There are posts above on state politics in New South Wales and below on the slow motion demise of Boris Johnson. This one covers local electoral news relevant to (mostly) the federal tier:
• In an article for The Monthly by George Megalogenis, Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney relates research suggesting home owners were nearly twice as likely to vote Coalition than non-home owners after controlling for income. However, there was a marked exception for those under 35, who were twice as likely to vote Labor and Greens than the Coalition, which played a major role in the latter’s disastrous showing in the big cities. The Coalition had just 16% support among renters, compared with 38% for Labor and 35% for the Greens. Home owners were only half as likely to vote for the Greens as renters, while distinctions among Labor were more modest. This was based on the Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the campaign from a sample of around 5800 by YouGov and various universities, which we will be hearing a lot more from in future.
• The Guardian reports Senator Andrew Bragg is pushing for changes to the New South Wales Liberal Party’s rules at its annual general meeting later this month to allow preselections to proceed without the involvement of the leader’s representative in the nomination review process. This seemingly arcane point lay at the centre of the long-running logjam in its preselection process before the federal election, when Scott Morrison’s centre right faction ally Alex Hawke persistently failed to show at meetings to move the process forward. Factional rivals said this was a deliberate effort to force the national executive to intervene to protect centre right incumbents from preselection defeats. Bragg’s proposal has been criticised by Hollie Hughes, Liberal Senator and centre right member, who instead blames reforms championed by Tony Abbott that required the concurrence of 90% of state executive members to certify factional deals that would have broken the deadlock.
• Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reports members of Labor’s Cabramatta branch have reacted to Kristina Keneally’s parachute malfunction in Fowler by calling for those who “white-anted” her to be disciplined. This included passage of a motion calling on the party administration to consider expelling Tu Le, whose own aspirations for the seat were thwarted by the Keneally manoeuvre. Local sources cited by Knott said members were “peeved by the presumption Le would have won a rank-and-file ballot given she had only moved to the electorate a year earlier herself and was not well-known in the area”.
• Poll Bludger regular Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the performance of the polls at the federal election, which I mean to get around covering myself in depth eventually.
• Matt Martino of the ABC drew upon my supposed expertise in a fact check on claims made by Barnaby Joyce about the federal election result. I rated him no pinocchios, but told him to watch it anyway.
• Late counting has shown the Liberals’ performance in Saturday’s Bragg state by-election in South Australia to have been a bit less bad than it appeared on the night. There has actually been a 2.8% swing in their favour on postals and pre-polls, compared with a 6.0% swing on the election day votes that were all we had to go on on Saturday. This leaves the Liberal margin at 5.5%, down from 8.2% at the March election (and 16.8% at the election before).
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Aaron newtonsays:
Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 8:52 pm
Do not think sunack will get the job becaus he was sceen as to ambishous working behind sceens to bring him down but publickly pleging loilty sort of like morrison wonder if trus will one wallace would be the best option very low profile until ucraine but could push him self as the middle candadate was one of johnsons longist suporters working on both of his campaigns 2016 and 2019 atacking goave in 2016 fore ruining his first bid
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Aaron Newton
You are right. Sunak will not become British PM. It will be either Truss or Wallace. They are in very good Ministries.
Adrian Beaumont
My only query. Starmer is threatening to bring no confidence motion against BOJO next week. Will it be successful? If it is successful, then what will happen? If it is not successful then doesn’t that mean BOJO has Confidence of his party and House of Commons?
I was going to nominate Florey as the greatest Australian too… I think Adelaide has produced more nobel laureates than any other Australian city…
ar: “The deal always allowed Musk to pull out. He just has to pay the $1 billion breakup fee. ”
Great news. $1B to get back to the important stuff; Space rockets.
I want my space rocket goddamit.
Perese sure looks like he’s done a cruciate. Poor fella.
a r @ #650 Saturday, July 9th, 2022 – 9:02 pm
It ‘may’ be worse, He may be forced to complete or pay more then the 1 Billion.
Too early to tell. You can find the articles etc if you want.
Paul The Avenger @ #406 Saturday, July 9th, 2022 – 8:01 pm
Exactly. Zelenskeyy gave inmates with combat experience the chance to get out of jail and defend their country. Their criminal rat cunning was probably a plus as well. 😀
ven agree i think the economick plans he wants adopting masive cost cutting would be hard to sell being defence or foreign affairs with ucrane will be a better selling point plus trus and wallace have been careful to avoid claims that they are atempting to replace johnson its strange wallace has allways been a johnson backer even in 2016 when he pulled out
I saw this on twitter:
In case you don’t know, there is shortage of tampons in USA right now.
Baby formula food in US is in short supply. Now above. Abortion is banned.
All connected to Women.
Sri Lankan President Rajapaksa’s whereabouts not known
Embattled Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s whereabouts were not known, reported news agency PTI. The development came after he was moved out of his residence on Friday ahead of Saturday’s protests during which thousands of irate anti-government protesters stormed into his official residence in Colombo.
Argentina inflation is galloping at 60% per annum. Yes it is not a Typo. 60%.
Like Argentina, there are about 60 countries on the very verge of collapse including Sri Lanka.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-08/overnight-20-price-jump-supercharges-argentine-inflation-crisis
Ven
On twitter now there is video of President Rajapaksa’s convoy arriving at the airport and reports he has fled the country.
What game is James O’Connor playing!?
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Socratessays:
Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 10:01 pm
Ven
On twitter now there is video of President Rajapaksa’s convoy arriving at the airport and reports he has fled the country.
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Socrates
Speaker to take over as Sri Lanka’s President for now
A crucial party meeting is underway at the speaker’s residence. Several other leaders, including PM, AKD and Sumanthiran participated in the meeting via zoom. It has been decided to ask both the President and the Prime Minister to resign. The speaker will take over as Sri Lanka temporary President, according to the constitution.
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Dandy Murray-Honeydewsays:
Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 10:06 pm
What game is James O’Connor playing!?
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Who is James O’ Connor?
A rugby player, ven, who is clearly past it.
Situation in SL is febrile, by the look of it.
According to BBC
Canada is hit by massive Mobile and Internet outage.
North Italy suffers worst drought in 70 years.
Several municipalities announced water rationing
Pi says:
Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 7:19 pm
Sports people owe no-one anything. I hate this deification that some people expect sports people to adhere to. They have to think about what people think of them? pffft. I can see captains of teams having responsibility for a team, and even responsibility to your team mates if you’re in a team. But if your job is to smack a ball with all of your might, and you’re good at it, onya lass/lad. If people don’t like your personality, fuckem.
“I hope Kyrgios wins. I remember this same pile-on bs with Hewitt. Number 40 in the world in the Wimbledon final. Legend. If he wins it will be epic. Love seeing good ball smackers smack balls.”
And what of the victims of his abuse, the umpires, lines people and ball boys and girls (children)? Any thoughts about his responsibilities to them and their rights?
Re Socrates 5.47 pm and 10.01 pm
Note the irony of the murderous plunderer G Rajapaksa fleeing only 3 days after Putin chatted to him by phone over oil sales. Horrendous war crimes were committed by the Sri Lankan military at the end of the war 13 years ago, e.g. bombing hospitals. One less monster in power each day would be good.
The best book on Putin is by Karen Dawisha, Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who rules Russia? (2014). Here is a talk she gave at the Wilson Center when the book was launched (she talks for a bit over 30 mins):
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/putins-kleptocracy-who-owns-russia
Parts of the start of her book are visible via google but her book is well worth buying. NYT review:
https://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/30/books/review/putins-kleptocracy-by-karen-dawisha.html
I have to say that for those who defend Kyrgios’ behaviour, there seems to be a singular stunning silence as to the rights of the umpires, lines persons, ball boys and girls to work in a safe environment, free from abuse and humiliation. I find this willingness to overlook their welfare somewhat disturbing. Perhaps his rights outweigh theirs?
@Cronus
I find there is a strong overlap between people who share those views and those who are dismissive of workers rights.
“ I have to say that for those who defend Kyrgios’ behaviour, there seems to be a singular stunning silence as to the rights of the umpires, lines persons, ball boys and girls to work in a safe environment, free from abuse and humiliation. I find this willingness to overlook their welfare somewhat disturbing. Perhaps his rights outweigh theirs?”
I hear that Nick also stages for free kicks as well.
Dr Doolittle
Thanks for the link. Re Putin.
On the Rajapaksa clan, I agree in general on both the war crimes and shameless corruption. They are like a family of Sri Lankan Trumps.
I get them all confused but I thought it was elder brother Mahindra who was the leader when the attrocities were committed against the Tamils?
Today it was younger brother Gotabaya who fled. Mahindra had stepped down as PM a few weeks ago, handing over to his younger brother in a bizarre “keep it in the family” attempt to put off the protestors. At first they trucked in supporters to beat the protestors.
It will be interesting to see where the Rajapaksas flee too. They presumably have stashed money but are hated in India after the death of so many Tamils. The current climate for moving around millions is a lot tougher than before the Ukraine war started. Their father was also a SL politician.
Cronus
For a lot of people, Sports is another form of war in peace time.
Since a lot of countries can not win in actual war, winning in sports satisfies desire to win by another means. Translated from another language, it is called “dog’s happiness”.
Kyrgios is a wanker. If he wins he wins, if he loses he loses. Whatever…
Andrew Constance potentially to replace Marise Payne in the Senate, according to Linda Silmaris’s The Sauce column, a.k.a. the only good thing about the Telegraph.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/the-sauce-rumours-andrew-constance-is-eyeing-senate-seat/news-story/21ea75a3d59088acd03b36ea4151ff2e
“Defence chiefs are said to be fed up with trying to enact the [UK] prime minister and home secretary’s rapidly imploding plan of using the military to control small boats in the Channel.
“Ministry of Defence data shows crossings have close to doubled since the military was given “primacy” over the issue …
“Patel and Johnson were warned that deploying the Royal Navy would be likely to increase the number of crossings but ignored expert advice because … they wanted to appear tough.”
Who needs those experts, eh?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/09/priti-patels-plan-to-end-channel-crossings-in-disarray-as-navy-threatens-to-walk-away
Cronus @ #671 Saturday, July 9th, 2022 – 10:32 pm
It’s not overlooking. There are rules in place that are supposed to protect them from that. Kyrgios was fined under them. As was Tsitsipas.
Whether or not the rules are adequate at accomplishing their goal is a separate question. But if you’re proposing that different rules be adopted that would perhaps see someone who behaved like Kyrgios kicked out of/banned from tournaments, then any fair application of that standard would likely kick out many others. Zverev surely. And Djokovic. Even Nadal and Federer have gone off at officials. Their abuse shouldn’t count less, and Kyrgios’s shouldn’t count more.
So adopt a stricter standard and punish anyone who doesn’t live up to it 100% at all times. Zero tolerance, no exceptions. That’s an option, sure. Staff should never have to face abuse from ill-tempered players, and that would accomplishes the goal.
But professional tennis is a stressful environment, where people are competing for large sums of money while surrounded by crowds of screaming spectators in an environment where one bad call can change the outcome of a match and injuries are sometimes carreer-ending and not hugely uncommon. The players are only human, and the spectators probably mostly want the winner of a tennis tournament to be whomever plays the best tennis. So a stricter standard that sees players freqently removed for behavioral issues may not be the best option.
Acknowledging that there’s a complicated and messy problem that doesn’t really have an ideal solution isn’t quite the same as defending Kyrgios. His attitude sucks. But he’s good at tennis. As long as he’s subject to the same rules as everyone else, takes his punishment, pays his fines, etc.., that’s not ideal but he can plan and if there’s a problem at the end of that it’s more with the rules and governance than with Kyrgios himself.
Interesting regarding Andrew Constance William,
I know he and Marise are long time great and close friends who in some ways shared their journey up the tree together.
I’m not sure of the technical workings of the NSW LIB procedures. Would the premier be allowed to automatically endorse his pick from the party as he I legally entitled to? Or would their state exec need to rubber stamp a replacement and then advise the premier to make the appointment?.
Maybe the party machine sees it as a win win- Constance will add a much needed boost to the now almost extinct moderate faction and give the very unpopular Dutton some much needed public support. On the other hand Dutton would be agreeable to it as it will keep Constance in the senate and thus be insulated from a challenge.
One would also assume one of the moderates that lost to the teals may want that spot- thinking. Zimmerman or particularly the technocrat Sharma.
Who knows lol, maybe they’ll slot him into the senate to keep his name in lights and then parachute him into cook at the next election
Britain Elects
@BritainElects
·
3h
The race to replace Boris Johnson, afternoon update (Tory MPs publicly supporting) (9 July)
Sunak: 18 MPs (+12)
Braverman: 9 (+5)
Mordaunt: 7 (+5)
Badenoch: 6 (+6)
Truss: 6 (+3)
Tugendhat: 6 (+1)
Zahawi: 3 (+2)
Chgs. w/ 24hrs ago
I’ve been looking at the #NeverRishi and #ReinstateBoris twitters 🙂
Seems the Daily Mail is briefing against Sunak
There’s a Reinstate Boris online petition at change.org .. 6500 sign-ups today so far 🙂
‘The bitter civil war engulfing the Conservatives looks set to deepen as the party braces for what is likely to become the dirtiest leadership campaign in history .. So divided is the party that at least two rival leadership campaign teams have passed the Labour Party a digital dossier containing a series of lurid allegations about their potential opponents. Last week tongues were set wagging when a prominent supporter of one of the frontrunners in the race was seen meeting a senior Labour official at the White Horse pub in Soho, central London’
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8fe8d9d6-ff93-11ec-b9c1-d737fca5ec6a
How hilarious that Boris apparently had to be talked out of putting the frail, 96 year old monarch into the centre of a political and constitutional crisis.
Reports saying he wanted to meet the Queen to request the dissolution of parliament to call an election with the argument that he had a massive personal mandate given by voters throughout the country and he wanted to prove it via an election.
Calling an election to avoid the pesky annoyances in the House of Commons such as votes of no confidentiality etc- he essentially wanted to serve at her majesties’ leisure for over a month without a parliament to have to answer to
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Unless you want dross, this is all you get today. Hardly worth the effort!
Paul Karp writes that Labor will push to legislate spending caps and truth in political advertising, as well as promote adherence to the one-vote one-value principle in an ambitious suite of electoral reforms.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/10/labor-aims-to-legislate-spending-caps-and-truth-in-advertising-says-don-farrell
Australia’s economy needs a shake-up to ensure “cosy monopolists” don’t dominate the market, with the new minister for competition, Andrew Leigh, pledging to legislate tough new penalties of up to $50m for anti-competitive behaviour.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/09/labor-vows-to-shake-up-cosy-monopolists-with-fines-of-up-to-50m-for-anti-competitive-behaviour
The SMH editorial says that the challenge is to raise awareness and maintain the good habits we learnt in the first two years of the pandemic by appealing to our good sense. Will the “herd” listen?
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/careful-health-messaging-key-to-stop-winter-covid-crisis-20220709-p5b0d8.html
The latest advice is to give up the pain relief of gas and air during labour. Clearly this is being doled out by those who’ve never had to stretch their bits the standard 10 kilometres, writes Kathy Lette.
https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/a-natural-birth-in-the-name-of-the-environment-absolutely-not-20220704-p5ayvz.html
The media and the opposition have made much of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s gall in travelling overseas. Cries of hypocrisy are flying thick and fast around criticism of Scott Morrison travelling overseas during a natural disaster when Mr Albanese is doing the same thing, writes Tim Jones.
https://theaimn.com/blinded-by-the-right-albo-overseas/
The appointment of Chancellors, celebrity professors and even high-level management in Australia’s universities, especially at the Australian National University, is best understood comparatively – as a template derived from the Roman Curia, and water polo – and through the application of The Generalised Iceberg Theorem: two-thirds of what determines outcomes takes place out of sight, writes Michael McKinley.
https://johnmenadue.com/the-tragedy-and-self-harm-of-celebrity-appointments-in-the-universities/
Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will step down next Wednesday, the country’s parliamentary speaker said yesterday, bowing to popular pressure after a day of violent protests in which demonstrators stormed the president’s official residence and set fire to the prime minister’s home in Colombo.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/protesters-storm-sri-lankan-president-s-house-clash-with-police-20220709-p5b0du.html
A pregnant woman in Texas told police that her unborn child counted as an additional passenger after being cited for driving alone in a high-occupancy vehicle lane, offering up a potentially clever defence for motorists navigating the legal landscape following the supreme court’s striking down of nationwide abortion rights last month. Well, they asked for it!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/09/texas-woman-ticket-abortion-roe-v-wade
Cartoon Corner
Matt Golding
Peter Broelman
Reg Lynch
Matt Davidson
Glen Le Lievre
From the US
Thanks BK. Indeed a slow Sunday.
Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin is off to the Ruisrock festival.
Thanks regardless BK.
From the Courier Mail
Labor has moved quickly to grant charity status to The Grace Tame Foundation, saying the Morrison government’s delay in doing so was politically motivated.
So constence and payne are friends think he thanked her along with a bunch of others including future federal mp jason phelinskie in 2003 sharmer also wants senit spot but constence said if he lost gilmore that was it with politics
Thanks BK. It might be a slow day but this piece of news is positive and potentially very consequential for future elections. “Truth in political advertising” can be a hard nut to crack, but definitely worth giving it a go.
Paul Karp writes that Labor will push to legislate spending caps and truth in political advertising, as well as promote adherence to the one-vote one-value principle in an ambitious suite of electoral reforms.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/10/labor-aims-to-legislate-spending-caps-and-truth-in-advertising-says-don-farrell
wonder if constence runs weather sharmer will still nominate there could be some female candadates never got the apeel behind constence was good on floods but said politics is brockin and apeerd bord but is pushing to enter federal politics in state cant imagin ray williams getting carsilhill again
Aaron I believe Sharma would be the better fit for the senate vacancy. He is extremely intelligent and would probably be compatible to his skill sets and allow him to delve right into strategic policy development without having to also keep an electorate happy
Starfish Prime: The First Accidental Geomagnetic Storm
https://spaceweatherarchive.com/2022/07/08/starfish-prime-the-first-accidental-geomagnetic-storm/
IT’S RAINING AGAIN! 😯
Wonder when albanese will anowse his senyor staff like chief of staff and security advisor maybi he will reliy more on thedepartments
I actually think that Jane Buncle would be the sanest choice for the Liberals to replace Marise Payne in the Senate. For a start she’s obviously female, so replacing like for like. However, she also would come with some intellectual heft and would be a worthy choice as Attorney General… about 12 years down the track. 🙂
Aaron newton,
For about the millionth time:
Tim Gartrell (born 1970) is an Australian political advisor currently serving as the Chief of Staff to the Prime Minister of Australia under Anthony Albanese.
And for a Security Adviser, the PM could do worse than Allan Behm. Though I think he’s ensconced comfortably at The Australia Institute for now.
Good to see the optics at the G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting in Bali. Sergey Lavrov being treated like the fart in the elevator and scuttling off with his tail between his legs and the Chinese Ambassador, Wang Yi, meeting with Australian FM Penny Wong on the sidelines, and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Hopefully the Chinese are realising what the limits of their ‘No Limits’ partnership with Russia are.
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/president-zelenskyy-sacks-ukraine-s-envoy-to-india-4-other-countries-1973839-2022-07-09
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Kyiv’s ambassador to Germany on Saturday as well as several other top foreign envoys, the presidential website said.
In a decree that gave no reason for the move, he announced the sacking of Ukraine’s ambassadors to Germany, India, Czech Republic, Norway and Hungary.
it was reportid aafter election that gartrell had resigned as chief of staff think the agree abbout sharmer would be a good shadow foreign minister or defence with out focusing on a ilectorite currently albanese has a former diplomat but could go with denis richardson who seems to be suportive security direction however he did suport port of darwin lease and was howards head of asio