Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.
Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.
• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.
Election analysis tools:
• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.
• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.
• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.
• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.
Oof, Boerwar won’t be happy lsitening to this Bowen speech
“I respect the mandate the Greens received from the voters.”
“If the Greens and independents have constructive suggestions to amend our Bills we’ll negotiate on them”.
What? The politicians are more sensible than BW thinks they are. What a shock!
It is the greens that are making the demands Voicy. When they want to work towards performing the functions of government, instead of grandstanding flag-burning kulturwar crap, they’ll be welcome.
Well, I just watched Bowens PC address and was very impressed with the speech and answers. Well done.
There’s a ‘safeguard’ for the Australian people with the Teal/Greens in a position to oversee and add to Labors agenda which, in my view, will see the 43% target exceeded.
Happy days.
Voice Endeavour @ #901 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 1:24 pm
Indeed. 😆
Torchbearersays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 10:53 am
Why would you use the US when comparing anything to do with democracy?
I’d actually like the Teal/Greens to push for a quicker transition of EV’s into the second hand car market.
‘Voice Endeavour says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 1:24 pm
Oof, Boerwar won’t be happy lsitening to this Bowen speech
“I respect the mandate the Greens received from the voters.”
“If the Greens and independents have constructive suggestions to amend our Bills we’ll negotiate on them”.
What? The politicians are more sensible than BW thinks they are. What a shock!’
—————————————-
Unfortunately for your devious Greens-style approach to this issue, I DID listen to the speech.
The bit you left out is that he stated that Labor has a mandate for 43% and that Labor was voted into government. Bowen went on to state that if the Greens come up with complementary ideas, Labor will pick them up. Labor will not deviate from its 43% mandate.
I rather enjoyed the way he dealt with Steggall and Pocock posturing about the 43% being a floor and not a ceiling. Labor has ALREADY indicated to the UN its aspiration that the outcome will be better than 43%.
Here we see the evolving patterns:
1. The Greens (as per VE) misrepresenting Labor while exhibiting their traditional hubris: same old Greens!
2. Labor getting on with the job.
3. The Xbenchers posturing meaninglessly but noisily about something that has already happened.
Incidentally, I thought Bowen’s NPC performance was refreshing and masterful. He answered the questions simply and directly. The journos were giving clear signals that they appreciated the direct answers to their questions.
I was also impressed that he is traveling to Torres Strait Islands to talk directly with the Australians who are no the front line of feeling the climate change pinch about adaptation.
Those who spent nine years perpetuating the lie that Labor was same old same old with the Coalition should admit that either they were (a) wrong or (b) lying.
Rex: “position to oversee”
oversee lol. They’re not the government flash. Sight-see more like.
I thought it was interesting that Bowen did not rule out vehicle emission standards. My impression from the campaign was that Albo had been negative in this but it may have been only “we have no plans” type soft negativity.
I think this may be a space to watch.
ajm @ #909 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 2:11 pm
Definitely left an opening for the Teal/Greens to push for stronger VE standards.
Holdenhillbilly @ #875 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 11:50 am
The EU continues to be a force for good in the world. Doing the necessary things even though they’re hard. Brexit was a terribly misguided act by the UK.
Snappy Tomsays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 11:03 am
If it worries you that much, you could move there.
You do realise that we’d probably still be 6 countries if that condition was not placed in the Constitution.
It is high time the Greens actually DID something. Same with the Xbenchers. The campaign is over.
After 32 years the Greens need to deliver on saving the world, stopping extinction by 2030, delivering 14 Demands worth $173 billion, saving the reef and halving the ADF.
The reporters from the AFR and from SMH/Age both pursued Bowen on increased gas exports. The questions would have been real Dorothy Dixers for Angus Taylor, but Bowen stepped neatly around them. Importantly, he said that existing gas export contracts would be honoured, but avoided making any pronouncement about additional exports or new gas projects.
Very nicely done.
I suspect the writing is on the wall for the gas giants who have been profiteering at the NSW consumers’ expense since the Ukraine war started.
More building companies collapse:
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/two-nsw-building-companies-collapse-owing-hundreds-of-thousands/news-story/e57fc2be8997b7dccfcfbaa72dc34cec
The population in Sri Lanka in 1950 was around 8 million.
It is now 21 million.
But the size of its land mass is still 65,610 km².
No wonder they are desperate trouble. The latest is that for the next fortnight there will fuel for essential transport only. Workers have been told to work from home.
There are ways and means to manage harmful agricultural chemicals.
“Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour” is clearly not the way to go about it.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/fertiliser-ban-decimates-sri-lankan-crops-government-popularity-ebbs-2022-03-03/
BTW, have the Greens reversed their policy to ban GMOs and glyphosphate?
Bowen’s NPC address seemed pretty flawless to me other than his reference to Hurley’s glowing reference of his builder, calling it “an honest mistake.” Others metaphorically have lost their heads for making an honest mistake. Did Hurley seek the advice of his official secretary? Was a quid pro quo involved? In any event, a former CDF should’ve known a lot better, let alone a GG. Perhaps he forgot that Peacock nearly lost his ministry after his then-wife (Susan) endorsed Sheridan Printed Sheets.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-08/lady-susan-renouf-reflects-on-controversial-advertisement/6077806
a rsays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 2:17 pm
Hardly necessary.
All it’s really saying is that there won’t even be room for niche markets like supercars.
Barney at 2.19 re Constitution guarantee of at least 5 seats for original states…
Don’t ever let me see you complain about American malapportionment, then.
Of course I know federation required the 5 seat guarantee. Well, it’s 2022 now. High time to honour that guarantee AND enshrine equality.
No Australian should have to move state to gain in relative voting power! One vote, one value: fundamental to representative democracy, and we don’t have it.
Have found an Indian (former diplomat) commentator recently, who I find quite insightful and also useful in looking at global affairs from an Indian perspective.
> Roughly half of the 3 decades of my diplomatic career was devoted to assignments on the territories of the former Soviet Union and to Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Other overseas postings included South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, and Turkey. I write mainly on Indian foreign policy and the affairs of the Middle East, Eurasia, Central Asia, South Asia and the Asia-Pacific.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/about-me/
He publishes on his own website, and his take on the recent G7 summit was an interesting one :
https://www.indianpunchline.com/g7-cracks-in-western-unity-on-russia/
Barney in Cherating @ #919 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 2:30 pm
That’s fine. Good deeds usually aren’t.
They’ve done the right thing and put the world’s automobile manufacturers on notice. If they want access to EU markets, they’re going to have to produce EV’s. Or at least something without an ICE. If they don’t feel like maintaining two entire production pipelines, IP stacks, supply chains, etc., they’ll have to produce only EV’s.
Sure, it didn’t need to be done. The world is still better now that it has been.
EV’s outperform them anyways. 🙂
https://youtu.be/loUsRGW9z-I?t=560
‘Mavis says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 2:29 pm
Bowen’s NPC address seemed pretty flawless to me other than his reference to Hurley’s glowing reference of his builder, calling it “an honest mistake.” Others metaphorically have lost their heads for making an honest mistake. Did Hurley seek the advice of his official secretary? Was a quid pro quo involved? In any event, a former CDF should’ve known a lot better, let alone a GG. Perhaps he forgot that Peacock nearly lost his ministry after his then-wife (Susan) endorsed Sheridan Printed Sheets.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-08/lady-susan-renouf-reflects-on-controversial-advertisement/6077806‘
—————————————————
Hurley made another honest mistake. This one resulted in someone getting major trough access. My view at the time was that Hurley should have resigned. I wonder whether he has so cowed his staff that they are afraid to advise not to break traditions surrounding the role of the GG.
But then, if Charles can make political interventions and if Andrew can make an honest mistake with that Caribbean pedophile mate of his, we should probably not be too hard on Hurley.
It seems to me that Labor is intent on not causes essentially meaningless shitfights. They will presumably tuck Hurley away where he can do little or no harm.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/governor-general-lobbied-scott-morrison-leadership-program/100975582
You do realise that we’d probably still be 6 countries if that condition was not placed in the Constitution
I have always agreed with George Houston Reid that Lynn and Barton were too stupid/pissed respectively to get a good deal for NSW.
After all, the smaller states were the ones begging NSW to join the Federal Council and the federation could have occurred without NSW giving into their vested interests
In any case the real reason the colonies federated
“Why would Australia have 300 HOR members, when the USA (14 times bigger) has 435?”
The USA also has 50 separate State legislatures, at least 10 with populations smaller than South Australias’, and over 85,000 different local governments, at least 12,000 of which have (County) police forces.
Any suggestion the USA is “under-governed” by using the number of HOR members as a metric is laughable and cheery-picking in the extreme.
“ItzaDreamsays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 11:45 am
I was driving up the Hume Highway the other week and was overtaken by a three unformed motorcycle police, in the flash harry white gear, in formation, followed by a long white car with a “CROWN” for a number plate.
Bristled at the whole idea of it, not to mention the expense, I did. The guy can’t drive? And what’s he need the three cops for? To not draw attention to himself I suppose.”
———————————————————-
You brought back 35 yo memories for me of the day I was accompanying a very ‘colourful’ Sydney (and world at times) identity in his new navy blue Mercedes on the way to the Melbourne Cup.
As we drove through North Melbourne a large police escort of motorbikes and flashing light police cars escorting the Victorian Governor drove past down the tram tracks in Flemington Rd.
Jack looked at me and said if its good enough for them its good enough for us. We tacked on and tailed the Governor’s car along tram tracks and were waived through all intersections with no stopping all the way up to the Flemington committee executive carpark and the red carpet!
(As an aside Jack once conned his way into the Royal Ascot royal enclosure and was photographed beside Queen Elizabeth. If only she/they knew his ‘form guide’ not to mention he regularly carried a pistol. He came home from that English foray with a brand new red Rolls Royce).
Tony Burke did some good work this week dealing with the landmines the Liberals left with the Job Network system. He’s got some work to do to make up for the Tarkine.
The cartoon I was trying to include as the reason for federation
Dr John says:
——————————————-
You brought back 35 yo memories for me of the day I was accompanying a very ‘colourful’ Sydney (and world at times) identity in his new navy blue Mercedes on the way to the Melbourne Cup.
_________
Kangaroo Gang?
Labors first month or so have been very good, apart the one absolute howler re staffing.
Boerwar
“No wonder they are desperate trouble. The latest is that for the next fortnight there will fuel for essential transport only. Workers have been told to work from home.”
I agree Sri Lanka is in desperate trouble (has been for years) and literally cannot pay its bills. In many ways it is more bankrupt now than Argentina was after the junta.
I don’t think it is population density though. From English colony days Sri Lanka was fertile, high rainfall, and never had any trouble feeding itself and exporting lots of tea and rice.
At the time of independence Sri Lanka was richer per capita than India. Now it is less than half as wealthy. So why the slide? I’d say:
1. Never resolved ethnic tensions between majority Sinhalese and Tamil minority, leading to civil war and ongoing discrimination vs Tamils
2. Rampant corruption
3. Rajpaksa family of Trump-like populist politicians looting the country since becoming PM
4. Covid and loss of tourism
5. Disastrous decision to ban fertiliser pushed economy over the edge.
You could add some disastrous deals with Chinese “investment” but I’d just lump that under corruption.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 3:08 pm
Tony Burke did some good work this week dealing with the landmines the Liberals left with the Job Network system.
Labors first month or so have been very good…’
————————-
Same old same old.
It was never same old/same old.
It was same/same. And often it is.
My own version was same/sameish.
The variance in enrolled electors per seat is interesting.
At least Tasmania can point to the Constitution for its five seats. However, the enrolments in the NT seats (Solomon and Lingiari) are smaller than Tassie’s five seats. The NSW seats of Paterson and Macarthur are each close to Solomon and Lingiari combined.
If exact one-vote-one-value parity is the noble goal, why not start with the NT? And fix the unrepresentative, one-vote-half-value electorates like Paterson and Macarthur.
My gut feel is that it’s not perfect, but it’s pretty good as it is. Does NSW really need more representation? If they keep electing the likes of Angus Taylor and Barnaby Joyce, there’s ample argument against giving them more.
Socrates
I agree with most of your analysis.
But, if the population were the same now as in 1950 they would not be facing starvation.
There ARE consequences of increasing a population beyond what can be grown sustainably.
Kangaroo Gang?
—————————
No bigger than that nath.
I did know one member called Jack Warren (dec).
I haven’t forgotten the night a number of us with partners went to a restaurant in Main Beach Gold Coast and when we arrived he gave all the staff $200 so we would get good service.
”
Socratessays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 1:09 pm
On AUKUS and Dutton’s claims:
“Patricia Karvelas@PatsKarvelas ·4h
Defence minister @RichardMarlesMP told me on @RNBreakfast says nuclear subs won’t be ready until 2040s and the idea it would be earlier is “Optimistic in the extreme” in his strongest comments yet on capability gap #auspol”
So it is clear Dutton was making up stuff again and there was no deal to achieve anything under AUKUS. Just an announcement and a gaping hole where our navy is suppose to be.
”
AUKUS deal announcement is just that, announcement to wedge ALP
Socrates at 2:58 pm
It was a real shock for me to discover how small the populations were in so many States. Total omg+fmd to find even Cave Capital Perth, hardly a metropolis, had a population larger than 15 US states.
Can I suggest a level of Brain Drain as part of the issue in Sri Lanka. I have worked with a number of very well qualified Sri Lankans here, who had no intentions of returning or were unable to return except for a quick visit
Dr John says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 3:20 pm
Kangaroo Gang?
—————————
No bigger than that nath.
__________
Mr Big?
Oakeshott country at 3:05 pm
Meanwhile over the Tasman. How N.Z. saw Federation and the invitation to join.
.
Australian cartoonists had a different view 🙂 ………….
Is Dreyfus dragging his heels re Collaery & K …?
Rex Douglas @ #762 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 3:31 pm
Where’s your evidence for making this assertion? Or is it just your latest troll?
The EU won’t be around in 2035. By then a considerable proportion, if not a majority, of countries that were previously in the EU will probably have right to far-right populist leaders and have chosen to leave the EU. And these governments would certainly not be in favour of banning combustion engines.
Like it or loathe it, fossil fuel technology is here to stay for a VERY long time.
Oh give it a rest trying to be the thought police C@t.
C@tmomma @ #943 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 3:32 pm
You’ve regressed in recent times to just attacking commenters needlessly.
p
Two yeehas each?
laughtong says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 3:27 pm
Can I suggest a level of Brain Drain as part of the issue in Sri Lanka. I have worked with a number of very well qualified Sri Lankans here, who had no intentions of returning or were unable to return except for a quick visit
______
I’ve always wanted Australia to develop closer relations with Sri Lanka. Such a beautiful country. A more relaxed residency arrangement between us would do wonders for both countries I think. We should be doing more there at least.
ajm @ #729 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 2:11 pm
He better devise a way to compensate poorer members of the community who are more often than not the ones who drive the old bombs that emit too much noxious exhaust fumes.
Boerwar:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 2:50 pm
[‘But then, if Charles can make political interventions and if Andrew can make an honest mistake with that Caribbean pedophile mate of his, we should probably not be too hard on Hurley.’]
The problem is that Charles can’t be removed from office other than if the Acts & other instruments that create and sustain the monarchy are repealed by parliament. And as far as Andrew’s concerned, only the Queen can de-Duke him, and he’ll always remain a prince of the realm, but always associated with Epstein, his only royal friends, the Queen, Fergie, and his daughters.
[‘It seems to me that Labor is intent on not causes essentially meaningless shitfights. They will presumably tuck Hurley away where he can do little or no harm.’]
Yes, I agree with you here. Replacing, say, Hurley for his latest indiscretion would infuriate monarchists and the Right. When the Queen dies, I think the republican cause will gain a surge of support. Hurley though should be on his best behaviour until his term is up in ’24. And for those who may’ve missed it:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-08/governor-general-lobbied-scott-morrison-leadership-program/100975582
Incidentally, a person on the left of Hurley’s wife looks like an undertaker, and dare I say it, dyes his hair.