Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in New South Wales

47 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in New South Wales”

1. Can we keep this thread for discussion of New South Wales state politics. The general discussion thread continues here.

2. Slight correction George Simon is aligned with the hard left of the alp.
   Latest version of the left upper house ballot Jackson 81 Graham 74
   Veitch 73..Murphy 62.. quota Was
   73

3. There is disquiet within both factions re the upper house ticket and as pointed out in the main post Cameron Murphy is nominating. against the official left ticket..haven’t seen the Australian article but it appears that despite some of labors problems the coalition seems unlikely to win in nsw..this ignores any impact of the teal candidates who would be in a good position in say Willoughby

4. George Simon is aligned with the hard left

   Thanks – corrected.

5. New Resolve poll confirms NewsPoll is not an outlier…

   NSW Labor has stormed ahead to secure an election-winning lead as voters abandon the Coalition following the John Barilaro trade appointment scandal and rolling public sector strikes.

   With the state election due exactly six months on Saturday, Labor’s primary vote has hit 43 per cent – a 10-point increase since the 2019 election, while the Coalition’s has slumped to just 30 per cent – a massive 12-point drop since the last election.

   https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-secures-election-winning-lead-as-voters-abandon-the-coalition-20220923-p5bkg4.html

6. The NSW Coalition primary has fallen off a cliff – wonder why?

   

7. Could be a clue here to explain the NSW Liberal tanking….

   

8. WB:
   UPDATE: And now the Sydney Morning Herald has come through with a Resolve Strategic result drawn, like the earlier Victorian poll, from the samples for its last two federal polls. The results in this case are quite a bit worse for the Coalition than Newspoll’s, putting Labor ahead 43% to 30% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10% and Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 2%. By my loose reckoning, this would pan out to a Labor lead of around 60-40 on two-party preferred. Dominic Perrottet and Chris Minns are tied on 28% for preferred premier, leaving fully 44% uncommitted. The polling was conducted “in August and September” from a sample of 1170.
   ”

   Oathic bloody sh*t

9. ”
   Sprocket_says:
   Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 6:33 am
   New Resolve poll confirms NewsPoll is not an outlier…

   NSW Labor has stormed ahead to secure an election-winning lead as voters abandon the Coalition following the John Barilaro trade appointment scandal and rolling public sector strikes.

   With the state election due exactly six months on Saturday, Labor’s primary vote has hit 43 per cent – a 10-point increase since the 2019 election, while the Coalition’s has slumped to just 30 per cent – a massive 12-point drop since the last election.

   https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nsw-labor-secures-election-winning-lead-as-voters-abandon-the-coalition-20220923-p5bkg4.html
   ”

   But Dutton says he is worried about Labor.
   LOL

   https://www-skynews-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/dutton-hits-back-at-marles-who-suggested-the-coalition-has-not-placed-us-well-as-labor-tackles-the-cost-of-living-crisis/news-story/c6829c2ce1f88d9b40046f47580a21ea?amp=&amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16639682106339&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.skynews.com.au%2Faustralia-news%2Fpolitics%2Fdutton-hits-back-at-marles-who-suggested-the-coalition-has-not-placed-us-well-as-labor-tackles-the-cost-of-living-crisis%2Fnews-story%2Fc6829c2ce1f88d9b40046f47580a21ea%3Famp%3D%23amp_tf%3DFrom%2520%25251%2524s%26aoh%3D16639682106339%26csi%3D0%26referrer%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.google.com

10. Mick Quinlivan. If there is dissatisfaction maybe you can vote for Murphy?

11. From previous general thread:

    Upnorthsays:
    Friday, September 23, 2022 at 10:38 pm
    Tories “more” on the on the nose outside Sydney

    “While support for the Greens has lifted 2.4 points to 12 per cent since 2019, the perceived threat of a “teal wave” in NSW appears unlikely.

    The primary vote for “others’’, which includes One Nation, independents and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, has fallen 2 per cent to a cumulative 13 per cent.

    The poll found only 29 per cent of those surveyed who lived outside Sydney believed the government deserved to be re-elected, compared with 32 per cent who lived in Sydney.”

    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/give-someone-else-a-go-nsw-labors-stakes-rise-in-newspoll/news-story/72a35c50419a67bd2cb616db4c65942e
    ”

    This is nub of the problem where PV outside Sydney metropolitan is only 29% because LNP is supposed to be strong outside Sydney.
    Based on this when Murdoch paper analyse that NSW Labor will only gain 7 seats at 54-46 2PP, it is not believable.

12. Despite Andrew Earlwood and his never ending campaign against Chris Minns, which is petty in the extreme, Minns must be doing something right, and the Liberals in NSW have been in power for too long. Plus the popularity of the federal government and Albanese would be helping Labor in NSW and VIC too for that matter.

13. Ven
    …This is nub of the problem where PV outside Sydney metropolitan is only 29% because LNP is supposed to be strong outside Sydney.
    Based on this when Murdoch paper analyse that NSW Labor will only gain 7 seats at 54-46 2PP, it is not believable.

    A big problem for the Coalition outside the Sydney region is that the Nationals are under pressure from the Shooters in specific seats. Also, the flood response by Perrottet was extremely pathetic. Then there was the Barilaro saga. Not good for attracting votes.

14. The person doing most damage to mins right now is Tania mihayluikone of his own suporters who suportid his leadership in 2019 as well well mins did not like searle any way as he was one of mckays bigest backers and the union secretaries installed minns over mckay in the first place so mins would go along with there upper house ticket moslemane had to go after the raid and asfour was considered the best pickhe helped mihailiak in 2011 win the seat shes the most disloyal

15. perhaps searle could have been involved in leaking against secord somone close to mckay may have leaked it to damage him knowing he was close to mins

16. And then there’s Kiama, looks like the Sorcerers apprentice will put up his wand for the tories.

17. On these figures, I scratch my head at anyone discussing problems with any party except the Liberals.

18. Wranslide I would but i am not a delegate to nsw conference.

19. The implied 2PP from last election preferences based on Newspoll primaries is a bit better for Labor than the published 2PP figure of 54-46.

    Using the NSW 2019 preference flows published on this site (thank you William!)

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2020/12/18/slowing-the-flow

    NSW 2019 preference flows (Labor/Coalition/Exhaust)
    Greens (52.5% / 7.5% / 40.0% )
    All Others (21.0% / 16.1% / 62.9%)*

    *combined flow for all non major and greens first preferences

    Plugging these preference flows into the Newspoll primaries gives a Labor 2PP of 56.3%

20. So the Liberal vote, State/Federal seems to be coalescing around 30 percent…….yet to see the MSM story about that!

21. it would be helpful if after this mihaliuk could be pushed out and a fresh candadate get fairfield and cabramater maybi the candadate hayes wanted mihayliuk is a liability at this point but if she is dumpt the libs willsay she was pushed out due to the speech adfter fowler parashuting her would be a big mistake mean while ray williams aligations over hils cowncil have disapeareddont know whiy merphy is picking a fight at conference they could have an opening in liverpool if the soft left paul lynch retire after being in politics for 20 years liberal preselections could also be interesting

22. it would be helpful if after this mihaliuk could be pushed out and a fresh candadate get fairfield and cabramater maybi the candadate hayes wanted mihayliuk is a liability at this point but if she is dumpt the libs willsay she was pushed out due to the speech adfter fowler parashuting her would be a big mistake mean while ray williams aligations over hils cowncil have disapeareddont know whiy merphy is picking a fight at conference they could have an opening in liverpool if the soft left paul lynch retire after being in politics for 20 years liberal preselections could also be interestingif the liberals leaked the hospital visets to the murdock papers and will probaly dig up clements links with minns shows the liberals are woried if mihaylick was soconcerned about integrity whiy did she thank asfar her campaign manager in her first speech thanking his family for suport over a decade and the e it seems asfars explenation that he wanted him to be her pupit as mayor has more credability if she did noti dont think shaqquiot moslemane could run due to his bad publisity seems brad hazard will retire

23. I’m stunned by these polls. Based on other recent polls and the difficult electoral pendulum for Labor in NSW, and the legacy of deep corruption from the most recent NSW Labor government, I had thought minority government at best was all that NSW Labor could achieve in 2023. But if these numbers for both 2PP and the Labor PV are true, majority Labor government would surely be the result. I’m incredulous that these numbers are real-is it possible that the very positive reception of the new Federal government has lifted the ALP brand everywhere, and diminished the Liberal brand, or that federal voting intention has been confused with state voting intention? The Victorian state poll results also suggest that might be the case.

    I know Minns has his critics, but he’s been easily the best media performer of the 5 ALP opposition leaders since 2011. Remember Robbo? Luke Foley and his wandering hands? Michael Daley’s brief cameo? Minns manages to come across as moderate, competent and personable I think. While Perrottet comes across as goofy and acedemic. But what would the ALP actually do in government?

    There is plenty to criticise in the 12 years of LNP government, like Perrottet’s iCare fiasco for example. But the LNP do deserve credit for a massive expansion of the expressway system, and the development of an extensive metro system to augment heavy rail. And their attitude on climate change has been very different from the Federal LNP. I also like the intention of Perrottet to phase out stamp duty on property transactions. I really want to see a policy platform from the ALP with detail on their plans for transport infrastructure, improving the health and education systems, and reform of state taxation before they get my first preference. “We aren’t the Liberals” or “It’s time for our turn” doesn’t cut it.

    And go the Swans today! I’m resigned to likely defeat by the might of Geelong, but there is so much young talent in this Swans team, it’s a great time to be a Swans supporter.

24. Aaron.. good sense in yr last post.. o suspect Tania will not be a candidate for Labor in 2023. The alp needs to.hold rank and file ballots in both Cabramatta and Fairfield and choose good candidates. Labor suffers from the aftermath of the Tripodi machine on that area

25. Adam searle is aparently best mates with michael daley maybi a reason whiy he was dumpt from yupper house ticket was probaly mckays strongist suporter would be good if some of laborslong serving mps such as daley linch maybi primrose and donnely in upper house not up for re election until next time left the fergesons do not have a track record of providing good mps anthony da Adam desbite theis good but linda vaults and lynch havent egzactly dun much and jackson and graham are to of our best upper house mps suspect mihayliak will not run

26. “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in New South Wales”…

    Shite!…. Now, that’s psephological news, worthy of a frontpage article in The Australian…. but I am not holding my breath, of course….

    No wonder the usual suspects have been observed doing some strategic retreats in the two major states and desperately trying to increase their chances in the third one, Qld, although the state election there is still 2 years off.

    Let’s see whether the trend is maintained until the NSW state election. But this one is also looking positive for the ALP: the NSW people are ready for change.

27. “Ven says:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 7:34 am

    …But Dutton says he is worried about Labor.
    LOL”

    What wood “poor” Labor do without the caring consideration of Peter Dutton?…. Double-LOL…..

28. “Parramatta Moderate says:
    Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 1:29 pm
    I’m stunned by these polls. Based on other recent polls and the difficult electoral pendulum for Labor in NSW, and the legacy of deep corruption from the most recent NSW Labor government….”

    So, Obeid retired from politics 9 years ago and we are still supposed to see the NSW ALP as a bunch of little “Obeids”?…. This reminds me the strategy of those right-wing politicians who, in 2022, still try to scare the hell out of the voters telling them that a vote for the ALP is a vote for the Soviet Union….

    The voters eventually move on from the past and just focus on their current reality, who is the direct cause of their troubles and who may come with a solution.

29. Where is “Moderate” ( not Parramatta Moderate)?
    Moderate comes on PB whenever there is even a slight good news for LNP and dumps NSW Labor, Labor members and supporters.
    Now goes missing when we need Moderate take on current poll numbers. Did someone say Chicken Tonight? Did someone say KFC? 🙂

30. Moderate. The pv is very important under opv.. both the resolve and newspoll show Labor is at least 5% higher on the primary vote this means the opv “bonus” now goes to Labor. I am yet to work out a measure of opv bonus.. but just do rough sums for East Hills 2019.if Labor outpolled the libs by 2% and picked up 1.5% in preferences

31. A couple of notes…

    1. The Perottet govt is on the nose…yet we’re not seeing them described as “embattled” or “nosediving in the polls”

    2. How many current ALP NSW parliamentarians are being investigated by ICAC? Yet Labor STILL has a “stench” of corruption…

    There’s something underneath this that goes beyond media bias (which, I’m certain, is a factor.) It’s almost archetypal: unions have “bosses,” business has “leaders.” ALP has the criminally corrupt stench of Obeid, Libs have O’Farrell who made a mistake about wine…

    It’s like the broader community can easily believe the worst about the ALP and the best (glossing over the worst) about the Coalition.

32. Parramatta Moderate. Why does the NSW Government “deserve credit for a massive expansion of the expressway system, and the development of an extensive metro system to augment heavy rail”.

    The expressway expansion has simply doubled as a protection racket for Transurban and destroyed masses of tree canopy and urban amenity? (Seen Cammeray Park recently?) Labor built more freeways 1995 – 2007 but no one said they should be given credit

    The metro system is a wasteful spend of once in a century privatisation. And it is not a “metro system”- it is a heavy rail service supplied with metro trains. A metro system would be a network (even two lines crossing would be nice) with a significant number of stops – the projects selected by this Government have neither. The one line that would have been ideal for a Metro, was wasted on a $3B light rail that was 100% over budget.

33. Well said ST @4:33 pm .
    Did you read my comment @8:52, where Murdoch rag mentioned that with a 2PP of 54-46 in favour of NSW Labor, Labor will only gain 7 seats that too when LNP PV in Bush is 29%>

34. The polling makes sense to me; ageing government, scandals, decay etc. There have been some pretty big swings in the last 10 years in that scenario – Qld 2012, WA 2017. There could easily be an 8% swing to Labor, or more.

    The question is, is it retrievable for the Government? I don’t live in NSW and so don’t have the ‘on the ground’ view, which is important. Maybe with a good disciplined 6 months they could pull a few points back. Doubt they can pull enough back though.

    But I still don’t believe the Victorian polling – has t0 be some swing against the Government- and Qld will be very difficult for the ALP next time unless both Palasczcuck stays as Premier and the LNP finds a new way to lose.

35. Honestly, the LNP in NSW has been terribly corrupt for some time, but thw media mostly ignored unlike how they treated Labor in the past, as you see people still mention Obeid even though that was ages ago now, but its the difference you have when the media actually does its job and not, but perhaps people have woken up to the LNP corruption themselves.
    But really it was Gladys popularity that was holding it together, once she was gone the LNP has looked pretty much finished.

36. Honestly, how is this a surprise? Anyone that’s had to rely on the train service in Sydney in the last 9 months would have found it intolerable. The Government have tried shifting blame to the unions but that’s only good for the rusted-ons, most people see that getting the trains to run is the Government’s responsibility. The Bankstown line metro is a debacle with works on again/off again. Outside Sydney, everyone just sees the Nationals as in it for themselves after Barilaro’s antics.

    The stench of corruption from NSW is still there, it’s propping up what would be a complete disaster otherwise.

37. Teals targeting the NSW seat of North Shore, co-extensive with parts of the Federal seats of North Sydney and Warringah, both in Teal hands:

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/north-shore-seat-in-firing-line-of-teal-army-mobilising-for-state-election-20220925-p5bkt5.html

38. it seems the media triying to attack the banks town mayor has failed they tried same tacdick with andrews first attacking him for not moving against somyurek then when he did triying to re invent him but it did not work im shure the liberals will drag up jamey clements but do not thinkmost peopleknow who he is thankfuly since distyari nsw labor secretaries like the liberal campaign directors stayed in the background

39. The Barilaro inquiry “escape to New York” is not finalised yet more to come.. Barilaro was to be asked how he helped his girlfriend get s job.. but he got sick. If the nsw government hopes to blame Amy Brown for a crooked selection for the New York job .they are very wrong Ayres and she worked together in that enterprise. Barilaro and Amy Brown and Ayres will probably be fronting ICac re this same matter. But there will be the matter of the building commissioners resignation and his letter which will involve Barilaro and Eleni Petinos and Cornation property which will also hit Icac. Remember 2 lib mps now independent are suspended and will not be the endorsed candidates for Kiama and Drummoyne.. they given the difficulty they are in like Ayres will make it very hard for the liberals to retain those seats. The mps for Parramatta and Ryde are both popular and also not tainted by obvious scandal …. at least one of the 2 seats will be lost to the liberals. This contributes to the swirl of corruption forming around the liberals. Labors own problems pale into insignificance.

40. The trouble with the Resolve Strategic poll is that it’s out of date by the time they publish it, taken as it was when the publicity around the Barilaro debacle was still fresh, which gives much greater credence to the Newspoll result – not that the headline number of that one will give Dominic Perrottet much comfort, though the fundamentals underneath seem a little better.

41. Amy Brown tried to throw everyone under the bus. Not very christian of her. Good luck in the private sector Ms Brown.

42. Barilaro pushed them off the cliff. The Libs gave it a try with their budget, but Mr Pork-Barilaro made it irrelevant within a week . Now all hey have left is David Elliott making himself a fool while trying to blame the transport unions. If Labor win well and Teals sweep a bunch of traditional lib areas it may be the end of the Liberal Party, or the beginning of the end

43. The Gladys ICAC report is also yet to come

44. What ever icac does is no help.to the nsw government

45. it seems mihayliumks rant disapeared prity quicklyy it was over shadowed buy barilarows job i think perottit through both ayres and brown ubnder the bus think mihayliuk will retire i think othe public have largily forgottin about obead buy now and elliot is a gift to labor with his constant under mining off kean it was elliott who actuly was negociating well with union aposed buy tuderhopeand premier but dont think we can right off a liberal come backi thought back whenwhen they were devided over climate they would be in decline back then

46. Seems nsw politics is very quiet the big deal about the banks town mp has disapeared it appears nothing has been found about the labor candadate

47. Now that rob stokes is retiring and hazard leabving seems the media have given up on perrottit for the los in march 2gb and sky are all ready triying to blame matt kean desbite his image as a progresive on climate he still went along with barilarow distroying colar habitat so he could get his renewable energy policy through the nationals