Still nothing from Newspoll; the fortnightly Essential Research should be along this week, but may not tell us anything too exciting if it’s still holding off on resuming voting intention; and who knows what Roy Morgan might do.
Recent news items relevant to the federal sphere and within the ambit of this site:
• John Ferguson of The Australian reports on Liberal plans to get Josh Frydenberg back into federal parliament, which one party source rates as “only a matter of how and when”. However, finding a vehicle for his return is a problem with no obvious solution. While some are reportedly urging him to win back Kooyong, another Liberal is quoted saying an infestation of sandals and tofu in Hawthorn means the seat is now forever lost. Another idea is for him to win Higgins back from Labor, supposedly an easier task since Labor will receive weaker preference flows than an independent. There is also the difficulty that the local party is dominated by a moderate faction of which Frydenberg does not form part, despite efforts to cultivate an impression to the contrary as he struggled to fight off Monique Ryan. Suggestions he might try his hand on the metropolitan fringes at La Trobe and Monash are running into concerns that he might go the way of Kristina Keneally. Yet another source says he might sit out two terms, the idea being that conditions are likely to remain unfavourable for the party in 2025.
• The Australia Institute has published results from a poll of 1424 respondents conducted by Dynata from the day of the election on May 21 through to 25 which found 86% agreed that truth in political advertising laws should be in place by the time of the next election, with little demographic or partisan variation. Sixty-five per cent said they had been exposed to advertising they knew to be misleading at least once a week during the campaign.
• A further study by the Australia Institute found that Labor led the field on social media advertising with expenditure of more than $5 million, after its 2019 post-election review found its social media strategy had been lacking. The Coalition collectively spent around $3.5 million and the United Australia Party $1.7 million.
Election analysis tools:
• Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic has developed a three-pronged “pendulum” to deal with the limitations of the traditional Mackerras model, which entirely assumes two-party competition. Labor, the Coalition and “others” each get a two-sided prong, with margins against the other two recorded on opposite sides.
• David Barry again provides Senate preference calculators that work off the ballot paper data to allow you to observe how each parties’ preferences divided among the various other parties, which you can narrow down according to taste. The deluxe model involves a downloadable app that you can then populate with data files, but there is now a no-frills online version that is limited to above-the-line votes.
• Andrew Conway has a site that allows you to do all sorts of things with the Senate results once you have climbed its learning curve, such as conduct a double dissolution-style count in which twelve (or any other number you care to nominate) rather than six candidates are elected in each state (on a relevant state page, click the “recount” link, enter 12 in the vacancies box towards the bottom, and click “recount”. Its tools can be used not only on each Senate election going back to 2013, but also on New South Wales local government elections at which councillors were elected under the Senate-style single transferable vote system last December.
• Mitch Gooding offers a tool that allows you to replicate how you filled out your Senate paper and calculates exactly how your vote was chopped up and distributed through various exclusions in the count and which candidates it helped elect, if any.
‘laughtong says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 3:27 pm
Can I suggest a level of Brain Drain as part of the issue in Sri Lanka. I have worked with a number of very well qualified Sri Lankans here, who had no intentions of returning or were unable to return except for a quick visit’
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I am not sure what the brain drain has got to do with growing a population from 8 million to 22 million. It was only ever going to take average intelligence to understand that farm chemicals cannot suddenly be turned off without huge consequences for productivity.
It would be relatively straightforward to introduce vehicle emissions standards and to grandfather them.
I am sure that Labor knows nothing about vehicles emissions standards and is just waiting for the Xbenchers to jump up and down about it in front of an earnest Teals Gazette journo before even thinking about this policy initiative.
Rex Douglas @ #765 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 3:35 pm
Pot meet kettle. Except you reflexively just find ways to needle the government endlessly. One thing though, at least my contributions are more than one liners. And ‘regressed’? How passive aggressive of you, Rex Douglas. I bet you smiled at that one.
Poroti
“It was a real shock for me to discover how small the populations were in so many States. Total omg+fmd to find even Cave Capital Perth, hardly a metropolis, had a population larger than 15 US states.”
Exactly. This is how the Repugnants work their gerrymander – focusing on the small states that allow them to get a Senate majority and even Congress control with a minority of votes in a very rorted election process.
For all that I criticise the Hillary Clinton campaign, she won the popular vote with a margin that would have given her a clear win in an Australian election – similar to the 52/48 2pp Albo just gained.
The USA is a combination of a really broken electoral system with a country with very polarised demographics.
Snappy Tomsays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 2:40 pm
Why would I care about the US? There is so little to venerate.
Within each State and Territory your vote does have one vote, one value.
What guarantee are you talking about?
The country was established knowing that this may not always be the case between States.
What we are seeing is exactly how it was designed to work.
You joined by default – voting with your feet!
Considering how much wealthier Australia is compared to NZ you could say Australia dodged a bullet with NZ passing on the invitation.
Boerwar @ #771 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 3:48 pm
Yes, it’s a shame Labor chose to dump that policy before the election:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-to-dump-fuel-emissions-plan-in-next-step-on-climate-20211130-p59dkj.html
Jan 6 @ #775 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 3:53 pm
Isn’t poroti a Kiwi émigré himself?
Stop trolling Labor Rex. Support the government.
There is no need for NZ to federate.
Population of New Zealand 5 million.
Australians living in New Zealand 70,000.
New Zealanders living in Australia 670,000.
The strain of the virus in the current monkeypox outbreak in nonendemic countries likely diverged from the monkeypox virus that caused a 2018-19 Nigerian outbreak and has far more mutations than would be expected, several that increase transmission, according to a study today in Nature Medicine.
The study comes from Portugal’s National Institute of Health in Lisbon, which was the first institution to genetically sequence the current strain behind more than 3,000 cases of monkeypox in Europe, North America, and other regions that had never seen the virus until this year.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2022/06/virus-causing-monkeypox-outbreak-has-mutated-spread-easier
poroti is an exemplar of Australia’s gain being New Zealand’s loss.
Hh
Does wearing a mask stop monkeypox?
If Labor expressly stated it would not introduce fuel emission standards the way is still open for it to introduce them.
If it expressly stated it would not introduce them then I see zero chance of them being introduced in the next three years.
Is the Administrative Affairs Tribunal so compromised that we need to abolish it and rebuild? It’s being considered.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/attorney-general-mulls-option-to-abolish-aat-and-start-from-scratch-20220629-p5axjn.html
Yep, voting with their feet. They can say they are proud patriots in rejecting to join… but here they are. IMHO, it is Australia that gets the best of both worlds. We dont have to subsidise a poor, backblock NZ state – yet we get the economic boost of having so many of their best over here.
Piggy Muldoon used the old joke that New Zealanders living in Australia raised the IQ of both places by 10%
I first heard that one about the Member for Hunter, Bertie James leaving the NSW Police to join Federal Caucus
Boewar:
Monkeypox spreads in different ways. The virus can spread from person-to-person through:
direct contact with the infectious rash, scabs, or body fluids
respiratory secretions during prolonged, face-to-face contact, or during intimate physical contact, such as kissing, cuddling, or sex
touching items (such as clothing or linens) that previously touched the infectious rash or body fluids
pregnant people can spread the virus to their fetus through the placenta
It’s also possible for people to get monkeypox from infected animals, either by being scratched or bitten by the animal or by preparing or eating meat or using products from an infected animal.
Monkeypox can spread from the time symptoms start until the rash has fully healed and a fresh layer of skin has formed. The illness typically lasts 2-4 weeks. People who do not have monkeypox symptoms cannot spread the virus to others. At this time, it is not known if monkeypox can spread through semen or vaginal fluids.
https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/transmission.html
Jan 6
In the days when I had some sort of input to employment decisions I loved the cream that was arriving from the other side of the Detch. Class!
Hh
Thanks. Kindergarten kids are a definite threat, then.
Thanks for the link Steve.
Good to see the A-G is a fan of P-B and is starting to action my posts 😉
Roy Morgan @RoyMorganAus
51s
Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 2.9pts to 97.3 after Federal Election – lowest rating since September 2020 (85.6)
An unusual synchronicity of first Labor Prime Ministers in Australia and New Zealand. Australia’s first Labor PM ,Chris Watson, came over from NZ. NZ’s first Labor PM , Michael J Savage came from Australia. Michael J Savage currently serving as Mr Denmore’s avater.
Jan 6 at 4:09 pm
Careful you don’t piss them off too much. They might send a couple more Joh Bjelke Petersens, the first one they sent was bad enough.
Q: that person should also consult the parliament to appoint Monarch’s representative…….
I read this quickly and thought it said “Murdoch’s representative” 🙂
“Oakeshott countrysays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 4:10 pm
Piggy Muldoon used the old joke that New Zealanders living in Australia raised the IQ of both places by 10%
I first heard that one about the Member for Hunter, Bertie James leaving the NSW Police to join Federal Caucus”
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i first heard it from former NZ PM and opp leader Mike Moore who quipped, in response to NZ crims crowding out OZ jails, that the IQ on both sides rose when NZ shipped its criminals over here.
Voice Endeavour @ Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 4:14 pm
You aren’t Robinson Crusoe on this one 😉
IQ is one thing. Criminal cunning is quite another:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/03/impact-of-australia-s-cruel-deportations-and-number-of-501-crimes-in-new-zealand-revealed.html
Chris Bowen was rather impressive at the National Press Club at lunchtime today, dealt very well with the media questions too.
As for Rex and Nath, my advice is to ignore both of them, they’ve obviously decided to be trolls and anti Albanese Government trolls for the next 3 years.
Socrates says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 3:50 pm
Poroti
“It was a real shock for me to discover how small the populations were in so many States. Total omg+fmd to find even Cave Capital Perth, hardly a metropolis, had a population larger than 15 US states.”
Exactly. This is how the Repugnants work their gerrymander – focusing on the small states that allow them to get a Senate majority and even Congress control with a minority of votes in a very rorted election process.………
****************
Socrates, That’s not a gerrymander, that’s a malaportionment. Gerrymanders occur primarily in the larger states where district boundaries are drawn to maximise a preferred electoral outcome. While it may have the same practical effect, this isn’t the reason for the boundaries of those 15 states.
(The bipartisan position in the US in support of the partisan drawing of boundaries stands in marked contrast to the bipartisan position in 1980’s Australia that saw the establishment of one vote value in our electoral boundaries and the entrenchment of an independent Electoral Redistribution Commission and AEC to draw those boundaries and administer elections.)
Andrew McK
Good point, though in hindsight both factors (gerrymander and malapportionment) are present in the US electoral system.
I should have said the Repugnants have engineered a gerrymander in lower house seats and taken advantage of malapportionment in the Senate to regularly gain control of Congress with <50% of the vote. The Republicans have not won a majority of the popular vote in US elections since Dubbya in 2004.
Evan @ #978 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 4:28 pm
I would suggest that Labor partisans have decided to be very over-sensitive to any scrutiny or criticism for the next 3 yrs.
‘Evan says:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 4:28 pm
Chris Bowen was rather impressive at the National Press Club at lunchtime today, dealt very well with the media questions too….’
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It was most refreshing to have a minister who answered questions directly and to the point. There actually is finally a point to pressers when ministers answer the questions they are asked. I am curious to see how QT goes. I assume that Labor will pursue the same approach.
Dr John @ #936 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 3:20 pm
That’s the American way. Tip early; tip often.
”
Honest Bastardsays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 2:45 pm
Have found an Indian (former diplomat) commentator recently, who I find quite insightful and also useful in looking at global affairs from an Indian perspective.
> Roughly half of the 3 decades of my diplomatic career was devoted to assignments on the territories of the former Soviet Union and to Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan. Other overseas postings included South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, and Turkey. I write mainly on Indian foreign policy and the affairs of the Middle East, Eurasia, Central Asia, South Asia and the Asia-Pacific.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/about-me/
He publishes on his own website, and his take on the recent G7 summit was an interesting one :
https://www.indianpunchline.com/g7-cracks-in-western-unity-on-russia/
”
Honest Bastard
Our PM and other Western countries are talking the brave talk. Can they walk the brave walk beyond “Sanctions from hell” pain threshold. As Germany Chancellor said at end of G7 summit, the world is facing uncertain future and unfortunately it appears the casualty could be Climate change action.
I’d go as far to say that Bowens performance today was Daniel Andrews-like.
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 4:38 pm
“scruiny and criticism”?
Someone as vacuous as yourself would have no idea what these words really mean.
the new government is off to a better start then prodicted but mark Dreyfuss is imo the weakist performer has no idea what the national integrity comition design will be desbite albanese making it a key election promis however on colary with asio influence very difficult foor labor to act Denis richardson seems to be advising alp on national security and his a strong suporter of the colary prosecution given he was asio director during east teamore bugging
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/attorney-general-mulls-option-to-abolish-aat-and-start-from-scratch-20220629-p5axjn.html
The government is considering whether it’s possible to scrap a key review body that has been stacked with Liberal-linked members as integrity experts call for transparency and competitiveness around all senior public appointments.
Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus is doing a “very serious review” of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, which has seen case lists blow out, particularly for migration and NDIS matters, and people waiting up to two years for a decision.
………………….
One option is disbanding the AAT and starting again from scratch, as recommended in a Senate committee report handed down in March. Dreyfus has not ruled this out.
So milten dick will be the new speaker wish we had a nother aterney general other than dreyfusss
Boerwar @ #963 Wednesday, June 29th, 2022 – 3:59 pm
It does, but the difficult bit is to convince the monkeys to wear them.
Is MelbourneMammoth (see 3.32) the latest incarnation of Freya/Nostra, or even Wayne or Bree? Or, you know, someone? The language form seems familiar…
Barney in Cherating says:
“scruiny and criticism”?
Someone as vacuous as yourself would have no idea what these words really mean.
______________
You are the epitome of vacuousness. All you do is respond to Rex and P1 posts with empty one line insults.
Snappy Tom
“Is MelbourneMammoth (see 3.32) the latest incarnation of Freya/Nostra, or even Wayne or Bree? Or, you know, someone? The language form seems familiar…”
Perhaps they could name themselves “Menzies House Spare Desk PC”, or something equally informative?
That’s the American way. Tip early; tip often.
—————————————-
At the time I actually asked him why so much.
He replied ” have ya ever seen a Mayne Nickless truck following a hearse?
Funnily, years after his death his wife, her sister and daughter went to Switzerland to collect a few $million secreted in a bank safety deposit box.
To their dismay there was no longer a bank as it gone broke, building had been demolished and the 3 chicks returned to Aus very empty handed!
Barney at 3.52
Section 24 of the Constitution grants each original state at least 5 HOR members. This can only be changed by referendum – incredibly difficult in this country. Further, should a proposal seek to say, reduce Tas’ numbers to 4, it would also have to be approved by a majority in Tas. Thus, as close to a guarantee as we get.
Also, someone else posted re using NT as a baseline. NT seats are almost 10% smaller in voters than Tas, which is why I’m comfortable honouring the 5 seat original state minimum while expanding other jurisdictions’ member numbers to a similar average voter population to Tas.
Stop sooking, nath.
Boerwar at 3.57
There is no need for NZ to federate.
Population of New Zealand 5 million.
Australians living in New Zealand 70,000.
New Zealanders living in Australia 670,000.
___________
Federation by stealth! Just as well none of them came by boat…
nath,
Just highlights how little attention you pay.
You are going to almost always have a malapportionment in a Federation of States. If you really want the low population states then you are probably going to have to give you them equal representation.
Many seem to forget that the Federation is built on the foundation of the States and somehow, I’ve never understood it, see the States as little more of the color of paint on a particular wall of the Federation House.
I’m not say the malapportionment is great, just that it is part of the entry price for big states on Federation. On the other hand a gerrymander is just an inexcusable ‘cheat’ and weakening of democracy that is inexcusable and if only they all blew up like Labor’s in Qld they’d soon be killed off, but it seems Labor’s experience in Qld was atypical.