The Age/Herald has published the second of what hopefully looks like being a regular monthly federal polling series, showing Labor down three points on the primary vote 39%, the Coalition up four to 32%, the Greens down two to 10%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party steady on 2%. Based on preferences from the May election, this suggests a Labor two-party lead of 57-43, in from 61-39 last time. Anthony Albanese’s combined good plus very good rating is down one to 60% and his poor plus very poor rating is up two to 24%. Peter Dutton is respectively down two to 28% and up three to 40%, and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed from 55-17 to 53-19.
The poll also finds 54-46 support for retaining the monarchy over becoming a republic in the event of a referendum, reversing a result from January. The late Queen’s “time as Australia’s head of state” was rated as good by 75% and poor by 5%, while David Hurley’s tenure as Governor-General was rated good by 30% and poor by 13%, with the remainder unsure or neutral. Forty-five per cent expect that King Charles III will perform well compared with 14% for badly. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1607.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly release from Essential Research, which features the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, though still nothing on voting intention. Its new method for gauging leadership invites respondents introduced last month is to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, categorising scores of seven to ten as positive, zero to three as negative and four to six as neutral. Contra Resolve Strategic, this has Albanese’s positive rating up three to 46%, his negative rating down six to 17% and his neutral rating up three to 31%. Dutton’s is down three on positive to 23%, steady on negative at 34% and up four on negative to 34%.
The poll also gauged support for a republic, and its specification of an “Australian head of state” elicited a more positive response than for Resolve Strategic or Roy Morgan, with support at 43% and opposition at 37%, although this is the narrowest result from the pollster out of seven going back to January 2017, with support down one since June and opposition up three. When asked if King Charles III should be Australia’s head of state, the sample came down exactly 50-50. The late Queen posthumously records a positive rating of 71% and a negative rating of 8% and Prince William comes in at 64% and 10%, but the King’s ratings of 44% and 21% are only slightly better than those of Prince Harry at 42% and 22%. The September 22 public holiday has the support of 61%, but 48% consider the media coverage excessive, compared with 42% for about right and 10% for insufficient. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1075.
The weekly Roy Morgan federal voting intention result, as related in threadbare form in its weekly update videos, gives Labor a lead of 54.5-45.5, out from 53.5-46.5 and the pollster’s strongest result for Labor since the election.
Finally, some resolution to recent by-election coverage:
• Saturday’s by-election for the Western Australian state seat of North West Central produced a comfortable win for Nationals candidate Merome Beard in the absence of a candidate from Labor, who polled 40.2% in the March 2021 landslide and fell 1.7% short after preferences. Beard leads Liberal candidate Will Baston with a 9.7% margin on the two-candidate preferred count, although the Nationals primary vote was scarcely changed despite the absence of Labor, while the Liberals were up from an abysmal 7.9% to 26.7%. The by-elections other remarkable feature was turnout – low in this electorate at the best of times, it currently stands at 42.2% of the enrolment with a mere 4490 formal votes cast, down from 73.8% and 7741 formal votes in 2021, with likely only a few hundred postals yet to come. Results have not been updated since Sunday, but continue to be tracked on my results page.
• A provisional distribution of preferences recorded Labor candidate Luke Edmunds winning the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Pembroke by a margin of 13.3%, out from 8.7% when the electorate last went to polls in May 2019. Labor’s primary vote was down from 45.2% to 39.5% in the face of competition from the Greens, who polled a solid 19.3% after declining to contest last time, while the Liberals were up to 28.8% from 25.3% last time, when a conservative independent polled 18.4%.
Welldont know whiy putin thought most ucranians wanted to be under rusia this invattion was planed since 2014 crimea the west in paerticular the wrepublicans were stupid to trust putin when he made his feelings clear years a go no body will acsept the referendum as legitamit aparrt from putin suporters
Morning bludgers
Absolutely pissing down here and blowing a gale , but the dogs are loving the excuse to be inside and on the couch.
Ironically enough I notice that there hasn’t been a single mention of the queen or any related royal matters on the ABC this morning, on this supposed day of mourning. I’m glad to see the back of it all tbh (although there’s obviously a coronation to come)
Wish I was out on the boat, but the wind and large swell most definitely says no. Still, beats being at work!
I was going to fly up to Brisbane for an extra long weekend, but then remembered it’s school holidays so best to avoid travel.
I’ve noticed that finally the queen is fading from the news cycle and news presenters are wearing colours again. This isn’t a day of mourning for me, but just a public holiday and a day off from work.
I am concerned though as to whether we will continue to get the queen’s birthday public holiday. Or does it become the king’s birthday?
Confessions at 7:13 am
Locked in and ready to go……..
A listing of the published Public holiday dates in Western Australia 2022 to 2024.
.
.
King’s Birthday # Monday 26 September 2022 Monday 25 September 2023 Monday 23 September 2024
https://www.wa.gov.au/service/employment/workplace-agreements/public-holidays-western-australia
poroti:
Even the one for next Monday! That is quick.
The demographic balance between Latvians and Russians is already delicate.
Finally! Dead, buried and cremated.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers – and a special ping to Cronus in Venice!
Sumeyya Ilanbay writes that Daniel Andrews is on track for another crushing election victory with a survey showing voters will abandon the Liberal Party fearing a change of government in the face of a crumbling healthcare system and skyrocketing living costs. Danslide 2?
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-heading-for-danslide-2-as-voters-turn-away-from-guy-s-liberals-20220921-p5bjrc.html
Phil Coorey writes that Finance Minister Katy Gallagher has been forced to emphasise that the budget remains mired in deficit, as she faces calls for more spending prompted by revelations of a $50 billion windfall. NEWSFLASH! It’s been in structural deficit since 2007 since Howard and Costello panicked.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/we-re-still-in-deficit-minister-stares-down-spending-calls-20220921-p5bjpx
The treasurer needs to start a serious and genuinely upfront national conversation about the underlying structural budget deficit challenges Australians must confront, says the AFR’s editorial that wonders if the budget strategy will add up to higher taxes.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/does-labor-s-budget-strategy-add-up-to-higher-taxes-20220920-p5bjg9
The Albanese government is playing with fire by expanding multi-employer bargaining and potentially increasing strike rights, says the AFR’s John Kehoe.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/why-labor-s-key-wages-change-is-bad-for-jobs-inflation-20220919-p5bj84
Workers did not cause Australia’s inflation woes. But they will be the ones who sacrifice the most, argues Greg Jericho who paints a dismal picture.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/sep/22/workers-did-not-cause-australias-inflation-woes-but-they-will-be-the-ones-to-sacrifice
Former deputy prime ministers Barnaby Joyce and Michael McCormack did not always know if the “deep dive” policy meetings they attended were actually meetings of Scott Morrison’s secretive cabinet subcommittee. McCormack told Guardian Australia it was a “regular process” to have stakeholders including outer ministry colleagues, officials and “captains of industry” attend meetings in the cabinet room.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/22/former-deputy-pms-unsure-which-meetings-were-of-scott-morrisons-secretive-cabinet-committee
Nick McKenzie reports that a former Australian special forces soldier who allegedly confessed to executing an Afghan prisoner in October 2012 is now the target of a major war crimes inquiry, and was stopped at the airport where his phone was seized on return from an overseas trip in April.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/former-australian-commando-faces-afghanistan-war-crimes-investigation-20220920-p5bjkv.html
Shane Wright tells us that analysts are increasingly concerned the Reserve Bank’s interest rate rises will hit vulnerable home buyers and drag down the economy next year.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/recession-risks-grow-as-home-buyers-endure-rate-rises-20220921-p5bjtg.html
New South Wales will seek an exemption from its obligations to deliver the final stage of the Murray-Darling Basin plan, a move that could leave the environment short-changed millions of litres of water. NSW will not meet a June 2024 deadline to deliver the last 25% of water savings of the plan, to be achieved through water-saving projects. It is also behind on other key elements of the plan, explains Anne Davies.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/sep/22/murray-darling-basin-plan-on-the-brink-after-nsw-says-it-cannot-meet-water-savings-deadline
Access to affordable housing is no longer available to many. If we don’t act now, this injustice will spill over into something darker, warns Margot Saville.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/the-fair-go-has-gone-and-stage-one-of-the-revolution-has-happened-20220920-p5bjmi.html
While much has been discussed about electing an Australian president, more consideration is required before moving forward as a republic, writes Professor John Quiggin.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-pros-and-cons-of-an-australian-president,16789
NSW Labor frontbencher Tania Mihailuk’s late-night attack on Canterbury-Bankstown mayor Khal Asfour has resurrected years-old corruption woes within the party less than six months from the next state election.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/late-night-internal-attack-derails-labor-preselection-20220921-p5bk06.html
The SMH editorial says Ayres cannot dodge responsibility for his role in the Barilaro affair.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/ayres-cannot-dodge-responsibility-for-his-role-in-the-barilaro-affair-20220921-p5bjz6.html
A whistleblower who exposed lax money laundering compliance in NSW poker machine venues will spend the last months of his life defending a legal action brought by ClubsNSW, writes Harriett Alexander.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/i-ve-nothing-to-lose-dying-whistleblower-sued-by-clubsnsw-20220921-p5bjsr.html
Nick McKenzie reports that a former Australian special forces soldier who allegedly confessed to executing an Afghan prisoner in October 2012 is now the target of a major war crimes inquiry, and was stopped at the airport where his phone was seized on return from an overseas trip in April.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/former-australian-commando-faces-afghanistan-war-crimes-investigation-20220920-p5bjkv.html
Michaela Whitbourn and David Estcourt tell us that Crikey says it will seek to rely on new provisions in NSW defamation law, including a serious harm test and public interest defence in its fight with Murdoch.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/crikey-to-test-new-public-interest-defence-in-murdoch-defamation-fight-20220921-p5bjox.html
Stephen Bartholomeusz explains how the risks in riskier debt are rising. He says, “Since the financial crisis, the central bankers have kept the tides from flowing out. That has now changed, and we may see over the next year or so who’s been exposed by the sea change in credit conditions. It may not be a pretty sight.”
https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/the-risks-in-riskier-debt-are-rising-20220921-p5bjpw.html
Prince William has cited his grandmother as he urged people to remain resolute about tackling climate change, saying it was an objective the Queen would have wanted. Latika Bourke reports that, in his first official engagement since the burial of Queen Elizabeth II at Windsor Castle on Monday, the Prince of Wales conceded the fight against climate change wasn’t an easy one.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/prince-william-cites-the-queen-as-he-calls-for-fresh-focus-on-climate-fight-20220922-p5bk10.html
There’s a huge surge in solar production under way – and Australia could show the world how to use it, urges Professor Andrew Blakers.
https://theconversation.com/theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it-190241
The Australian Energy Market Operator is not the right organisation to be conducting the dramatic overhaul required for the economy, writes Zacharias Szumer.
https://michaelwest.com.au/zero-sum-game-questions-surround-australias-electricity-transition/
Lucy Kane believes that America’s dysfunctional political system is enough to turn some Australians off a republic.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/america-s-dysfunctional-political-system-is-enough-to-turn-some-australians-off-a-republic-20220920-p5bjfd.html
Jake Niall opines that if allegations are proven, Clarkson’s and Fagan’s coaching positions are untenable.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/if-allegations-are-proven-clarkson-s-and-fagan-s-coaching-positions-are-untenable-20220921-p5bjwy.html
Allegations from former Indigenous players at Hawthorn that former senior staff at the AFL club separated them from their families and demanded pregnancy terminations for their partners are echoes of the devastating racist policies that stain the history of Australia’s treatment of First Nations people, opines the Age’s editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/distressing-hawthorn-racism-allegations-a-reminder-of-the-work-to-be-done-20220921-p5bjyp.html
The AFL have had plenty of warning signs that issues surrounding Indigenous people were not being properly considered, yet little has been done to ensure Indigenous people have a real voice in the game, writes former Geelong player Matthew Stokes who says Goyder and McLachlan need to take responsibility.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/goyder-and-mclachlan-need-to-take-responsibility-20220921-p5bjxh.html
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point for a third straight time, lowered its economic forecast for the US and increased its expectations for higher inflation and unemployment. The Dow is down 500 points.
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/federal-reserve-lifts-key-rate-by-0-75pc-20220922-p5bk15
More on the Defence Strategic Review. This time Mack Williams wonders if we’ll see a rehash of US influenced orthodoxy.
https://johnmenadue.com/defence-strategic-review-rehash-of-us-influenced-orthodoxy/
Vladimir Putin has doubled down on war. Greg Sheridan writes that the humiliated dictator, who normally projects macho swagger and extravagant braggadocio, has been out-fought, out-manoeuvred and out-thought by his Ukrainian enemies.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/world/humiliated-russian-president-vladimir-putin-doubles-down-on-war/news-story/1dc5b5aa479637bd05206be64a797be4
Farrah Tomazin reports that Joe Biden has delivered a stinging rebuke of Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine, telling global leaders that Vladimir Putin’s actions – including his latest threat to unleash nuclear weapons – should make the world’s “blood run cold”.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/putin-s-aggression-should-make-your-blood-run-cold-biden-to-un-20220922-p5bk12.html
The attorney general of New York state has filed a civil fraud lawsuit against Donald Trump and three of his children involved in the family real-estate business, for falsely inflating his net worth by billions in order to enrich himself and secure favourable loans. Announcing the suit in New York on Wednesday, Letitia James also said referrals had been made to federal prosecutors and the Internal Revenue Service – a move sure to anger the former US president and increase consternation among his inner circle about the depth of his legal predicament.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/sep/21/trump-new-york-investigation-ivanka-donald-eric
Cartoon Corner
David Pope – powerful!
Cathy Wilcox
John Shakespeare
Andrew Dyson
Fiona Katauskas
Mark David
Glen Le Lievre
Mark Knight
Leak
From the US
Zelensky live to UN
https://youtu.be/3yM0j4ibXtE
Thanks BK. Good to see the queen finally wiped from the daily news cycle and the Dawn Patrol can get back to its usual bounty.
Late to the feed, sorry, just caught the end of it.
So much news about
Thanks BK
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
#ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 IND 12 (likely to be inflated) Others 6. My 2PP estimate if that happened on election day 61-39 to Labor but that is conservative; it could be even higher given IND issue.
I haven’t seen such a still morning for a loooong time. Not a puff of movement in the air. If it wasn’t for the small birds it would feel like the forest is frozen in time.
Another bombshell story detailing the way Scott Morrison really ran the Australian federal government:
Former deputy prime ministers Barnaby Joyce and Michael McCormack did not always know if the “deep dive” policy meetings they attended were actually meetings of Scott Morrison’s secretive cabinet subcommittee. McCormack told Guardian Australia it was a “regular process” to have stakeholders including outer ministry colleagues, officials and “captains of industry” attend meetings in the cabinet room.
!!!
The man was a megalomaniac. A performance artist of the highest political calibre, who thought that if he produced enough bread ($$) and circuses, then he would continue on his winning ways. All the while running the country the way HE wanted to. Goodness knows where we would have ended up if he kept winning elections. I’m so grateful the scales fell from the eyes of the electorate in May.
Good question
Counterchekist #StandWithUkraine
@counterchekist
Question: If Putin mobilizes males 18-50 in Russia for frontline military service in Ukraine, does comrade Ed
@Snowden
have to report
https://www.industrialrelations.nsw.gov.au/public-holidays/public-holidays-in-nsw/#icalendar-downloads
Simon Katich,
The East Coast has all your air. You can have it back if you want. 😐
Confessions @ #293 Thursday, September 22nd, 2022 – 6:11 am
Spit hoods came to national and international attention mainly through the Dylan Voller case in the NT. There’s a photo in the following link that is not for the faint hearted.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-11/nt-government-considering-alternatives-police-use-spithoods-kids/101320724
#weatheronPB
Drips, too thick for mist,
slowly fill wet leaves, finally bending, gracefully,
to release their catch again.
Thanks for our daily fix, BK. Another Bumper read.
No thanks C@t. We lost another healthy tree to it on the weekend, so loving the serenity.
I reckon last time I was in this dead stillness was working off the NW shelf. The sea was solid grey glass, a blanket of greyness above, and the horizon disappeared. We cut the engine and waited for the boat to settle. It was so eerie. Rough as guts sea dogs went all zen and wouldn’t let me take a photo. ‘Live it, City boy’.
Holdenhillbilly @ #313 Thursday, September 22nd, 2022 – 7:51 am
Jesus. That’s a drubbing in anyone’s language!
Also a lovely still and sunny morning here in Melbourne town
John Menadue retelling a story about the Queen bitching to him that Gough was rude to/about lesser royals.
https://johnmenadue.com/gough-whitlam-was-rude-to-the-lesser-royals/
Thanks Itza, I do remember that case and the 4C expose on youth detention.
Police in other states manage to enforce law and order without putting hoods on detainees, so what makes police in Qld and NT so special they can’t arrest someone who isn’t wearing one?
This was mentioned on Twitter -“remembering the time me and another recently immigrated woc went to watch our newly adopted team play hawthorn, took a quick selfie, and only realised when we got home that the hawks fans behind us had flashed the white power sign”
(Can’t post the photo)
The thread then shows Jenny Morrison doing the same when meeting Meghan Markle and Harry, etc.
Am pretty sure that Qanon /4chan spread the use of this.
https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2018/09/18/ok-sign-white-power-symbol-or-just-right-wing-troll
SimonK.,
I do love that seemingly endless expanse of Indian Ocean off the coast of WA. I have an old friend who was a Cray fisherman for a long while out of the Abrolhos Islands and he had many stories to tell of what he came across out there as he went about his work.
I must make this observation though. Once we went to visit him at his coastal base in Geraldton and it seemed to me that the lack of definable movement of the sea induced a sort of madness in the people that they attempted to drown out with alcohol, almost as if the fact that nothing changing from day to day in their physical environment led them to create ‘excitement’ in their lives in other ways. Or maybe that was just because the place was full of rugged outback types. 🙂
It has probably changed a lot though since I was there and I have to say that working in Kalbarri for 3 months was a delight.
One more from P&I, an interesting historical look at the long long standing need (my word, my supposition) for the settings of social propriety by figure heads. This is a sympathetic take on QEII and Christianity by George Browning, president of the Australia Palestine Advocacy Network (APAN) and past Anglican Bishop of Canberra Goulburn 1993 -2008.
https://johnmenadue.com/anointed-not-appointed-reign-not-rule/
What about Jeff Kennett’s collection of golliwogs!?!
And thanks as usual BK!
I don’t think Prince Andrew embodies any fine qualities at all.
Sotiri Dimpinoudis
@sotiridi
·
9h
#Breaking: just in – The traffic jam at the border with #Russia/#Finland has pilled up to 35KM and is rising by the hour, it is the only border who is still open for Russian civilians with shengen visas, after #Putin announced he will send 300.000 new troops to #Ukraine.
Also from twitter
Quds News Network
“A widely circulating video shows Britain’s King Charles III disdainfully ignoring a black man while he shakes the hands of others.”
Again, don’t know how to post the video clip.
The pathetic Johannes Leak attacking the ALP Premier of Qld?….. Has Murdoch given up on Victoria and NSW already?
Your region of influence is shrinking, eh Rupert?
C@t, most of the boaties were from Exmouth area and they were not impressed that the operation was dry.
It’s a fact, just days after he took over: Charles III is the last King of Australia!
This poison must be stopped!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-21/cathrine-burnett-wake-valedictory-church-religion-liberal-party/101463452
Only recently we heard that borders won’t be closing to Russia tourists. I wonder if yesterday’s Putinburst will start to change that thinking?
Ukraine will eventually need more help from NATO if Putin adds this number of troops in the coming months. That makes large influxes of Russians into places like Finland rather problematic.
”
Cronussays:
Thursday, September 22, 2022 at 2:56 am
Prior to the war, I made clear that I knew of no leader that would site an army force of up to 200k on a foreign border in Winter for months with no intent to use said force. Of course Putin subsequently invaded Ukraine.
……….
”
Cronus
Under the stewardship of ex-PM A. B. Vajpayee, India mobilised Indian army on India-Pakistan border due to a Terrorist attack by terrorists operating from Pakistan soil on Indian Parliament, but did not go to war.
“By January 2002, India had mobilized around 500,000 troops and three armored divisions on Pakistan’s border”
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001%E2%80%932002_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_standoff
I am bit surprised that you did not know that. Can you explain why?
I guess in Duntroon and Westpoint cadets need to be taught about armies of other democratic countries instead of just drilling how great their armies are.
Charles III is the last King of Australia!
————————
Where’s Wally?
The Liberal Party apparently attracts a PV in the 20s in Victoria. Good.
Holdenhillbilly says:
Thursday, September 22, 2022 at 7:51 am
Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
#ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 IND 12 (likely to be inflated) Others 6. My 2PP estimate if that happened on election day 61-39 to Labor but that is conservative; it could be even higher given IND issue.
Formerly Lib-adhering constituencies are mobilising against the Liberal/reactionaries. The decay in reactionary politics …excellent.
Grey and overcast in Sydney, windy with showers about. If you were intending to mourn, it’s probably a good day for it.
C@tmomma @ #330 Thursday, September 22nd, 2022 – 8:17 am
I’ve got a golliwog! I bought it at the CWA in Hobart a few years ago. Perfectly knitted, red britches, the lot, so completely unwoke that it’s a strong woke statement.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, September 22, 2022 at 8:17 am
What about Jeff Kennett’s collection of golliwogs!?!
_______
I know a little about that but can’t get further into it. Each one is named after a black person.
ItzaDream @ #344 Thursday, September 22nd, 2022 – 8:36 am
Yeah but you didn’t buy another one and name them after every new Hawthorn Indigenous player. 😐
The Kennett golliwog thing is just bizarre. How old is this man FFS?
ItzaDream says:
I’ve got a golliwog! I bought it at the CWA in Hobart a few years ago. Perfectly knitted, red britches, the lot, so completely unwoke that it’s a strong woke statement.
________
…..ok……
Putins intentions are clear. His threat of nuclear strikes are real. He is desperate angry and mad things have not gone to his plan.
Unfortunately for him Russians have different ideas.
Hopefully they will get rid of him soon.
Enough is enough
Thanks BK. Lots today!
This one is appalling.
Troy Stolz has been hounded for years now by an organisation, with seemingly unfettered access to government, for doing the job they originally hired and trained him to do. You can follow him on twitter, @TroyStolz.
There are two stories here: (1) Troy Stolz’s circumstances, and (2) The corruption he uncovered. They are not unreported, but they appear to be little remarked. Here’s one.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/15/nsw-clubs-lobby-alleges-whistleblower-troy-stolz-waged-media-campaign-to-tarnish-its-reputation
You can also search YouTube for “troy stolz interview”.