Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
the liberals will never learn frydenberg sort of reminds me of turnbull media talking fooor years about turnbull being born to rule and would be pm foor a decade and rival howard Speers used similar language on insiders when his defeatid saying basicly that Frydenberg dezerved lodo becaue he has wanted the job since he was 16 and is a goodfriend or somthing that may be so but desbite his media contacts frydenberg came a cros ad woodin on tv and unlike dutton did not present well even in friendly media he did give harvey norman job keeper they did not need
Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk
·
1h
A pretty stunning bond rally coming through… disinflation around the corner?
The vigilanties are banging the drums.
Australian 10 years 3.90%
Extent of hiking cycle being scaled back too
theCanberra buble tend to forget that desbite frydenbergs friendship with them it does not translate to the public as we make our minds up regardlis of what they say Frydenberg was rejected liberals tend to believe they can run former mps multiple times on the belief that we got it rongand would change our minds did not work fooor jorjina Downer who they ran in Mayo twice frydenberg and hunt lead the charge attacking andrews and victorian covid response and praizing gladys gthan speers is shocked the voters off cooyonggot rid off him
Economics seems pretty simple to me. In good times or bad – the answer is clearly wage restraint for middle and low incomes and never tax the rich or big profitable companies.
Always it’s working class productivity – never the capital class.
‘The Brexit effect Leavers didn’t expect: A rise in immigration .. By ending the free movement of people between the UK and Europe, Britain has unexpectedly created a record flow of migrant workers from lower-income countries’
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/the-brexit-effect-leavers-didnt-expect-a-rise-in-immigration/
Morning all. Thanks BK for the roundup. Good to see Marles being well received in India and the obvious happiness in our neighbors at our new government.
Apart from security and trade being improved, Labor might be able to help India and Australia by giving better access to travel arrangements that protect workers. If Indians move here with a visa that protects their rights to be paid a legal wage, it stops the Australian wage market being undermined. Then we get both the economic benefits of immigration without a wage race to the bottom.
“Douglas and Milko says:
Wednesday, June 22, 2022 at 9:36 pm”…
Many thanks for sharing your story and experience with Chile. I agree, it’s a wonderful country and Chileans are very good people: smart and determined, and yet with a great sense of sociality and humour. As I wrote, my link with Chile started in 1970, we arrived in Valparaiso in July (by ship, from Europe… just imagine) and then went to Santiago. Along the way I still remember the political graffiti that were already there in preparation for the September presidential election of that year. I have vivid memories of the ebullient environment leading up to the election and then Allende’s victory via a Congress vote (as he only got a relative, not an absolute, majority at the election). What happened next is part of the history books and I won’t be able to summarise it in a paragraph. I was there on the day of the coup (that infamous 11th of September 1973 – the Chilean 9/11) and endured the dictatorship until my wife (a Chilean) and myself left in early 1985 to go back to Europe.
Since then we have returned many times, visiting family and touring the country. The recent election of the progressive president Gabriel Boric has been a game changer and the popular movement behind him is real and strong. My wife’s family has been traditionally conservative, but the new generations are progressive/environmentalist, an interesting change, as back in the ’80s, when we left the country, my wife was the only progressive member of the family (and a bit of a “black sheep”)…. So, things do change, and I suspect that a similar change is occurring now in Australia, as the recent federal election suggests.
The $64 question, or probably a much larger dollar figure question is whether the Corruption of Thieves goes for reform or for recidivism.
Leopards meet spots?
I have two Chilean-Australian grandkids. Love them. Love the extended family that comes with the package.
The population of Somalia is well above the ability of its sand and rocks to deliver adequate food in normal times.
Add drought, food commodity prices, the opportunity costs of internal warfare, the opportunity costs of a failed state, Putin’s War and climate change and…
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/jun/22/somalia-the-worst-humanitarian-crisis-weve-ever-seen
Ray (UK) says:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 8:15 am
‘The Brexit effect Leavers didn’t expect: A rise in immigration .. By ending the free movement of people between the UK and Europe, Britain has unexpectedly created a record flow of migrant workers from lower-income countries’
Turns out the Conservative Manifesto essentially failed in practice through Brexit. Really just showed up the racism for what it really is/was. Skilled immigrants are still required in at least the same if not greater numbers. I can’t really see what the UK gained whereas the costs appear significant, especially in terms of trade and freedom of travel. Perhaps the lesson for all is be careful what we ask for, it’s never as simple nor positive as most think.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/the-brexit-effect-leavers-didnt-expect-a-rise-in-immigration/
In the Gruniad live blog: AAP is reporting that in a world first, Australian scientists have developed a device with “exquisite precision” that they say is a huge step towards a commercial quantum computer.
Australian scientists have joined atomic dots with “exquisite precision” to build a device they say is a huge step towards a commercial quantum computer.
In a world first, Silicon Quantum Computing on Thursday unveiled a quantum processor that integrates all the components of a classical computer chip but on an atomic scale.
Published in the journal Nature, the breakthrough comes two years ahead of their research schedule and less than a decade after the team made the world’s first single atom transistor.
Founder Michelle Simmons said traditional computers struggle to simulate even relatively small molecules due to the large number of possible interactions between atoms.
Professor Simmons said the atomic-scale circuit technology will allow the construction of quantum models for a range of new materials, for use in pharmaceuticals, materials for batteries, or catalysts.
To achieve the first quantum integrated circuit, three separate technological feats of atomic engineering were required.
The first was to create small dots of atoms of uniform size so that their energy levels aligned and electrons could easily pass through them.
The second was the ability to tune the energy levels of each dot individually, but also of all dots collectively, to control the passage of quantum information.
The third was the teams’ ability to control the distances between the dots with precision.
Charles Hill, a senior lecturer in quantum computation at the University of Melbourne, said the quantum devices used for this demonstration were made with sub-nanometre accuracy.
“This is a remarkable piece of engineering,” Dr Hill said.
This experiment paves the way for larger and more complex quantum systems to be emulated in future.
Prof Simmons said the milestone delivers on a challenge set 63 years ago by pioneering theoretical physicist Richard Feynman in his famous lecture Plenty of Room at the Bottom.
His invitation to enter a new field of study asserted that to understand how nature works, scientists must control matter at the atomic scale.
Proving this theory, the team has built an integrated circuit using atomic components in silicon.
“It won’t be long before we can start to realise new materials that have never existed before,” Prof Simmons said.
The “exquisite precision of the device” also proved their atomic manufacturing capabilities, she said.
To build the processor, the scientists had to integrate multiple atomic components within a single device, which was achieved at a facility in Sydney.
Not my field, but this seems like a pretty significant announcement.
Boerwar @ #308 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 8:04 am
What a stunning city Santiago is. Even during the military dictatorship – I saw it post plebiscite tho when hope was in the air.
Chile is one of three countries that had ‘revolutions’ (in a broad sense) less than a year after I was there. The Rose and the Tulip were the other two – I dont think they gave the Chilean transition to democracy a name.
”
Cronussays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 6:16 am
“ MPs are looking at whether the foreign affairs watchdog or ethics officials in the Cabinet Office could investigate Boris Johnson’s proposal to give a senior job to his then girlfriend in 2018, after the prime minister refused to deny having done so. Johnson fuelled speculation that he attempted to install Carrie Johnson, now his wife, as his chief of staff when foreign secretary after he declined to comment on the allegations at prime minister’s questions.”
He really is Teflon. How he can survive so many integrity scandals is truly astounding. Either Keir Starmer is hopeless or the British public (and certainly the Tories) are a deeply forgiving lot. Add Johnson to a dreadful economic situation and the Brits are truly heading down the drain at pace.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/carrie-johnson-unsavoury-political-attack-dominic-raab
”
Cronus
I think people of England (I am not including Scotland and Northern Ireland) are forgiving of BOJO because they want to live a carefree like BOJO and getaway with that i.e. do whatever you want to do and don’t face any consequences for their actions. The problem for them is that the world is colonised by them anymore from where they got their wealth and resources. They know that there will be consequences for their actions. But BOJO is repeatedly defying political gravity and they like what they see. He is fulfilling their wetdreams. Hence, they will forgive him come what may. And to an extent Morrison was forgiven quite a lot in Australia.
”
maxsays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 7:07 am
First question: How long have you been in love with Tony Abbott ?
——————
Second question: When you were clearly heard to say “we won” during the ABC federal election night coverage in each of 2013, 2016 and 2019, and “we lost” in 2022, how did you think you’d get away with it? Are you responsible for Fran Kelly and David Speers being clearly heard to say the same on each occasion?
”
🙂
Cronus at 8.41 re Brexit…
I can’t really see what the UK gained…
____________
But, but, they took back control of their ‘borders, money and laws’! Gotta be good! Rule Britannia, Britannia rules the waves…
Welcome back an Empire, er, Commonwealth, on which the Sun never sets…
Land of hope and glory, Mother of the free…
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759792/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Taking_back_control_of_our_borders__money_and_laws_while_protecting_our_economy__security_and_Union__1_.pdf
Brexit: most coherent policy eva!
Brexit was a massive con job – turkeys conned into voting for Christmas.
rhwombat at 8.55 re quantum computing breakthrough…
Now, will we actually progress towards commercialisation HERE or do what we usually do and watch the idea become a commercial reality overseas, so we can buy the finished product back and send profits overseas?
Just caught up with that report about two school girls who tried to stab their female teacher to death. Who would have thought?
Obviously they didn’t get the memo about violence being only a male thing.
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 7:27 am
Do we really need Alan Tudge in federal parliament any more?
”
I don’t prefer either Tudge or Frydenburg in the Australian Parliament. But if I am forced to choose between the two, I will choose Tudge (I know I know he was allegedly a womaniser, adulterer and allegedly a abuser) because Frydenburg is a Howard Liberal and not a Hewson Liberal.
Ray (UK) at 9.04
Tragically, a combination of ignorance/stupidity and racism/arseholery is not rare.
BTW, is today by-election day? How are things looking? Has Bojo sent (or at least tried to, if not for those nasty, undemocratic courts) enough people to Rwanda to turn the polls around?
”
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 8:38 am
The population of Somalia is well above the ability of its sand and rocks to deliver adequate food in normal times.
Add drought, food commodity prices, the opportunity costs of internal warfare, the opportunity costs of a failed state, Putin’s War and climate change and…
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/jun/22/somalia-the-worst-humanitarian-crisis-weve-ever-seen
”
But Somalia is not Ukraine. So nobody cares about Somalia.
Re upcoming British by-elections: according to Reuters…
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/north-south-uk-pm-johnson-faces-prospect-bruising-by-election-defeats-2022-06-21/
…the key issues are ‘cost of living, Brexit and immigration.’
I’m assuming ‘immigration’ is on the list only ’cause the Tories said so and they think it’s a vote winner for them. FFS.
Snappy Tom @ #321 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 12:13 am
By-elections Thursday, yes
Zero movement in the betting markets for weeks, no new polling for a couple of weeks .. who knows
”
Cronussays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 8:41 am
Ray (UK) says:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 8:15 am
‘The Brexit effect Leavers didn’t expect: A rise in immigration .. By ending the free movement of people between the UK and Europe, Britain has unexpectedly created a record flow of migrant workers from lower-income countries’
Turns out the Conservative Manifesto essentially failed in practice through Brexit. Really just showed up the racism for what it really is/was. Skilled immigrants are still required in at least the same if not greater numbers. I can’t really see what the UK gained whereas the costs appear significant, especially in terms of trade and freedom of travel. Perhaps the lesson for all is be careful what we ask for, it’s never as simple nor positive as most think.
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/the-brexit-effect-leavers-didnt-expect-a-rise-in-immigration/
”
Brexiters exploited colonial mindset of English people.
But to be fair to UK, it is/was not a immigrant country like USA, Australia, Canada and NZ, where there is special quota for skilled immigrants. All those people of colour you see in UK are from erstwhile colonies.
Where to parrot shoot Josh?
Latrobe or Deakin also come to mind. However Jason Wood increased his vote – really it was a case of his electorate pushing East an incorporating places like Koo Wee Rup and Nar Nar Goon & Sukkar is still young…
Anyway here are the Matt Golding Cartoons (SMAGE):
How can a flagpole (on the Sydney Harbour Bridge) cost $25million? Can someone please provide a breakdown of the costs and tell us who is milking the system.
Rod Eldridge, Derrinallum
#weatheronPB
Bright sky and bright leaves,
The grevilleas welcome two hungry birds.
I watch them, smiling.
I am not undermining your point Ven but there are other differences between Ukraine and Somalia. One is a very complicated civil war for example.
Ray
I think I first read that story 10 years ago! (and have read versions of it set in Australia – speaking a First language – and the US…)
UK Cartoons:
Great to hear that the Sydney bludgers had a lovely catch up!
In all seriousness is Adam Bandt losing his mind?
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/23/albanese-government-may-join-us-push-to-cut-global-methane-emissions-by-30
A pretty obvious attempt at “look over there” by Labor …
Yes, methane is important. But it is not the main game. However, our export industries are apparently more important than our welfare …
The reality is that Labor is intending to solve the problem of burning fossil fuels … by burning more fossil fuels – something which will also increase our methane emissions …
Labor seems to think the science on global warming doesn’t stack up …
But it is Labor’s policies that don’t stack up. A decade ago, gas was feasible as a quick and easy way to transition out of coal. But not now …
As I keep saying – some transition. Labor thinks burning more gas, but without simultaneously accelerating the shutdown of coal, is some kind of “transition” that will keep us below 1.5 degrees. But Labor have not been keeping up with current events. Australia has already warmed by 1.4 degrees:
https://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/en/changing-climate/national-climate-statement/
Oh, and by the way – that 1.4 degrees warming was being reported back in 2020. Australia will probably be at 1.5 degrees even before Labor gets the chance to warm their bums on the treasury benches.
Just how stupid do they believe we are?
Ray (UK) at 9.04
🙂 Particularly funny to anyone who has ever tried to read a Welsh signpost.
No matter what. Our esteemed media always report on Melb and Vic with a very negative slant.
It’s beyond the pale
The Age
@theage
·
7m
Melbourne is the only Australian city to make the 10 most liveable cities – but it could easily have missed out. |
@seanparnell
theage.com.au
Brisbane drops out of 10 most liveable cities (even with war in
I can add a small amount to Chilean reminiscences. Travelling for work I visited three times over a period of 25 years, the last time actually looking for work. Santiago, as others have noted, is a beautiful place. But travel north along the coast and then up into the mountains and the place is majestic. It gets into your bones. I remember getting out of the bus in the Atacama and digging into the loose rocky dirt. (There was no bus stop. Just an obliging driver.) I remember travelling through a large town near Antofagasta in the early evening, which eerily had almost no lights. “No electricity” was the answer when I asked. I also remember the energy and rhythms of the people. They get into your blood. Fantastic place. Many of our best never left.
Mike Lynch a UK union official demonstrates how to deal with a Sky News hack.
https://twitter.com/saulstaniforth/status/1539144444997423108?s=21&t=HhgrVoo3qtaniwV81I7CRA
Cronus @ #287 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 6:16 am
People thought the same thing about Scott Morrison.
Until the straw that broke the electorate’s back.
Victoria @ #332 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 9:36 am
He is under pressure from Shoebridge who is no mug!
Greg Rudd
Under pressure?
Rakali @ #337 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 1:00 am
I like this one as well 🙂
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1539489447724691457
________________________________________________________
PS A rare Keir Starmer zinger from PMQs yesterday
Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
Keir Starmer:
“Pay rises for City bankers. Pay cuts for district nurses. I didn’t see that on leaflets in Wakefield.”
12:13 PM · Jun 22, 2022·Twitter for iPhone
“Union leader” not Union boss” – this Murdoch hack faces a stint at re-education camp.
This article was from yesterday but ask seriously the question: can we get subs early? It is an important question for Richard Marles, but one thing is clear in the article: Peter Dutton was talking nonsense about getting SSNs from the USA before the election:
“Dutton now says he had a ‘plan’ to acquire two US Virginia-class SSNs off an existing American production line by the end of this decade. A further eight boats would be built in Australia.
It’s not really a plan, since nobody involved in delivering it, least of all the US government, has signed up to it.”
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/can-australia-get-nuclear-powered-submarines-this-decade/
So the former governments’ own strategic policy agency now says Dutton was making stuff up.
Ven @ #NaN Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 9:16 am
Because Somalia is not at the nexus between Democracy and Neo Fascism.
Cronus @ #288 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 6:16 am
Survive is a bit of a stretch at this point. Didn’t 40% of his own party just try to vote him out (with a bunch of the 60% who voted otherwise being obliged to vote that way due to serving on his payroll or something)? Assuming the other parties aren’t oddly sympathetic for some reason, that’s got to be 65-70% of Parliament wanting him gone (perhaps more if you correct for the “obligatory support” thing).
More walking dead than Teflon at this point. Just takes awhile to filter through.
P1: “Just how stupid do they believe we are?”
In your case?
P1 at 9.39
Oh, and by the way – that 1.4 degrees warming was being reported back in 2020. Australia will probably be at 1.5 degrees even before Labor gets the chance to warm their bums on the treasury benches.
Just how stupid do they believe we are?
____________
Stupid enough to elect your beloved COALition for the past decade.
Your determination to bag Labor at every turn – while hardly ever criticising the COALition reveals you for the Liberal-supporting troll you are.
Socrates @ #NaN Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 10:21 am
Speers cornered Dutton on Sunday about this. Essentially, through the obfuscation and swerving to try and avoid answering the question, Dutton admitted that ‘his truth’ emanated from a conversation he had with some guy at the shipyard in the US. No American government involvement, not even a conversation with a low level functionary at the Pentagon.
Or, in other words, Peter Dutton crafted his article in The Australian out of a lie and The Australian let him.
Victoria at
Melbourne is the only Australian city to make the 10 most liveable cities – but it could easily have missed out.
____________
FFS. Let’s workshop the framing from Costello Meeja if you had a Liberal Premier…
‘Melbourne Again in World’s Top 10 Most Liveable Cities’