Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
Oof Rowe, that’s strong.
Bluey was .38% out on the 2PP and a seat out on the House tally for Labor. He was on the money when he predicted that the Senate would turn out to be a dog’s breakfast.
P1. A question for you …
Bluey was ‘incentivized’ , perform or it’s……….
p
True. Bluey loves squid rings.
BK @ #191 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 5:09 pm
I had to drink a whole bottle of cider on my own! Everyone else preferred the plonk!
The bill has been sorted. Excess donations are going to a homeless charity on the Central Coast. 🙂
Andrew_Earlwood @ #203 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 6:03 pm
Sure. Unless it is about your childish and unhealthy obsession with how I voted, which is tedious to everyone here and borders on sociopathic bullying.
Other than that, feel free to ask anything.
”
Pisays:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 5:07 pm
Re flag thing: Imagine Bandt in a position of responsibility if there was a military crisis. ya wanna laugh… But ya don’t. How does that work? There is a significant cohort of people in oz that salute that thing fella. Some might even name it a calling. Did ya even once think of them?
Dumb.
”
Re flag thing:
Due to the stupid flag stunt by Bandt, he made it very difficult for Albanese government deal with Greens directly because LNP will immediately remind people that ALP is dealing with a Flag hater.
Think about that
Player One @ #199 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 3:31 pm
You are functionally illiterate.
Nothing there implies that we will be burning more coal then than we are now.
It’s just a clear statement of the obvious that coal power will be part of our energy mix until we are in a position to create enough power without it.
As more renewables come on line coal will become more and more uneconomical to use, so there may be a need to support the last few power stations why we add the final renewables needed to supplant them.
I think David Shoebridge as of this Friday should be pretty happy with himself as Bandt has made his first strike out of three. I can only see more brain farts from here before Shoebridge starts shadow shadow boxing for the Greens Leadership. I was Shoebridge I would be openly talking about how the NSW Branch is a drag on the Greens Federally and stunts like Bandt that allows for combined vote of the nutters and the bigots to be higher than the Greens in Western Sydney.
What people outside NSW don’t understand that Shoebridge is a decent performer with an established track record that is superior to Bandt’s
I think David Shoebridge as of this Friday should be pretty happy with himself as Bandt has made his first strike out of three. I can only see more brain farts from here, before Shoebridge starts shadow shadow boxing for the Greens Leadership. If I was Shoebridge I would be openly talking about how the NSW Branch is a drag on the Greens federally and stunts like Bandt allows for combined vote of the nutters and the bigots to be higher than the Greens in Western Sydney.
What people outside NSW don’t understand that Shoebridge is a decent performer with an established track record that is superior to Bandt’s
poroti:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 3:54 pm
[‘He can lecture them on all the nifty legal tricks and dissembling he used dealing with Timor Leste maritime borders -Witness K- Bernard Collaery etc.’]
I think you’ll find that Brandis declined to give his assent to the prosecution of Collarey, but Porter took it on with relish & almost indecent haste.
____________________________________
BT:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 4:22 pm
[‘* Dutton was quite unpopular nationally prior to his appointment, but the new role offers some chance of a reset. My take so far is that he has not blown it, he has got over the 1st hurdle of not antagonising the ‘floating middle’ off the bat; but has a long way to go to actually win confidence and change perceptions.’]
I note you’re posting from afar but Dutton’s chances of going any further than the LOTO are almost zilch. Above the Brisbane line, he’s probably popular, but elsewhere, save for the extreme Right, he’s as ineffectual as a knitted condom, as popular as a bacon sanger at a Bar Mitzvah. The link under, authored by Bongiorno, encapsulates why he’s merely a stop-gap measure, learning nothing from the election. He’s a clone of Abbott, thinking when you’re on a good thing, stick to it.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2022/06/21/paul-bongiorno-peter-dutton/
C@t,
Nice 🙂
Did you have a handy ALDI bag for the excess 😉
Also, Dom Perottet contributed $225 towards the cost of our lunch. Damn decent of him.
A beautiful set of numbers…
All 151 lower house seats officially declared
More on the new parliament from AAP:
The results of the federal election have been made official, with all 151 lower house seats being declared.
The Western Australian seat of O’Connor, won by Liberal Rick Wilson, was the last electorate to be declared by the Australian Electoral Commission.
The declaration on Wednesday confirmed the new Labor government will have 77 seats in the 47th parliament, the Coalition will have 58 and the Greens four. There will be 12 seats shared among minor parties and independents.
In the Senate, the government will have 26 seats and the opposition 32, with Greens senators numbering 12 and two seats each for the Jacqui Lambie Network and One Nation.
The remaining two seats have been declared for the United Australia Party and independent David Pocock.
With the results confirmed by the commission, the final two-party preferred vote was Labor on 52.13 per cent, compared to the coalition’s 47.87 per cent.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #210 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 6:36 pm
Has anyone ever told you you are cute when you get caught out?
If so, they were lying.
Player One @ #218 Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 4:52 pm
How are they lying?
The NSW Greens are ruthless. Watch your back, Adam.
Greg Rudd,
Interesting comment. I have been wondering about Bandt’s hardline political theatre.
The Greens have elected new senators, and Bandt will share the lower house Greens representation with three other QLD members. Are all these new people, many who will have elected because their constituents want stronger action on climate change, happy with Bandt making “The flag” the issue? Or will they want the Greens to deliver on the bread and butter issues they were elected to deal with : Climate change and an integrity commission?
Is Rhiannon a skeleton in Showbridge’s closet?
sprocket_
The NSW Greens are ruthless. Watch your back, Adam.
Yep! Hall Greenland featured in Rats in the Ranks, and he and his network have an ample supply of icepicks to deal with anyone who fancies themselves Trotsky.
D & M,
Hal Colebatch. And he used to live up the road from me in a very beautiful house which I got to see when I was delivering the Census forms once. Spectacular views of Broken Bay and the Pacific Ocean.
so atkinson dumpt intirely and campbell sidelind to a junier role in defence atkinson was cormanns former chief off staff defence sort of makes sence as campbell was a former rezerve member davis as pm department head is not good as he has litel department expiernce other than qld in 1990s
Aaron Newton,
Glyn Davis has experience running a university so I think he’ll be able to adapt.
Barilaro’s appointment as NSW’s trade envoy to New York is a farce and Perrottet’s denial that he knew nothing of it is even more farcical. On a reputed salary of $500,000 plus allowances, it doesn’t get much worse than this, made all the worse at a time when graft is of the first order. And it should be noted that at his defamation trial, he said (wwtte) that he’d been so publicly humiliated by scurrilous allegations that he was fearful to step out. Perrottet will suffer dearly from this appointment, having the power to revoke but won’t. I can’t think why.
The demented stick insect is obviously freaking out about the Baril’s NY appointment. All the usual hand waving verbal diarrhoea to cover up.
” Barilaro’s appointment as NSW’s trade envoy to New York is a farce and Perrottet’s denial that he knew nothing of it is even more farcical.”
And yet no mention of the appointment on the landing pages on the National Rupert or the Sydney Rupert…
I hope the Sydney crew enjoyed their lunch. Well done Cat for organising it. Given his administrative skills, I think dear LR
should do likewise in Brisbane & surrounds – not meaning to put him on the spot?
C@t
And Hall Greenland was part of it as well. One of my best friends was part of Annandale branch at the time.
Mavis,
A great time was had by all!
It is such an odd move Mavis. They tried to bury it in all the fawning going on over their massive spendathon budget (whatever happened to deficits and financial management) and it has sort of worked. They think it will blow out and over a few days. Absent JB stepping down himself (and I doubt he will) Perrottet and Robin (Kean) have locked themselves in on it. Weird areas if you ask me. But I guess Channel 9 will get to the bottom of it. I read today that Liberal Ministers were outraged and it was this that has prompted action from Channel 9 papers. No word about the oppo or the public at large having issues with it. Just Liberal Ministers who are the guardians of what is right and proper.
Thanks for those who took the trouble to respond to me re my post on Dutton.
Though I have to say, in the absence of clear evidence being provided by you all (which I know is probably hard without more polls comparing Dutton now to Dutton prior to his election as LOTO) I’m not immediately provoked to change my view from afar.
If party unity is maintained that will be a big plus – and, I suspect, a big ask for very long – once that goes people will stop listening anyway regardless of how good / bad he is ( floating voters always turn away from divided parties) and he will be a lame duck.
BT from afar
Not sure if you can get the Insiders interview from last Sunday with Dutton. That may deflate your somewhat rosy picture of his abilities.
To the Sydney PB’ers. Pleased to hear you enjoyed your lunch and well done on the donation. Disappointed but, that you didn’t keep going until I arrive in Sin City tomorrow morning lol
Thanks everyone at the Sydney meetup. It was lovely to meet everyone. Thanks C@tmomma for organising and I cannot think of a better way to dispose of the excess funds!
dutto is as dead as the dodo 😆
Double-negatives being a thing, if you deny knowing nothing about it, doesn’t that mean you’re admitting to knowing all about it?
Thank you everyone for coming! Poll Bludger history is made by those who turn up! 😀
Of course, my favourite part of our lunch was Griff’s story about the unique brain cancer treatment he had a hand in doing the research for. But I’m biased towards that sort of thing. 🙂
Douglas and Milko @ #NaN Wednesday, June 22nd, 2022 – 7:31 pm
Ah! Such an unusual name and 2 of them together!
ParkySP
I’m not sure either but I can assure you I don’t have a particularly rosy view of Dutton’s abilities.
Maybe it’s just that a reasoned and balanced (accurate or otherwise) analysis of the current position provides such a contrast to the things otherwise said on this site about Dutton that are based on long-held views that are at the extreme end of negative, that it has the strange effect of making my post seem ‘rosy’. 🙂
”
Steve777says:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 7:16 pm
” Barilaro’s appointment as NSW’s trade envoy to New York is a farce and Perrottet’s denial that he knew nothing of it is even more farcical.”
And yet no mention of the appointment on the landing pages on the National Rupert or the Sydney Rupert…
”
All quiet on Rupert front. 🙂
ParkySP,
Such a pity you couldn’t have times it better. Maybe next time. 🙂
Post election, the losing party should accept that something they’ve been doing hasn’t resonated with the electorate and sit down and work out where they went wrong.
The Liberals under Dutton haven’t done this – instead, they’ve doubled down, and refused to admit that the last government made any mistakes at all.
There has been absolutely no sign that the new Dutton is in any way different from the old Dutton (which suggests very strongly that Dutton is incapable of change).
The Liberals face a very difficult task – they have to either regain the Teal seats or win new seats from Labor.
They don’t seem unable to understand the magnitude of it. They seem to think the electorate voted them out by accident.
I can’t understand how anyone – however distant they are – thinks that Dutton is performing well.
C@tmomma @ Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 7:48 pm
“Of course, my favourite part of our lunch was Griff’s story about the unique brain cancer treatment he had a hand in doing the research for. But I’m biased towards that sort of thing. ”
I was talking about the work done at the department I was at. I am a mere plebeian!
Zoomster
By referring to “anyone – however distant they are – ” I assume you mean me.
I never said Dutton was performing well, if you read my post again.
Is there no nuance on this site?
…I’ll add that I’ve tended to think that Dutton was not as bad as he’s been painted, but was rather someone put into tough portfolios and thus took the blame for decisions which were, in fact, collegial.
I’m beginning to change my mind, based on his total inability to present a softer self – or even just a different message.
Cashless debit credit card soon to be scrapped. You wont find many aboriginal woman and not a single older aboriginal woman who does not want to go back to cash but hey the way to hell is paved with good intentions. I wonder if they will look into the spike in domestic violence, gambling and drinking once woman are humbugged and robbed of their money in the communities once the card is removed. Of course they won’t.
Douglas and Milko:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 7:32 pm
[‘Mavis,
A great time was had by all!’]
Good. Was there any gossip that the site should be informed of? Did dear Andrew make it, also dear Shellbell, let alone dear BB? I once lived in Sydney, a veritable vector for tattle.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 7:48 pm
Of course, my favourite part of our lunch was Griff’s story about the unique brain cancer treatment he had a hand in doing the research for. But I’m biased towards that sort of thing.
_____________________
There would have been quite a bit of bragging going on I bet.
Not really my cup of tea. But anyway different strokes for different folks .
C@t,
Thanks again for organising the lunch and what a great bunch the attending bludgers ( and partners) were! Can’t wait for a repeat.