The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
Here’s a view of the mobilisation from inside Russia from a blogger who describes himself as a former Soviet propaganda executive:
” We need to keep the Ukrainian front from collapsing until the Europeans break. Partial mobilization will provide the SMO with the required manpower to hold defensive positions. It also assures streamlining of the institutions and industries inside Russia in keeping with wartime reality.
Also, it assures our propaganda can deliver the great news to our public. The SMO has been a clear success!”
https://www.quora.com/Putin-announced-partial-mobilisation-what-will-happen-now
He regularly writes about Russian history, society and current affairs. I’m not in much of a position to judge his accuracy or credibility but I find him interesting.
This is the first time Russia has mobilised its military since WW2!
rusia must be not going to well no body will acsept these referendums as legitamate
Steve777,
As a good propagandist,he predicates all his assertions on Russian success in the latest endeavours.
… This will happen and then that will happen..
But what if it doesn’t work out that way?
Aaron newton,
Those referendums are obviously going to be dodgy.
”But what if it doesn’t work out that way?”
The usual when plans come unstuck – move the goalposts.
Obviously the most important thing is, what would nuclear war mean for interest rates and housing prices?
Putin annexing all those Ukrainian provinces beyond the Donbass is absurd. Russia does not control 100% of any one of them. This map shows each province and the Ukrainian controlled proportion in yellow. Putin wouldn’t be doing this unless he knew he was losing.
It will take months for Putin’s even partial mobilisation to take effect and get troops to the front. In the mean time I expect the Ukrainians will redouble efforts to take more land.
But the obvious danger is that Putin will use the annexation as an excuse to escalate attacks upon Ukraine. Putin may be losing but this is still dangerous.
Germany has nationalised it’s largest utility company, Uniper!
Socrates at 9.36 pm
Yes, absurd all around. If the press conference was early in the morning it was worse than the Friday arvo Canberra drop.
The dangerous point on the map and in the war is where the green bit is narrowest S of the black line, where the biggest nuclear plant in Europe is.
”Putin may be losing but this is still dangerous.”
Maybe “Putin is losing so this is very dangerous” might be a better rendition.
Steve777 @ #252 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 9:10 pm
I don’t know how to read the guy either. But he does sound a bit like the former Wayne.
I had assumed that the green areas on the map were water – am I right?
Cat
“ This is the first time Russia has mobilised its military since WW2!”
I suspect there is an element of bluff in this and the annexations by “refeenda” to try to stop western support and freeze Fighting on current boundaries, before Ukraine recaptures any more territory.
The mobilisation will take months to take effect, by which time it is winter. Russia has been so desperate for manpower they have sent their training battalions to the front line. They also closed down a lot of their mobilisation apparatus in previous years. That means the mobilised troops will be hard to weld into new units.
Looks like the GoT sequel/prequel House of the Dragon is a hit. Expect more dragons.
Italy’s largest refinery is owned by Russia’s Lukoil. I wonder what the new Ultra Nationalalist leader, who is expected to win the election, will do about that? The EU is working on new sanctions against Russia, what if Italy has its supply of oil cut off from Russia for agreeing to the new sanctions? What if it defies the EU and sides with Russia?
Steve777 says:
Wednesday, September 21, 2022 at 9:49 pm
I had assumed that the green areas on the map were water – am I right?
_____
No. that’s Rand Mcnally. They wear hats on their feet and hamburgers eat people
Soc,
Ukraine is determined to keep pushing ahead. So the new troops may become stranded assets for Putin. Not even cannon fodder as they continue to be simply overwhelmed.
Dr D
Yes I understand Ukraine has been trying to do a full shutdown of Zaphorizia for some time. But as with Fukushima it takes weeks for a shutdown of these old Gen I style reactors to fully cool, so there will be a risk of a meltdown till then. Russian bombardments in the mean time won’t help.
Surely if you were Ukraine this would only make you speed up your attacks?
This might also galvanise further EU action. The last thing they want is another radioactive cloud drifting west. Putin can’t have many cards left to play if he is willing to act this desperately.
”I don’t know how to read the guy either. But he does sound a bit like the former Wayne.”
I read that quote as ironic – that’s what the propaganda says, that sort of thing. I don’t think that he believes it or is trying to convince us. I think that he loves Russia, that he now holds Communism in disdain. He seems to be very careful what he says about the current regime. If he’s still a propagandist, he’s a lot clever than your typical Newscorp columnist.
Dr Doolittle @ #260 Wednesday, September 21st, 2022 – 9:44 pm
https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Ukraine/@47.5096467,34.6146645,23904m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x40d1d9c154700e8f:0x1068488f64010!8m2!3d48.379433!4d31.1655799
Steve777, makes sense. (It took me a while to warm to Wayne.)
On the 7.30 report, I missed it but I’m glad to hear they are giving up on Son of Collins. It is simply too late, a distraction.
Before I would have said we should either build the French SSNs, starting with four in France straight away, then 8 in Adelaide, or the zuK ones if they can start quickly.
Now I would say we should order both the 4 French SSNs and 3 more AWDs to be built straight away either way. We have stalled too long.
We should focus the Defense budget on what is available quickly and affordably. Ironically, the Ukraine crisis now gives Albo an excuse to ditch any part of AUKUS that is too costly or distant. We should still move to building SSNs, but build a latger number of the cheaper French sub with US combat system to keep USN happy.
IMO we should also send more Bushmasters and artillery to Ukraine soon as per Mick Ryan’s comments in the SMH earlier in the week. This is not the time to “escalate” western support of Ukraine in terms of weapon type. But it is time for “more of the same”.
Like wipe out man.
.
Australia’s central bank on Wednesday said its equity had been wiped out by losses suffered on pandemic-era bond buying,
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Michele Bullock said the bank had taken a mark-to-market valuation loss on its bond holdings of A$44.9 billion ($30.02 billion) in 2021/22.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-central-bank-has-equity-wiped-out-by-billions-bond-losses-2022-09-21/
Poroti
“ Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Michele Bullock said the bank had taken a mark-to-market valuation loss on its bond holdings of A$44.9 billion ($30.02 billion) in 2021/22.”
What?? How? Defending what policy?
Why was there no mention of that in Josh’s April budget?! He must have known. That is on top of the $80 billion deficit for 2022-2023!
I’ve not commented on submarines or defence matters more generally – it’s all way beyond my expertise and pay-grade. French, American or British? Nuclear or conventional? How many of the things do we need? 6? 8? More? Could we spend our defence (giga-)dollar more effectively on other acquisitions instead? No idea.
And what are we defending against? The bad guys of course. Who are they? Potentially our Northern neighbours, including a certain East Asian power that shall remain nameless. Anyone else? Hopefully someone has a good idea and is planning accordingly. Is it a worry that we are being defended by equipment we can’t make and has a decades long timeframe to acquire? Hopefully the subs when they arrive are unsinkable.
And what is our strategy? Are we aspiring to be a mini-USA? Probably not. Are we a porcupine / echidna? Or a junior partner in the Ango-Empire? The vision of AUKUS seems to be the latter.
Be all that as it may, it’s clear that our Defence acquisition policy is a God-almighty mess and we’ve been stuffing around getting nowhere for a decade. I just hope that a 40-50 year old sub is more reliable than a 40-50 year old car.
EDIT: Re Socrates @10:01 – to the extent that I can judge, that makes a lot of sense.
More on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, a few minutes ago:
“ Before I would have said we should either build the French SSNs, starting with four in France straight away, then 8 in Adelaide, or the zuK ones if they can start quickly.”
I dont think France can build us ‘4 straight away’ because their last Suffren class hull was only laid down this year, and they are due to cut their first steel for their SSBN replacement class next year. However, naval Group is planning to only start building those SSBN’s at a drum beat of 1 every 5 years. This means that maximum of two SSNB hulls will be contruxcted in their building hall at any given time. By my calculations France could build us two SSNs this decade in Cherbourg – starting in 2024/5 and 2027 (so deliveries to the RAN would’ve be due in around 2034 and 35) and another two next decade, with hulls laid down arounds 2033 and 2035. In addition naval Grouip cab build modules for other subs to be assembled in Australia (with an increasing number of components manufactured in Australia as the build capability matures). I reckon we could have 8 French SSN’s in service by around 2043, and a full 12 by the middle of the century.
However the time of maximum danger, vis-a-vis America (and deputy dog volunteering us all for front line suicide missions) versus the ChiComms may likely be by late this decade, so SSNs are not going to help. Extra AWDs may also be acquired in time. Modifying the Collins class to take Tomahawk or french naval Cruise Missiles could be done in that timeframe. Acquiring missile defence shields for our key onshore assets like pine gap could probably be done in that timeframe. Not much else though …
AE
I was only referring to naval assets. I would agree that we should fit Tomahawk and/or the NSSM and LRSSM to our existing ships and aircraft ASAP.
In the short term we should focus on missiles and aircraft, which are quick to acquire. The remaining 24 F35s is an obvious purchase.
In the medium term ships and subs still matter a lot in terms of protecting Australia and shipping routes to Australia. Subs are critical because none of our ships could go anywhere near a Chinese squadron without getting sunk. Hence building the AWDs and French SSNs.
Re defense and subs. I have a solution!
We should just seek out a joint ownership / tasking arrangement of a pair of US nuclear subs. Half Aussie Crew half Yank, If the CIA and Defense can share pine gap, then a nuclear sub and it’s taskings should be doable.
Obviously we’d probably want to avoid one with nuclear missiles and just use it for the Surveillance / SF stuff around the region.
In addition to this instant capability speed up, we also go and by a set of small subs for norther waters work. French, german whatever we can get quick. And then we just wait pay the fucking massive bill.
Honestly I don’t know why we don’t have sub pens built into the bottom of large tanker ships so we can do sustainment at sea and avoid the drama of needing to sail from WA to get int the deep water.
BTW this was done in the cold war by the yanks.
But seriously, and I mean seriously, 10-20 road mobile ICBM’s that we could just move about the north and hide in the desert would be a pretty good deterrent as well.
It’s all good to have submarines but what are we going to use them for?
Steve
Good questions. These are only my opinions. For the strategy bit, I recommend Hugh White’s “How to Defend Australia”. White recommends Australia being able to defend itself without reliance on USA using a lot of “area denial” weapons such as aircraft, long range missiles (air, ship, sub or land based) and subs, since shops are now too easy to sink.A large army is a waste of time assuming we have given up on pointless mid east wars.
“ And what are we defending against?”
White identifies China now and India and Indonesia as long term risks.
“And what is our strategy?”
White recommends Echidna. The ADF wants to be AUKUS junior partner.
“I just hope that a 40-50 year old sub is more reliable than a 40-50 year old car.”
Sadly no they are not, old subs don’t just stop, they sink. This is why Collins LOTE is a bad idea.
Rudd thought we needed 12 subs in 2009, acquired by 2030. The Libs dragged that out to first 2035 then 2050. White recommends even more (16 to 24, equivalent to 12 SSNs). China has 60+subs. North Korea 40+ India 17, all building more.
Socrates @11:04. Interesting – thank you.
“For this reason, the oppressed civil society in Russia has replaced the term ‘mobilization’ with the word ‘mogilization’,” the president said. “Mogila” (могила) is the Russian term for grave.
https://news.err.ee/1608723295/estonian-president-putin-conceding-defeat-in-ukraine-with-mobilization
Election Maps UK
@ElectionMapsUK
2h
How has the polling average changed since Liz Truss became Prime Minister?
LAB: +0.3%, now 42.0%
CON: +0.9%, now 31.8%
LDM: -1.0%, now 10.6%
GRN: -0.1%, now 5.4%
RFM: -0.2%, now 2.8%
I see mention of a map re the war situation in Ukraine. Has anyone who thinks the Russians are shelling the power station checked it out. The Russian control the power station. They control the south bank of the river for either side. Yet apparently they are shelling themselves.
On the other hand the Ukrainian forces are on the north bank, within artillery range and have accused the Russians of using the plant as cover for military assets. Could it be more likely the Ukrainians are shelling the Russians and occasionally they get unexpectedly close to the plant.
p.s. the plant is not in the Ukrainian held city of the same name
For those that were discussing solar powered cars earlier there is this.
https://thedriven.io/2022/09/16/breakthrough-lightyear-0-makes-automotive-history-with-record-aerodynamics/
Not a good day for the Trump family it appears.
Bryon says:
Thursday, September 22, 2022 at 1:07 am
“I see mention of a map re the war situation in Ukraine. Has anyone who thinks the Russians are shelling the power station checked it out. The Russian control the power station. They control the south bank of the river for either side. Yet apparently they are shelling themselves.
On the other hand the Ukrainian forces are on the north bank, within artillery range and have accused the Russians of using the plant as cover for military assets. Could it be more likely the Ukrainians are shelling the Russians and occasionally they get unexpectedly close to the plant.”
So here’s the problem with that analysis, it is the Ukraine that has most to lose from any accident (intentional or otherwise) at their nuclear plant so it’s highly unlikely they would take such a nuclear risk nor be willing to damage or destroy such critical infrastructure that might take years to rebuild. Furthermore, Ukrainian fire to date in this war has mostly been accurate and effective, not at all haphazard thanks to high level US intelligence and satellite targeting, especially of a stationary site. I submit therefore that the comment appears to be from a pro-Russian bot.
‘Putin Ally Dies After Falling Down Stairs on Day of Russia Mobilization’
‘The former head of the Moscow Aviation Institute has died after falling down “several flights of stairs,” the institute reported Wednesday .. Scientist Anatoly Gerashchenko, 72, “fell from a great height,” according to the university, which described his death in the Russian capital as an accident’
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ally-dies-falling-down-stairs-day-russia-mobilization-1744944
Prior to the war, I made clear that I knew of no leader that would site an army force of up to 200k on a foreign border in Winter for months with no intent to use said force. Of course Putin subsequently invaded Ukraine.
I venture the following opinion: No leader would mobilise a civilian reserve military force of approximately 300k previously trained soldiers without intending to use this force. It costs a great deal, impacts the economy (not insignificantly) and in this case signals to the Russian public that the Special Military Operation (SMO) is not proceeding as planned therefore requiring a more-than-doubling in size.
The risks attached to this signal (as indicated by the filling of planes out of Russia) has many facets but at the minimum, it tells Russians at all levels of society that their lives are about to change for the worst, regardless of station. The question is how will they respond? I suspect the internal security forces will have their hands full in the coming weeks and the propaganda machine will go into overdrive in an attempt to increase patriotism. As was the case with the initial invasion, there is no going back for Putin because failure means disgrace at the very least.
Just as an aside, note too that eyes should not be taken off the China/Taiwan scenario. It’s by no means implausible that Russia and China might jointly be seeking to stretch the US in two different directions (double trouble, think WWII re Germany and Japan) at the same time. Strategically this makes sense if in fact China does have genuine military designs on Taiwan. This is of course a worst case scenario.
Ray (UK) says:
Thursday, September 22, 2022 at 2:33 am
‘Putin Ally Dies After Falling Down Stairs on Day of Russia Mobilization’
‘The former head of the Moscow Aviation Institute has died after falling down “several flights of stairs,” the institute reported Wednesday .. Scientist Anatoly Gerashchenko, 72, “fell from a great height,” according to the university, which described his death in the Russian capital as an accident’
https://www.newsweek.com/putin-ally-dies-falling-down-stairs-day-russia-mobilization-1744944
—————————————————————————————-
So many accidents, so many coincidences. I suspect many more such occurrences over the coming weeks. No wonder the planes out of Moscow are filling up, it’s as dangerous outside of the army as it is inside.
Good mourning bludgers.
Thanks to whoever it was that posted the Monthly article by Jonathan Green. Such a sobering read. I also saw Eddie Betts speaking about his experiences, most recently an elderly couple asking life guards at a pool to get him and his kids to get out of the pool because they were frightening their granddaughter. Who would do that FFS? Just imagine the self entitlement it takes to just say the words out loud to someone else.
I had to google ‘spit hoods’ because I’d never heard the term before. Incredible that these things are used in this day and age!
https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/09/21/resolve-strategic-labor-39-coalition-32-greens-10-open-thread/comment-page-5/#comment-3981622
Sounds like walking/ driving/ breathing while … isn’t just an Americanism.
Grogs piece in the Guardian on inflation and the RBA is v interesting. Confirmation that corps are using inflation to increase profit margins which is increasing inflation and forcing the RBAs hand to punish lower income people.
Great system.
The attorney general of New York state has filed a civil fraud lawsuit against Donald Trump and three of his children involved in the family real-estate business, for falsely inflating his net worth by billions in order to enrich himself and secure favorable loans.
Announcing the suit in New York on Wednesday, Letitia James also said referrals had been made to federal prosecutors and the Internal Revenue Service – a move sure to anger the former US president and increase consternation among his inner circle about the depth of his legal predicament.
Trump, Donald Trump Jr, Ivanka Trump and Eric Trump were all deposed during the New York investigation, which began when Trump was president and lasted for three years.
The lawsuit seeks to bar all four Trumps from serving as executives in New York, and to prohibit the Trump Organization from acquiring any commercial real estate or receiving loans from New York-based entities for five years.
Announcing the suit, James said: “The complaint demonstrates that Donald Trump falsely inflated his net worth by billions of dollars to unjustly enrich himself and to cheat the system, thereby cheating all of us. He did this with the help of the other defendants.”
James said her office uncovered evidence of federal criminal violations including issuing false statements to financial institutions and bank fraud, and had referred the matter to the southern district of New York and the IRS.
The suit also seeks to recover at least $250m and to bar the Trump Organization chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, and comptroller, Jeffrey McConney, from serving in top roles of any company in New York.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/21/trump-new-york-investigation-ivanka-donald-eric
Premier Daniel Andrews is on track for another crushing election victory with a survey showing voters will abandon the Liberal Party fearing a change of government in the face of a crumbling healthcare system and skyrocketing living costs.
Labor’s primary vote is at 42 per cent, just 1 percentage point lower than it was at the “Danslide” victory of four years ago, while the Liberals’ primary has plummeted to a new low of 28 per cent, down seven percentage points since 2018 when the Coalition lost a swag of blue-ribbon seats.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-heading-for-danslide-2-as-voters-turn-away-from-guy-s-liberals-20220921-p5bjrc.html
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday doubled down on its most aggressive economic tightening campaign in three decades, raising interest rates by another three-fourths of a percentage point and pushing borrowing costs to the highest level since the Great Recession in order to help temper the nation’s stubbornly high inflation—even as experts worry the hawkish tightening could drive the economy into a recession.
Funny how Putin never falls down the stairs or out of windows. 😐
Honestly, the man is losing the plot. He’s becoming blatant now, all subtlety is gone. And that’s when leaders usually blow it big time.
Simon Katichsays:
Thursday, September 22, 2022 at 5:59 am
Good mourning bludgers.
_____________________
Beautiful mourning here in Vic.
Up early and out in the bush already up past Ballarat. Final coffee before starting up the metal detector.
Thanks for the day off Albo.