Polls: Indigenous voice, leadership approval, skills shortages (open thread)

Strong support in principle for an Indigenous voice to parliament; a largely positive response to the Jobs Summit from those who noticed it; and no sign of the sheen coming off Anthony Albanese.

Time for a new open thread post, though I don’t have a whole lot to hang one off. There’s always US pollster Morning Consult’s tracking poll on approval of Anthony Albanese, which continues to record no significant change since June, with Albanese currently on 60% approval and 27% disapproval. This gives him the third best result of 22 international leaders being followed by the pollster, behind India’s Nahendra Modi and Mexico’s Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

There are also two new sets of supplemental results from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll in the Age/Herald:

• A series of questions on outcomes from the Jobs Summit published on Saturday had favourable results for multi-employer bargaining, more TAFE places and allowing older Australians to earn more before losing the aged pension, but only 34% in favour of the increased migration intake, with 33% opposed. Only 24% rated themselves “definitely aware” of the recent Jobs Summit, compared with 38% for “vaguely aware” and 38% for unaware. Thirty-six per cent agreed it had achieved its (non-political) objectives compared with 19% who disagreed and 46% who were either undecided or neutral.

• The Age/Herald had a further result yesterday showing a 64-36 break in favour of a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice, evidently based on a forced response. Clear majorities were recorded in all states, and while there is no reason to be dubious about this, the Tasmanian sample especially would obviously have been exceedingly small.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,553 comments on “Polls: Indigenous voice, leadership approval, skills shortages (open thread)”

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  1. poroti says:
    Tuesday, September 27, 2022 at 12:44 pm

    Upnorth at 12:40 pm
    Brisvegas city council ,ah yes, the people that gave us CanJoh
    中华人民共和国
    Actually Brisbane was amalgamated in 1925 from 21 smaller councils by the then Labor Government.

    The Beattie Government then amalgamated many regional councils in 2008 (70% of them changed). Residents are no longer lumbered with hundreds of extra elected positions (usually up and coming LNP politicians) and tin pot councils that were reliant on State on Federal Grants to keep local services running.

  2. andrewmck says:
    Tuesday, September 27, 2022 at 12:51 pm

    Upnorth says:
    Tuesday, September 27, 2022 at 12:34 pm
    … ALP has no councillors on current council. 5 Greens, with 2 Socialists and 2 independents making up the opposition.
    中华人民共和国
    Is that ridgey didge cobber?
    ********
    Would I lie to you?
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/victoria-s-first-greens-dominated-council-elected-in-yarra-20201106-p56c2k.html
    中华人民共和国
    Sounds like a fun place to live! Thanks cobber.

  3. Sorry Rex – No Kangaroo Courts

    Labor’s proposed national anti-corruption commission will be able to examine retrospective cases, have broad scope to investigate suspected wrongdoing and hold public hearings in “exceptional circumstances”.

    Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus said the independent commission would be empowered to investigate “serious or systemic corrupt conduct” across the Commonwealth public sector by ministers, parliamentarians and their staff, statutory office holders, employees of all government entities and government contractors.

    “The commission will operate independent of government with discretion to commence inquiries into serious or systemic corruption on its own initiative or in response to referrals, including from whistleblowers and the public,” he said.

    Labor will introduce the legislation for the commission to parliament on Wednesday and it is then expected to be referred to a committee for review and potential amendments.

    Mr Dreyfus said the commission would have the power to hold public hearings “in exceptional circumstances and where it is in the public interest to do so”.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/proposed-national-anticorruption-watchdog-free-to-investigate-third-parties-government-pork-barrelling/news-story/922ae58e7a19ec97ff81a26131138896?amp

  4. “We think public hearings should be exceptional and we think that the commission should be required to determine that it is in the public interest that a hearing be in public.

    “Public hearings, as we have seen, are more difficult to conduct. They raise questions about reputational harm which are not faced when you hold private hearings and that is why most of these (state-based) commissions’ work has been done in private.

    “We would expect the same to occur with … this new Commonwealth agency.”

    Mr Dreyfus said the commission would have powers to investigate allegations that occurred “before its establishment”.

    It will also be able to make “findings of fact,” including of corrupt conduct, and refer any potential criminal conduct to the Australian Federal Police or the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions.

    “The commission will operate with procedural fairness and its findings will be subject to judicial review,” Mr Dreyfus.

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/proposed-national-anticorruption-watchdog-free-to-investigate-third-parties-government-pork-barrelling/news-story/922ae58e7a19ec97ff81a26131138896?amp

  5. From the reports so far the anti-corruption set up sounds

    But as this is all Lawyerland territory I suppose we’ll have to wait until the ‘fine print’ has had the traditional fine toothed comb through it .

  6. poroti

    “But as this is all Lawyerland territory I suppose we’ll have to wait until the ‘fine print’ has had the traditional fine toothed comb through it .”

    I consider myself retained by you. Let me just grab the meter and the oversized calculator and I will begin.

  7. shellbell says:
    Tuesday, September 27, 2022 at 1:29 pm

    poroti

    “But as this is all Lawyerland territory I suppose we’ll have to wait until the ‘fine print’ has had the traditional fine toothed comb through it .”

    I consider myself retained by you. Let me just grab the meter and the oversized calculator and I will begin.
    中华人民共和国
    Don’t forget your “silent partner” the photocopier.

  8. C/-Guardian

    “There’s been a bit of interest about the “exceptional circumstances” bar before the National Anti-Corruption Commission can hold public hearings.

    This is the same bar as Victoria, and appears to be a lower bar than South Australia, which has no public hearings.

    But it is a higher bar than every other jurisdiction:

    NSW – inquiries are public when it is in the public interest
    Queensland – generally hearings for crime investigations are not open, but they can be if it would “be more effective and would not be unfair to a person or contrary to the public interest”
    Western Australia – the starting point is private hearings, but they can be opened if it is in the public interest to do so
    Tasmania – where the starting point is public hearings
    ACT – examinations can be public if it is in the public interest and “can be held without unreasonably infringing a person’s human rights”
    Northern Territory – public inquiries are generally open to the public
    be open to the public”

    I don’t think Tasmania has ever had a public hearing

  9. Late Riser at 11 am, Boerwar at 10.08 am

    Yes, LR, Boer’s error was to assume that the body he ridiculed is the ridiculous one, which is the Human Rights Council at level 1 (for background re levels see 9.59 am post), instead of the Human Rights Committee at level 2, which has a useful function and is not ridiculous.

    The Human Rights Committee is persuasive, but it does not make judgements which are legally enforceable rulings, just recommendations, so, as with the case that Rodney Croome took to the UN in 1994 re institutionalised homophobia in Tasmania, getting actual change depends on political activism within the offending state, using such recommendations.

    There is a good legal reason why the Human Rights Committee does not criticise China. The job of the committee is to monitor the performance of states that have accepted such scrutiny by ratifying the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and specifically its Optional Protocol. Australia accepted it on 25 September 1991, a fact noted in the leading judgement in the Mabo No. 2 case, just before Brennan J. et. al. declared an important principle of Australian law:

    “The common law does not necessarily conform with international law, but international law is a legitimate and important influence on the development of the common law, especially when international law declares the existence of universal human rights.”

    China has ratified some human rights treaties but not the Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. E.g. it has ratified the Convention on Discrimination against Women but not the protocol enabling individual complaints by Chinese women against discrimination. Therefore the Human Rights Committee has no jurisdiction over China because the jurisdiction of the Committee depends upon state consent. Insecure states, like China, don’t like such scrutiny.

    The ratification status of human rights treaties for all states is available at:

    https://indicators.ohchr.org/ (click on country in left menu)

    The statement that “the UN is not fit for purpose” is vacuous unless one specifies which bits of the UN are unfit in which ways and how the inadequacies might be remedied. Generally, it is level 1 of the UN (the foundational, or “Westphalian” level) that is most unfit. A suggestion has been made to create a UN third chamber, or Global Peoples Assembly, to complement the inadequacies of the General Assembly and the Security Council with direct popular input. See:

    https://vikalpsangam.org/wp-content/uploads/migrate/alternativePolitics/global_peoples_assembly_falkstrauss.pdf

    (article by Richard Falk and Andrew Strauss from the Stanford Journal of international Law)

    Elections to such an Assembly would be proportional by population, so China and India would have the most delegates. However, the principle of elections seems subversive to many rulers.

  10. Thank you Dr Doolittle.

    And that’s an interesting link you included. https://indicators.ohchr.org/
    Australia, it seems, takes exception to
    – Economic, Social and Cultural Rights
    – Rights of the Child on a communications procedure
    – Protection of the Rights of All Migrant Workers and Members of their Families
    – Protection of all Persons from Enforced Disappearance

  11. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Tuesday, September 27, 2022 at 12:57 pm

    “ My view is that we should encourage China to increase its CO2 emissions and encourage Modi’s ambition to increase India’s coal-burning from around 750 million tons a year to a billion tons a year.
    You know. Because the West….”

    ___

    I think that post is what could be described as being wilfully obtuse.
    ===================================
    The ship is three quarters full of water because of what the crew pumped into the ship over the past couple of centuries.

    Because of this the ship is at severe risk of turning turtle, running aground or simply sinking. If it sinks all the crew will drown. If it merely runs aground maybe half the crew will cook to death, die of thirst or starve to death.

    A very, very few of the crew are now trying to bail the ship out by pumping more water out than they are pumping in.

    Other aver that their pumping, whether by per capita or by whether gross amount, will only make a tiny difference so they might as well keep pumping water into the ship.

    Some are saying that it is up to the crew that did all historical pumping who should stop pumping right now while they keep pumping water into the ship at whatever rate suits them.

    Some of the creew still pumping water but are trying to reduce the rate at which they are doing so.

    Some of the crew have promised to stop pumping water into the ship by 2050.

    Some of the crew have promised that that date does not suit them. They will keep pumping water into the ship until 2060.

    Some of the crew say that the gross amount of water they are pumping is totally irrelevant but that it is
    the amount of water they are pumping per capita that really matters in terms of the ship sinking. Truly.

    Some of the crew say that it is not the ones who are manning the pumps who matter. It is the ones who provide the fuel for the pumps who are at fault. So they can keep pumping water into the ship at increasing amounts.

    Over to you, captain! The crew members await your orders. You can set your course for 2050 any which way you can but we will certainly run aground before then if your crew members doing the serious pumping now keep going the way they currently intend.

    The ship may even capsize if it hits any of half a dozen threshold reefs that lurk between now and 2050 or is that 2060?

  12. ‘Jenauthor says:
    Tuesday, September 27, 2022 at 2:09 pm

    Gawd Sussan Ley comes across as a petulant schoolgirl!’
    —————————————
    As soon as Dutton has been humanized and homogenized they can get to work on Ley.

  13. ‘Dr Doolittle says:
    Tuesday, September 27, 2022 at 1:54 pm

    Late Riser at 11 am, Boerwar at 10.08 am

    Yes, LR, Boer’s error was to assume that the body he ridiculed is the ridiculous one, which is the Human Rights Council at level 1 (for background re levels see 9.59 am post), instead of the Human Rights Committee at level 2, which has a useful function and is not ridiculous.

    —————————
    Who appoints the Committee members? To what does the Committee answer?

  14. Things to investigate with a NACC,

    Leppington triangle.
    Dutton and that auto remanufacturer that FJ uncovered.
    That offshore detention contractor.
    Parakeilior? that IT system rort of the LNP.
    Parliamentarians that use their allowances to run businesses on the side.

  15. From the delightful Amy Remeikis!
    “It is back to government questions and it’s Jim Chalmers’ Christmas time, which is also known as Angus Taylor asks a question.”

  16. Socrates at 12.14 pm

    Illuminating maps. Top one needs a code and average salaries are less meaningful in a country like Russia with huge inequality than, e.g. in Scandinavia. Actual inequality in Russia would be much greater than inequality based on only reported incomes.

    For public protests in Dagestan see:

    https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/09/26/in-dagestan-locals-fight-police-on-day-two-of-mass-protests-against-mobilization

    Dagestan is the poorest and least Russian republics of Russia, with the most casualties (now 300 +) in Putin’s war. See this BBC report, including video of women chasing a police officer:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63028586 Some details:

    ‘Elsewhere, a large group of women confronted an officer guarding a recruiting centre and angrily condemned the war in Ukraine, with one telling the officer that “Russia is on the territory of another country”.

    “Why are you taking our children,” the women shouted. “Who was attacked? Russia was attacked? They didn’t come to us. It was us attacking Ukraine. Russia has attacked Ukraine! Stop the war!”

    OVD-Info also reported that locals in the village of Endirey had blocked a federal highway, in an attempt to stop security officials seeking to enforce the draft entering the area.

    Footage obtained by the group showed police officers firing automatic rifles in the air as they sought to break up the demonstration, but locals continued to block the road.

    In an attempt to ease the outbreak of anger, Dagestan’s Governor Sergei Melikov admitted on Sunday that “mistakes have been made” during mobilisation.

    “I have already spoken about this before, but I will repeat it again: partial mobilization must take place strictly according to the criteria announced by the president,” Mr Melikov wrote on Telegram.’

    That shows the null value of Putin’s propaganda. The women of Dagestan, probably amongst the least fortunate in terms of access to education, readily know the truth abut Putin’s war.

    While Putin controls (a la Berlusconi) the commanding heights of Russian propaganda, such as TV, the Russian population knows that his invasion of Ukraine has brought them disaster.

    Dagestan is a long way from Moscow, but there you have the core anti-war message clearly resonating: “Russia has attacked Ukraine! Stop the war!”

  17. Socrates says:
    Tuesday, September 27, 2022 at 6:46 am
    Morning all. Cronus I have read other similar assessments of the lack of impact of the Russian mobilisation.

    One of the best was by retired US general Mark Herling on Twitter. He was their former NATO commander. He pointed out that Putin wound back both Russian army length of conscription in 2008 (to 12 months) and the mobilisation structure itself in Russia.

    All the well trained reservists have already been summoned back to service in four previous rounds of call up.

    So these people being mobilised now are not trained and not fit. They will be joining units with no capacity to train them either. Herling thinks they will be cannon fodder.

    It is also very politicised. Putin’s huge number of police and security will be exempted, as are most white Russians around Moscow and St Petersberg. This will be bad for morale.
    ——————————————————————————————-

    Hi Soc

    There appear to be a good many loose threads to this war and now a mobilisation that really suggest a total lack of links between the political and military goals and the coordination required to achieve them. I’m genuinely perplexed. The mobilisation, at face value from what we currently know focussing on the ethnic minorities, aged (over 40s) and untrained or poorly trained can only be disastrous come Winter. In fact the concept is so bad it makes me wonder if it isn’t a ruse or Information Ops plan designed to deceive.

    Moscow and St Petersburg may well be preserved but at this rate, with potential breakaways in the offing if the regions turn against Putin, Russia may in fact be greatly diminished by Putin’s actions in terms of size and wealth and control of landmass, contrary to his stated imperial aims. And if this current flawed mobilisation fails, I can’t see the families and patriarchs of the Nomenclatura willingly giving their sons to defend a proven folly twelve months hence.

  18. A vet’s attempt to examine Boogie’s anal glands did not go as planned. She thought it improper to have a male fiddle with her private parts. It looks like a general anesthetic doth beckon. And thanks be to the Lord that Vets are not avarice.

  19. I dare say that the sons of the patriarchs and Nomenclatura are safe…
    … regardless of which state is at war… they generally are safe.

  20. From Chalmers in QT (via Guardian Blog):

    “I don’t know what’s more concerning, that the shadow treasurer might not be the sharpest tool in the Liberal party shed, or that he might be the sharpest tool in the Liberal party shed.”

    Here is someone who obviously takes inspiration from PJK. 🙂

  21. Cronus

    The mobilisation, at face value from what we currently know focussing on the ethnic minorities, aged (over 40s) and untrained or poorly trained can only be disastrous

    Where on earth did you hear that ? The people called up were reservists who have previously served in the Russian army and have combat experience. Or those that have specialised military skills. Conscripts are specifically excluded.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-does-vladimir-putins-partial-mobilisation-mean-russias-military-machine-2022-09-21/

  22. Boerwar at 2.17 pm re composition of UN Human Rights Committee

    Relevant articles of the Covenant are 28(2):

    “The Committee shall be composed of nationals of the States Parties to the present Covenant who shall be persons of high moral character and recognized competence in the field of human rights, consideration being given to the usefulness of the participation of some persons having legal experience.”

    And 29(1):

    “The members of the Committee shall be elected by secret ballot from a list of persons possessing the qualifications prescribed in article 28 and nominated for the purpose by the States Parties to the present Covenant.”

    Information about a recent election, to replace members whose terms finish in 2022, is at:

    https://ccprcentre.org/ccprpages/election-of-9-human-rights-committees-members

    Here is the CV of Bacre Waly Ndiaye, who once visited Australia nearly 30 years ago. He has a lot of experience as an international lawyer:

    https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/2022-03/CV-Senegal-Bacre-NDIAYE-CCPR-39.pdf

    Not all committee members have such calibre. But the current Greek chair’s CV looks good:

    “Photini Pazartzis (Greece)
    Date and place of birth: 28 June 1959, Athens, Greece
    Working Languages: Greek, English (fluent), French (fluent), Italian (working)
    Current position/function
    Professor of International Law, Director of the Athens Public International Law Center, Faculty of Law, National & Kapodistrian University of Athens.
    HRC ICCPR, member (2015–2018): Special Rapporteur to Follow-up to Views, Chair, Working Group on Rules of Procedure.
    Main professional activities
    Visiting Fellow at the Lauterpacht Research Centre for International Law and Wolfson College, University of Cambridge (2017–2018), Director of Studies, Hague Academy of International Law (2003), Visiting Professor and lecturer at various Universities, including the Universities of Bordeaux, Vienna, Paris-I (Panthéon-Sorbonne), Paris-II (Panthéon-Assas), Oxford, Xiamen Academy of International Law, Inter-American Court of Human Rights. Member of the Greek Delegation to the Sixth Committee of the United Nations General Assembly (1999–2007); Member of the Scientific Council of the Hellenic Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2005–2006, 2017–), Member of the OSCE Court of Conciliation and Arbitration (2013–); Vice-President of the European Society of International Law (2017–).”

  23. “Is Linda Burney sick?”

    I think she has shown signs of that for some time. Her speech seems a bit impaired. However, if she is she has soldiered on very well at a time when very important things, for her, are in play. I it may be a case of doing very well under challenging circumstances.

  24. Shorten just shut those opposite stone dead by telling them that he attended the opening of the Robodebt RC with two women, whom he named. Both had lost sons to suicide following conflict with those implementing Robodebt.

  25. A question for the Bludger Lounge’s former/current public servants and our assorted legal peeps. There must be a definition of ‘exceptional circumstances’ re the Nacc . Could one/all of you give we lay people a bit of an idea as to what makes a circumstance exceptional in this area.

  26. Boerwar at 2.53 pm and south at 2.48 pm

    Substance matters. Note that Dutton endorsed Linda Burney’s remarks re sexual harassment. Burney might be sick of having to talk to LNP members who often know so little about vital issues, such as Nola Marino’s ranting support for paternalism. The 4 Corners show on Dutton ducked the big question, which is his position on the Voice. That is the only issue that he can influence. Otherwise, he is irrelevant politically, though he can be polite when he chooses. The Resolve poll on the Voice shows why Dutton has hesitated. In essence he opposes it. After all, he tried to dump Turnbull, who rejected it. But he knows most people support it. If Dutton leads the No case and Yes wins, perhaps even in Qld, then his irrelevance will be entrenched.

  27. Is this the sop to the Coalition to get them on board the NACC?

    Mr Dreyfus said the commission would have the power to hold public hearings “in exceptional circumstances and where it is in the public interest to do so”.

    But no public hearings under every circumstance, which was I think the original position of Labor.

  28. C@tmomma at 3:11 pm
    Perhaps the current ‘exceptional’ bar is the bargaining point for the ‘Teals’ . Start there and then lower the bar a notch. The Teals see themselves getting a ‘win’ while Labor looses nothing from such a ‘concession’ to the indies.

  29. Nice parable Boer (2:12pm), but it kinda … gives the lie to your over the top and factually unsustainable bit of scientific illiteracy that started our back and forth today, doesn’t it?

    Too continue with the metaphor within that parable, if the displacement of the hull of that ship was say 100 tonne, then ancient Chinese, Mesopotamian, European and Australian land clearing and burning practises may have – between them – accounted for about 5 tonne of the water. Plus knocked out one of the dozen bilge pumps the ship relies upon to remain operational.

    What happened next – say the age spanning the European maritime empires up to the Industrial Age – may account for another 5 tonne of water and another bilge pump being knocked out of service.

    But fully 80 tonne of water that has now filled the hull has come flooding in in the last 150 years or so, and another half dozen bilge pumps have been knocked out of action. The culprits? Well that would be the industrial west.

    Now here we are. Perhaps 10 tonne of water short of capsizing, with only two bilge pumps still in action.

    Along comes china and it is adding to the amount of water being added to the mix. So is India. That’s significant. But guess what? The industrial west – and its proxies in the OPEC countries – are still adding more water than the combined totals of China, India and other emerging economies.

    Now go back and re-read the stupid bit from your first post this morning concerning the alleged “single biggest current contributor to drowning Pacific Nations …”. The single biggest current contributor is the 80 odd tonnes or water the west added to the ships hull over the past 150 years, plus the 6 bilge pumps that the west knocked out of action during the same period. Because … it just is.

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