Morgan polls, SEC Newgate poll, JSCEM submissions (open thread)

A burst of enthusiasm for the monarchy, steady support for federal Labor, and some other stuff.

Two contributions from Roy Morgan: its weekly report video tells us this week’s federal polling has Labor’s lead unchanged at 53.5-46.5, without offering any information on primary votes, and it has an SMS poll of 1012 respondents conducted on Sunday that found a 60-40 split in favour of retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic, albeit it might be faulted for having been conducted at an uncommonly opportune moment for monarchist sentiment.

The Australian also reported yesterday that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy; and 57% holding the view that the state was headed in the right direction, the highest of any state. Conversely, 53% of New South Wales respondents felt the state was heading in the wrong direction and only 35% believed the Perrottet government was doing a good job, the worst results for any state, although sample sizes in some cases would have been very small. The polling was conducted from August 31 to September 5 from a sample of 1502, 600 of whom were in Victoria.

Finally, the first batch of submissions – 212 of them – have been published from the Joint Standing Committe on Electoral Matters’ inquiry into the federal election. I haven’t had time to read any of them myself, but there are a good many notable names featured, though nothing yet from the parties.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,137 comments on “Morgan polls, SEC Newgate poll, JSCEM submissions (open thread)”

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  1. Couch Submariners

    Just heard mention on the tv here in France of the possibility of Australia again buying subs from France. Not certain of the details or of absolute confirmation.

    The gastronomic tour continues here in Lyon after visiting yet another 1-star Michelin restaurant for lunch. Seriously Bludgers, should you ever get the opportunity, lunch at these establishments is so much cheaper than dinners that we could never afford. Ms Cronus is also concerned I may contract the lesser-known Patisserie Poisoning. She has reason to be concerned.

  2. https://www.economist.com/international/2022/09/09/some-of-the-new-kings-realms-may-become-republics

    I note the Economist has QE2 down in terms of number of realms over her reign, let’s see KC3 given Brexitannia and horse face for a Queen Consort, in Liz we Truss

    The firm might be worth 42B, apparently QE2 is dispersing 700M without duties or taxes, all exemptions, special privileges unlike commoners

    Presumably red Liebor/ blue Libs lite still favor a Malaysian style solution, with local royals by landbridge instead of plane or boat, ceremonialing, affirmative action …

    It’s time for the colonial Union Jack to come of the flag, arise King Arthur Seenodonors (or more likely Juliar There Will Be No … Gillard), and may be some of them French subs can be used to tow the quaint island off the coast of Europe to the mid Atlantic and sink it beyond the Pillars of Hercules, fix that Atlantic Conveyor current despite the climate crisis/ emergency/ change

    Let’s see what comes after VTP, treaty/ reparations, TRC

    At least royals don’t need to steal from the people, their ancestors already did, unlike some elected Prez and junta

  3. that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy;
    —————————-
    Lol Taylormade

  4. Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 40% (=) CON: 28% (=) LDM: 10% (+1) GRN: 6% (-1) RFM: 5% (+1) SNP: 4% (-1)
    Via @PeoplePolling , 13 Sep. Changes w/ 7 Sep.

  5. Cronus

    Good for you! Lyon has fantastic food; I never had a less than excellent meal there. Also ask for recommendations on a local wine; some of the small regional vineyards there make excellent pinot.

    The French subs talk might be a repeat of Macron’s reported offer to build SSKs in his June meeting with Albo.

    But with both UK and USA now clearly unable to build SSNs for Australia on even a ten year timeframe, France has to be a serious option. My previous preference for the UK sub was based on a “batch 2 Astute” being available. If that is off the table and we are waiting ten years for a risky new design process, UK is a worse option.

    With Macron coming again in November, if the French were willing to do a joint build on French SSNs for the RAN now, we should take it. With the US combat system fitted, and no other stuffing around with the design, they would still be regionally superior i.e. better than anything China (or Russia) has to threaten us.

  6. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. This morning I have slightly relaxed my restriction on royal fluff in order to link some thoughtful contributions.

    In a very informative contribution, Peter Hartcher happily declares that finally, a fully cooked federal corruption watchdog, with bite is imminent.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/finally-a-fully-cooked-federal-corruption-watchdog-with-bite-20220915-p5bib4.html
    But Karen Middleton reports that according to the Commonwealth ombudsman, Australia’s law enforcement agencies have persistently accessed, retained and used private email, voicemail and text messages without legal authority and failed to provide the data protections that the law requires.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/09/17/pretty-creepy-agencies-illegally-obtained-emails-voicemails-and-texts
    For months, Philip Lowe and the Reserve Bank have been kicked around by politicians like a football in the middle of the MCG. But yesterday, says Shane Wright, the RBA governor returned fire with some very pointed kicks to the shins of the political class. Lowe (correctly) pointed out that governments would soon have to either increase taxes, cut services or undertake some serious structural reform so the economy was larger and generated more revenue.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/politicians-go-lowe-he-goes-high-20220916-p5bio7.html
    Writing about Albanese’s budget reality check, John Hewson says, “It is now clear that we simply can’t afford the stage 3 tax cuts, and that is over and above the extent to which they would further compound the inequity of the tax system. It is true that Albanese has committed to keep them, but he also left himself some wriggle room if circumstances were to change.”
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/09/17/albaneses-budget-reality-check
    The death of Elizabeth II and accession of Charles III is a fascinating, real-time civics lesson and, for many, an uncomfortable reminder about who Australia serves, write Chip Le Grand and Jack Latimore.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/while-britain-mourns-australia-confronts-its-unfinished-business-20220915-p5bi7h.html
    Mile Foley tells us that Engineer John Bradfield’s grand plan to irrigate the dry, dusty interior of the continent has captured the national imagination and spawned countless campaigns to fund it. Now, 80 years after he proposed it, CSIRO has counted the project’s cost and even the most optimistic assumptions show taxpayers footing a $20 billion bill, or more. Even if farmers got the water for free, Barnaby Joyce’s brain fart resurrection of the plan would not turn a profit.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/water-scheme-beloved-by-the-nationals-would-pump-20-billion-down-the-drain-20220908-p5bgdu.html
    Examining the Reserve Bank’s latest statement on monetary policy, Shane Wright and Rachel Clun provide us with five economic indicators to watch for the first signs of an Australian slowdown.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/five-economic-indicators-to-watch-for-the-first-signs-of-an-australian-slowdown-20220908-p5bgcq.html
    Higher taxes and cuts in spending are vital if the government wants to fund quality services and repair the budget, Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe has told politicians while warning home prices are likely to fall 10 per cent as interest rates rise.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/soft-landing-not-certain-lowe-sees-growing-overseas-risks-to-australia-s-economy-20220916-p5bijz.html
    Ross Gittins begins this contribution with, “If you think the rich are getting richer, you’re right – but maybe not for the reason you think. It’s mainly the rising price of housing, which is steadily reshaping our society, and not for the better.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-housing-dream-that-became-a-nightmare-and-isn-t-over-yet-20220915-p5big7.html
    Academics and bank workers are pushing for the right to ignore calls and emails outside of hours to restore their work-life balance and mental health in a new battlefront opening up in the fight for better conditions, explains Angus Thompson.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/weekend-the-new-frontline-in-the-white-collar-battle-for-the-right-to-unplug-20220916-p5bikc.html
    And the SMH editorial supports this, saying that employers must respect the right to disconnect from work.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/employers-must-respect-the-right-to-disconnect-from-work-20220916-p5birp.html
    Matthew Knott tells us about Manasseh Sogavare, the ‘paranoid’ Pacific leader tormenting Canberra.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/manasseh-sogavare-the-paranoid-pacific-leader-tormenting-canberra-20220914-p5bi3n.html
    “Now that Charles is King, who will badger environmental vandals?”, wonders Nick O’Malley.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/now-that-charles-is-king-who-will-badger-environmental-vandals-20220915-p5bidr.html
    Perhaps, behind the crown lies nothing at all, posits a singularly unimpressed Richard Flanagan. He says, “In Australia, the coverage of the royals this past week has resembled the official lamentations more commonly associated with the passing of totalitarian leaders, in equal parts insincere and increasingly ludicrous.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/perhaps-behind-the-crown-lies-nothing-at-all-20220916-p5biop.html
    King Charles, deeply familiar with our long but dismal debate about the republic, is far better prepared to manage this issue than his Australian advisers who sit atop an Australian public lacking the energy or game plan to pursue the republic. Paul Kelly says that Anthony Albanese has done the republic a service by dismissing any referendum this term.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/ours-to-command-lessons-republicans-must-learn/news-story/3863ae49d23ab30e644718e0c7c347e0
    The pageantry of the royal succession has all but eliminated debate on an Australian republic, opines Malcolm Farr.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/17/the-pageantry-of-the-royal-succession-has-all-but-eliminated-debate-on-an-australian-republic
    It remains unclear exactly how Anthony Albanese plans to manage the inevitable debate brewing over when and how Australia makes the transition to a republic. But that doesn’t mean he has no strategy, writes Peter van Onselen.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/three-steps-albanese-needs-for-to-secure-a-republic-victory/news-story/739e6a1ccb18891b36605fbee4a1af39
    The Queen’s death will not change the PM’s timeline for a referendum on Australia becoming a republic, but how we vote on the Indigenous Voice could have a major bearing, argues Michelle Grattan.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/why-voting-on-an-indigenous-voice-will-shape-prospects-of-republic-referendum-20220916-p5bijg.html
    Australia’s most ardent monarchist prime minister – not Tony Abbott or John Howard but Robert Menzies – would have been very impressed with the response of our avowed republican leader, Anthony Albanese, to the passing of our borrowed head of state, Queen Elizabeth II, writes Paul Bongiorno who says, “Uneasy lies the head of a republican prime minister”.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/09/17/uneasy-lies-the-head-republican-prime-minister
    Julia Baird, frequently frustrated by blocked access to historical records, declares that it’s time King Charles called off the royal censors.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/god-save-our-history-it-s-time-king-charles-called-off-royal-censors-20220915-p5bib5.html
    The British Empire is long gone. However, watching the procession of Queen Elizabeth II’s coffin from Buckingham Palace to Westminster Hall late on Wednesday, it was evident that the United Kingdom can still put on a fine military parade, writes Gerard Henderson in an article redolent in his usual attacks on the ABC.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/end-of-monarchy-not-without-a-genuine-debate/news-story/7a1f477f62bcf0b6520f558f0acf4c50
    There is set to be some anxiety in monarchist groups in the community as they reconcile the ascent of King Charles III to the throne with their fear. Even in educated hard right circles like The Spectator Australia’s readership, conspiracy theories about him are evident, writes Lucy Hamilton.
    https://theaimn.com/the-right-wing-disinfosphere-and-the-king/
    Thomas Keneally writes about what the ascension of King Charles means for the republican movement.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2022/09/17/what-king-charles-means-the-republican-movement
    This week the country’s most eminent legal minds started a nationwide consultation process to pressure test Anthony Albanese’s proposed constitutional amendment to enshrine a First Nations voice. This is an important step in the long road to constitutional recognition that this country has been journeying on for decades, explains The Australian’s Megan Davis.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/our-brightest-legal-minds-are-working-for-a-sound-voice/news-story/d1e542bb0781bb5732fa8093302144eb
    Shareholders in such a heavy-regulated industry as casinos ought to bear some of the risk that their agents – board members and top management – breach their licence requirements, argues the AFR’s editorial.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/games-and-wagering/casino-shareholders-should-lose-on-dirty-money-bets-20220914-p5bi3j
    The Saturday Paper has learnt that the Albanese government was squeezed between the CMO being undecided about whether it was safe to make that cut but being inclined towards caution, and neoliberal New South Wales Premier Dominic Perrottet noisily pressing for the abandonment of mandated isolation altogether. Chris Wallace writes about how the government can pass the Covid test.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/09/17/how-government-can-pass-the-covid-test
    Considering the government’s withdrawal of funding for the G-G’s $18m charity, John Lord says, “What angers me most is the bloody secrecy and the belief that you can get away with it”.
    https://theaimn.com/what-angers-me-most-is-the-bloody-secrecy-and-the-belief-that-you-can-get-away-with-it/
    The families of 19-year-old Kumanjayi Walker, who was shot dead by police constable Zachary Rolfe during an attempted arrest in Yuendumu in 2019, have waited three years to hear what they described as “absolutely horrific” revelations in his inquest this week – not about the way their young man died, but about the “disgusting and racist” words and alleged questionable conduct of the officer who shot him.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/17/racist-texts-cover-up-allegations-kumanjayi-walker-inquest-poses-big-questions-for-police
    The High Court has upheld a state law that undermines a core guarantee of liberty and will disproportionately punish Indigenous offenders, explains Kieran Pender.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2022/09/17/the-high-courts-disturbing-ruling-preventive-detention
    In her weekly media roundup, Amanda Reade writes about the ABC going well over the top in its coverage of the death of the Queen. She also gives News Ltd a good serve over its biased reporting (fabrication) on Victorian crime levels.
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/sep/16/conservative-critics-have-nowhere-to-turn-as-the-abc-goes-all-in-on-coverage-of-the-queens-death
    Are we royally stuffed by the coverage of the Queen’s death rites? Or should anyone who wants to carp stay under the couch? Analysis from MWM‘s man on the ground Callum Foote and one-time staunch republican Mark Sawyer.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/abc-media-monarchy-reporting/
    With the cost of living growing and home ownership becoming increasingly distant, governments need to pull Australia out of its downward spiral of poverty, writes Gerry Georgatos.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/poverty-is-a-persistent-crisis,16773
    An ‘alliance’ of unions and environmental groups is helping change the debate on energy transition in Australia’s biggest coal region, explains Tom Morton.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environment/2022/09/17/im-not-loyal-coal-the-hunter-readies-change
    In SA, the conservative wing of the Liberal Party is expected to seize power from the moderates at the party’s annual general meeting this weekend, bringing to a head a months-long factional power struggle.
    https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/conservative-wing-of-liberal-party-set-to-seize-power-from-moderates-at-agm-this-weekend/news-story/47934d081c466abbc115b1ae3262de9f?amp
    Victorian sperm donations plummeted during the pandemic. Now, women are struggling to find donors, in particular, from Caucasian men, reports Shona Hendley.
    https://www.theage.com.au/lifestyle/health-and-wellness/too-many-women-not-enough-sperm-the-victorian-donor-dilemma-20220906-p5bfqy.html
    Labor has inherited the likely choice of a submarine not yet designed – in an exercise supposedly about the urgency of our strategic situation, writes Laura Tingle who says the politics of submarines are reaching a pivot point.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-politics-of-submarines-are-reaching-a-pivot-point-20220915-p5bi8v
    Our eighteenth century health workforce structure needs a root and branch overhaul. But governments are too frightened to tackle health providers like doctors and pharmacists. Blue collar workers however are easy prey, says John Menadue about how the demarcations and restrictive work force practices in our health ‘system’ are a public scandal.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-demarcations-and-restrictive-work-force-practices-in-our-health-system-are-a-public-scandal/
    An inquiry has found alleged triad-linked junket operators were running a de facto casino at The Star, and the casino routinely misled regulators, writes Rick Morton in the wake of the inquiry into its operations. What Australians have seen, he says, first with Crown and now The Star is a culture where casino operators are willing to hoodwink regulators by almost any means.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2022/09/17/casino-within-casino-stars-extraordinary-breaches
    Victoria’s powerful police union claims the force is on the brink of a crisis, with officers routinely taking an hour to attend high-priority callouts such as armed robberies and home invasions.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/union-warns-of-police-callout-crisis-as-opposition-pledges-to-publish-response-times-20220916-p5bimg.html
    The AFL is sticking out its tongue at the NRL. Literally. A map of Aussie Rules clubs across the nation reveals a tongue-shaped projection encroaching deep into NSW. Roy Masters points out that the “Barassi Line” – a divider separating the AFL states of Victoria and the south and west of Australia from the rugby codes in NSW and Queensland – has moved significantly north.
    https://www.smh.com.au/sport/nrl/how-afl-is-poking-its-tongue-out-at-rugby-league-heartland-20220908-p5bgmp.html
    More from Mike Gilligan on the Defence Strategic Review.
    https://johnmenadue.com/the-defence-strategic-review-part-1-the-hollywood-version-of-anzus/
    It’s foolish to expect King Charles to save us from a government gone rogue, says Gaby Hinsliff.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/16/king-charles-government-hereditary-monarchy-survival
    As Europe battles to keep the lights on this winter, there is growing optimism that Russia now has few ways left to ratchet up the energy stand-off without causing pain to itself, explains the London Telegraph’s Matt Oliver who says Putin’s gas blackmail is in danger of backfiring on him.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/putin-s-gas-blackmail-is-in-danger-of-backfiring-on-him-20220915-p5bi60.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcwZ3p5aUAYHTqV?format=jpg&name=900×900
    David Pope

    Richard Giliberto

    John Shakespeare


    Simon Letch (referring to Julia Baird’s article)

    Jon Kudelka

    Alan Moir

    Andrew Dyson

    Jim Pavlidis

    Matt Davidson

    Fiona Katauskas

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US






















  7. The Australian also reported yesterday that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy; and 57% holding the view that the state was headed in the right direction

    ________________

    That’s made my day 😆

  8. Thanks BK for the roundup, some good stuff this morning.
    Tingle’s article is good as always, highlighting the inherent contradiction in AUKUS of choosing a long term solution, justified by a project that is urgent now.

  9. Insiders Sunday, 18 Sep

    David Speers joins Andrew Probyn, Jennifer Hewett and Osman Faruqi to discuss stunning advances made by Ukrainian forces, the Presidents of Russia and China meet, world leaders gather for the Queen’s funeral plus the economy.

    Guest : Richard Marles – Defence Minister

  10. “ The Australian also reported yesterday that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state; cost of living, health care and employment as the top priorities; “nearly half” trusting Daniel Andrews to lead the state through pandemic challenges compared with 16% for Matthew Guy; and 57% holding the view that the state was headed in the right direction”

    It is as though 57% of Victorians are planning to reelect the Labor government.

  11. Republicans’ abortion problem keeps getting bigger, drives support for Democrats

    https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/16/2123310/-Abortion-continues-to-drive-Democratic-momentum-in-polls

    From the article:
    the message from a brand-new New York Times/Siena College poll. The poll found that 52% of voters strongly oppose the Supreme Court’s decision in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health decision overturning Roe v. Wade, while another 10% just oppose it. Just 19% said they strongly support it, and another 11% sort of support it. Among women, where new voter registrations have surged, 57% strongly oppose the ruling, vs. 15% who strongly support it.

    While voters remain concerned about the economy, and Republicans lead on that issue by a 14-point margin, 52 to 38%, Democrats have a 73% to 18% lead over Republicans among voters who said “societal issues” like abortion or threats to democracy are the most pressing issues for them this November.

  12. ” SMS poll of 1012 respondents conducted on Sunday that found a 60-40 split in favour of retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic”…

    Oh dear, polling Republic vs Monarchy now, after QEII has just passed away and the people have been carpet-bombed with neverending Monarchic brouhaha for days, is truly laughable. In fact, I would say that 60% in favour of the Monarchy, under these circumstances, should rather worry the Monarchists, far more than the Republicans.

    The next Republic referendum will be in the ALP second term, that’s at least 4 years away…. by then, Charlie-king would have reversed the emotional feeling of the voters about the Monarchy…. Let’s wait and see…. 🙂

  13. @Socrates:

    “ With Macron coming again in November, if the French were willing to do a joint build on French SSNs for the RAN now, we should take it. With the US combat system fitted, and no other stuffing around with the design, they would still be regionally superior i.e. better than anything China (or Russia) has to threaten us.”

    Call them “Block 1”. 6 to be delivered between 2033 and 2041 (2 French built, 4 combined French & Australian construction with final assembly at Osbourne).

    Then spend this decade perfecting a design for “Block 2” (with a VL module); with boats being manufactured in Adelaide for delivery in the 2040s.

    Nearly all of the Block 1 boats could be delivered before the first AUKUS boat hits the water (unless the Americans build us some first, which they wont). Block 2 boats would be as capable as any AUKUS boat – in some critical ways more so (LEU reactors being able to power down to minimal power for stealth work in the littoral; battery electric drive being far quieter than the AUKUS gear reduction drive systems).

  14. Ven

    Re your comments on an early (Oct/Nov) election call by Liz Truss

    It’d be a mighty brave new Prime Minister – 6 to 8 weeks into the job and just getting used to the big bucks, the prestige and the fawning lackeys – who’d roll the dice on an early election, based on what could well be an ephemeral poll lead .. if one actually appears that is

    Taking the latest polls in the round they still show Labour ahead, although there has been a narrowing which had been widely expected anyway due to the usual new-PM bounce (it could be that the media overload on HMQ is working against Liz Truss)

    It’s not that long ago that Theresa May came a cropper with a snap election, and as she found out the Tories don’t need to lose badly to fall from power .. she topped the poll and won most seats but Jeremy Corbyn ended up a dozen seats from Downing Street

    PS The new constituency boundaries don’t come in till 2023 either so there’s no benefit there

  15. “The Australian also reported yesterday that SEC Newgate polling found 57% of Victorians were optimistic about the direction of the state”

    Bye bye, Lobster….. even Murdoch has given up on you… it’s over!

    Perrottet is next…. What’s the argument for giving yet another term to the Coalition in NSW?… The creative propaganda department will have to work extra-hard, with great doubts about their probability of success….

  16. Alpo @ #21 Friday, September 16th, 2022 – 11:32 pm

    ” SMS poll of 1012 respondents conducted on Sunday that found a 60-40 split in favour of retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic”…

    Oh dear, polling Republic vs Monarchy now, after QEII has just passed away and the people have been carpet-bombed with neverending Monarchic brouhaha for days, is truly laughable. In fact, I would say that 60% in favour of the Monarchy, under these circumstances, should rather worry the Monarchists, far more than the Republicans.

    The next Republic referendum will be in the ALP second term, that’s at least 4 years away…. by then, Charlie-king would have reversed the emotional feeling of the voters about the Monarchy…. Let’s wait and see…. 🙂

    Alpo

    I published a chart the other day showing a 30-point turnaround in King Charles’ personal ratings when the Queen died, from what had been a steady 30% positive for years into 60% now

    The British mood swinging wildly in the near-hysteria of the media coverage .. shades of Princess Diana

    The public have been down on Charles for years – egged on by the gutter press by the way – so my guess is his popularity will decline markedly in fairly short order

  17. Ray
    An early election is at it should be – Parliament, which was summoned at the Monarch’s pleasure, was automatically dissolved with the demise of the crown.
    The last time this occured was in 1837 with the death of William IV and the provision was abolished in a representation of the people act in 1867

  18. A_E
    I would love to know what is the connection, hinted at on PB, between Minns and Jamie Clements and why its important
    I would have thought Clements became a non-person after he allegedly assaulted his assistant

  19. Oakeshott Country @ #29 Friday, September 16th, 2022 – 11:49 pm

    Ray
    An early election is at it should be – Parliament, which was summoned at the Monarch’s pleasure, was automatically dissolved with the demise of the crown.
    The last time this occured was in 1837 with the death of William IV and the provision was abolished in a representation of the people act in 1867

    Not many years ago the position of David Cameron and Boris Johnson – among others – was that New PM=New Election .. this of course was after Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair

    They seem to have changed their minds lately, can’t think why 🙂

    They cooled on the F

  20. Charles will probably have a “honeymoon” period like most PMs after they first take office. However, by this time next year if not sooner the gloss will have worn off. Charles will be part of the furniture and the usual Royal soap opera will have resumed, complete with its pettiness, silliness and scandals. It is unlikely that C3 will be as popular as QE2. More voters will be open to a Republic.

  21. Re Perrottet – I’m in the snowy mountains atm and flicked the radio over to 2xl yesterday to hear Ray Hadley ripping into Perrottet big time. From what RH said he’s seen as a lefty apparently, ditto Keen. RH even had nice things to say about Chris Minns at one point. Go figure.

  22. Charles shows a bit of character like his father which the plebs will sometimes relate to.
    This could be a positive for the monarchys popularity. It’s all like a reality tv show.

  23. Oakeshott Country @ #35 Friday, September 16th, 2022 – 11:57 pm

    Ray
    My memory is that Gordon Brown was also up for an early election but lost his bottle and it was downhill from there on.

    Yep, October 2007 from memory

    I reckon he’d have won it too

    The polls were pretty good, he got spooked by a solitary marginal seats poll I recall – which I’m not sure was ever published, just briefed to the media

    How different things could have been

  24. Come one A E whatever there is personal going on the Libs need to go. Labor is building a decent team in NSW. It’s competitive at least. I hope they win.

  25. I’m thinking a big baguette with a snorkel on top with mess tables laden with patisseries and champers with which to splice the mainbrace.

  26. The Solomon Islands story in the SMH exemplifies the reason PM Sogavare has reacted and continues to react to the governments of Australia and China.
    I would suggest it is Australia displaying paranoia with Sogavare reacting in the only possible way available.
    China offers “a bag of money”.
    Australia offers “platitudes” and its own paranoia.
    Sogavare, born in Popondetta in PNG, during colonial rule, the Church of England prevailing, a member of the Seven Day Adventists and an outsider.
    Sogavare is black as distinct from the red of Papuans!
    Sogavare experienced discrimination by being not white, not red and but black. A significant factor which relates acccurately within a racially diverse Solomon Islands.
    Sogavare’s ancestry is the island of Choiseul, with closer links to Bougainville than the rest of the Solomon Islands.
    History suggests Sogavare will not remain as PM indefinitely despite the delayed elections.
    Australia is well placed to offer specific aide to the various islands within the Solomon Islands without any overtures of a new form of colonialism or monetary influence.
    The Solomon Islands are an uneasy alliance with many important characteristics which China will discover in time.
    Money will achieve so much. Respect a lot more!

  27. Thanks BK. You’re digging up articles I would miss.
    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/environment/2022/09/17/im-not-loyal-coal-the-hunter-readies-change#mtr

    I think this is the most important quote from the article.

    Whatever the future holds for export coal, the social legitimacy of transition in the Hunter will stand or fall on the region’s ability to create thousands of new jobs. The road to stable climate policy leads through regions like this.

    It almost shouldn’t need saying. But it resonates. It feels right. And it does bear repeating because the focus has to last. I think some governments have understood. For instance, in Qld, where I pay more attention, there has been a steady procession of renewable industry announcements in the regions, such as for Gladstone. Though bearing in mind how “announcements” have been given a bad name scepticism is there as well.

    This for me is the second important conclusion.

    But the alliance argues both state and federal governments will still need to directly fund “flagship projects” that will stabilise employment. Otherwise, says the AMWU’s Cory Wright, “we are going to hit a cliff”.

    It fits neatly with a focus on the regions.

  28. This talk of early elections in the UK has got me thinking about hung parliaments and possible PR 🙂

    I’ve just looked up the expenses and allowances for the House of Lords and I reckon it would finance 148 full-time parliamentarians (there are approx 790 members of the Lords)

    So, a 500 Member Lower House (elected with the Supplementary Vote) PLUS 200 Top Up members in the NZ-style MMP system with proportionality calculated using first preferences

    700 Members vs 650 now, +50 on the payroll

    Average constituency size c. 95000 vs the current 73000

    and, a 99 member Senate elected by regions so +99 on the payroll

    +149 total new payroll
    ________________________________________________________

    I’m now going to go away and calculate the Senators by region and how to elect them ..

  29. The new King has focussed my mind on the British Monarchy. Until today I hadn’t realised that Australia is considered as one of His Realms. (Realm is the same thing as Dominion, it just “sounds better”.) For example, King Charles III is separately King of Australia and King of Canada. The two are not the same, even though one man is both. We are His people. He rules over us, though the rights of the monarch were curtailed somewhat when Queen Elizabeth II took her oath in 1952. When Britain declared war on Germany in 1939 and the then King signed the declaration, He did so on Australia’s behalf as well. Queen Elizabeth II’s coronation oath promised to govern Australia in accordance with Australia’s rules and customs. We’ve yet to hear King Charles III speak His oath.

    At least that’s what I’m learning at the moment.

    EDIT: 1952 not 1953

  30. The border extension of the ACT will facilitate wiping out one of the very few known breeding sites of the Brown Songlark in the ACT. Just another small but pathetic chapter in the loss of ACT biodiversity under the Greens/Labor Government.

  31. Thank you, BK.

    What is not clear to me is why racist texts were not led as part of the evidence in the Rolfe murder case. One presumes that if attitudes help inform or form actions, then attitudes are germane.

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