Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)

Labor and Anthony Albanese ride high in the first Newspoll since the federal election.

The Australian has published the first Newspoll since the federal election, showing Labor opening up a commanding 56-44 lead, compared with a two-party result of 52.1-47.9 at the election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (compared with 32.6% at the election), Coalition 33% (35.7%), Greens 12% (12.2%), One Nation 6% (5.0%) and United Australia Party 2% (4.1%).

Anthony Albanese’s approval rating has shot from 41% before the election to 61%, while his disapproval rating has fallen from 46% to 26%. The former exceeds honeymoon approval ratings recorded by Tony Abbott (47%), Kevin Rudd (59%) and John Howard (45%) upon Newspoll’s return after the three previous changes of government. The net result of plus 35% is the strongest since the early days of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership in November 2015, and previously by Kevin Rudd in October 2009.

Dutton’s opening numbers are 37% approval and 41% disapproval, and he trails Albanese 59-25 as preferred prime minister, the widest gap in Newspoll since the early days of Rudd’s prime ministership in 2008. Debut results for past opposition leaders were 35% approval and 40% disapproval for Anthony Albanese in 2019, 32% and 24% for Bill Shorten in 2013, 40% and 35% for Tony Abbott in 2010, 50% and 25% for Malcolm Turnbull in 2008, 36% and 19% for Brendan Nelson in 2008 and 41% and 10% for Kevin Rudd in 2006. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1508.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Granny Anny @ #445 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 5:32 pm

    The right wing religious loons that make up the WA Liberals have decided their position on the voice. Headline from the WEST, content behind the paywall;

    WA Liberal Party votes to call on Federal Opposition to oppose Indigenous Voice to Parliament

    Bravo, Lidia and Jacinta and Ken! (I presume Ken Wyatt is still a member of the WA Liberal Party?). You’ve given the bigots a leg to stand on in opposition to the Voice to Parliament.

  2. “That doesn’t make it right.”

    That a majority have less ambitious goals, reflects more on their assessment of the racism in Australia that a fair and just outcome.

    Could be the majority has picked the racism we have seen today correctly.

    Certainly doesn’t make the racists any less shit.

  3. Astrobleme @ #450 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 5:36 pm

    South

    “We’re talking about a dumb stunt that will only divide people rather than bring them together.”
    Indeed, some of you are, but that’s because you’re studiously avoiding talking about the substance.

    That you would rather criticise someone for their apparent bad behaviour than look at why and what they are doing is rather telling.

    Stop the oppressed speaking out… Preserve the authority of the existing power… Pretty lame stuff

    Lidia’s happy to go along with it for 250 large a year.

  4. “It is disrespecting the differing views of all the other Indigenous MPs in federal parliament, who don’t subscribe to ‘Blak Power Sovereign Citizen’ Lidia’s view.”

    This is another trick people use to suppress dissent. Claim that it means that the dissenter is disrepecting other minorities…

    It’s like a Bingo card of responses.

    Anything, but consider what she was saying

  5. “ Outspoken. Blak. Woman. Green.

    I think I see the problem.”

    ____

    P1 has the gaslights on full burn.

    You can’t see shit.

    Let me count the ways that Thorpe managed to lose the plot and fail to bring even one person into the tent today:

    * Calling her Maj a coloniser, when her reign has been singularly marked by decolonisation.

    * Soverign citizen shit. That’s right out there with Malcolm Roberts, Qanon and anti-vaxxer nut jobs

    * the juvenile “hairs” pronunciation of heirs.

    What is the point of all of this? To advocate, inform, challenge? Unlikely. This simply has entrenched views & become its own Kultcha Wars hot button of irrelevance.

    I know many outspoken – black – women – radicals & have worked with them, and observed them achieve real change over the past 30 years. Thorpe is not one of those. She’s a ratbag doing the bidding of the reactionary right by turning people off. Of course, this isn’t actually a flaw in the Greens MO. It’s a feature of Marxist electoral theory:

    1. create massive polarisation (tick);
    2.Ensure the the centre fails (a work in progress, and one which she will no doubt tag team with the likes of Jacinta Price); then
    3. As civic society collapses, swoop in with the glorious Marxist revolution we all wanted, even though we never knew it at the time.

  6. “Bravo, Lidia and Jacinta and Ken! (I presume Ken Wyatt is still a member of the WA Liberal Party?). You’ve given the bigots a leg to stand on in opposition to the Voice to Parliament.”

    Biggots will be biggots, it is entirely wrong and unhelpful to attempt to appease them. They must be fought.

  7. Astrobleme ,
    My wife is Irish, I know all about the bastardy of the British.

    When I joined the army and did my duty with honor by firstly not lying when taking an oath of service. I’m not sure that Lidia can same the same thing, and that should fundamentally worry people. Does she have honest intentions of serving Australia or just herself.

    She seems like an pretty egocentric character.

  8. Correction to earlier post. I DO have a problem with what Thorpe has done. Look at what has become of PollBludger! I may instantaneously combust.

    I want to know what Fran thinks.

  9. WeWantPaul @ #452 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 5:38 pm

    “That doesn’t make it right.”

    That a majority have less ambitious goals, reflects more on their assessment of the racism in Australia that a fair and just outcome.

    Could be the majority has picked the racism we have seen today correctly.

    Certainly doesn’t make the racists any less shit.

    Do you actually have any Indigenous close friends, WeWantPaul? If so, have you spoken to them about The Uluru Voice From the Heart? Do you know what their position is? I have.

    Or are you just another privileged White guy who thinks you know what they want because one Indigenous MP from The Greens and one from the CLP (and how about that, WeWantPaul on the side of the Colonisers party with Jacinta) have a point of view that you can use to rub well-meaning people’s noses in their pov, and the pov of the majority of Indigenous Australians as represented by the numbers that stayed to sign the Uluru Statement From the Heart and didn’t walk out, I might add, which differs from THE most extreme pov of the issue?

    I’m happy you’re happy with that because it places you where shallow-thinking reactionaries like you and Lidia Thorpe like to be. Being perpetually-outraged. And destructive. At least Lidia Thorpe is honest about that.

  10. Checked in after a day’s break from this site to find a variation of the Gillard treatment being shovelled out at a young woman finding her voice.

    Interesting.

  11. About ‘Merica but we get fed the same shite about inflation by the same sort of people.
    ……………………………………………………………….
    ROBERT REICH

    July 29, 2022
    The truth about inflation is getting covered up by countless myths spewed by corporations and their political lackeys.

    Debunking Four Myths About Inflation
    Higher prices are not being driven by wage increases. They were not driven by federal assistance to people during the pandemic. And Democrats aren’t to blame.

    Here are the facts:

    Fact #1: Inflation is not being driven by wage increases

    Although wages have been rising, they’ve been rising more SLOWLY than prices. Hourly wages grew by 5 percent in the past year—but prices rose 8.6 percent. This means, when you adjust for inflation, workers actually got a 3.5 percent pay cut over the past year.
    https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022/07/29/debunking-four-myths-about-inflation

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:38 pm

    Lidia’s happy to go along with it for 250 large a year.
    ___________
    Next you will be calling her an Elite. One Nation branch meeting indeed.

  13. Reading that some Senator has called HM a “coloniser”, I’m reminded of Pierre Trudeau’s response to being described as an “asshole” by Richard Nixon: “I’ve been called worse things by better people”.

  14. Astrobleme @ #454 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 5:41 pm

    “It is disrespecting the differing views of all the other Indigenous MPs in federal parliament, who don’t subscribe to ‘Blak Power Sovereign Citizen’ Lidia’s view.”

    This is another trick people use to suppress dissent. Claim that it means that the dissenter is disrepecting other minorities…

    It’s like a Bingo card of responses.

    Anything, but consider what she was saying

    I know exactly what Lidia Thorpe is saying. Have you even read the Walkout Statement in full? I’ll post it again if you are unfamiliar with her position. She has a right to take that position. But she’s a hypocrite. You do realise that, don’t you?

  15. nath @ #462 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 5:50 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:38 pm

    Lidia’s happy to go along with it for 250 large a year.
    ___________
    Next you will be calling her an Elite. One Nation branch meeting indeed.

    That’s not the rational conclusion to draw from pointing that particular thing out, nath. The point I was making must have gone right over your head. But you do you, nath, and keep coming out with your irrelevant, sarky one-liners. 🙂

  16. Well at least you can now talk about the substance and how wrong she is.
    You’re certainly entitled to do that.

    I have no interest in that. But I will defend her right to speak out.

  17. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:38 pm

    Lidia’s happy to go along with it for 250 large a year.
    __________
    reminds me of when the Australian newspaper used to publish the salaries of highly paid ATSIC executives. You know, just to inform the public, not in any way to get people riled up about how much money was going to Indigenous people.

  18. Astrobleme says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:18 pm
    Cronus

    “She’s doing what she can. I know you want her to just shut up and behave, but that has led nowhere for a long time. Civil Disobedience is important. It’s not trivial. And if your response is ‘behave in the way we demand’ then you’re the target audience and she wants you to question why you feel that way.”

    Your offensive statement notwithstanding, you have chosen to misrepresent the argument, a sign you have lost the intellectual debate. You’ll note that at no time did I say or imply ‘behave in the way we demand’, indeed, I have referenced Thorpe’s current Indigenous MP colleagues and forebears as examples of behaviour.

    You’ll note too from my comments that I unreservedly support Thorpe’s cause and also her right to civil disobedience (where necessary, this is not such a situation). I take umbrage only with her choice of situations. Thus your claim that I just want her to ‘shut up’ is at best erroneous and at worst, knowingly false.

    Perhaps in light of the facts you might wish to reconsider your comments, bereft of fact and heavy on emotion as they stand.

  19. nath @ #467 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 5:57 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:38 pm

    Lidia’s happy to go along with it for 250 large a year.
    __________
    reminds me of when the Australian newspaper used to publish the salaries of highly paid ATSIC executives. You know, just to inform the public, not in any way to get people riled up about how much money was going to Indigenous people.

    Another shallow, pointless point that absolutely avoids addressing the substance of the point I was making about taking that money. Even $1 of it. But you do you, nath.

  20. Jan 6says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:10 pm

    The greens should tell thorpe to retire she seems to not be helfpful to them asshe will alianate thegreens push to be mainstream

    This depends. Maybe the Greens dont want to be mainstream. Maybe they want the mainstream to move to their policy agenda. If so, how do they best achieve that? Or maybe they just want to be a medium sized activist party. Or, more likely, they are trying to be many things.

    I dont think this hurts their brand – it does depend a little on how Bandt and the others manage it. SHY hasnt tweeted. Leaving it to Beaver seems wise.

    I agree, it doesn’t hurt their brand, but it also doesn’t do much to attract new people to it.

    The lack of response from others in the Party suggests that they may have been unaware of what she was planning.

  21. Anyhoo, I’m off to watch the Maiden Speech of a Proud Wiradjuri Man, our new Member for Robertson, Dr Gordon Reid.

  22. “I think it was to trigger people like you.

    Mission Accomplished.”

    Yeah, and I would have predicted the response entirely wrong. I would have thought agree or disagree with her personal stance, the response would have been a fairly muted ‘good on her’.

    It is characterising the response that is dead easy.

  23. Astrobleme, your commitment to “a conversation” is commendable if you have no interest in the substance…

    Although given this has been a topic of conversation here for some time, I don’t think anyone needed these events to feel entitled to post.

    And who said Senator Thorpe didn’t have a right to speak out?

  24. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:33 pm

    “I notice that Astrobleme continues to avoid the impact of Thorpe’s behaviour on the chances of a Voice getting up.”

    Why would it affect them?’
    —————————–
    Jesus. I think you might even be serious. Like you were serious when you were explaining that tanks and heavy artillery were useless in Putin’s War.

    1. If Indigenous people like Thorpe and Price can’t agree with other Indigenous people on even the most basic elements of the Statement from the Heart, why should white people agree with any of them? Better just to be safe and vote ‘No’. Easy to sell. Easy to buy.

    2. Most non-Indigenous people believe they live in a legitimate society with a legitimate society. Why not just alienate them as the first step by telling them they, their government and their values systems are illegitimate? What do you expect them to do? Pack up and leave? FFS! (And NO, your facile assumption that they MUST ALL be QANON type racists won’t wash.) Why not just alienate the lot of them? While you are at it, get your idiot boss, Bandt, to tell them that the flag under which hundreds of thousands of them and of their relations fought and died is just a symbol of evil. Fucking politically dumb as shit when you are trying to get a high-risk referendum up. Not that you would notice, hey champion of freedom?

    3. Thorpe and Price are providing endless ammunition for the No team. That is their choice. But it IS a choice and that choice has consequences. Not just for Thorpe and Price. But for every single Indigenous person and non-Indigenous – most of whom agree with neither of Thorpe and Price. They have the right to speak out, but!

    4. QE2 is very popular. She is far more popular than, say, Bandt or even, gasp, Thorpe. So why not go out of your way to insult her? Who cares? Right? No effect? Right! You guys need badly to get out of your bubble. Were you seriously thinking this is going to help all those monarchists to vote ‘Yes’ to giving people just like Thorpe a Voice? You must be bloody kidding!

    I do feel sorry for the majority of Indigenous people and their supporters who have to try to get the Statement of the Heart up while being undermined by the likes of Jacinta Price and Lidia Thorpe white-anting their efforts.

    As noted above, Bandt needs to reflect on what he is about. He sort of said he supported the Statement of the Heart – just not the Statement of the Heart supported by Indigenous people! Bullshit sophistry.

    Come to that I feel sorry for all Australians in coming generations.

    It is starting to look like a reprise of the Greens last time Labor was in government, is it not?

    Fuck around, fuck things up, and then spend another decade explaining that only the Greens are pure and that all the rest are ‘same old same old’. This time your chosen victims are not climate victims. This time your chosen victims are Indigenous people.

    All for their own good, of course. Because they are oppressed and only the Greens can Save the Reef and Save the Oppressed Indigenous Peoples of Australia.

    You guys are disgusting.

  25. A referendum to amend the oaths/affirmation in schedule 2 to the Constitution so as to include an allegiance to Australia would be worth a run.

  26. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:29 pm
    “And isn’t it also rather condescending of us Whites to be telling others that the only valid way for a Blak to behave in parliament is for them to behave like Lidia Thorpe? Because that is the undertone of the conversation. They approve of the way Thorpe behaved but by their comparison those other Indigenous MPs are less in their opinion because they don’t meet the gold standard of Indigenous revolt against the system that Lydia does. Ipso facto is the subtext that the other Indigenous MPs have acquiesced to the White Man and his institutions.”

    Again I agree. I turned my own argument on myself as a check. I asked myself whether my statements stood in the event that Thorpe was a Caucasian woman and given my regular comments about Pauline Hanson I can say my opinion changes not one iota. I then asked myself whether my comments might be considered racist and whether that was dependent upon whether I was Caucasian or Indigenous but again, given the behaviour of previous male indigenous MPs my answer was again unchanged.

    Given my continued strong support of The Voice (regardless of Thorpe’s actions), and my preference for a republic, I’m satisfied that I’m probably neither racist, mysoginistic nor imperialist. All good.

  27. south says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:18 pm
    Sir Henry Parkes,
    WTF!

    By taking the oath she wasn’t forced. She had a choice, she has agency here. She IS bound by it because she took it, and if she took it in bad faith that’s actually a lot worse.

    I don’t think she’s very self reflective because this isn’t people tut tut-ing her over something trivial, it’s in the constitution. The thing that enables all laws in this country. So if she’s going to optionally opt out of laws then why not just opt out of other laws she doesn’t like.

    Seems like she was once a bankruptcy, did she opt out of paying her bills because she didn’t want to???
    ___________________________________________________________
    Love her or loathe her, Lidia Thorpe is an elected representative of the people. However, our anachronistic constitution requires her to swear allegiance to some distant monarch before she can carry out her duties.
    Ergo, Thorpe was forced to take the oath. You seem to be suggesting that unless someone holds a gun to your head, you are not being coerced.
    What should Lidia Thorpe have done? Follow the fruitless path of those Sinn Fein MPs who can’t take their seats in the British parliament because they refuse to swear allegiance to the monarchy?

  28. Shellbellsays:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 6:12 pm

    A referendum to amend the oaths/affirmation in schedule 2 to the Constitution so as to include an allegiance to Australia would be worth a run.

    It would certainly be something people could more honestly take.

  29. By taking the oath she wasn’t forced. She had a choice, she has agency here. She IS bound by it because she took it, and if she took it in bad faith that’s actually a lot worse.
    ________
    Of course all the Republicans who took the oath in bad faith get a pass because…..well just because.

  30. Rex Douglas says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:33 pm
    “I see the defenders of the establishment are effectively threatening Senator Thorpe to behave to the their standards or constitutional reform for the Indigenous may be denied to them.”

    What is wrong with current and passed indigenous MPs (mostly wonderful ambassadors) that they have behaved with the decorum befitting their positions as MPs, we’re/are they just lickspittles? Who exactly has threatened Thorpe, with what and by what means?

  31. nathsays:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 6:12 pm

    Caption Contest

    Hawke: You still believe in God?
    Morrison: Yes, do you?

    I think you got it the wrong way round.

    Morrison: You still believe in God?
    Hawke: Yes, of course.
    Morrison: Thank you for your loyalty.

  32. Astrobleme says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:40 pm
    “a childish stunt by an attention seeking backbencher.”

    “Well, this is exactly what people say about most civil disobedience.
    If only the disenfranchised would shut up, right?”

    I’m not sure Thorpe is disenfranchised as a member of parliament, she now wields important power. Her fellow indigenous though, many of whom are certainly disenfranchised, are relying on her, through the most useful and effective means of that authority to help further their cause. I wonder if today’s antics were the best method of diminishing their disenfranchisement?

    You mentioned earlier that you thought people like myself were her target audience (despite my support for The Voice and Constitutional change). I always believed it was important to carefully identify one’s audience and target them in a manner that would persuade them to my cause. I’m not certain today’s effort achieved that. If she is targeting the undecided, those who might be dissuaded by shenanigans, she might consider the advice of current indigenous MPs experienced in the art of persuasion.

  33. Sir Henry Parkes, Nath,
    Republicans worked inside the system to change it. The queen has not stopped countries leaving the commonwealth. Until the laws change you have don’t have to like the laws, but you should show them respect.

    If you don’t respect them, then don’t expect people to respect you or your causes.

    Read Boerwars comments. Lidia is a joke.

  34. Player One says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:41 pm
    Mexicanbeemer @ #397 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 4:38 pm

    “What Lidia did was not civil disobedience but a childish stunt by an attention seeking backbencher.
    Sure. But it worked, didn’t it? What are we all talking about now? “

    She had our support before opening her mouth and acting imprudently. The question is are we (the broader community) talking about the issue in positive terms that will maximise support for the cause or talking about the individual whose actions risk undermining it?

  35. South,
    “She seems like an pretty egocentric character.”
    I’ve observed a few over the years possibly able to fit into this category.
    Lidia has set out to achieve whatever and “time will tell” a story.
    The white blokes in the sprocket photo have very little qualms when not following the script!

  36. Boerwar says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:01 pm
    “I notice that Astrobleme continues to avoid the impact of Thorpe’s behaviour on the chances of a Voice getting up.
    If I were a Greens I would be busy deflecting from that as well.”

    And deflecting they are, it’s another form of defending the indefensible instead of saying there was a better way Thorpe could’ve made her point.

  37. Interesting discussion on Lidia Thorpe’s contribution today.

    For me, it only strengthens the need for an indigenous Voice. Vote Yes, vote often.

    Let a thousand flowers bloom… Jacinta Price, Warren Mundine, Noel Pearson and everyone of our Aboriginal heritage citizens can say WTF they want.

  38. I had assumed the affirmation option was some funky addition for heathens but it has been there from day dot.

    “Background
    By the time of Federation all colonial legislatures had enacted:

    … legislation to allow any person to make an affirmation rather than take an oath of allegiance or of office, though some moved more slowly than others.

    There are a number of reasons why the Constitution included an affirmation as an alternative to the oath for members of the federal parliament. Members of the Constitutional Conventions of the 1890s used the Constitution of the United States as one of their models, and therefore took into account that Constitution’s provisions on the oaths and affirmations taken by the President and others appointed or elected to public office.

    Another, and perhaps stronger reason, is that:

    The option of taking an affirmation was imported to Australia out of English law, where it has existed since the Act of Toleration of 1689. The 1689 provision formalised what was in any case becoming common practice in at least some areas. However, it was introduced out of respect for the consciences not of atheists, but of Quakers …

    It was not until 1888 that English law unequivocally extended the same choice to atheists … By Federation, the affirmation’s applicability to atheists had gained a measure of acceptance.[4]

    During the Constitutional Conventions there was very little discussion of proposed section 42, requiring the making of an oath or affirmation, or the wording of the oath and affirmation in the schedule to the Constitution. Both were accepted without a formal vote. There was certainly no discussion about whether or not to include an affirmation. Political scientist and academic Dr Marion Maddox notes that:

    … the Australasian Conventions simply assum[ed] their [oath and affirmation] equal legitimacy without debate.”

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1314/OathsAffirmations

  39. Player Onesays:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 5:02 pm
    Outspoken. Blak. Woman. Green.

    I think I see the problem.
    ====================================
    Rude, Arrogant, Entitled.
    Zero credibility and zero respect outside her own inner circle.
    I think I see the problem.

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