Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.
Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.
• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.
Election analysis tools:
• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.
• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.
• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.
• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.
Steve777 at 10.48 re size of HoR and ‘cube root rule’…
I’m fine with 300 seats – or even 151 – as long as we transition from guaranteeing ‘one vote, one value (+/-10%)’ within jurisdictions (which Hawke’s Act did) to guaranteeing it across jurisdictions.
Thus, if 300 seats, Tas gets 6 or 7 and NSW about 93 etc. If 151 seats, Tas gets 3 (yikes! Constitution guarantees 5 minimum!) and NSW about 48.
IIRC, some of the most-populace electorates have close to 135,000 voters; Tas’ 5 seats average slightly above 80,000. Taswegian voters are given up to 70% more value than voters in some other seats. Fucking disgrace.
”
Pisays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 10:22 am
Ven: ” It is like a dictator appointing his crony.”
You realize what you’re calling a ‘dictator’ should more appropriately be referred to as “democratically elected leader”, yes?
”
PM may be “democratically elected leader ” in one sense but there is no such person as “democratically elected leader ” in constitution. That person is leader of the country because he has the confidence of the House of Reps. Henc, that person should also consult the parliament to appoint Monarch’s representative. And GG has important functions to perform. To swear in a new government on behalf of Monarch, dismiss a government on behalf of Monarch, approve legislation passed by the parliament into law on behalf of Monarch. GG represents the Head of State in Australia. Remember PM only is Head of government.
My point was only dictators appoint unilaterally. There is nothing democratic about appointment of GG.
The Monarch of Australia never rejected the recommendation of PM regarding GG appointment.
Victoria @ #611 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 8:42 am
Denver Riggleman is a former Republican Congressman who is an expert in decrypting encrypted text messages and was employed by the Jan6 Committee to go through the confiscated phones.
autocrat @ #670 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 11:01 am
I still remember the photo ops he organised of him coming out of the surf of a morning. 😀
”Why would Australia have 300 HOR members, when the USA (14 times bigger) has 435?”
I wasn’t advocating for it, just pointing out the existence of the cube root “rule” as a matter of interest.
I wouldn’t mind an increase to about 200.
P.S.
1. The “rule” suggests a US House of about 700 members. They have 435.
2. They don’t have a “Nexus” but I think that they would be better with 3 Senators per State instead of two (so 150 in total).
3. The “rule” gives the UK about 400 members (the House of Commons has 650).
Rossmcg at 10.52
Worst campaign?
If results a guide WA Liberals 2021.
____________
How could I forget?!!! A great night watching from Over East!
Thanks to everyone for the ‘worst campaign eva’ suggestions: a storied catalogue!
”
Steve777says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 10:34 am
Re Ven @10:11. ”What about Hollingworth Who was made GG during Howard PMship.
What I don’t like about GG appointment in Australia is that the serving PM can appoint him/her at his/her will and liking without any scrutiny and nobody can do anything about it. It is like a dictator appointing his crony.”
There’s an obvious argument to be made against the “politicians’ republic” that wasn’t pressed all those years ago. Our Head of State is selected by one person – the Prime Minister
”
Steve777
GG is not Head of State. He is the representative of Monarch of Australia, who is the Head of State of Australia. Did you forget Australia is a Monarchy?
Ven: ‘PM may be “democratically elected leader ”’
Not ‘may be’, ‘is’. Because those reps are democratically elected as well. And when those electors want to get rid of that PM, they vote accordingly in a thing called an ‘election’. We just had one, and we got a new PM because of it.
You said ‘dictator’ when the term does not apply. The PM is not a dictator, no matter how you want to spin it to your point of view.
C@t at 11.04
A politician named ‘Riggleman’? Whoda thunkit?
If, and it’s a very big if, Taylormade’s gas bill grew by a factor of 4.5 he would has used a lot more gas, probably by forgetting to turn appliances off.
Isn’t this the bloke who has been stalling on the production of a list of Morrison achievements.
I will help him with one to put at the top of the list. Morrison has made an enormous improvement to Australia by making himself a one man band so we could easily recognise a total incompetent fraud and elect an ALP Government.
Torchbearer @ #850 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 10:53 am
The USA doesn’t have a Parliamentary setup. Also their politics is in dire straits. Wouldn’t use them as an example of anything, except maybe what not to do.
Supreme Court stacked with partisan tools, legislation in perpetual deadlock because it takes a supermajority to advance anything, presidents cavorting around like the law doesn’t apply to them, gerrymanders everywhere, a minority of the population getting to win elections thanks to electoral-college distortion, etc.. We don’t need to copy any of that.
”
Pisays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 11:07 am
Ven: ‘PM may be “democratically elected leader ”’
Not ‘may be’, ‘is’. Because those reps are democratically elected as well. And when those electors want to get rid of that PM, they vote accordingly in a thing called an ‘election’. We just had one, and we got a new PM because of it.
You said ‘dictator’ when the term does not apply. The PM is not a dictator, no matter how you want to spin it to your point of view.
”
Don’t try to spin to your advantage. Read my comment again. I never said PM is a dictator. I posted “It is like a dictator appointing his crony.”.
Do you know that GG can appoint anyone he/she likes as PM. That person has to prove that he/she has House confidence. So the person initially need not have to be democratically elected.
For what it’s worth, I just got our house electricity bill. It was exactly the same as last year. Not sure what the gas one will be, but I don’t expect too many surprises. From what I’ve read, it’s the people in NSW and QLD that have been really affected by energy prices, because they’re still so dependent upon fossil fuel generated energy. Those people should send their bills to Angus Taylor.
As an excuse, the lack of sleep is getting to me.
Ven: ‘I never said PM is a dictator. I posted “It is like a dictator appointing his crony.”’
Dude. That’s exactly what that says. Your analogy fails for the exact reason that the PM is not a dictator. It is not ‘like a dictator’ because the position of PM is not a dictator.
Granny Anny,
TaylorMade likes to style himself as a Liberal flamethrower when he comes onto PB. More like a Bic tea light candle lighter. Producing a small amount of light and warmth. 🙂
Can you believe the vile monster, Vladimir Putrid, put out a press release today saying that the shopping mall hit yesterday by one of his missiles, was empty at the time!?!
Steve777 @ #855 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 11:06 am
It doesn’t really behave like a rule, does it?
Worst Campaign???
Weorta suggest some titles for the forthcoming tide of Morrison biographies.
My initial suggestion: ‘The Man Who Stopped His Own Boat.’
Counting state and federal politicians we have around 7-800 too many. As for their staffers, there are probably several thousand too many.
Suggestions for getting this down to a useful national total of 200 would be more than welcome.
I was driving up the Hume Highway the other week and was overtaken by a three unformed motorcycle police, in the flash harry white gear, in formation, followed by a long white car with a “CROWN” for a number plate.
Bristled at the whole idea of it, not to mention the expense, I did. The guy can’t drive? And what’s he need the three cops for? To not draw attention to himself I suppose.
BREAKING: EU votes to ban production of combustion engines for new cars by 2035
A Z at 11.32 re ‘Where the bloody hell are you?’ as worst campaign…
Morrison now has two entries in the stakes (along with 2022). Prolific stables, Sf Morrison…
BTW, I think part of the failure of ‘Where the bloody hell are you?’ is its combination of entitlement (‘we’re such a great destination – you SHOULD be here’) with desperation (‘why aren’t you here? Please come here…’)
Apropos of some of my earlier posts re challenges facing churches in an increasingly secularised environment, lots of churches communicate this combination of entitlement (you SHOULD be here) and desperation (please come/stay here.)
A friend of mine once visited a small church in her locale. She was greeted with practically a standing ovation. She never went back.
Values-based organisations (like churches and political parties) need to be hospitable to new members (there’s a million ways to fail at this) but new members need to arrive because the organisation is seen as fulfilling a mission that makes lives better. I know, some churches consider scaring people into heaven (all of which I consider bullshit – a technical, theological term) a fulfillment of their mission, but, due to my parenthetical ‘bullshit’ remark, they’re wrong.
When values-based organisations engage in recruiting new members as a means of preserving the organisation, the desperation can be detected at vast distances.
I just watched the ‘Where the bloody hell are you?’ ad again…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn0lwGk4u9o
95% of the ad is a great communication of welcome and hospitality. It’s ruined by that question at the end.
I’d have gone for something like ‘So, come and sample some great Australian hospitality!’ That message, by the way, would’ve been a continuation of the Paul Hogan ad theme from the 80s.
Instead of communicating a confident invitation, the ad’s ending communicated cringe-worthy desperation.
Washington Post has a good summary of today’s the J6C hearing.
https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1541904753281605634
Less than 4 minutes of video snippets.
Obviously there is more in the full 2 hours of testimony, including the hints of conspiracy at the Willard Hotel, Proud Boys and that other group and Roger Stone, Michael Flynn pleading the 5th when asked does he support peaceful transfer of power, and Mark Meadows basically not giving a shit and playing with his phone like a toddler.
But in terms of Trump this is gist of it.
* Trump wanted rioters to march to the Capitol despite having weapons.
* Trump threw dishes because he was angry with the Attorney General.
* Trump reportedly lunged for the steering wheel (of ‘the beast’) and attacked his own Secret Service agent.
* White House counsel feared getting charged with ‘every crime imaginable’, eg obstructing justice, defrauding the electoral count.
* Trump was warned about Cabinet discussing invoking the 25th amendment to replace him with Pence.
US Supreme Court releases list of approved sexual positions:
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2022/06/27/us-supreme-court-releases-list-of-approved-sexual-positions/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=liberal_party_calls_crisis_meeting_after_census_reveals_1_in_2_australians_is_female&utm_term=2022-06-29
Mavis at 12.08
I’m lovin’ the Shovel’s idea of a ‘Liberal crisis meeting’ because they’ve discovered ‘50% of the population is female’!
Late Riser @ #878 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 12:02 pm
That’s the main thing, isn’t it? That, and the fact that he really wanted to storm the Capitol with them. And that the plan had been in the works well in advance. Plus the way he told his staff to get rid of the metal detectors so that the rioters could stop having their weapons confiscated.
Throwing plates and all the rest is just window dressing. Surely intentionally sending an armed mob to the Capitol in the middle of certification proceedings, after taking active steps to help them stay armed, is plenty?
Hot-bunking? Eww.
Air New Zealand to install world-first economy bunk beds on long-haul flights
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/29/air-new-zealand-to-install-world-first-economy-bunk-beds-on-long-haul-flights
Snappy Tom:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 12:13 pm
[‘Mavis at 12.08
I’m lovin’ the Shovel’s idea of a ‘Liberal crisis meeting’ because they’ve discovered ‘50% of the population is female’!’]
Yep. Ridicule is a strong political weapon.
Jaeger @ #700 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 12:18 pm
Announced in 2020, finally implemented in 2022:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/bunk-beds-in-coach-it-may-be-here-sooner-than-you-think.html
That’s the main thing, isn’t it? That, and the fact that he really wanted to storm the Capitol with them.
What I’m thinking is that he wanted to keep urging them on so that they would be ‘motivated’ by him to finish the job he wanted them to do. I remember that some of them, once they got into the Capitol, walked around like lost sheep.
The Age
Carroll also said Ambulance Victoria was expected to do some media later on Wednesday to explain why the code red, the designation for a severe ambulance shortage, wasn’t made public last night as other recent ones had with a media report on Wednesday morning revealing the issue.
_____________________
Would have been handy to know if you needed an ambulance during that time. But who cares about the public. It is all about the politics.
C@tmomma @ #883 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 12:28 pm
Finish the job? I mean, what did he think was actually going to happen. They would hang Mike Pence? They’d get Nancy? Then what?
Chris Bowen live at the NPC:
https://youtu.be/GrHuhP_I4RU
”Air New Zealand to install world-first economy bunk beds on long-haul flights”
Like the old “Sleeper” carriages on long-haul trains? Do they still have them?
Bowen now addressing the NPC & not holding back.
Steve777 says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 12:37 pm
”Air New Zealand to install world-first economy bunk beds on long-haul flights”
_______________
Sounds Awful.
They should just have an anesthetist knock people out for long haul flights. Stack the people in like sardines. You wake up in London in a chair, shoes on, bags ready. 🙂
Taylormaid: “Would have been handy to know if you needed an ambulance during that time.”
Taylormaid conveniently forgets that the ALP won government in part because of the catastrophe of ambulance services under the former LNP was so bad, that its improvement was one of the key actions of the ALP government when they won. And the services today are still better than what they were left with by the previous LNP government.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-01/ambulance-pay-dispute-to-be-sent-to-fair-work-australia-andrews/5930980
LNP government policy on emergency services is to simply ignore them and stop talking about them at all when they are in government. They don’t fix anything, they just stop talking about it and hope they can wage kulture wars to distract everyone from the fact that they never deliver the services in the first place.
The Victorian LNP has literally zero credibility on this subject.
Has Barilaro elevated Perrottet’s premiership to embattled status ?
How long before Matt Kean assumes the roll?
Barilaro is a very gifted politician
nath @ #891 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 12:40 pm
I’d take that over being stuck in an economy seat for 14 hours.
Also fine. General anaesthetic is magical.
a r says:
Wednesday, June 29, 202
”Air New Zealand to install world-first economy bunk beds on long-haul flights”
_______________
Sounds Awful.
I’d take that over being stuck in an economy seat for 14 hours.
____________
It’d be fine for most. But at 6″3 and almost 90kgs I know this isnt for me.
Bowen making it clear a target can be exceeded…
Brown’s essentially exculpatory statement to the LC committee inquiring into Barilaro’s appointment to New York:
“Thank you for having me here today as a witness. I welcome the opportunity to outline the facts involved in the appointment of Mr John Barilaro [as Senior Trade and Investment Commissioner to the Americas] and address the questions the committee may have.
I first became a NSW public servant in 2013. I am committed to the public sector core values of integrity, trust, service and accountability. That includes the Westminster principle of an apolitical and impartial public service.
The appointment of Mr John Barilaro is a public service appointment. Before you raise the many questions you have on process, I would like to say the appointment process for the … senior trade and investment commissioners has evolved imperfectly.
Early advice contemplated by NSW Treasury when the program was first launched in 2019 recommended that … STICs, as they’ve become known, be appointed as public servants … rather than statutory offices appointed by a minister.
However, the approval process NSW Treasury developed and Investment NSW later inherited did not reflect how those appointments should be made under those laws and regulations. This has since been rectified and was corrected well before Mr Barilaro applied for the role.
Since August 2021, no formal approval of any minister or the premier has been sought prior to the appointment of STICs including STIC Americas [the role Barilaro was given].
Informal opinions of the responsible minister are often sought … however, final determination rests with me as the employer.
In preparing for today I’ve taken the time to reflect on the appointment of Mr Barilaro and I am confident that as the employer of the role of STIC Americas I have fulfilled my duties under the GSE Act [The NSW Government Sector Employment Act] with respect to this appointment.” – SMH
[The inquiry is now being held in camera]
On AUKUS and Dutton’s claims:
“Patricia Karvelas@PatsKarvelas ·4h
Defence minister @RichardMarlesMP told me on @RNBreakfast says nuclear subs won’t be ready until 2040s and the idea it would be earlier is “Optimistic in the extreme” in his strongest comments yet on capability gap #auspol”
So it is clear Dutton was making up stuff again and there was no deal to achieve anything under AUKUS. Just an announcement and a gaping hole where our navy is suppose to be.
Re long-haul flights…
20 years ago, Boeing floated the ‘Sonic Cruiser’ concept with major airlines. The idea was a very-long-ranged, near-supersonic airliner with fuel economy superior to the then-in-production 767.
What did they mean? Most airliners cruise at about 80-90% of the speed of sound (Mach .8-.9). Once you get to about Mach .92, you enter a trans-sonic instability speed range that extends slightly beyond Mach 1.
Note also that a key problem with the Concorde Mach 2 airliner was the sonic boom it generated, meaning it was banned from supersonic flight on most overland routes.
Boeing proposed a Sonic Cruiser designed using Computational Fluid Dynamics to maximise the efficiency of airflow over the entire surface of the plane, as well as computer-assisted flying controls to maintain stability while flying in unstable speeds close to Mach 1.
The Sonic Cruiser would combine the highest feasible subsonic cruise speed with very long range to trim something like 15% off journey times. It would also interrupt the traditional ‘wheel and spoke’ model, whereby one might fly from Sydney to Los Angeles then catch a connection to Dallas. Sonic Cruiser would fly direct to Dallas (just an example.)
The airlines said ‘No’. They wanted any new airliner to prioritise fuel economy above all – so Boeing switched to developing the 787.
There was a rumour that Sonic Cruiser was just a con-job, to persuade Airbus to go with the 4 engined, long range A380 (fairly recently discontinued) – in an era when 2 engined planes were demonstrating their far superior operating costs.
Perhaps the main hope for fast, long distance travel are options like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reaction_Engines#LAPCAT_A2.
Hypersonic flight doesn’t produce a sonic boom on earth if your altitude is high enough (sub-orbital.)
Retail sales rises 0.9pc to record levels in May
Cost of living pressures is doing little to hurt consumer spending with retail turnover up 10 per cent from a year ago, with just one sector seeing sales decline.
Inflation not biting yet by the look of it.
Elon Musk’s Starship (reconfigured for long haul aviation) will get you from Australia to London in under an hour.
At the Barilaro-gate inquiry, Investment NSW head Amy Brown resorts to victim blaming:
‘… Labor’s shadow treasurer, Daniel Mookhey, [asked] why she did not just re-offer the position to West rather than embark on the second recruitment process …’
“… the fact she was very unhappy with the arrangements and government, the whole situation felt quite irreconcilable.”
She said that she began to have concerns about West’s suitability for the role.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jun/29/candidate-for-barilaros-ny-role-had-offer-retracted-after-government-decision-inquiry-told?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other