Roy Morgan has published the first poll of voting intention since the election, though in its typically unpredictable way it makes clear from an accompanying chart that it has continued conducting polling on a weekly basis. The primary votes from the poll are Labor 36%, which compares with 32.6% at the election and 34% in both Morgan’s poll last week and its pre-election poll; Coalition 37%, respectively compared with 35.7%, 37% and 34%; Greens 11%, respectively compared with 12.3%, 12.5% and 13%; One Nation 4%, respectively compared with 5.0%, 3.5% and 4%; and United Australia Party 0.5%, respectively compared with 4.1%, 1% and 1%. The two-party preferred result from the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with about 52-48 at the election, 54-46 in last week’s poll and 53-47 in the final pre-election Morgan poll.
The two-party state breakdowns have the Coalition with an unlikely 53.5-46.5 lead in New South Wales, after losing there by 51.4-48.6 at the election; Labor with a scarcely more plausible 60.5-39.5 lead in Victoria, which they won by about 54-46 (here the two-party election count is not quite finalised); 50-50 in Queensland, where the Coalition won 54-46; Labor ahead by 50.5-49.5 in Western Australia, where they won 55-45 at the election; Labor ahead by 60.5-39.5 in South Australia, where they won 54-46; and Labor ahead 63-37 in Tasmania, where they won 54.3-45.7. It should be noted that sample sizes for the small states especially low, and margins of error correspondingly high. The poll was conducted online and by phone last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1401.
This post is intended as the open thread for general political discussion – if you have something more in-depth to offer on the results of the recent election, you might like to chime in on my new post looking at the Australian National University’s new study of surveys conducted early in the campaign and immediately after the election, or the ongoing discussion of the Senate results.
Snappy Tom @ #NaN Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 10:25 am
Exactly.
And Player One, like the committed troll they are, comes to Poll Bludger every day to do it. Even though everyone wishes they wouldn’t. It’s just soooo tedious and obvious. Player One is fooling no one.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/06/22/morgan-53-47-to-labor-open-thread/comment-page-7/#comment-3942485
MFT, multi-factor productivity …
Snappy Tom @ #NaN Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 10:28 am
It’s like the chipping away at marble effect. Eventually, they assume, if they do it every day it will end up with a form that will change people’s minds and make them see the Dan Andrews government differently.
‘Tory MP David Warburton faces parliamentary standards inquiry .. Warburton had whip suspended in April after allegations of sexual harassment and cocaine use’
MP for Somerton & Frome (Somerset), Conservative majority 19,213
A Lib Dem held seat between 1997 and 2015
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/tory-mp-david-warburton-parliamentary-standards-inquiry
After reports of a fun Sydney PB lunch, the idea of an SEQ equivalent was floated last night. I blame(?) Mavis, who suggested I might “do the admin”. But I’m happy to oblige. Questions become, who, where and when? (Also, I don’t get out much. So it’s up to you for venue suggestions.)
#PB-lunch-SEQ
Attendees
* Mavis
* Late Riser
Geography/Venue Ideas
* …
rhwomba at 8:55 am
Unfortunately there is the Australian tradition. By sale , neglect or incompetence the commercialisation of major discoveries heads overseas. We get the ‘privilege’ of paying for the products flowing from the invention/discovery.
citizen at 10.19
“Union leader” not Union boss” – this Murdoch hack faces a stint at re-education camp.
RBA in ‘boomer fantasy’ over wages: McManus
Union leader says Philip Lowe is ‘out of touch’ over his pay spiral warning, as industry chief says ‘genie is out of the bottle’.
1 HOUR AGO By CARLY DOUGLAS
____________
I’d like to see Phil Lowe called out not just on ‘household impact’ grounds but economic grounds as well: can he prove that increasing wages to keep pace (not exceed) inflation will fuel inflation? Can he cite examples from Australian economic history in which this has actually happened?
The truth is the current inflation is driven by overseas factors and Lowe’s RBA dithered, possibly to try and make Morrison look better. The further truth is that profits are continuing to grow at an obscene rate: why isn’t Lowe criticising business for driving inflation as it seeks more profit?
> At the press conference in which Mexican President AMLO called for Julian Assange to be freed, he showed a clip of the “collateral murder” video published by @WikiLeaks, which exposed US war crimes and killing of journalists in Iraq.
https://twitter.com/Multipolarista/status/1539677080111222784
Mexico’s relations with the neighbouring USA are highly important, yet its president still has the courage to call out the USA’s political persecution of Julian Assange for exposing its war crimes.
Meanwhile a series of ALP and L/NP Australian Prime Ministers have either remained silent or spoken in support of his persecution (the supremely mediocre Julia Gillard). There are very few Australian politicians, or Australian journalists, who have spoken up for their fellow Australian. Notable exceptions being Andrew Wilkie and Mary Kostakidis, who have been tireless in their support. But these are the exceptions to the rule that Australia is led by a spineless, intellectually mediocre political & media ‘elite’, who are craven in their ‘going along with’ the many crimes of US imperialism, including the political persecution of Australia’s bravest and most important journalist of the last half-century.
”
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 10:22 am
Ven @ #NaN Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 9:16 am
”
Boerwarsays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 8:38 am
The population of Somalia is well above the ability of its sand and rocks to deliver adequate food in normal times.
Add drought, food commodity prices, the opportunity costs of internal warfare, the opportunity costs of a failed state, Putin’s War and climate change and…
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/jun/22/somalia-the-worst-humanitarian-crisis-weve-ever-seen
”
But Somalia is not Ukraine. So nobody cares about Somalia.
Because Somalia is not at the nexus between Democracy and Neo Fascism.
”
C@tmomma
You used some fancy words but a lot of PBers know why nobody cares about Somalia.
Have just spent 30 minutes watching Mick Lynch pull apart ridiculous media talking points about the UK rail strike. Quite cathartic.
C@t
Yeah, that and they are ‘Black Africans’. The place is a ‘shit hole’ eh C@t, so they’re used to that sorta thing eh ?
rhwombat says:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 8:55 am
“In the Gruniad live blog: AAP is reporting that in a world first, Australian scientists have developed a device with “exquisite precision” that they say is a huge step towards a commercial quantum computer.”
Agreed, way out of my league so I follow it at the interest level rather than the technical level. In any case, fantastic news, I really hope Australia could lead the world in this type of technology and help move us into a genuinely technically developed and producing country rather than just digging holes in the ground. This technology I understand could literally change the world.
”
Snappy Tomsays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 10:35 am
citizen at 10.19
“Union leader” not Union boss” – this Murdoch hack faces a stint at re-education camp.
RBA in ‘boomer fantasy’ over wages: McManus
Union leader says Philip Lowe is ‘out of touch’ over his pay spiral warning, as industry chief says ‘genie is out of the bottle’.
1 HOUR AGO By CARLY DOUGLAS
____________
I’d like to see Phil Lowe called out not just on ‘household impact’ grounds but economic grounds as well: can he prove that increasing wages to keep pace (not exceed) inflation will fuel inflation? Can he cite examples from Australian economic history in which this has actually happened?
The truth is the current inflation is driven by overseas factors and Lowe’s RBA dithered, possibly to try and make Morrison look better. The further truth is that profits are continuing to grow at an obscene rate: why isn’t Lowe criticising business for driving inflation as it seeks more profit?
”
After RBA/Philip Lowe made a mess of increasing the interest rates in timely manner after stating as late as late 2021 that interest rates will not be raised till 2024, I have lost a lot of confidence in RBA to make correct calls on inflation and interest rates and other monetary settings.
Snappy Tom
Yep. In a nutshell!
Ven
“ I think people of England (I am not including Scotland and Northern Ireland) are forgiving of BOJO because they want to live a carefree like BOJO and getaway with that i.e. do whatever you want to do and don’t face any consequences for their actions. The problem for them is that the world is colonised by them anymore from where they got their wealth and resources. They know that there will be consequences for their actions. But BOJO is repeatedly defying political gravity and they like what they see. He is fulfilling their wetdreams. Hence, they will forgive him come what may. And to an extent Morrison was forgiven quite a lot in Australia.”
Hard to disagree. I think the consequences and subsequent landing will be much harder for them than it is for us with Morrison (I wonder if Albo would be given the same forgiving latitude). They produce so little and seem to have little to fall back on. Australia has been short-sighted but I think the condition may be worse for the UK (I guess the Welsh and Scots just have to tolerate it).
Snappy Tom at 10:35 am
Don’t you love those economics arseholes. Wages have been going nowhere, if not backwards, for some time. AND YET they reckon it’s the wage and salary earners who must take a cut in real pay to fix the inflation problem. Somehow ‘we’ are responsible and so must ‘fix’ it.
Snappy Tom says:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 9:03 am
Cronus at 8.41 re Brexit…
I can’t really see what the UK gained…
____________
“But, but, they took back control of their ‘borders, money and laws’! Gotta be good! Rule Britannia, Britannia rules the waves…
Welcome back an Empire, er, Commonwealth, on which the Sun never sets…
Land of hope and glory, Mother of the free…
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759792/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Taking_back_control_of_our_borders__money_and_laws_while_protecting_our_economy__security_and_Union__1_.pdf
Brexit: most coherent policy eva!”
Yep, very much the definition of a Pyrrhic victory.
Ray (UK)
Hilarious anecdote!
Given all of her Labor Phobic pontificating, and her evangelical fever with her repetitive call on this blog to ‘Just Vote 1, Independent”, P1 really owes us all a straight answer to the question as to whom she gave a preference to when filling out her HOR ballot paper at the recent federal election, lest she be branded a bludger troll on the same level of Dante’s inferno as L’arse and nath.
So, P1: were you one of the 56,039 electors of Gilmore who had the basic good sense of decency to vote for Phillips over Constance, or not?
Snappy Tom says:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 9:13 am
Ray (UK) at 9.04
“Tragically, a combination of ignorance/stupidity and racism/arseholery is not rare.
BTW, is today by-election day? How are things looking? Has Bojo sent (or at least tried to, if not for those nasty, undemocratic courts) enough people to Rwanda to turn the polls around?”
A humbling reminder that they copied this dreadful process from us, how very humiliating.
Melbourne’s “liveability” has improved recently partly due to the effect of the pandemic on the population growth rate.
I’m a supporter of high immigration. I’m not a supporter of generations of deficient urban planning, where there’s a chronic rolling gap between the need for suitable infrastructure and housing and those things actually being provided.
The benefits of the COVID induced pause in Melbourne’s population growth are being offset by the fact that people haven’t returned to public transport in pre-pandemic numbers. The roads are diabolical. Doesn’t help liveability.
It’s great to see us burnishing Aussie tech but I’m not sure these guys have built a quantum computer, just a really small but regular one.
What’s interesting about the reported work is that the atomic scale is about as small as you can go and still work with classical elements. These days we’re familiar with “nano” to describe really tiny stuff. Before that “micro” was common. But this work occurs at “pico” scale.
imacca says:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 9:40 am
Ray (UK) at 9.04
“ Particularly funny to anyone who has ever tried to read a Welsh signpost.”
I attended the Aust v Argentina Game at the 1991 Rugby World Cup. I asked a couple of Welsh locals on two different occasions the directions to Llanelli which I pronounced phonetically (what a goose). Imagine my surprise when they didn’t understand me and my bigger surprise when I realised how the Welsh actually pronounced it.
Cronus
Picture this for a future. Turn England into a giant ‘theme park’. Tourists can choose LARPing in 1001 classic British novels, plays and BBC programs .The locals can continue to pretend their days of Empire are not truly over and the tourists have some fun ,win win 😆
Pi @ #346 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 10:24 am
Perhaps try engaging with the issues instead of just snarking at other posters.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #368 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 10:54 am
Obsessing again, AE? It’s possibly not as effective as you seem to think it is.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 10:05 am
Cronus @ #287 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 6:16 am
“ MPs are looking at whether the foreign affairs watchdog or ethics officials in the Cabinet Office could investigate Boris Johnson’s proposal to give a senior job to his then girlfriend in 2018, after the prime minister refused to deny having done so. Johnson fuelled speculation that he attempted to install Carrie Johnson, now his wife, as his chief of staff when foreign secretary after he declined to comment on the allegations at prime minister’s questions.”
He really is Teflon. How he can survive so many integrity scandals is truly astounding. Either Keir Starmer is hopeless or the British public (and certainly the Tories) are a deeply forgiving lot. Add Johnson to a dreadful economic situation and the Brits are truly heading down the drain at pace.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/22/carrie-johnson-unsavoury-political-attack-dominic-raab
People thought the same thing about Scott Morrison.
“Until the straw that broke the electorate’s back.”
And no doubt they’ll reach that point at some time but his party at least are very very forgiving. I can only imagine they feel they need him for reelection in three years otherwise he is surely a millstone around the Tories necks, far worse even than Morrison was for the Coalition (though it may just be my impression and perhaps the Brits really do love him regardless).
C@tmomma @ #350 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 10:28 am
Oh look, today I got the whole set!
Ray (UK)
Do you have a general opinion of Keir Starmer (he seems ok to me though my knowledge is limited), is he well regarded, competent and likely to win the next election at this point?
Morrison was the most deceitful person to reach the high office of PM. It looks like Dutton is trying to emulate him. He is going OK in being deceitful, but as Magic Mark made clear, he is just not smart enough to get there.
”
Honest Bastardsays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 10:35 am
> At the press conference in which Mexican President AMLO called for Julian Assange to be freed, he showed a clip of the “collateral murder” video published by @WikiLeaks, which exposed US war crimes and killing of journalists in Iraq.
https://twitter.com/Multipolarista/status/1539677080111222784
Mexico’s relations with the neighbouring USA are highly important, yet its president still has the courage to call out the USA’s political persecution of Julian Assange for exposing its war crimes.
Meanwhile a series of ALP and L/NP Australian Prime Ministers have either remained silent or spoken in support of his persecution (the supremely mediocre Julia Gillard). There are very few Australian politicians, or Australian journalists, who have spoken up for their fellow Australian. Notable exceptions being Andrew Wilkie and Mary Kostakidis, who have been tireless in their support. But these are the exceptions to the rule that Australia is led by a spineless, intellectually mediocre political & media ‘elite’, who are craven in their ‘going along with’ the many crimes of US imperialism, including the political persecution of Australia’s bravest and most important journalist of the last half-century.
”
Honest Bastardsays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 10:35 am
> At the press conference in which Mexican President AMLO called for Julian Assange to be freed, he showed a clip of the “collateral murder” video published by @WikiLeaks, which exposed US war crimes and killing of journalists in Iraq.
https://twitter.com/Multipolarista/status/1539677080111222784
Mexico’s relations with the neighbouring USA are highly important, yet its president still has the courage to call out the USA’s political persecution of Julian Assange for exposing its war crimes.
Meanwhile a series of ALP and L/NP Australian Prime Ministers have either remained silent or spoken in support of his persecution (the supremely mediocre Julia Gillard). There are very few Australian politicians, or Australian journalists, who have spoken up for their fellow Australian. Notable exceptions being Andrew Wilkie and Mary Kostakidis, who have been tireless in their support. But these are the exceptions to the rule that Australia is led by a spineless, intellectually mediocre political & media ‘elite’, who are craven in their ‘going along with’ the many crimes of US imperialism, including the political persecution of Australia’s bravest and most important journalist of the last half-century.
”
Assange is not a journalist. I don’t think he ever claimed to be a journalist. If he did he did not follow the rules and ethics of journalism (not that many ‘Journos’ currently do). He wanted to play god. He put lives of many people in danger with his actions as was claimed by US and apparently accepted by UK judge while granting extradition to US.
The race is on, which do we get first; autonomous cars, quantum computers or fusion reactors.
Further to the post from Socrates at 10.21, linking the ASPI article by Marcus Hellyer & Andrew Nicholls as to whether Australia could in fact received two US built SSNs (Virginia Class) by the end of this decade. The following summation repeats the basic point I’ve made about AUKUS for months:
“ In short, for Australia to get any US SSNs this decade, the USN would have to give up some of the boats baked into its own plans at a time when it needs every single one it can get to stop any further decline in boat or missile numbers.”
The situation with the UK option (Astute Class) is even more dire: even if Britain wanted to ‘give up’ some of its boats there isn’t even a remote possibility of BAE doing so given its Dreadnaught SSBN class commitments over the next 10 years.
Therefore, under AUKUS there is effectively zero chance of SSBNs being ‘fast tracked’ into RAN service by the first units being built in either America or Britain whilst we spend 15 years spooling up our own – effectively non existent – nuclear boat building industry from zero to the first local built boat going into service.
NOW, Marles has effectively tolled the bell – we are really talking about the mid 2040s before locally built SSNs will enter RAN service under the AUKUS arrangements.
This all leads us back to fair France and some very serious questions:
Why was the Attack Class completely cancelled before an alternative plan was bedded down?
Why wasn’t France brought into the loop so that its government – and Naval Group – be given the opportunity to ‘sharpen the pencil’ regarding the looming costs (and potentially the time frame) blowouts associated with the Attack Class (and why was the department of defence’ s estimates as to both always so opaque and typically misleading)?
Why was France ruled out BEFORE the SSN evaluation study even commenced as being a potential future SSN partner country?
I note, in summary, the following:
Naval Group DOES – on paper at least – have spare capacity to lay down and build two SSN subs in Cherbourg this decade (probably being deceived to the RAN by 2033-36), and another two next decade. Plus France always signalled that it was prepared to negotiate an SSN pivot with the Australian Government at any stage that the Australian government deemed that necessary.
Cat
“Speers cornered Dutton on Sunday about this. Essentially, through the obfuscation and swerving to try and avoid answering the question, Dutton admitted that ‘his truth’ emanated from a conversation he had with some guy at the shipyard in the US. No American government involvement, not even a conversation with a low level functionary at the Pentagon.
Or, in other words, Peter Dutton crafted his article in The Australian out of a lie and The Australian let him.”
Yes. There is a strict US law regarding export of military technology. Nuclear subs are in the most restricted category.
Unless Dutton had an approval from the US Navy, recommendation from POTUS and ultimately a vote of approval from a US Congressional committee (all 3 needed!), he had nothing.
Frednk @ #381 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 11:19 am
Given the rate at which we are addressing climate change, I’d opt for “none of the above” 🙁
“ Obsessing again, AE? It’s possibly not as effective as you seem to think it is.”
The question itself has been largely rhetorical for months. It’s purpose is to simply remind you that we have worked your humbug out. No obsession on my behalf, just a counter punch to your endless, gormless & frankly dumb as dog shit – obsessive – Labor phobic posts.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 10:54 am
Given all of her Labor Phobic pontificating, and her evangelical fever with her repetitive call on this blog to ‘Just Vote 1, Independent”, P1 really owes us all a straight answer to the question as to whom she gave a preference to when filling out her HOR ballot paper at the recent federal election, lest she be branded a bludger troll on the same level of Dante’s inferno as L’arse and nath.
____________
If being called a troll is the price of not being a complete Labor stooge. Well sign me up. I have not outsourced my opinions to a political party.
Thanks C@tmomma for the splendid gathering of the Sydney coven(alternate definition).
A real pleasure to participate.
“ If being called a troll is the price of not being a complete Labor stooge. Well sign me up. I have not outsourced my opinions to a political party.”
You are a founding member of the bludger troll stooge club. No wonder you, L’arse and other Labor phobics run to P1’s aid whenever her humbug is critiqued.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 11:29 am
“ If being called a troll is the price of not being a complete Labor stooge. Well sign me up. I have not outsourced my opinions to a political party.”
You are a founding member of the bludger troll stooge club. No wonder you, L’arse and other Labor phobics run to P1’s aid whenever her humbug is critiqued.
__________________
I fail to see how I’m a troll. I express my opinions, which are invariably more favorable to Labor than the Coalition. But I can understand that to a party fanatic that kind of independent thinking may seem questionable.
This article ties a few threads together …
https://johnmenadue.com/keith-mitchelson-how-long-how-long-blues/
Worth repeating … “if we consider the principal role that lower emissions must be achieved for a 43% total emissions reduction, a plan to continue burning coal and gas is not credible.”
Not. Credible.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #385 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 11:24 am
Doubling down is rarely a useful strategy outside Blackjack, AE. And I reckon you probably lose at that as well.
The bullying of Player One on this blog is out of order.
Cronus @ #378 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 2:14 am
I think he’s a bit of a dud quite frankly (I put him last on my ranked ballot in the leadership vote)
Not especially, sort of, possibly*
*Winning in terms of largest party .. preferably needing only the Lib Dems and not the SNP
I subscribe to “The Mandarin” emails, but not their detailed analyses. The emails give a sense of mood though. Today’s email contains these words.
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 11:38 am
The bullying of Player One on this blog is out of order.
_________
I agree Rex. And in news that will please you I have recently become aware of an excellent decision of the Andrews government. I’d still like an inquiry into Andrews and Crown though. 🙂
https://thehomestretch.org.au/news/the-most-significant-reform-to-child-welfare-in-a-generation-victorian-government-leads-nation-in-announcing-universal-care-for-young-people-to-the-age-of-21/
nath @ #386 Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 11:25 am
The Labor partisans here on PB can’t seem to understand that you might support Labor but be critical of some of their stupider policy positions. It is the main reason I refer to them here as “partisans” – they apparently cannot even entertain or intelligently discuss any ideas that contradict the party position. To even consider that there might be a better alternative is to be disloyal.
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Thursday, June 23, 2022 at 11:21 am
Further to the post from Socrates at 10.21, linking the ASPI article by Marcus Hellyer & Andrew Nicholls as to whether Australia could in fact received two US built SSNs (Virginia Class) by the end of this decade. The following summation repeats the basic point I’ve made about AUKUS for months:
……………….
……..
Why was the Attack Class completely cancelled before an alternative plan was bedded down?
”
AE
Because Dutton wanted to implement Greens light mobile force policy. 🙂
https://greens.org.au/platform/world
P1: “Just how stupid do they believe we are?”
Me: “In your case?”
P1: “Perhaps try engaging with the issues instead of just snarking at other posters.”
You’re the one who asked the question dummy. You want to speak for yourself, go fo it. You want to make it a collective question, I’m gonna answer it for ya.
Late Riser @ #NaN Thursday, June 23rd, 2022 – 10:31 am
Good on you, Late Riser and Mavis! I remember Dandy Murray-Honeydew wanted to come along, as well as a r. But I’ll let them pipe up for themselves. Surely a venue on the beautiful Brisbane River or thereabouts would be nice? 🙂