There are posts above on state politics in New South Wales and below on the slow motion demise of Boris Johnson. This one covers local electoral news relevant to (mostly) the federal tier:
• In an article for The Monthly by George Megalogenis, Shaun Ratcliff of the University of Sydney relates research suggesting home owners were nearly twice as likely to vote Coalition than non-home owners after controlling for income. However, there was a marked exception for those under 35, who were twice as likely to vote Labor and Greens than the Coalition, which played a major role in the latter’s disastrous showing in the big cities. The Coalition had just 16% support among renters, compared with 38% for Labor and 35% for the Greens. Home owners were only half as likely to vote for the Greens as renters, while distinctions among Labor were more modest. This was based on the Australian Cooperative Election Survey, conducted during the campaign from a sample of around 5800 by YouGov and various universities, which we will be hearing a lot more from in future.
• The Guardian reports Senator Andrew Bragg is pushing for changes to the New South Wales Liberal Party’s rules at its annual general meeting later this month to allow preselections to proceed without the involvement of the leader’s representative in the nomination review process. This seemingly arcane point lay at the centre of the long-running logjam in its preselection process before the federal election, when Scott Morrison’s centre right faction ally Alex Hawke persistently failed to show at meetings to move the process forward. Factional rivals said this was a deliberate effort to force the national executive to intervene to protect centre right incumbents from preselection defeats. Bragg’s proposal has been criticised by Hollie Hughes, Liberal Senator and centre right member, who instead blames reforms championed by Tony Abbott that required the concurrence of 90% of state executive members to certify factional deals that would have broken the deadlock.
• Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reports members of Labor’s Cabramatta branch have reacted to Kristina Keneally’s parachute malfunction in Fowler by calling for those who “white-anted” her to be disciplined. This included passage of a motion calling on the party administration to consider expelling Tu Le, whose own aspirations for the seat were thwarted by the Keneally manoeuvre. Local sources cited by Knott said members were “peeved by the presumption Le would have won a rank-and-file ballot given she had only moved to the electorate a year earlier herself and was not well-known in the area”.
• Poll Bludger regular Adrian Beaumont has a piece in The Conversation on the performance of the polls at the federal election, which I mean to get around covering myself in depth eventually.
• Matt Martino of the ABC drew upon my supposed expertise in a fact check on claims made by Barnaby Joyce about the federal election result. I rated him no pinocchios, but told him to watch it anyway.
• Late counting has shown the Liberals’ performance in Saturday’s Bragg state by-election in South Australia to have been a bit less bad than it appeared on the night. There has actually been a 2.8% swing in their favour on postals and pre-polls, compared with a 6.0% swing on the election day votes that were all we had to go on on Saturday. This leaves the Liberal margin at 5.5%, down from 8.2% at the March election (and 16.8% at the election before).
max says:
Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 8:19 am
“These sorts of articles about Albo’s “globe trotting” are instructive about how our MSM works. The Liberals issue talking points, Newscorp broadcasts them and the. rest of the MSM then gives them more oxygen, even if it’s to challenge them. Hey presto: suddenly manifestly partisan coalition lines are treated as subjects of serious political discourse and inserted into the national conversation.”
A succinct and accurate summary of a destructive situation. The demise of Murdoch might be a good small step.
It is kind of indisputable that Zelenskyy came to power as a somewhat Trump-like figure with a celebrity background and positioned as an outsider who could ‘drain the swamp’ equivalent. Not that Zelenskyy is anything like Trump personality-wise.
It’s also indisputable that he suffered a massive drop in popularity as he found that governing is actually hard and positive change is easy to talk about, very much less easy to make happen and not upset significant stakeholders etc.
At least in the initial period up until the invasion he didn’t look like he was going to be a successful or great leader.
The war changed everything, of course, and Zelenskyy has shown some great wartime leadership qualities that I doubt anyone saw in him, and bravo for that. Perhaps a better leadership comparison might be Churchill – generally not a very good administrator or facilitator of normal government, but an excellent motivator and leader in a crisis. A person who was tested and found the strength needed to get his people through a terrible time. And perhaps Zelenskyy will also be turfed by Ukrainian voters shortly after the war ceases.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 7:44 am
“IT’S RAINING AGAIN! ”
I feel enormous sympathy for those suffering now from extreme weather events caused by climate change creating our new, less stable, normal climate.
Yet I also feel immense frustration with the failure of decision makers in this country at all levels to prepare for this.
I read CSIRO reports on the likely impacts of climate change on a land of drought and flooding rains 30 years ago. They were detailed and convincing for anyone with a high school level of knowledge of physics and chemistry. They turned out to be accurate. CSIRO and NASA were probably the two organisations that first accurately modeled and predicted climate change.
They got largely ignored or put in the too hard basket, by governments and the private sector. Sadly that includes many senior figures in my own field (engineering) especially if they made money in mining or construction. It really makes me wonder what level of scientific literacy there is in our society.
Some of the miners funded climate “scepticism” campaigns since that were clearly fraudulent. If we are passed the era of prosecuting the powerful for their crimes, can we at least punitively tax them? They don’t usually do that either.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 8:27 am
“The best thing Elon Musk has done in a while is provide the Starlink satellites that Ukraine is using to get around the attempts by Russia to block their communications. Well done, that man.”
I have a friend who lives only 5km away and is a senior manager within the NBN. He can’t get the NBN so he uses Starlink and is delighted with it.
BK @ #750 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 9:08 am
Not being picky, but that’d be anti-virals wouldn’t it.
Cronus @ #754 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 9:12 am
We use Starlink. Genius.
It might be a slow day in terms of quantity, but the quality of the UK toons is great, especially the first 2.
UK Cartoons:
This was from July 6:
Dutton himself is actually on an overseas holiday! What an own goal from the opposition!
C@tmomma.
July 3rd – a day to celebrate both Jim Morrison & Brian Jones – both members of the 26 club.
I shiver to consider how a bloated, corpulent image that a 78 year old Jimbo would appear.
Glad to revel and remember Jimbo in his prime, along with some of the best music of the 60s, early 70s.
At least he went out in music’s greatest year – 1971.
on uk leadership maybi starmer will be new pmif elections but itthe new pm and dfence and foreign ministers in uk will effect how the submarine deal goes as some in uk labor do not suport itagree max when morrison traveled lobeying foor cormann to become oecd head a position most australians would not care abbout there was very litle negative media coverige
“Speers is back.”
Sorry to hear that.
Final comment on Zelensky. I agree he started as a lightweight populist candidate and lacked a detailed agenda. But I have sympathy for him on two fronts.
First he is not corrupt, which is genuine progress among Ukraine’s leaders.
Second he still has to deal with a lot of closet Russian sympathizers and corrupt individuals among the bureaucracy. They were never fully cleaned out at the end of the Soviet era and Yanukovych was still appointing more of them up to 2014.
Have a good day all.
Karen Middleton would have been a great choice to host 7.30.
Rex Douglas @ #762 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 9:20 am
The only one worthwhile in a pretty vacuous start to the programme.
Itza
I was thinking viral and typed bacterial.
Poor form!
1984 is music’s greatest year
BK @ #764 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 9:22 am
I should have let it go, it was obvious what you were thinking. My poor form.
My god, finally a clear communicator in the health portfolio!
Confessions @ #767 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 9:24 am
Who wants to get medicines out of warehouses before they expire!!
Over 50s with certain underlying conditions will also be able to access the anti-viral treatment for Covid.
How refreshing it has been to see so many of the new ministers communicating effectively, honestly and without the BS we had to previously had to endure.
ItzaDream @ #768 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 9:26 am
That was a stunning insight of ineptitude from the previous govt!
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 8:30 am
Speaking of super IQ humans, here’s a fun fact: Albert Einstein and Abraham Lincoln were born on the same day.
_____________________________________
Noting that you have already corrected this post I give you the actual fun fact:
It was Charles Darwin and Abraham Lincoln who were born on the same day in 1809!
The NSW CHO has advised that masks should be worn indoors.
I really think masks should be mandated in public transport, compliance notwithstanding.
Masks are mandated on public transport in NSW, but the problem is that it isn’t enforced.
Shame they’re not considering returning a mask mandate. I don’t care it’s been three years, people are dying and wearing a mask is an easy ask.
Confessions @ #775 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 9:32 am
Thanks, wasn’t aware.
BK says:
Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 9:28 am
“How refreshing it has been to see so many of the new ministers communicating effectively, honestly and without the BS we had to previously had to endure.”
+1. Just so reasonable.
When I flew to Melbourne a few weeks ago I was shocked at the number of passengers getting on the plane without a mask and needing the stewards to give them one!
Speers has the health minister on. An opportunity to get information and what does he do, waste time trying to get a gotcha. He really is pathetic.
It’s not mandating we need, it is a giant change of attitude.
I don’t think we have readily accessible data on how successful covid fines enforcement has been.
I’m sick of Speers!
I was out and about yesterday at my local strip shops. I was only one of a few wearing masks.
After two plus years of this pandemic, mandates should not be needed. It is common sense to wear a mask in public settings.
BK
I know what you mean!
shellbell @ #782 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 9:43 am
As an occasional public transport user, my observation is that when the mask mandate was enforced last year with Police on platforms, more people were wearing masks than presently when even the Rail Authority staff don’t bother pulling people up on it.
I’m sick of this journalist with the whiny voice and excuses for the coalition!
Confessions @ #787 Sunday, July 10th, 2022 – 9:50 am
… but the nail polish matches the shoes.
It’s the middle of winter and there is so much flu and cold viruses about. That alone should encourage people to wear masks.
Thanks for the earworm poroti. (mild sarcasm)
https://youtu.be/mn6TNWVjZP0
The measured melody creates a difficult tension with the images. 🙂
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson
Wilson was a segregationist and therefore a reactionary on racial matters, but in other respects he was a reforming liberal.
Confessions says:
Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 9:15 am
Dutton himself is actually on an overseas holiday! What an own goal from the opposition!
He’s been vacant for many years. Few would notice the difference if he were in the country or not.
The Vic Govt has “sick and carer’s pay for casual and contract workers”.
Details here: https://www.vic.gov.au/sick-pay-guarantee
After Patricia Karvelas effort last week that was pathetic. Get rid of Speers.
Buses and trains are mobile microbiological incubators, especially during peak periods. Wearing masks makes a lot of sense even if just to slow the spread of normal colds and flu. Before Covid, Chinese people around here often wore masks on trains.
”
Victoriasays:
Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 9:52 am
It’s the middle of winter and there is so much flu and cold viruses about. That alone should encourage people to wear masks.
”
I thought people learnt about Life and changed habits after 2 years of Pandemic. It appears they are behaving as if there is nothing to learn. No wonder they were so reluctant to get rid of Morrison. End the end ALP had to co-opt Teal voters to get rid of him
BKsays:
Sunday, July 10, 2022 at 9:22 am
I’m glad that’s been cleared up.
It initially sounded like your facility was going Trumpy. 🙂
Thanks BK.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jul/10/labor-aims-to-legislate-spending-caps-and-truth-in-advertising-says-don-farrell
I’m so pleased my hobby horse of one vote/one value, regardless of jurisdiction, is going to be discussed.
It’s the middle of winter and there is so much flu and cold viruses about. That alone should encourage people to wear masks ???
When will the Australian TGA approve Starpharma’s Viraleze anti Virus Nasal spray, effective against
Influenza type A ‘AND” B, and all known variants of Covid 19 !!!!!
Do some Research people !
BK
My mum’s facility has had another small outbreak of covid and the anti viral meds has been part of their tool box for a while.
We have been told that once a resident is diagnosed with covid, they immediately administer this medication to them
It has made a very big material difference to their recovery.