Home alone (open thread)

New research suggests home ownership together with age were the distinguishing cleavages of the recent federal election, plus post-election blame games on both sides of politics.

There are posts above on state politics in New South Wales and below on the slow motion demise of Boris Johnson. This one covers local electoral news relevant to (mostly) the federal tier:

• In an article for The Monthly by George Megalogenis, Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney relates research suggesting home owners were nearly twice as likely to vote Coalition than non-home owners after controlling for income. However, there was a marked exception for those under 35, who were twice as likely to vote Labor and Greens than the Coalition, which played a major role in the latter’s disastrous showing in the big cities. The Coalition had just 16% support among renters, compared with 38% for Labor and 35% for the Greens. Home owners were only half as likely to vote for the Greens as renters, while distinctions among Labor were more modest. This was based on the Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the campaign from a sample of around 5800 by YouGov and various universities, which we will be hearing a lot more from in future.

The Guardian reports Senator Andrew Bragg is pushing for changes to the New South Wales Liberal Party’s rules at its annual general meeting later this month to allow preselections to proceed without the involvement of the leader’s representative in the nomination review process. This seemingly arcane point lay at the centre of the long-running logjam in its preselection process before the federal election, when Scott Morrison’s centre right faction ally Alex Hawke persistently failed to show at meetings to move the process forward. Factional rivals said this was a deliberate effort to force the national executive to intervene to protect centre right incumbents from preselection defeats. Bragg’s proposal has been criticised by Hollie Hughes, Liberal Senator and centre right member, who instead blames reforms championed by Tony Abbott that required the concurrence of 90% of state executive members to certify factional deals that would have broken the deadlock.

Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reports members of Labor’s Cabramatta branch have reacted to Kristina Keneally’s parachute malfunction in Fowler by calling for those who “white-anted” her to be disciplined. This included passage of a motion calling on the party administration to consider expelling Tu Le, whose own aspirations for the seat were thwarted by the Keneally manoeuvre. Local sources cited by Knott said members were “peeved by the presumption Le would have won a rank-and-file ballot given she had only moved to the electorate a year earlier herself and was not well-known in the area”.

• Poll Bludger regular Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the performance of the polls at the federal election, which I mean to get around covering myself in depth eventually.

• Matt Martino of the ABC drew upon my supposed expertise in a fact check on claims made by Barnaby Joyce about the federal election result. I rated him no pinocchios, but told him to watch it anyway.

• Late counting has shown the Liberals’ performance in Saturday’s Bragg state by-election in South Australia to have been a bit less bad than it appeared on the night. There has actually been a 2.8% swing in their favour on postals and pre-polls, compared with a 6.0% swing on the election day votes that were all we had to go on on Saturday. This leaves the Liberal margin at 5.5%, down from 8.2% at the March election (and 16.8% at the election before).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

994 comments on “Home alone (open thread)”

Comments Page 15 of 20
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  1. Dont know what will happin in ucrane aparently before whe war Zelenskeydid not do a very good job as president and went thoough a lot ofministers and 2 pms eventua;ly surroundid him self with people from his tv show in security roles

  2. Jaeger
    Both sides must have scared the crap out of themselves with their tests as they both signed up for a ban on such tests the next year.

    OMG the EMP power (from Wikipedia on the Russian test)

    The electromagnetic pulse (EMP) fused all of the 570-kilometer monitored overhead telephone line with measured currents of 1500 to 3400 amperes during the 22 October 1962 test………..EMP from the same test caused the destruction of the Karaganda power plant, and shut down 1,000 km (620 mi) of shallow-buried power cables between Astana and Almaty.

    Have some music

    -The Tornados -Telstar – orig video

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mn6TNWVjZP0

  3. Zulenski on closer reading appears to be a dictator him self now seeks to control all media and has band all opposition parties aayingthey have links to rusia plus before becoming president he played one on tv his prizon decition isnot right


  4. Aaron newton says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 8:14 am

    Zulenski on closer reading

    So you have found the Russian propaganda sites, congratulations.

  5. These sorts of articles about Albo’s “globe trotting” are instructive about how our MSM works. The Liberals issue talking points, Newscorp broadcasts them and the. rest of the MSM then gives them more oxygen, even if it’s to challenge them. Hey presto: suddenly manifestly partisan coalition lines are treated as subjects of serious political discourse and inserted into the national conversation.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/unfairly-or-not-a-globe-trotting-pm-courts-trouble-if-only-menzies-listened-to-his-wife-20220707-p5azzz.html

    “The criticisms levelled at Albanese are unreasonable. The comparisons with Scott Morrison’s Hawaiian vacation in December 2019 during the bushfires are absurd. Counting in the election had only recently finished; parliament has not resumed; the present season would normally be its winter recess”

  6. Themunz @ #517 Saturday, July 9th, 2022 – 1:31 pm

    WeWantPaulsays:
    Saturday, July 9, 2022 at 1:22 pm

    Biographer Ashlee Vance tells the story of how Musk became involved with Tesla.

    Anyone truely interested should read it.

    Good morning.

    Themunz, hope you are well, and thanks for the link to Vance, which led me to this interview. Not exactly Sunday morning stuff, but I found it very interesting. One thing that jumped out was the comment that a common thought system within this group of ‘super people’ (I’m not here to work that through, but high achievers at the upper taper of the IQ bell curve might be a start) there is a haunting belief that there is an existential threat to existence of Earth, which feeds into their drive to achieve.

    2015

    https://youtu.be/EEDDVbnYoP8

  7. The best thing Elon Musk has done in a while is provide the Starlink satellites that Ukraine is using to get around the attempts by Russia to block their communications. Well done, that man.

  8. Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. As you say, not much on offer. Looks like many journos, like Dutton, have gone on holidays. That is common this time of year with no parliament, but it underlines the emptiness of criticising Albo for constant travel since election. In fact Albo and senior ministers have worked incredibly hard.

    Rakali

    Ruis Rock is like a Finnish Glastonberry. I saw Aerosmith and the Leningrad Cowboys play there in the 1990s.

  9. Speaking of super IQ humans, here’s a fun fact: Albert Einstein and Abraham Lincoln were born on the same day.

  10. Aaron newton at 8:11 am
    Re the people he surrounded himself with. This article may interest you. It was written just a few months before the war and looks at his presidency and his great fall in popularity 75%->25%(and falling) .
    The article comes from these people.
    The Kennan Institute is the premier U.S. center for advanced research on Russia and Eurasia and the oldest and largest regional program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.

    Just Like All the Others: The End of the Zelensky Alternative?
    November 2, 2021

    The Kennan Institute is sponsoring an online round table dedicated to the successes and failures of Zelensky’s presidency, to take place on November 15, 2021. In this blog post I want to take a look at what has happened to President Zelensky’s image, and specifically at how from a radical alternative to political cynicism he has turned into a “just like all the others” politician whose popular support is waning.

    ………….The 73 percent of voters who supported him (or who voted against the incumbent, Petro Poroshenko) in the presidential elections had a clear set of change demands: (1) to find a solution to the Donbas war, (2) to rein in the constantly growing prices for communal services unmatched by an equivalent growth in household income, and (3) to revise divisive cultural policies. Even though Zelensky’s platform as candidate was at best hazy, one thing was crystal clear—here was a man who was different in every way from the hungry hordes of the old elites.

    https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/just-all-others-end-zelensky-alternative

  11. As we in the West watched the disintegration of the Soviet Empire, expecting the former states to become bastions of democracy, we forgot one vital ingredient. The ingredient being a history of civil society governed by universal suffrage and the rule of law, not might.
    Russia has never had this democratic experience.
    The great opportunity to be rid of Putin was missed. A long range missile, if available, should have been fired at Red Square during the May Day parade, by Ukraine, hopefully with the result of taking out Putin, most of his Politburo and most of his military command.

  12. Still trying to push the Anti Zelenskeyy line, poroti? Woodrow Wilson was one of the most right wing presidents of America and his think tank is founded by the biggest of Big Money:

    https://www.wilsoncenter.org/2020-donors

    They’d rather have Putin and the oligarchs, plus puppets in satellite states, any day. No wonder they put out a shit sheet on President Zelenskyy.

  13. #weatheronPB
    Grab a beany, sneak outside.
    Pause silently to admire the sparkling leaves.
    Ah, the dew betrays me.

  14. Sohar @ #716 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 8:34 am

    “Albert Einstein and Abraham Lincoln were born on the same day”
    Same date, surely, not the same day.

    You’re right. I just checked. Not even the same day. Einstein: 14/3/1879; Lincoln: 12/02/1809.

    Moral of the story: don’t believe everything you hear. 🙂

  15. I see the mob has turned on Aaron newton with ‘troll’ sledges for daring to have an opinion re Zelensky.

    Bullies abound…


  16. Aaron newtonsays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 8:11 am
    Dont know what will happin in ucrane aparently before whe war Zelenskeydid not do a very good job as president and went thoough a lot ofministers and 2 pms eventua;ly surroundid him self with people from his tv show in security roles

    Aaron Newton
    Don’t say such things. Zelenskyy is the Hero of Western countries. 🙂

  17. Thank you, BK.

    sunny
    windy
    6

    Those who have been chanting ‘same old same old’ for that past decade should hang their heads in disgrace.

    ‘…
    ‘Paul Karp writes that Labor will push to legislate spending caps and truth in political advertising, as well as promote adherence to the one-vote one-value principle in an ambitious suite of electoral reforms.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/10/labor-aims-to-legislate-spending-caps-and-truth-in-advertising-says-don-farrell
    —————————————————-

  18. Rex Douglas @ #723 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 8:47 am

    I see the mob has turned on Aaron newton with ‘troll’ sledges for daring to have an opinion re Zelensky.

    Bullies abound…

    Don’t look at me. I simply corrected his mistakes. Be more specific, Rex Douglas instead of using a broad brush sledge yourself.

  19. Ven @ #726 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 8:48 am


    Aaron newtonsays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 8:11 am
    Dont know what will happin in ucrane aparently before whe war Zelenskeydid not do a very good job as president and went thoough a lot ofministers and 2 pms eventua;ly surroundid him self with people from his tv show in security roles

    Aaron Newton
    Don’t say such things. Zelenskyy is the Hero of Western countries. 🙂

    Would you rather have a puppet of Putin in Ukraine? Or for Ukraine to become a Client State dependent on Russian Fossil Fuels so as to mute their criticism, like India?

  20. Rex

    Telling someone they’re factually wrong, on something they could easily have checked for themselves, is not sledging.

    Sohar, for example, has just corrected a mistake C@ made. That wasn’t sledging.

  21. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 7:44 am
    “IT’S RAINING AGAIN! ”

    When even too much isn’t enough apparently. Just what nobody needs at this stage.

  22. C@tmomma: Re Shared Birthdays.
    Brian Wilson and Paul McCartney are a better combo – and both were and still representative of the greatest popular music of the 20th Century.

  23. zoomster @ #733 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 8:57 am

    Rex

    Telling someone they’re factually wrong, on something they could easily have checked for themselves, is not sledging.

    Sohar, for example, has just corrected a mistake C@ made. That wasn’t sledging.

    And I fact-checked myself and openly admitted my mistake. As you do. Or should.


  24. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 8:38 am
    Still trying to push the Anti Zelenskeyy line, poroti? Woodrow Wilson was one of the most right wing presidents of America and his think tank is founded by the biggest of Big Money:

    https://www.wilsoncenter.org/2020-donors

    They’d rather have Putin and the oligarchs, plus puppets in satellite states, any day. No wonder they put out a shit sheet on President Zelenskyy

    I thought W Wilson was the great saviour of Western countries during World War 1.
    I saw Hollywood movies where he is eulogised because he is a Democrat, albeit not Roosevelt Democrat. 🙂

  25. C@tmomma at 8:38 am
    What has the reality of politics in the Ukraine at the end of last year got to do with being ‘anti’ anything ? Perhaps you should read it before you go the headless chicken that you do so well .

  26. My sympathy BK. It is only slightly warmer than that here (Wattle Park).

    On William’s link last night about Liberal attempts to recycle politicians back into parliament:
    “ Andrew Constance potentially to replace Marise Payne in the Senate, according to Linda Silmaris’s The Sauce column, a.k.a. the only good thing about the Telegraph.”
    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/the-sauce-rumours-andrew-constance-is-eyeing-senate-seat/news-story/21ea75a3d59088acd03b36ea4151ff2e

    It strikes me that, given the election turned out close to as predicted by pollsters, that there was an extraordinary lack of post election planning by the Liberals. This applied both at party/faction level and at individual level. We hear lots of stories of former Ministers, and the PM, casting around for post politics jobs that would bring in a high income. Did none of them see this coming?

    The far right faction in NSW avoided preselections to keep their minions in safe seats. But even in Victoria the same pattern can be seen. They thought the gravy train would roll on forever.

  27. Yep it was me who called Aaron a troll, will own it.

    There is no nuance, or insight in his posting and looking for reactions. Calling him a troll is all the attention it deserves.


  28. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 8:41 am
    Sohar @ #716 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 8:34 am

    “Albert Einstein and Abraham Lincoln were born on the same day”
    Same date, surely, not the same day.

    You’re right. I just checked. Not even the same day. Einstein: 14/3/1879; Lincoln: 12/02/1809.

    Moral of the story: don’t believe everything you hear.

    Moral of the story: Don’t believe everything you read. 🙂

  29. poroti @ #739 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 9:00 am

    C@tmomma at 8:38 am
    What has the reality of politics in the Ukraine at the end of last year got to do with being ‘anti’ anything ? Perhaps you should read it before you go the headless chicken that you do so well .

    Rubbish. It’s old news that President Zelenskyy was going in the wrong direction then. My point is, why bring it up NOW as if it’s new news? He’s changed since then. As has been commonly acknowledged. It’s that part that you conveniently, it seems, left out, that bugged me.

  30. “The far right faction in NSW avoided preselections to keep their minions in safe seats.”

    It was the right, by and large, pressing for preselections to get their rubbish in the door.

  31. Mark Butler is about to announce that those over 70 will be able to access the anti-bacterial treatment for Covid.
    In the aged care facility I’m associated with we have been using the treatment and it has been VERY effective.

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