Essential Research: Albanese approval and COVID management (open thread)

Albanese down a little off a post-election high, plus some detail from a further poll conducted immediately after the federal election.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll includes its monthly read on prime ministerial approval, but still nothing on voting intention or opinion of the Opposition Leader. Anthony Albanese maintains most but not all of his post-election bounce, his approval down three to 56% and disapproval up six to 24%.

The pollster’s now regular fortnighly question on national direction is effectively unchanged at 47% for right and 28% for wrong. Further questions relate to COVID-19, which find 55% believe we “need to get on with life and treat Covid like another form of flu”, but that 60% support the return of mask wearing in some settings 53% support the government rolling out of a fourth shot (which it began doing during the survey period).

About half the respondents felt Australia had handled the pandemic better than the United States, the United Kingdom and China, with between 16% and 22% opting for worse, while the result for New Zealand was broadly neutral. The poll was conducted Thursday to Monday from a sample of 1097.

Also out earlier this week was a brief release from the Australia Institute which reported that a poll it conducted on the night of the May 21 federal election found the Coalition had 37% support among men and 30% support among women, which became 28% to 38% when a further survey was conducted the following month. Given a list of 20 options to choose from as Coalition weaknesses, 67% tagged “the state of aged care” and 66% “the treatment of women in politics”.

UPDATE: The Australia Institute has now posted more detail from its polls. As well as a lot more detail on what respondents regarded as Coalition strengths and weaknesses going into the election, it has a set of voting intention numbers dating from June 14: Labor 34%, Coalition 31%, Greens 12%, One Nation 4%, United Australia Party 4%, independents and others 9% and not sure 7%. The first phase of the poll was conducted from May 21 to 25 from a sample of 1424, and the second was conducted “in June” from a sample of 1001.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,030 comments on “Essential Research: Albanese approval and COVID management (open thread)”

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  1. Inflation is the change in prices and because of that wages growth does push up inflation.

    No one is blaming workers for that fact.

  2. ItzaDream @ #1786 Monday, July 18th, 2022 – 3:43 pm

    Cud Chewer @ #1774 Monday, July 18th, 2022 – 2:35 pm

    rhwombat

    Itsa is pushing things to twist what as I said as a comment on an individual. Its an organisational failure and a serious one. Has Itsa’s friend had a part in bad decisions making? That’s not my concern.

    Hey, cut out the bull shit. I’m not twisting anything. I made a pretty clear response to an accusation that “ATAGI are fuckwits” with a statement that I know a member of ATAGI and she’s not a fuckwit.

    This is what you posted:

    The quote was “having a vaccination now will not prevent you from getting an updated vaccine later”.. or something similar. The problem is that that’s the US. Here we have ATAGI and the reason why I commented on ATAGI is they are fuckwits and probably will impose a needless delay on people being able to get the variant specific booster.

    NB the reason why I commented on ATAGI is they are fuckwits

    This is what (and only what) I posted:

    I know a member of ATAGI and she is not a fuckwit

    I’m out.

    So am I.

  3. Mexb: “Inflation is the change in prices and because of that wages growth does push up inflation.. No one is blaming workers for that fact.”

    Complete and utter BS. That’s EXACTLY the justification that the liberals and the business lobbies used to attack the minimum wage increase that the ALP took to the election.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-pm-s-wages-call-could-cost-him-dearly-20220512-p5akwa.html

    “The Ai Group warns that “an excessive minimum wage increase would fuel inflation and lead to higher interest rates . . . than would otherwise be the case”. It would be detrimental to economic growth and job creation.”

  4. Pi at 4:42 pm
    Indeed,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

    The S&P 500’s profit margin had never before hit 11%, but it surpassed 12% in 2021 and is expected to reach 13% in 2022,

    Corporate profits in Australia surged by 10.2% qoq on in Q1 of 2022,

    Corporate profit is at a level well beyond what we have ever seen, and it’s expected to keep growing

    Company gross operating profits rose 10.2% seasonally adjusted;

    Meanwhile those greedy bloody workers

    — Wages grew by 2.4% over the year to March quarter 2022

  5. Just checking in and struggling to keep up with the stream of thought from the c@tmomma. Enemies at the gate. Enemies everywhere. Chinese are coming. America is great. Salute the flag. Hand on heart singing oh say can you see.

    But, on what has been a very eventful day of posting by the c@t, I think this was my favourite:

    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, July 18, 2022 at 12:13 pm
    The IMF is a tool of global capitalism. Colour me shocked.

    But when China plays capitalist and capitalism it is bad. Debt trap diplomacy or trade sanctions. Or whatever suits. I am not sure c@t actually believes her own rhetoric. Well, I would like to think that. It is scary to think that there are branchies about waiting for general business to pass a motion like some of the stuff which gets spewed here by c@t. Its a little wonder why membership participation is down.

    As Andrew_Earlwood has pointed talk about Jingoism. But, unlike Teddy, I am not sure that C@t would be prepared to mount the horse and charge. Just let others do it.

  6. Pi at 5:02 pm
    Not that it matters, fanbois of the dismal science will still say the ‘cure’ is to make the peasants poorer.

  7. Mexb: “Its a fact that wage growth adds to inflation.”

    It’s a fact that wage growth is lower than it has been in 50 years, and inflation is at 50 year highs

  8. Pi says:
    Monday, July 18, 2022 at 5:06 pm

    Mexb: “Its a fact that wage growth adds to inflation.”

    It’s a fact that wage growth is lower than inflation, and inflation is at 50 year highs
    ——————–
    Both are facts.

  9. Good comment earlier someone posted about Burke. It is amazing how the narrative is now shifting to the need to reign in wages. Encourage the strikes. Encourage the wage claims I say. The stats posted and commented on by Poroti above are shocking.

    I wonder if there is anything that can be done to revive Unions in this country outside the public sectors (and outside the SDA coverage which seems to be holding up).

  10. William Bowe says:
    Monday, July 18, 2022 at 3:25 pm

    Do you really have to be such a prick?
    _______
    In retrospect I shouldn’t have said anything to BW and instead joined the pile on P1. I wouldn’t have attracted any criticism at all.

  11. Itsa

    You can twist it all you like. I’m talking about ATAGI collectively and their decisions. They’re not immune to criticism and if you think that reflects badly on someone you know, then so be it. Of course, since you have this connection, you’re welcome to ask her a few pertinent questions on my behalf.

  12. Mexb: “Both are facts.”

    But YOU are the person who wants wages to remain low to combat inflation that wasn’t caused by the increase in wages. Inflation is at 50 year highs, and it ain’t because of wage increases. FACT.

    So tell me genius, how you’re going to get inflation down without controlling wages. Because wages didn’t cause this problem.

  13. Pi says:
    Monday, July 18, 2022 at 5:10 pm

    Mexb: “Both are facts.”

    But YOU are the person who wants wages to remain low to combat inflation that wasn’t caused by the increase in wages. Inflation is at 50 year highs, and it ain’t because of wage increases. FACT.
    ————————————
    You are now making it up because i never said wage growth is bad.

  14. Running out of fuel on my way to work, decided to fill up in Albury.

    On the way through, noticed that E10 was $1.87 in Wodonga.

    Got to Albury, and the ‘cheap’ service station had it at $2.07.

    Went back to Wodonga.

  15. Mexb: “You are now making it up because i never said wage growth is bad.”

    But wage increases are the only thing you’re talking about when YOU talk about the causes of inflation. I’ll believe that you’re not linking the two, when you start talking about solutions to inflation WITHOUT discussing wages.

    Mexb: “Tell the Russians to send their troops home.”

    The invasion of Ukraine hasn’t hurt corporate profits, now have they Mexb?

  16. Pi says:
    Monday, July 18, 2022 at 5:14 pm

    Mexb: “You are now making it up because i never said wage growth is bad.”

    But wage increases are the only thing you’re talking about when YOU talk about the causes of inflation. I’ll believe that you’re not linking the two, when you start talking about inflation WITHOUT discussing wages.
    ——————–
    Put my comment in context because it was a response to other comments about wages and inflation.

  17. Pi says:
    Monday, July 18, 2022 at 5:15 pm

    Mexb: “Tell the Russians to send their troops home.”

    The invasion of Ukraine hasn’t hurt corporate profits, now have Mexb?
    —————————-
    Its driving up inflation.

  18. Mexb: “my comment in context ”

    That’s exactly what I’ve done.

    Mexb: “Its driving up inflation.”

    I thought you said it was Russia?

  19. Mavis

    “ The allegations made against his client were “based on rumour, hearsay and contradictory accounts” from former Special Air Service colleagues who were either “jealous” or “obsessed”, he said.’]”

    Who knew the SAS was full of so many jealous and obsessed individuals? They were of course also often direct witnesses, colleagues usually bound by a brotherhood of secrecy supposedly.

  20. I’m looking forward to this.

    https://twitter.com/tanya_plibersek/status/1548929614302838784

    Tanya Plibersek
    @tanya_plibersek
    Tomorrow when I release the State of the Environment report, there will be a lot of serious conversations about the challenges facing our environment.

    But there’s one part of the story I don’t want to get lost in the noise.

    For the first time, 13 First Nations authors have contributed throughout the State of the Environment report.

  21. Mexb: “You took it as a random comment then spun it into me blaming wages for inflation.”

    Don’t blame me because you telegraph your punches. Down.

    Mexb: “Its the Russians because Russia and Ukraine are major commodity producers.”

    No affecting corporate profits though, is it? So tell me again why wage growth is stagnant?

    Mexb: ” i never said wage growth is bad.”

    Is inflation bad? Yes/No.

  22. Pi
    Higher inflation will affect corporate profits.

    Wage growth has been slow because unemployment has been high.

  23. poroti says:
    Monday, July 18, 2022 at 5:02 pm
    Pi at 4:42 pm
    Indeed,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

    “The S&P 500’s profit margin had never before hit 11%, but it surpassed 12% in 2021 and is expected to reach 13% in 2022,
    Corporate profits in Australia surged by 10.2% qoq on in Q1 of 2022,
    Corporate profit is at a level well beyond what we have ever seen, and it’s expected to keep growing
    Company gross operating profits rose 10.2% seasonally adjusted;
    Meanwhile those greedy bloody workers

    — Wages grew by 2.4% over the year to March quarter 2022”

    Funny how the Murdochracy and even the AFR fail to really notice these differences. They barely get a mention farless any analysis.

  24. Mexb: “Higher inflation will affect corporate profits.”

    Corporate profits have led to higher inflation, not the other way around.

    Mexb: “Wage growth has been slow because unemployment has been high.”

    Unemployment is at record lows.

    Mexb: ” becomes a problem when it accelerates.”

    Like now. At a time of record low wages growth.

  25. Mexb: “That is now but wasn’t the case for most of the last decade.”

    When there was no inflation problem?

    Unemployment has been going down pretty consistently for 30 years.

    How about you sit down with a piece of paper and a pen and work how your narrative works. Because it isn’t working.

  26. wranslide says:
    Monday, July 18, 2022 at 5:08 pm
    “Good comment earlier someone posted about Burke. It is amazing how the narrative is now shifting to the need to reign in wages. Encourage the strikes. Encourage the wage claims I say. The stats posted and commented on by Poroti above are shocking.”

    Shouldn’t be terribly difficult reigning in wages that have barely moved in a decade. Fairness and decency shouldn’t be too much to ask of employers and corporations.

  27. Mexb: “Its you jumping all over the place and inflation spent the last decade under the RBA’s target.”

    YOU are the one that just told the outright lie that unemployment has been high for the past decade flash.

  28. Cronus

    Funny how the Murdochracy and even the AFR fail to really notice these differences. They barely get a mention farless any analysis.

    They do not have the time. Too busy railing against the evils of a pay increase for the greedy sods on the minimum wage .

  29. Mexb: “That chart proves my point because the unemployment rate was higher when inflation was lower.”

    It was YOU who said that wage growth is low because unemployment was so high.

    Mexb: “Wage growth has been slow because unemployment has been high.”

    I showed THAT graph to show you were making shit up. We are at record low wages growth and record inflation. Stop making shit up to suit a narrative that you arrived at because you want to believe it’s true.

  30. Pi says:
    Monday, July 18, 2022 at 5:32 pm

    Mexb: “Its you jumping all over the place and inflation spent the last decade under the RBA’s target.”

    YOU are the one that just told the outright lie that unemployment has been high for the past decade flash.
    ————————–
    LOL nup when Rudd became PM the unemployment rate was under 5 and it spent most of the decade above 5 and has only gone back below 5 because of closed borders.

  31. poroti

    Don’t you realise that the poor sods on the minimum wage deserve to be there? After all, they clearly haven’t tried hard enough.

  32. poroti says:
    Monday, July 18, 2022 at 5:40 pm

    Russia and Ukraine at war to blame eh, they started early last year then ?
    ————————–
    There was inflation before that but the Russians invasion added to it.

  33. Cronus

    As I said to an American gun-toting friend..

    “If only there were more people like you.. then there would be less people like you..

  34. Poroti: “Russia and Ukraine at war to blame eh, they started early last year then ?”

    A very salient point Poroti. Therefore, it will be completely ignored by the people who want to link any increase to wages to imminent disastrous inflation… that’s already been caused by everything except the increase in wages.

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