The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
The extra public holiday was agreed by State Premiers and Opposition Leader Dutton: https://www.portnews.com.au/story/7897765/public-holiday-for-aussies-to-mark-queen/
The best thing would be for the Royals to go into a more rapid rotation.
Any one royal does not go too stale.
Every death = a day at the beach.
Win win.
The best thing Jeff Kennett did was remove Public Holidays.
nathsays:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 4:02 pm
The best thing Jeff Kennett did was remove Public Holidays.
Opening the door for Mr Bracks gets my vote.
Tomorrow would have been Show Day in pre-Kennett Victoria. I only ever once made it to the show on Show Day, even as a kid I was disappointed.
Covid time. An interesting graph of Excess mortality: Deaths from all causes compared to projection based on previous years . Aus and NZ may even have come out ahead over the pandemic period, with less deaths than expected. A compare and contrast with the let ‘er rip US.
Remember the great “opening up” for Xmas last year ? Take a look at the chart and see what that led to. a few weeks later !
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline?country=NZL~USA~AUS
HNN – the methodology used by the late Coalition Government in delivering its major projects, including Robodebt, budgets and the Covid vaccine acquisition and rollout:
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 6:32 am
From the previous thread:
Cronus:
I would say the Russian army of WWII shared one key similarity with the Ukrainian army of 2022, they were both fighting existential wars. The impact of that element on the psyche of the combatant is imo enormous. Real morale is not so much a matter of bravado (everyone is confident when the going is good) but rather of resilience, even fanaticism against all odds through a belief that what one is doing is indisputably right and necessary.
___________
“While I agree, the fact remains that during a large part of the Great Patriotic War the Red Army had – and used – troops stationed behind the frontline shock troops to shoot any soldiers that fled in the face of the enemy. Morale actually improved (eventually) overtime, as the Red Army because more effective. I recall one report from a Commissar expressing his amazement that ‘this time’ they didn’t even have to shoot any of their own.”
Thanks for that, I wasn’t aware of those details, I always enjoy learning something new everyday. I guess too of course there are exceptions to every rule, I’m not sure I’d be relying on a second success using this methodology in the 21st century (chuckles). I’m not prepared just yet in any case to write off the Russian incursion entirely (anything can happen) but there would have to be a very significant change in circumstances to alter the situation.
Momentum is another element that benefits Ukraine at the moment which is why it’s critical for Ukraine to maintain it for as long as possible without overreaching. Ukraine at least has the advantage of not needing to worry as much about outrunning their logistics.
British Electoral Politics
@electpoliticsuk
Scottish Independence Voting Intention:
NO: 48%
YES: 42%
Undecided: 10%
Via @DeltapollUK
Fieldwork after 8th September 2022
Steve777 at 4:16 pm
It would also be a scene if Joshy’s office before each budget.
Simon Katich says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 3:54 pm
B.S. Fairman @ #149 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 3:21 pm
Upnorth – The lack of holidays doesn’t really affect the Greeks. They just go at a slower pace.
What is the rush? They know they will inherit the earth.
中华人民共和国
Isn’t that the meek?
It’s been scientifically proven that if workers don’t have enough well-spaced public holidays throughout the year then their productivity decreases and their job satisfaction goes down.
The Russian mobilisation announcement is a bit vague. What is meant by a partial mobilisation? Is he just calling up the reserves or part of the reserves? I guess a full mobilisation would be all the population.
Either way, the reserves are not necessarily in tip top shape, with health conditions and alcoholism being major issues. I expect there will be wide spread attempts to escape from this by a lot of the people being called up. Maybe even internal violence in Russia.
Upnorth at 4:23 pm
That’ll be the Meeks, Macedonian Greeks……….. would ya believe.
Ray
My hot take (based on nothing) on Scotland is that there’s too much changing right now (Brexit, COVID-19, new PMs, new King…) and people don’t want even more changes – even if the change would help to eventually escape some of the chaos.
‘Michelle Donelan, the UK culture secretary, said her department was still “crunching the numbers” to calculate how many people had queued for hours in London to view the Queen’s coffin at Westminster Hall, but that she believed the figure to be about 250,000’
(Guardian) .. we were talking about this the other day, I thought it would have been more
‘The Queen’s funeral service in Westminster Abbey was watched by 29.2 million people on television in the UK, according to official audience data .. Less than half the UK population watched the live television broadcast – fewer than the 31 million who watched the climax of England’s Euro 2020 final defeat against Italy’
(Guardian)
I thought Scott Morrison was the Treasurer? 😉
The pervasive presence of Party commissars with carte blanche to shoot those lacking morale fibre was a factor. The commissars were highly motivated to keep the fighting going for as long as possible.
If they were captured they were shot.
Which goes to one of the well-known Bludger Universal Laws of Warfare.
ALWAYS accept surrendering troops with kindness and thereafter treat the POWs very, very well indeed.
Corollary: Make SURE that those opposite know you will treat them very well indeed.
poroti says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 4:28 pm
Upnorth at 4:23 pm
That’ll be the Meeks, Macedonian Greeks……….. would ya believe.
______
Shut up Big Nose. I’m trying to listen to SK.
This. There is a long border with Belorussia and Russia to their north. The more they extend to the east the longer that northern border becomes and the further their frontline troops are from Kyiv.
You’d like to think Ukraine is more prepared for an incursion from the north and the resources (or ability to move them) to deal with it. You’d like to think Russia doesnt have the resources to open up an new front. You’d like to think Ukraine and NATO intelligence would give them warning.
Ray
I do hope that ‘crunching the numbers’ does not mean feeding them all into a giant hopper and then dividing the total hopper weight by the weight of the average citizen?
With the Tories in charge…
Victorians will no longer be required to wear masks on public transport or rideshare vehicles from 11:59pm Thursday, bringing the rules into line with settings in other states.
Russian President Vladimir Putin says he has signed a decree on partial military mobilisation beginning on Wednesday, saying he was defending Russian territories and that the West wanted to destroy the country
Breaking ABC News
nath @ #169 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 4:02 pm
Oh! The meek! The meek inherit the earth. Oh that’s nice, innit.
nath says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 4:32 pm
poroti says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 4:28 pm
Upnorth at 4:23 pm
That’ll be the Meeks, Macedonian Greeks……….. would ya believe.
______
Shut up Big Nose. I’m trying to listen to SK.
中华人民共和国
Who are you calling big nose?
‘Liz Truss has said a new trade deal with the United States is unlikely in the “short to medium term” .. The government had previously promised a post-Brexit trade deal with the US by 2022’
(BBC)
Simon Katich says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 4:37 pm
nath @ #169 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 4:02 pm
poroti says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 4:28 pm
Upnorth at 4:23 pm
That’ll be the Meeks, Macedonian Greeks……….. would ya believe.
______
Shut up Big Nose. I’m trying to listen to SK.
Oh! The meek! The meek inherit the earth. Oh that’s nice, innit.
中华人民共和国
It’s about time they got something.
NSW normally has nine public holidays per annum (not counting the Bank Holiday and Easter Saturday/Sunday). Victoria has 11, including a day off for a horse race and another for a football match. Other Australian States and Territories have about ten public holidays a year.
To choose somewhere not infected by the Thatcherite/Reagan virus, France has 11, including a few Saint’s days. The world standard seems to be about ten public holidays per annum, which is what we have in Australia.
‘Simon Katich says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 4:34 pm
Momentum is another element that benefits Ukraine at the moment which is why it’s critical for Ukraine to maintain it for as long as possible without overreaching.
This. There is a long border with Belorussia and Russia to their north. The more they extend to the east the longer that northern border becomes and the further their frontline troops are from Kyiv.
You’d like to think Ukraine is more prepared for an incursion from the north and the resources (or ability to move them) to deal with it. You’d like to think Russia doesnt have the resources to open up an new front. You’d like to think Ukraine and NATO intelligence would give them warning.’
——————————————-
1. We had Bludger experts excoriating Biden for predicting the Russians would invade! That said, as you say, NATO would be sure to pick up Russian concentrations and to let Ukraine know about them. If the concentrations are sufficiently concentrated a HEIMARs round would be arriving to kill a few Russians and to let the rest know that they stick out like balls on a dog. Profoundly bad for morale.
2. The troops per km of the front must by now be vanishing small. There cannot possibly be a continuously manned front by either side. Open flanks everywhere is a scary thing if you are a routed commander trying to stabilize a front.
3. A discontinuously manned ‘front’ gives the advantage to the side that has super intelligence, is more mobile, agile, motivated and which has superior quality field grade officers and NCOs.
4. BUT it also creates a massive risk of over-extending and copping it in the neck…
In a nut shell, Putin’s states that Russia can invade a country, occupy several cities, declare them to be part of Russia and then threaten the world with nuclear war if it disagrees.
It’s a bit of a challenge to any idea of an international rule of law.
Socrates says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 7:07 am
Cronus/AE
I think one important difference between the Russian army now and the Soviet army in 1942/43 is leadership.
After the 1938 officer purges the Soviet army performed as badly as now invading Finland in 1939 and was not much better when Germany invaded them in 1941. But Stalin backed away from his political direction and let surviving experienced Soviet officers take over, even bringing in some from the far east like Zhukov. So by 1942/43 the Soviet army was competently led.
Whereas now the trend is the opposite. Putin has sacked any generals who disagree with him and most senior positions are held by other ex KGB buddies. These people are experts at internal security, not military strategy. This shows in the ridiculous initial invasion plan, where they spread out far too much.
The corruption now is also much worse, and that must be a factor too.
——————————————————————————————-
+1 on all those points imo. I too have been somewhat surprised at the apparently atrocious planning, poor leadership, failure to use combined all-arms warfare and tendency to repeat mistakes and fail to adapt methodologies by Russia. The concept of sending internal security forces in place of trained troops is quite bewildering.
FWIW (and at the risk of sounding as though I’m blowing my own trumpet which is not my intention), following US Army Staff College, I was immediately selected by the US as one of only two international students to attend the School of Advanced Military Studies (SAMS) to undertake deeper level strategic planning. These folk are colloquially referred to as Jedi Knights. I was extremely disappointed when a short-sighted Australian system decided it was more important that I return to Australia to carry a General’s bags rather than improve our interoperable planning capability. At least I had the comfort of knowing I had the capability.
Deep level strategic planning is a very interesting and misunderstood skill that involves not only military capabilities but encompasses military, economic and social implications as well. It is war-gaming at its best and includes lesser-known intelligence sources and incorporates a real team environment in providing numerous courses of actions and outcomes for a variety of mostly military scenarios. It is this skill that seems to have gone missing in Russia’s Ukrainian military misadventure thus far at least.
‘Ray (UK) says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 4:39 pm
‘Liz Truss has said a new trade deal with the United States is unlikely in the “short to medium term” .. The government had previously promised a post-Brexit trade deal with the US by 2022’
(BBC)’
———————–
It looks like NI may be the deal breaker, ATM.
I heard a report today that the US has encouraged Truss to backtrack on her threat to undermine the Brexit Agreement by walking away from some NI aspects of it.
The North Melbourne football club has released a statement following historical allegations against its incoming coach Alastair Clarkson, which were made public today.
The club confirms Clarkson will “delay the start of his tenure” to allow him time to participate in an investigation announced by the AFL. He was due to begin at the club on 1 November.
________
“delay the start of his tenure” – that’s a fine turn of phrase/
One thing about NSW Public holidays is that they’re not that well distributed:
– Four in just over a month from Christmas to Australia Day
– Three more in March/April (when the weather on the coast is usually crap)
– King’s Birthday in June (East Coast Low season)
– Only Labour Day (early October) between June and Christmas
‘BK says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 4:47 pm
The North Melbourne football club has released a statement following historical allegations against its incoming coach Alastair Clarkson, which were made public today.
The club confirms Clarkson will “delay the start of his tenure” to allow him time to participate in an investigation announced by the AFL. He was due to begin at the club on 1 November.
________
“delay the start of his tenure” – that’s a fine turn of phrase/’
======================================
I hereby announce that I am delaying the start of my tenure in the afterlife.
Um, doesn’t this ‘partial military mobilisation’ mean Putin is finally admitting it’s a war?
The European currencies have taken a big dive on the Forex markets since the Russian announcement. Euro is down about 0.6% and the Pound is at a 37 year low.
I think it sounds like it’s actually Putin who wants to start WW3. 🙂
‘The West want to destroy (Russia)? Lol, Vladimir.
Could somebody please tell me again what the C+ plug in is called in the app shop? Thanks. 🙂
nath says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 7:53 am
BK says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 7:49 am
nath
And I wonder where Jeff Kennett sits in all this.
____
It’s clear that every club has to have a review to find out how far this shit has spread. I am actually in shock that Hawthorn would demand relationships end, demand terminations etc. Everyone involved in this needs to have their careers ended.
They should not be involved in sport and especially with young people. Let them work in a warehouse or office, anywhere but near young people.
—————————————————————————————-
+1 nath, if confirmed, this is beyond unacceptable.
C@t, “PB Comments Plugin”?
Rakali @ #180 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 4:42 pm
To a certain extent, any nation can threaten the world with anything it likes. The main thing is to not be cowed by such threats.
C@tmomma @ #188 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 4:56 pm
The ironic thing being that after what Russia has done in Ukraine the West would probably be fully justified in wanting that. Or at a minimum in wanting that at least as far as Putin’s version of Russia is involved.
I think Putin is worried about falling out of a high level window.
Why does BludgerTrack still have the swing based on the 2019 election? Please update BludgerTrack to show swings from the 2022 election because there isn’t a 5% swing against the Coalition like the last BludgerTrack update says.
The fundamental questions in relation to whether or not Australia should become a republic are these: How will a head of state be chosen? Will they be elected? By Whom? And how could they be removed from office? By whom? What powers will they have? Will the respective powers and tenure of the House and Senate remain unchanged? Or will they also have to be changed?
These questions go to the functioning of the Parliament and to the stability and legitimacy of the political system. It’s highly unlikely that voters will embrace a republic unless these questions can be answered to their satisfaction.
King or Queen Nong from London might be the Head of State. That’s not a problem as long as they don’t try to exert any actual influence. They can play dress-ups for as long as they like.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/21/resolve-strategic-labor-39-coalition-32-greens-10-open-thread/comment-page-4/#comment-3981433
In Liz we don’t ever Truss
TGA has a post saying bold, cocky and mission unaccomplished
I can’t see the Kremlin putting up with Putin much longer.
Hey Cronus! Where are you now?
C@t
That’s the thing about paranoids, sometimes people really are out to get them. There has been a long standing expression of the desirability of breaking Russia into about 4 regions among some serious US groups/thinkers. ‘decolonize’ or sometimes ‘decommunize’ are the words they use. It has been getting quite a work out in recent months but it is not new and has been around for decades.
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/21/resolve-strategic-labor-39-coalition-32-greens-10-open-thread/comment-page-4/#comment-3981467
The well-being of the people being the highest law
The rule of statutory law, rather than special/ common law
One person one vote
Separation of powers
Nothing religious – pay tax and a levy – with public money (especially schools)
I am fine with a royal, rich enough to not need to steal from the people
Just not the colonial Union Jack on the flag
TRC/ CtG plus SWF/ VTP (not race based)
I’d reduce Club Fed to may be five ministries, have the states do the rest, support by upping GST, death duties for assets over $99M, lower income and payroll and property tax
Rotate state gov through GG
Rotate state/ territory premiers/ first ministers through PM
Etc
Governance that includes fixing through a fICAC/ CIC, campaign finance reform, useful FoI, mandatory and binding referendums …