Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)

Labor and Anthony Albanese ride high in the first Newspoll since the federal election.

The Australian has published the first Newspoll since the federal election, showing Labor opening up a commanding 56-44 lead, compared with a two-party result of 52.1-47.9 at the election. The primary votes are Labor 37% (compared with 32.6% at the election), Coalition 33% (35.7%), Greens 12% (12.2%), One Nation 6% (5.0%) and United Australia Party 2% (4.1%).

Anthony Albanese’s approval rating has shot from 41% before the election to 61%, while his disapproval rating has fallen from 46% to 26%. The former exceeds honeymoon approval ratings recorded by Tony Abbott (47%), Kevin Rudd (59%) and John Howard (45%) upon Newspoll’s return after the three previous changes of government. The net result of plus 35% is the strongest since the early days of Malcolm Turnbull’s prime ministership in November 2015, and previously by Kevin Rudd in October 2009.

Dutton’s opening numbers are 37% approval and 41% disapproval, and he trails Albanese 59-25 as preferred prime minister, the widest gap in Newspoll since the early days of Rudd’s prime ministership in 2008. Debut results for past opposition leaders were 35% approval and 40% disapproval for Anthony Albanese in 2019, 32% and 24% for Bill Shorten in 2013, 40% and 35% for Tony Abbott in 2010, 50% and 25% for Malcolm Turnbull in 2008, 36% and 19% for Brendan Nelson in 2008 and 41% and 10% for Kevin Rudd in 2006. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1508.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,966 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Just saw video of the Thorpe thing. It was adolescent, awkward, embarrassing and counterproductive.
    A shame.
    Hopefully it’ll be forgotten within a couple of days.

  2. Mexicanbeemer @ #397 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 4:38 pm

    What Lidia did was not civil disobedience but a childish stunt by an attention seeking backbencher.

    Sure. But it worked, didn’t it? What are we all talking about now? Existential climate crises? Energy shortages? Covid? Interest rates? Inflation? No – we are outraged by one woman and her black power salute 🙁

  3. Astrobleme says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:39 pm
    She may not be successful in the end, but Civil Disobedience is pretty much the ONLY way to win rights from powerful organisations.
    ——————————
    Lidia Thorpe is part of that organisation and knows the current parliament has much goodwill towards FNP but that’s her real problem because she brings nothing but stunts.

  4. “And isn’t it also rather condescending of us Whites to be telling others that the only valid way for a Blak to behave in parliament is for them to behave like Lidia Thorpe?”

    Has anyone said her behaviour is the only way?
    I only see people saying she shouldn’t behave that way, or it’s fine to make a point.

  5. He says he can Stop Extinctions by 2030.

    We are only at the start of the train wreck. Apply the brakes now and they wont slow it for many decades.

  6. “Lidia Thorpe is part of that organisation and knows the current parliament has much goodwill towards FNP but that’s her real problem because she brings nothing but stunts.”

    Yeah, if only she would stop, right? Just make her stop…
    Be quiet, you’re making me feel uncomfortable…

    Yeah yeah. Heard it all before.

  7. Jan 6

    I wouldn’t believe Boerwar’s impression of what Bandt said you can rest assured he will mangle it so it is nonsense.

    Go to the source

  8. Boerwar says:

    For the past 4 decades I have yearned for a Voice, for a Makarrata and for a treaty. It scarcely bears thinking about that it is not PHON that is wrecking the joint.
    _________
    C’mon guys. BW has been waiting for this for decades, and now Lidia Thorpe is threatening his dreams.

  9. “I’m not feeling anything for and about Lidia Thorpe.”

    Ok, but you’re still talking about it, which is really her goal. To talk about Colonialisation, our relationship with Britain and the Monarchy, the fact there was not treaty, that land was stolen not conquered… Etc.

  10. I have noticed our owls have gone. Havent seen a bird of prey at all for a while. Yet you try to ask the neighbours to change to more owl friendly rat poison and perhaps ask their gardeners to use less spray and you get a polite face but a clear body language of pain – like I am asking them for a loan.

    F’ers. I am leaving my bins out till Saturday to spite them.

  11. “No one is saying Lidia should shut up.”

    Rex is paraphrasing.
    There’s a lot of people saying she shouldn’t have done it

  12. Astrobleme
    People will but thought you were asking why was i talking about. Lidia is fully entitled as a senator to make daily speeches about the structure of government and the parliament.

  13. The greens should tell thorpe to retire she seems to not be helfpful to them asshe will alianate thegreens push to be mainstream

  14. Astrobleme ,
    Actually we’re not talking about colonization at all. We’re talking about a dumb stunt that will only divide people rather than bring them together.
    The PM announced this past weekend the willingness to make steps towards reconciliation a serious priority for the government. And her contribution has been to take oxygen away form that and make it about her. That should be a bright red warning light to everyone that this women is going to be a problem for the voice.

  15. Thorpe is a member of a Party that has the BOP in the Senate. She is on a quarter of a million a year. She has daily gigs in the MSM.

    And SHE is disenfranchised?

    Yeah. Right.

  16. I notice that Astrobleme continues to avoid the impact of Thorpe’s behaviour on the chances of a Voice getting up.
    If I were a Greens I would be busy deflecting from that as well.

  17. So, what do you think, Astrobleme? Thorpe is increasing the chances of the Voice getting up? Is that what this is all really about? The Greens are busting to bust the Voice? What?

    Or is she helping Bolt et al?

  18. nath @ #414 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 4:47 pm

    Boerwar says:

    For the past 4 decades I have yearned for a Voice, for a Makarrata and for a treaty. It scarcely bears thinking about that it is not PHON that is wrecking the joint.
    _________
    C’mon guys. BW has been waiting for this for decades, and now Lidia Thorpe is threatening his dreams.

    You sound weirdly sanguine and chuffed about that.

  19. Player One,
    Outspoken. Blak. Woman. Green.
    —-
    And unable to see the forest for the trees. Which seems to be a uniquely green party problem I think.

    So how do you think Lidia will contribute to the voice campaign because it’s 2 days old and this is what we’re talking about?

  20. The greens should tell thorpe to retire she seems to not be helfpful to them asshe will alianate thegreens push to be mainstream

    This depends. Maybe the Greens dont want to be mainstream. Maybe they want the mainstream to move to their policy agenda. If so, how do they best achieve that? Or maybe they just want to be a medium sized activist party. Or, more likely, they are trying to be many things.

    I dont think this hurts their brand – it does depend a little on how Bandt and the others manage it. SHY hasnt tweeted. Leaving it to Beaver seems wise.

  21. Boerwar says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:19 pm
    ‘Astrobleme says:
    Monday, August 1, 2022 at 4:12 pm

    Guess no one here has heard of Civil Disobedience… Nor considered why it is important.

    She’s doing this, so that people have this conversation.’
    ===================================
    There was no ‘civil disobedience’. Thorpe has done four things:

    1. Carried out the Black Power salute in the Senate. That should help the Voice referendum get up, don’t you think?
    2. Took an oath in bad faith while still taking the money as a lawmaker to uphold the Constitution that generated the oath. Unpick the inconsistences?
    3. Derided an elderly woman. Such courage!
    4. Misrepresented the priorities in the Statement from the Heart, undermining its chances of getting up, and essentially telling the majority of Indigenous people who support the Statement from the Heart as is, they can GAGF.

    Go ahead. Converse!
    __________________________________________________________
    Lidia Thorpe had no option but to take the oath of allegiance to the British monarchy, if she wanted to sit in the Senate to which she had been duly elected. The same applies to all other MPs, even if they are committed to making Australia a republic. It is what our constitution requires and will require until changed by referendum.
    I think oaths of allegiance under any system are a bit anachronistic, since parliaments nowadays are supposed to be representative of the people. MPs’ allegiance should only be to their constituents, not unelected monarchs or even republican heads of state.
    However, that’s the way it currently is. Senator Thorpe should not feel ashamed, nor should she feel bound by an oath she was forced to take. Perhaps it would have been a better look if Thorpe had avoided deliberately provocative language, but I kind of get her point.
    I also wouldn’t worry about Thorpe “deriding an elderly woman”. I’m sure her maj is a big enough girl to look after herself and has probably copped far worse.

  22. Astrobleme @ #408 Monday, August 1st, 2022 – 4:44 pm

    “Lidia Thorpe is part of that organisation and knows the current parliament has much goodwill towards FNP but that’s her real problem because she brings nothing but stunts.”

    Yeah, if only she would stop, right? Just make her stop…
    Be quiet, you’re making me feel uncomfortable…

    Yeah yeah. Heard it all before.

    If she had real guts she would go and join Les Coe at the Aboriginal Tent Embassy and refuse to be a part of the ‘Colonialists’ parliament altogether. At least Les Coe has the courage of his convictions. At least he’s not accepting the ‘Colonialists’ filthy blood money. That’s what she thinks it is, doesn’t she? To be consistent with her Sovereign Citizen beliefs. I mean, if all Lidia Thorpe wanted to do was ‘stir things up’, she could refuse the Senator’s salary and just turn up. But that would demonstrate true commitment. And not the performative sort she is up to now.

  23. “Act more like the supreme establishment, or else !!”

    Seems like the Senator is acting like the supreme establishment just fine. Shame about the views of those behind the Statement, who she is ignoring in a very establishment way.

  24. The Greens have a problem.
    Thorpe walked out with 6 others, leaving behind 243 Indigenous people who supported the Statement from the Heart.
    So the Greens went with Thorpe’s Statement from the Heart. Whatever else you might say about this, it was not the majority Indigenous view. Not by a country mile. But it formed the Greens’ policy going into the election campaign. And it remains the Greens policy.
    They simply do not support the Statement from the Heart.
    But wait, there is more.
    Given an opportunity to support the first element of the Statement, the Greens do not do it. They stunt. They deflect. They want more details. They want a discussion. They disagree with this and they disagree with that.
    In short, the Greens have done nothing but suck oxygen from the Statement of the Heart: from the beginning to now.
    There are several reasonable conclusions:
    1. The Greens are telling the majority of Indigenous people they can GAGF.
    2. The Greens are effectively trying to sink the implementation of the Statement from the Heart.
    3. The Greens are, once again, in the same racing team as the Sky After Dark Crew.

    Some Greens actually seem to dimly perceive that all is not well with this positioning or this course of action. It is, after all, terribly destructive of years and years of work, consultations and effort by hundreds of Indigenous leaders.

    So the Greens choose to make it all about a single individual’s right to speak.
    But absolutely no-one has argued against that single individual’s right to speak.

    Bandt needs to show some spine here.

  25. There are very few independent presenters and journalists in media (both print and electronic) these days, the HMV variety of presenters and journalists reflecting Murdoch, Stokes and Costello and their respective political biases in the very great majority.

    Noting Murdoch, Stokes and Costello pay their wages.

    To me at least, the exceptions are Maley and Gittens (both of 9 Entertainment)

    So it is of interest to see the headline applied to the Gittens article today.

    Across society, and a blight on society, we see individuals and groups hiding behind a “name”, whether that be religion, the military, the police in commerce and industry or any other discipline.

    We recently saw Victoria Police and the Police Association critical of a jury decision!!!!

    But, back to Gittens and “vendors just jack up prices when there’s inflation talk”

    Which has traction.

    “We will hide behind inflation as the reason for increasing our prices – and reducing the size of the offering”

    No doubt, the ACCC is not in a position to identify and act on all such blatant manipulation – it just does not have the resource.

    So the response is down to consumers.

    Because the other side of making a profit is growing your market share AND maintaining your Gross Profit, the increase in Gross Profit leading to an increased Net Profit Before Tax (and Retained Profits after Dividends – so remunerating Shareholders)

    The Retained Profit utilized to part fund (along with Term Lenders and Trade Creditors) the further expansion of the business model (whilst retaining prudent ownership of the Balance Sheet)

    Instead we have a demographic using inflation as the excuse to up their prices (and reduce the volume of the product)

    Then you get to CoreLogic – an international business model thru mergers and acquisitions and its commentary on house prices .

    Simply, in a market where very few (by comparison) houses change ownership, the measure is like by like, so virtually impossible because houses change ownership from (say) $500,000- to multiples of millions.

    So the average (and the mean) are always distorted.

    A property which was on the market 6 or 12 months ago and is now back on the market is the indicator, but how many of these are there?

    Anything else is guesswork – to give publicity to an International Company which operates in analysis across the field it does.

    I am one who has always maintained that housing is A (singular) transaction, the requirement being a willing buyer and a willing seller (because that is the basis for the very great percentage of transactions)

    Without a willing buyer and a willing seller there is no transaction (unless, of course, it is a forced sale because of servicing problems, so loss of employment or a divorce/death)

    Any other analysis is rubbish – designed for a headline and providing exposure to a Company.

    But we get the headline “House prices crashing”.

    So tell me, given someone says the valuation of your home is in decline, what are you going to do about it?

    Panic and sell?

    Living where?

    And investing the (net) proceeds of the sale where?

    Buying a cheaper property – having sold yours at a cheaper price (plus Transfer costs)?

    We really are subjected to a lot of nonsense by media and those they court or are users of media for exposure.

    And it is all about a headline, both in our press and on our TV screens (presented by someone clever enough to read their “cheat sheet” but having no contribution to the substance, therefore not questioning)

    And panic, which sells

  26. Sir Henry Parkes,
    WTF!

    By taking the oath she wasn’t forced. She had a choice, she has agency here. She IS bound by it because she took it, and if she took it in bad faith that’s actually a lot worse.

    I don’t think she’s very self reflective because this isn’t people tut tut-ing her over something trivial, it’s in the constitution. The thing that enables all laws in this country. So if she’s going to optionally opt out of laws then why not just opt out of other laws she doesn’t like.

    Seems like she was once a bankruptcy, did she opt out of paying her bills because she didn’t want to???

  27. As Nadine on twitter put it:

    FUCK YEAH DIVISIVE RACISTS BEING DIVISIVE AND RACIST BY CALLING THINGS DIVISIVE AND RACIST THAT ARE NEITHER DIVISIVE NOR RACIST IN ORDER TO BE DIVISIVE AND RACIST

  28. As possum, previously of these parts:

    More power to Lidia. The performative naysaying in the background tells it’s own tawdry story.

  29. The right wing religious loons that make up the WA Liberals have decided their position on the voice. Headline from the WEST, content behind the paywall;

    WA Liberal Party votes to call on Federal Opposition to oppose Indigenous Voice to Parliament

  30. “I notice that Astrobleme continues to avoid the impact of Thorpe’s behaviour on the chances of a Voice getting up.”

    Why would it affect them?

  31. I think the ‘more Blak Power to Lidia’ crew are telling their own story.

    It is disrespecting the differing views of all the other Indigenous MPs in federal parliament, who don’t subscribe to ‘Blak Power Sovereign Citizen’ Lidia’s view.

    It is supporting the view of a tiny minority of Indigenous Australians.

    That is their right.

    That doesn’t make it right.

  32. “Why would it affect them?”

    Anyone racist enough to be upset by Lidia today, was racist enough to find a reason for ‘no’ sooner or later.

    In many ways a ‘no’ reinforces the need for more and more fervent action, not less.

  33. My very last question:

    Will the Senator be totally OK with people personally opting out of any voice, or treaty written into the constitution if one is added?

    Because it would seem that the document is either entirely serious, or none of it is.

    So any additions will be treated with the respect that is given to the current document. No?

    She get’s paid too much to not do her job seriously.

  34. South

    “We’re talking about a dumb stunt that will only divide people rather than bring them together.”
    Indeed, some of you are, but that’s because you’re studiously avoiding talking about the substance.

    That you would rather criticise someone for their apparent bad behaviour than look at why and what they are doing is rather telling.

    Stop the oppressed speaking out… Preserve the authority of the existing power… Pretty lame stuff

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