers), perceptions count for a lot.
* Dutton will need to keep pushing that ‘softer image’ his colleagues have kept talking about whilst remaining true to his conservatism, to be in with a chance of expanding the coalition’s voter pool rather than being seen to move to the centre but leave the base alienated.
* The first opposition leader of a party just out of government is rarely the one to take them back into government, but they have an important job of maintaining morale and keeping the party in the national conversation.
* Dutton was quite unpopular nationally prior to his appointment, but the new role offers some chance of a reset. My take so far is that he has not blown it, he has got over the 1st hurdle of not antagonising the ‘floating middle’ off the bat; but has a long way to go to actually win confidence and change perceptions.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #169 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 4:19 pm
The day Labor backed new fossil fuel extraction, it seemed unlikely that they would be able to even meet the target, let alone exceed it.
And Labor is now talking about subsidizing coal fired plants to keep them open.
Socrates
There was this shameful period. Bookcases claimed it was on ‘security’ grounds.
.
Brandis orders ASIO raids related to East Timor spying case
……..ASIO has cancelled the passport of a retired spy who’s preparing to give evidence in The Hague about what he says was his involvement in a covert operation to record Timorese ministers and officials in Dili in 2004.
https://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2013/s3904457.htm
Player One @ #172 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 2:25 pm
It’s a possibility for some, you don’t want them all closing until their output plus some, can be replaced.
How is that surprising in the transition phase?
“The former government was told to simplify claims processes for veterans three years ago, but made no decision to adopt the “significant” recommendations, a royal commission has heard.”
“During his time in the role, the number of veterans’ claims before the Department of Veterans’ Affairs grew from 12,000 to more than 57,000. Mr Chester told the royal commission the growth was due to the department being “a victim of its own success” in encouraging veterans to make compensation claims.”
Oh I get it, this was a storm cloud with a silver lining. Further proof that even with weeks in opposition to reflect on their sins the Coalition continue to be delusional.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-22/qld-royal-commission-into-defence-and-veteran-suicide-townsville/101169322
I just can’t get my head around the Barilaro thing. Surely you can’t be that brazen. Surely… surely?
BREAKING: UK reports annual inflation of 9.1% in May, the highest in 40 years
Final two-party preferred for the election has worked out at Labor 52.13%, Coalition 47.87%, a swing to Labor of 3.66%
BTSays
I think you’ve been exceedingly generous in your assessment of Dutton.
The new Dept secretaries are out. What are your thoughts @aaronnewton? I know you have been looking out for them. Some very uninspiring appointments and reappointment in my view.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #174 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 4:33 pm
So Labor’s is transitioning from coal and gas to … more coal and gas?
Some transition.
statesman? Dutton?
yeah nah.
Player One @ #181 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 2:44 pm
Who’s said anything about more coal?
Uhlmann is a disgrace. His nightly rants on Channel 9 are unbecoming for someone filling Oakes shoes. Thought I read he was going soon.
>Dutton actually comes over quite knowledgeable and almost the ‘elder statesman’ these days.
Rubbish. His intervention on the subs was idiotic and called out by virtually everyone. His insiders interview a few weeks ago was a train wreck. It just didn’t get much attention because nearly everybody is giving politics a break.
Don’t get your news from the Murdoch media – only lib rusted-ons read it.
Ventured into twitter land… Begads that Bandt flag thing is as awful as everyone expected it was going to be. Forget about the intent. Intent is irrelevant by now. It was dumb.
”Final two-party preferred for the election has worked out at Labor 52.13%, Coalition 47.87%, a swing to Labor of 3.66%”
The only better results for Labor since WW2 are 1946 (Chifley, 54.1%), 1972 (Whitlam, 52.7%), 1983 (Hawke, 53.2%) and 2007 (Rudd, 52.7%). The latter three were the only other occasions since WW2 that Labor has won Government from Opposition.
150/151 seats have been declared – the last one being Connor (WA – Liberal).
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDefault-27966.htm
Well given that the liberals have ‘only’ won from opposition in 1949, 1996 and 2013 (1975 does not count) I think the labor record is pretty good.
Re flag thing: Imagine Bandt in a position of responsibility if there was a military crisis. ya wanna laugh… But ya don’t. How does that work? There is a significant cohort of people in oz that salute that thing fella. Some might even name it a calling. Did ya even once think of them?
Dumb.
We are basically resuming our transition to renewables from where we were in 2008 except that we now have a fleet of coal-fired power stations 14 years older that are falling apart at the seams. Why? Because no progress has been made on phasing coal out since then. This is gross negligence on the part of the late and unlamented Coalition Government that they should to be made to wear like a crown of thorns.
This is the situation we face. We can’t make up for a lost decade and a half in a couple of years. We are stuck with coal and gas for the time being as we get the transition to renewals going while keeping the lights on.
No reports yet from the NSW Bludgers’ Chinatown luncheon?
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid says:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 5:05 pm
Well given that the liberals have ‘only’ won from opposition in 1949, 1996 and 2013 (1975 does not count) I think the labor record is pretty good.
____________
Well you are unlikely to win more from opposition if you govern for a decade each time, and multiple decades in the case of 1949.
I must issue a correction on the TPP Guessing Game. Previous winners (who guessed 52.0/48.0) may keep their respectful hat-tips, but the new winners are as follows.
52.13 / 47.87 Actual
52.20 / 47.80 (1st) Geetroit (May-16 17:45)
52.20 / 47.80 (2nd) SA Bludger (May-16 17:59)
52.20 / 47.80 (3rd) Poll Bogan (May-18 17:53)
The corrected winners are closer by 0.06% (0.13% versus 0.07% away from the actual). As a reminder, the tie breaker was who guessed first, and is shown in parenthesis after each the winner’s name.
https://twitter.com/AntonyGreenElec/status/1539495651817721856
EDIT: 48.0
I imagine that shout-back radio and Murdoch columnists are going completely spare over the flag thing.
Well you are unlikely to win more from opposition if you govern for a decade each time, and multiple decades in the case of 1949.
When Australian Governments change, they tend to stay changed. Times in office of each side (rounded) during the past century – counting from 1922, by which time our current two and a bit party system, compulsory voting and preferential were in place:
Coalition 7 years
Labor 2 years
Coalition 10 years
Labor 8 years
Coalition 23 years
Labor 3 years
Coalition 7 years
Labor 13 years
Coalition 12 years
Labor 6 years
Coalition 9 years
Labor ??
Thanks for that Steve777.
BK
“No reports yet from the NSW Bludgers’ Chinatown luncheon?”
Still sorting out the bill.
“No reports yet from the NSW Bludgers’ Chinatown luncheon?”
Still sorting out the bill.
_____
Given the time, I expect the drinks will be more than the food. 🙂
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #183 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 4:47 pm
Ed Husic. The actual words he used were “coal or gas” in the “medium to longer term”. You might be optimistic and interpret that to mean coal only in the medium term and gas in the long term, but there is no doubt he means fossil fuels of some kind in the long term. So, as I said – some transition. Gas is not meant to be used to transition to more gas – it is meant to be used to transition to renewables. And it seems he has left the option of more coal open as well.
Or do you think he misspoke or was misquoted? Let’s both hope it’s the latter and someone clarifies. But he said that this morning and AFAIK no-one has yet clarified what he said, and of course we do have State Labor in Victoria and Queensland both addicted to coal, and Federal Labor with coal seats in NSW to defend as well … so it does not seem unreasonable to assume he actually meant what he actually said.
David Rowe