Polls: federal and WA leaders, budget response, foreign policy (open thread)

Familiar results on the budget and federal politics generally, plus a finding that Mark McGowan continues to reign supreme in Western Australia.

Fair bit of polling doing the rounds this week, as is generally the case in the wake of a budget:

• The Age/Herald had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including ratings for the two leaders, which had 57% rating Anthony Albanese’s performance as very good or good compared with 28% for poor or very poor, with Peter Dutton respectively at 29% and 41%. The poll also found 40% supported allowing multi-employer bargaining, with 24% opposed; 26% supported mandatory multi-employer bargaining, with 32% opposed; and an even 29% favoured higher wages at the cost of higher prices and vice-versa.

• This fortnight’s Essential Research survey features the monthly prime ministerial ratings, which now involves directing respondents to give Anthony Albanese a rating from zero to ten. Forty-five per cent gave him between seven and ten, down one on last month; 28% gave him from four to six, down three; and 20% gave him zero to three, up three. Questions on the budget turned up one finding missed by the others: 45% said they had paid it little or no attention, around ten points up on the last three budgets, while 55% said a little or a lot, around ten points down. Fifty-two per cent expect economic conditions to worsen over the next twelve months, up twelve since June, while 24% expect them to improve, down eight. Respondents were asked to pick first and second most important contributors to energy price increases, which had excessive profits and efforts to fight climate change leading the field, international circumstances and a worn-out energy network somewhat lower, and too many restrictions on exploration well behind. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1058.

• Roy Morgan’s regular weekly video has included primary votes from its latest federal poll, conducted from October 24 (the day before the budget) to October 30, rather than just two-party preferred as per its usual form. This shows Labor on 38.5% (down half on the previous week), the Coalition on 37% (up one-and-a-half), the Greens on 12% (up one), independents on 6% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (down one-and-a-half). Labor led 55.5-44.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54.5-45.5.

• The quarterly-or-so True Issues series from JWS Research is a “special release” on the budget, as opposed to its usual focus on issue salience. It finds 14% of respondents saying the budget would be good or very good for them personally compared with 36% for average and 31% for poor or very poor; for the national economic impact, the respective numbers were 20%, 38% and 25%. However, respondents provided highly positive responses when asked about fifteen specific budget measures, all but one of which attracted a favourable response – the distinct exception being “axing” the low-and-middle income tax offset. The most popular spending measures involved health and the least popular (relatively speaking) involved parental leave and childcare subsidies.

• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of a YouGov poll it commissioned encompassing 1000 respondents in each of Australia, the United States and Japan, conducted from September 5 to 9. It found 44% of Australians would support responding with force if China invaded Taiwan, compared with 33% of Americans; 36% of Australians felt the US alliance made Australia more secure, with 58% of Americans holding a reciprocal view, up from 44% in December; 52% of Australians felt China was “mostly harmful” in Asia, with 20% rating it “mostly helpful”; an interestingly even 28% and 31% felt the same way about the United States, in dramatic contrast to results of 7% and 52% among Japanese respondents; 36% approved of the federal government’s handling of the relationship with China, with 19% disapproving; 52% supported the nuclear submarines plan, with 19% opposed; and “one in two”. Thirty-six per cent of Australians felt it would be good for the country if Joe Biden won another term compared with 19% for bad, while 50% felt a return of Donald Trump would be bad compared with 26% for good.

• In a rare bit of interesting polling news from Western Australia, a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finds Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 70%, up two from March, and a disapproval rating of 18%, down seven, suggesting a consistency of popularity beyond any Australian politician I could name. David Honey, leader of what remains of the state parliamentary Liberal Party, had an approval rating of just 9%, with 31% disapproving, 40% neutral and 19% oblivious. The poll also found stage three tax cuts supported by 53% and opposed by 32%. It was conducted from October 19 to 21 from a sample of 637.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,198 comments on “Polls: federal and WA leaders, budget response, foreign policy (open thread)”

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  1. The U.N.’s nuclear watchdog said on Thursday that it had inspected three Ukrainian facilities and found no evidence of illegal nuclear activity, debunking claims Russian officials made last week that Ukraine was using the sites to prepare a “dirty bomb.”

    Dirty bombs are improvised bombs that use conventional high explosives to spread radioactive material into the surrounding area. President Vladimir V. Putin joined his senior military leaders in making the assertion that Ukraine was planning to use one.

    But the top diplomats of the United States, Britain and France have firmly rejected the Russian claims, which were unaccompanied by any evidence. Last week, the diplomats issued a rare joint statement saying that the Kremlin could be using the false claim as a pretext to escalate its war on Ukraine.

    Ukraine also rejected Russia’s claim and, in a bid to show that it was not producing such a weapon, invited the U.N. watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, to inspect the three facilities featured in Russia’s accusation. The sites are a mine in the center of the country, a machine building plant in Dnipro Province and a nuclear research institute in the capital, Kyiv.

    “Our technical and scientific evaluation of the results we have so far did not show any sign of undeclared nuclear activities and materials at these three locations,” the agency’s director general, Rafael Mariano Grossi, said in a statement on Thursday, following the agency’s inspection.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/world/europe/iaea-ukraine-dirty-bomb.html

  3. CT Group, co-owned by Lynton Crosby, planned secretive African campaign on behalf of Canadian mining giant

    A lobbying firm with deep ties to the Conservative party planned a secretive campaign to influence elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in exchange for millions of pounds from a mining company.

    Leaked documents suggest the influential firm co-owned by the veteran Tory strategist Sir Lynton Crosby agreed to help the mining company swing a presidential election in the central African country.

    The files suggest CT Group also worked, under the radar, on a political influence campaign in Zambia on behalf of mining interests while working on a campaign to oust the country’s president.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/03/tory-linked-lobbying-firm-agreed-to-help-swing-drc-election-leak-suggests

  4. The polls still strongly support Labor (Federal and WA) approach to tackling the issues of concern to the majority of Australian people…

    No surprise, that’s what politicians are supposed to do: identify real problems (not fictitious ones) and provide real and effective solutions (not crappy ones) to those problems… Who would have thought that this simple formula was a winner?… Ha!

  5. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Yet another Robodebt reporting drought from the MSM, so I will compensate by putting its stories first.

    Luke Henriques-Gomes report that the royal commission was told plans for what became the robodebt scheme “almost immediately” concerned policy advisers at the Department of Social Services and were viewed by one official as “unethical”. It also heard that the only legal advice held by the government departments was the unfavourable advice created by DSS in late 2014, which suggested the robodebt scheme would unlawful.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/03/robodebt-royal-commission-inquiry-hears-advisers-almost-immediately-concerned-by-initial-plan-centrelink-welfare-debt-recovery
    The Robodebt royal commission is currently hearing evidence of tremendous hardship inflicted on people by a government that appeared to have little concern for the people its actions affected. The bureaucratic process was malign, and it harmed and stigmatised welfare recipients, say these contributors to The Conversation.
    https://theconversation.com/the-robodebt-scheme-failed-tests-of-lawfulness-impartiality-integrity-and-trust-193832
    Mike Foley and Nick Toscano report that the federal government is debating whether to slap unprecedented price controls on gas companies through existing gas trigger laws as it urgently seeks a way to ease the burden of soaring energy bills confronting households and businesses.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/glut-of-greed-unprecedented-price-controls-loom-for-gas-exporters-20221103-p5bv8b.html
    The hard truth for NSW and Victorian leaders in this energy crisis is that their fortunes are now in the hands of the premiers who sit in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, explains David Crowe.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/big-states-become-beggars-in-national-gas-wars-20221102-p5bv3e.html
    Michelle Grattan says that Anthony Albanese won’t be at COP27 but energy will be on his mind.
    https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-anthony-albanese-wont-be-at-cop27-but-energy-will-be-on-his-mind-193850
    The oil and gas majors, and their shareholders, have become collateral beneficiaries of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prompting talk of a Robin Hood-style redistribution profits to consumers and other businesses, writes Elizabeth Knight who says Treasurer Jim Chalmers has made it abundantly clear that finding a mechanism to alter the behaviour of gas companies or redistribute some of that excessive revenue to lower power bills is both inevitable and imminent.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/pitchforks-out-for-greedy-gas-as-high-prices-fuel-tax-talk-20221103-p5bvd2.html
    Conservatives insist policies to cut emissions drive up power bills. There’s net zero evidence for that, argues Graham Readfearn.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/03/conservatives-insist-policies-to-cut-emissions-drive-up-power-bills-theres-net-zero-evidence-for-that
    Gas producers have hit back at renewed claims by Industry Minister Ed Husic they were motivated by greed, saying the issue lay with retailers. Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association chief executive officer Samantha McCulloch suggested Mr Husic should be focusing his ire on the gas retailers as they were the ones marking up the price.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/blame-the-retailers-not-the-producers-gas-giants-return-fire-20221102-p5butz
    The debate about Australia becoming a renewable energy superpower has reached fever pitch, and banks and other financiers are jostling for a slice of the action, reports The Australian’s Joyce Moullakis.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/green-powerhouse-lure-has-aussie-financiers-salivating/news-story/2ddf86fbf7fbf0406d729e3d7cb56d04
    The Liberals still face a long road back to power, but Labor is now facing the harsh realities of being in government, writes Phil Coorey who reckons the Liberals have found their line and length as Labor shifts to the back foot.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/liberals-find-their-line-and-length-as-labor-shifts-to-back-foot-20221103-p5bv6y
    Writing about terrorism going under a new name in the US, Waleed Aly says, “Right now, that radicalisation is disproportionately on the right and radical violence overwhelmingly so. Since 2015, there have been about four right-wing plots or attacks for every left-wing one. This is what happens when one mainstream party positions itself against the very institutions of democracy, as the Republicans have largely done, and the Democrats have largely not.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/where-s-nancy-terrorism-in-the-us-now-goes-by-a-new-name-20221102-p5bv3a.html
    IR professor, Charles F Wright, argues that international evidence supports multiple-employer bargaining. An interesting read.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/international-evidence-supports-multiple-employer-bargaining-20221103-p5bvai.html
    According to Ewin Hannan, businesses would be able to negotiate with workers for six to 12 months before being roped into multi-employer bargaining by unions under confidential concessions being examined by Labor to try to win Senate support for its contentious industrial relations changes.
    https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/nation/multiemployer-bargaining-labor-eyes-industrial-relations-deal/news-story/556d852559d251b2e19fcd641fc778b2
    AUSTRALIA’S 2022-23 Migration Program will be vastly different to the 2021-22 program, not just in size but also in composition, writes Abul Rizvi who points out that the skill stream under Labor’s migration program hits an historical high.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/skill-stream-under-labors-migration-program-hits-historical-high,16929
    The recent Labor “bullying” claims are just another publicity stunt to add to the great Liberal gaslit bonfire of bullshit, declares Michelle Pini.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/landry-labor-bullying-claim-a-lame-media-grab,16933
    The state’s top secret crime-fighting agency has accused William Tyrrell’s foster mother of disposing of the little boy’s body after he fell from a balcony, a Sydney court has heard. Police have charged the woman with lying to the Crime Commission about hitting another foster child in her care with a wooden spoon.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/no-please-no-secret-recording-of-william-tyrrell-s-foster-mother-allegedly-hitting-child-20221103-p5bvch.html
    There is a deep irony in one of the world’s richest men declaring a platform the “public square” and then using his immense wealth to achieve control of it, writes Osman Faruqi about Musk’s purchase of Twitter.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-billionaire-in-charge-of-the-public-square-this-can-t-be-the-internet-s-future-20221101-p5burm.html
    More than 25 years after the Port Arthur massacre and the ban on assault rifles, Victoria still has a gun problem. Police statistics show firearm offences are on the rise after a lull during the pandemic. Marta Pascual Juanola tells us about the secret arsenals and grey market that fuel Victoria’s firearm problem.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/ghost-guns-and-3d-printing-secret-arsenals-and-grey-market-fuel-victoria-s-firearm-problem-20220829-p5bdk5.html
    James Robertson writes that Malcolm Turnbull has slammed Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s stance on renewable energy as based on “complete and utter nonsense”. Further, Mr Turnbull says the Liberal Party has become unelectable and “walked away” from voters at the centre of politics under Mr Dutton’s leadership.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/11/03/turnbull-dutton-nuclear-energy/
    False reporting of bank data over decades has prompted an open letter from Dale Webster calling for Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus to look at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s faulty management.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/attorney-general-asked-to-examine-apras-integrity-standards,16922
    Hillsong founder Brian Houston will face a three-week hearing into his alleged concealment of his father’s sexual abuse of children next month but rather than turning up to court, which his lawyer did on his behalf, the pastor was addressing his followers on social media, writes Sally Rawsthorne.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/hillsong-s-brian-houston-takes-to-facebook-faces-child-sex-abuse-cover-up-claim-20221103-p5bv8x.html
    Australia’s prison system will cost $7bn a year by 2030 due to higher incarceration rates, with the number of women jailed growing faster than men, a report suggests. Paul Karp reports that a Committee for Economic Development of Australia study on the economic and social costs of keeping women behind bars, to be released today, states that bail reform and other measures are needed to reduce prison populations.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/nov/04/australias-prisons-to-cost-7bn-a-year-by-2030-as-number-of-women-incarcerated-grows-faster-than-men-study
    Australians are reporting online crimes such as extortion and fraud every seven minutes, as authorities sound the alarm on a disturbing new fusion of criminal cyber gangs, explains Matthew Knott in quite a disturbing article.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/cybercrime-gangs-combining-with-nation-states-in-profound-new-trend-20221103-p5bv7h.html
    Lisa Visentin writes that David Littleproud has urged the federal parliament to consider if there should be a total ban on gambling ads during sports broadcasts, saying more could be done to protect children from exposure to online betting. It really is insidious.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/littleproud-calls-for-tougher-crackdown-on-online-gambling-advertising-during-sports-broadcasts-20221103-p5bv6c.html
    Meanwhile, according to Amelia McGuire, the director of Australia’s peak financial counselling body has called for a major regulatory overhaul of online gambling, after the financial crimes watchdog announced an investigation into two of the industry’s biggest players over potential breaches of money laundering laws. AUSTRAC has announced that Sportsbet and Bet 365 may face multimillion-dollar fines and severe regulatory interventions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/austrac-to-probe-sportsbet-bet365-over-money-laundering-concerns-20221103-p5bv7l.html
    Leading Australian sports organisations have reacted defensively to a poll that shows 62 per cent of people want the multi-million dollar relationship between gambling companies and major codes banned.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/major-sports-play-straight-bat-to-anti-gambling-sentiment-20221103-p5bvcz.html
    Jason Clare has a draft plan to fix the teacher shortage. These contributors to The Conversation explain what needs to stay and what should change.
    https://theconversation.com/jason-clare-has-a-draft-plan-to-fix-the-teacher-shortage-what-needs-to-stay-and-what-should-change-193834
    Here is part 2 of John Menadue’s article on what he describes as “the $530 billion junk infrastructure scandal”.
    https://johnmenadue.com/with-interest-rates-rising-sydney-and-melbournes-half-trillion-dollar-junk-infrastructure-addiction-becomes-an-even-bigger-waste-of-money-part-2-of-2/
    Christine Allen reports that residents who have had flammable cladding removed from their apartments under a Victorian government program say they have been left broke and unable to sell their homes after the building regulator demanded they pay for expensive additional works.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/it-s-cruel-it-s-intolerable-residents-hit-with-huge-bills-for-extra-safety-works-20221103-p5bv9n.html
    Michael Gleeson reports that Essendon’s short-lived chief executive Andrew Thorburn has hired legal counsel and is pursuing legal action against the club after he was forced to resign. Thorburn’s position has hardened in recent times with the former banker believing the case is of religious discrimination and wanting satisfaction for damage to his reputation.
    https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/thorburn-hires-lawyers-over-departure-as-essendon-ceo-20221103-p5bvh0.html
    Epidemiologists Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz and Greg Dore explain what the future of ‘living with COVID’ looks like.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-the-future-of-living-with-covid-looks-like-20221103-p5bvap.html
    The explosions at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines on September 26 in the Baltic Sea have been deemed an act of sabotage – but which nations or actors are responsible is yet to be known. Given the scale of the environmental crime, why are we not demanding the truth? What explains Western silence, asks Chandran Nair.
    https://johnmenadue.com/nord-stream-urgent-need-for-international-investigations-into-crimes-against-the-environment/
    Nobody knows what military threats to Australia from China or anyone else, will exist in 2050. In these circumstances, it is folly to commit to spending over $200 million on acquiring eight US designed nuclear attack submarines to deploy in support of the US on the China coast, writes Brian Touhey.
    https://johnmenadue.com/australian-submarine-madness/
    Britain is facing its longest recession on record, the Bank of England warned on Thursday, as it delivered its biggest interest rate rise in more than three decades to fight a surge in inflation from soaring energy prices. Rob Harris writes that Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said the UK economy likely entered a recession in the three months through September, when output fell an estimated 0.5 per cent. He warned it would last until mid-2024 with inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index, expected to peak at 11 per cent this winter before falling next year.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/tough-road-ahead-britain-already-in-recession-that-could-last-two-years-warns-bank-of-england-20221103-p5bvho.html
    The Bank of England has warned of the UK facing its longest recession since the 1930s.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/03/bank-of-england-raises-interest-rates-to-3-percent
    Donald Trump has sued the attorney general of New York state, Letitia James, over what he claims is a “relentless, pernicious, public, and unapologetic crusade” against him, in the shape of her recent civil lawsuit against the former president and three of his adult children, Donald Jr, Ivanka and Eric.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/03/trump-sues-letitia-james-ny-attorney-lawsuit

    Cartoon Corner

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding



    Andrew Dyson

    Jim Pavlidis

    John Shakespeare

    Simon Letch

    Fiona Katauskas

    Peter Broelman

    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US















  6. The ground near Hawaii’s Mauna Loa volcano is shaking. What does it mean?

    Scientists say the world’s largest volcano could erupt and officials are telling residents to be prepared

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/nov/03/hawaii-mauna-loa-volcano-shaking-erupt-meaning

    Meanwhile, Kilauea has been quietly filling in the hole left by the caldera collapse on 2018, with 111 million cubic metres of lava (~22% of Sydney Harbour) erupted since September last year, raising the crater floor 143 metres.

  8. Thanks BK, quite the Friday read ahead of us.

    Very satisfactory poll roundup imo given the difficult economic context and settings. This is certainly what adult government looks like, measured, reasoned, calm yet assertive. Looks like the honeymoon continues, or is this in fact the norm?

  9. “C@tmomma says:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 7:35 am
    This cartoon is on the money”….

    Yes, American democracy is in real troubles… and Putin is watching with great interest, hoping that his mates in the MAGA Republican party will interfere with Biden’s military help to Ukraine….

  11. Not being a subscriber, Coorey’s AFR article is beyond my reach. But the 4 lines I could see indicate that Coorey’s found his groove.

  12. Great roundup BK. I don’t say it often, certainly not often enough, but you are a dead set legend. Thank you for this superb resource.

    Gambling sponsorship… it is another example of big companies not knowing bounds, believing there are none and shouldn’t be any. I am not against the idea of gambling sponsorship in a society that condones gambling. Yet clearly it has gone too far – to have odds and links to online gambling so prominent on a sports main website is f’d. Sport only on these sites please. Gamblers can easily and quickly go elsewhere for their bets, have this crap on sports websites viewed by young people and punters trying to give up the urge is cruel and disgusting. You could have gambling ads on the videos on these sites – perhaps – but no odds and no links.

    I think some of their commercial ads warnings are actually good and sometimes prominent enough but there needs to be some truth in their TV adverts – having the whole crowd jumping for joy at their winnings at the end of a race (bar one or two sad souls) is BS. Find a way to advertise your product without this crap.

    Big company marketing execs are moral vacuums who need regulation. Governments should never be afraid of doing so.

  13. I sense a growing groundswell in the community towards increased gas regulation. It seems voters have had enough of the industry making super profits at our expense giving Chalmers the license to act. As always, greed is it’s own destruction.

    This scenario won’t be like the Rudd MRRT because in this case, the regulation will be borne out of public anger and no amount of industry lies and money will be sufficient to stop the momentum for regulation. The public is providing Chalmers with the imperative to act.

  14. The United Kingdom, the world’s fifth largest economy, is probably already in a recession and it could end up being the longest the country has seen since records began.

    Britain’s economy might not grow again until 2024.

    That was the dire economic outlook from the country’s central bank as it ratcheted interest rates up by three quarters of a basis point to 3 per cent on Thursday.

  16. Cronus @ #NaN Friday, November 4th, 2022 – 7:54 am

    I sense a growing groundswell in the community towards increased gas regulation. It seems voters have had enough of the industry making super profits at our expense giving Chalmers the license to act. As always, greed is it’s own destruction.

    This scenario won’t be like the Rudd MRRT because in this case, the regulation will be borne out of public anger and no amount of industry lies and money will be sufficient to stop the momentum for regulation. The public is providing Chalmers with the imperative to act.

    Exactly. Because the line from the MRRT went from the Mining companies to the government coffers. No one saw the benefit directly. Whereas this Gas action will go from Gas profiteering to people’s pockets to reduce their bills. That’s why it will get a leave pass for the government from the people.

  17. In one of the articles about the wagering companies that I read yesterday it was stated as a fact that, if you figure out how to win consistently they cancel your account!

    Ergo, the conclusion is that the company’s business model is predicated on the losers.

    Who they encourage with all their marketing tricks.

    It sure is f’d.

  18. c@tmomma. Yep, you are right. A friend was quite successful on NBA betting for some strange reason. Various companies banned them after a while after first limiting the size of the bet they could place in an effort to get them to go elsewhere. They really are scum.


  19. alfred venison says:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 6:34 am
    hook, line, and sinker. the ukrainian army’s been creamed. its over.

    It looks to me like the Russians are preparing to once again blow up the Kakhovka dam. What do you think alfred venison, have the Kremlin stayed that low?

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/blowing-up-dam-would-only-slow-ukrainian-advance-by-two-weeks-south-spy-chief-2022-10-24/

    https://www.rferl.org/a/european-remembrance-day-ukraine-little-known-ww2-tragedy/25083847.html

    Do you think Alexander Lukashenko will survive the collapse of the Kremlin?
    Ramzan Kadyrov, what is going to happen to him?

  20. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 8:15 am
    Cronus @ #NaN Friday, November 4th, 2022 – 7:54 am

    I sense a growing groundswell in the community towards increased gas regulation. It seems voters have had enough of the industry making super profits at our expense giving Chalmers the license to act. As always, greed is it’s own destruction.

    This scenario won’t be like the Rudd MRRT because in this case, the regulation will be borne out of public anger and no amount of industry lies and money will be sufficient to stop the momentum for regulation. The public is providing Chalmers with the imperative to act.
    Exactly. Because the line from the MRRT went from the Mining companies to the government coffers. No one saw the benefit directly. Whereas this Gas action will go from Gas profiteering to people’s pockets to reduce their bills. That’s why it will get a leave pass for the government from the people.
    ————————————————————————————————

    C@T
    +1, in a nutshell, nailed it.

  21. That’s why it will get a leave pass for the government from the people.
    ____
    Indicative of the successful use of the “long game”. The same game that is being played on stage 3 tax cuts.

  22. Thank you, BK.

    The APS hero who straight away declared to his colleagues that Robodebt was ‘unethical’ is a true Australian hero. That took moral courage, speaking truth to power and, with a minister like Morrison, was potentially, and probably actually, career limiting. He made ‘bureaucrat’ and ‘public servant’ terms of honour.

    He is the sort of person to whom the nation should be truly grateful.

  24. The polls are being skewed by the republicans

    I’m sticking with my prediction re the midterms that the dems will hold the house and the senate by a couple of seats.

    Wont stop the republicans fighting the result in the courts. Rocky times ahead.

  25. I’m sticking with my prediction re the midterms that the Dems will LOSE the house and the senate by a couple of seats.
    Get ready for economic chaos and a shutdown of the Government as debt limit frozen.

  26. “Indicative of the successful use of the “long game”. The same game that is being played on stage 3 tax cuts.”

    +100

  28. How smart is Labor to be playing the long game on S3? When do Bludgers think they will announce they will be scrapped. I didn’t possibly think that Labor was playing the long game on S3. Not strategic enough clearly. Does that mean they are going?

  30. Replace ‘ideology and idiocy’: Malcolm Turnbull denounces ‘unelectable’ Peter Dutton

    https://thenewdaily-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thenewdaily.com.au/news/politics/2022/11/03/turnbull-dutton-nuclear-energy/amp/?amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16675084676362&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fthenewdaily.com.au%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2F2022%2F11%2F03%2Fturnbull-dutton-nuclear-energy%2F

  31. Malcom Turnbull said the Liberal party had ‘lost its way’ on climate as it continues to push against renewables.

    Here’s a fresh idea, Malcolm. Why don’t you get Daisy to stand in the State seat that covers Potts Point for the Teals? You know she wants to get into politics. Kick the old Liberals out. Then the Turnbulls and the Holmes A’Courts could solidify things into a national party with representatives at Local, State and Federal level. Call themselves The Third Way or something. 🙂

  32. This is also a very, very fine article as it relates to the current Kherson Offensive and why it’s so important to Putin to try and keep the area:

    Amid signs in late summer that Ukraine was planning a major counteroffensive into Kherson, Russia shifted military units to the south, contributing to the swift success of another Ukrainian offensive in the Kharkiv region in the northeast. But Ukraine’s push south has been slow, and it has come with heavy casualties.

    Efforts to liberate towns in Kherson have slowed further in recent days, as autumn rains have already made the ground muddy. And Russian defenses don’t appear to be collapsing as they did when Ukrainian forces roared through Kharkiv in September.

    The Kherson region forms the last crucial component of the “land bridge” from mainland Russia to Crimea that Putin has coveted ever since Moscow invaded the peninsula and annexed it illegally in 2014. And the inability to reach Crimea by road was a main reason Putin spent $4 billion to build the Crimean Bridge across the Kerch Strait.

    https://wapo.st/3sZHoEq
    (I have ‘gifted’ this article so anyone can read it for free 🙂 )

  33. Morning all. Thanks BK for an excellent roundup. Some good reading.

    On this one
    “ Here is part 2 of John Menadue’s article on what he describes as “the $530 billion junk infrastructure scandal”.
    https://johnmenadue.com/with-interest-rates-rising-sydney-and-melbournes-half-trillion-dollar-junk-infrastructure-addiction-becomes-an-even-bigger-waste-of-money-part-2-of-2/

    Menadue is correct. Labor really needs to blow the whistle on Australia’s obsession with freeway projects, especially the tolled type in tunnels. After a string of these projects went bankrupt in the late 00s this project model should have been abandoned. Instead they switched from private equity to public. Now the projects are still just as wasteful but the money wasted is taxpayers’.

    To illustrate the scale of the folly in east cost large transport tunnel projects, compare the recent Perth Airport rail tunnel project to recent Sydney tunnels. Forrestfield was a conventional D&C and cost $1.8 billion for 8km. Sydney Metro SW will cost $12 billion for 17km. Double the length for six times the price.

  35. From previous thread
    ”
    pukkasays:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 6:24 am
    The Bank of England have said the UK is entering a recession that may last 2 years. If it lasts 3 years it may be described as a depression.

    No mention of Robodebt in ABC news or RN Breakfast and what the papers say. This is in stark contrast to other MSM efforts of conflating the death of Kitching with an unrelated discussion.
    ”

    Un-believable. Is next GFC on the way?
    Last depression started in USA.
    Did the Queen had a gut feeling that UK is going down the gurgler and did not want to see that?
    Medical professionals say that when a patient loses the will to live, it is very difficult for them resuscitate the patient.

  36. wranslide says:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 8:54 am
    How smart is Labor to be playing the long game on S3? When do Bludgers think they will announce they will be scrapped. I didn’t possibly think that Labor was playing the long game on S3. Not strategic enough clearly. Does that mean they are going?

    _________________________________________

    Given that I, and others, have REPEATEDLY posted that the time to address them is just prior to when they take effect in 2024 (i.e., the 2024 Budget) and they will unlikely be abolished, but reformulated to offer relief to those taxpayers most adversely affected by inflation, I really wonder where you have been?

  37. BW @ https://www.pollbludger.net/2022/11/04/polls-federal-and-wa-leaders-budget-response-foreign-policy-open-thread/#comment-4004284
    “He is the sort of person to whom the nation should be truly grateful” dying race unfortunately. There were many such officers in the APS when I joined in the mid 1990’s. Howard’s purge aka the Canberra recession, managed to rid the service of many of these who retired early etc. Subsequent governments only accelerated the exodus including the 2 ALP terms. I left in 2014 before the worst of Abbott and things will have only deteriorated since.

  38. Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 50% (-1)
    CON: 24% (+1)
    LDM: 9% (=)
    RFM: 6% (=)
    GRN: 5% (+1)
    SNP: 4% (-1)

    Via @YouGov , 1-2 Nov. Changes w/ 25-26 Oct.

  39. ”
    The oil and gas majors, and their shareholders, have become collateral beneficiaries of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, prompting talk of a Robin Hood-style redistribution profits to consumers and other businesses, writes Elizabeth Knight who says Treasurer Jim Chalmers has made it abundantly clear that finding a mechanism to alter the behaviour of gas companies or redistribute some of that excessive revenue to lower power bills is both inevitable and imminent.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/pitchforks-out-for-greedy-gas-as-high-prices-fuel-tax-talk-20221103-p5bvd2.html
    ”

    If Jim Chalmers can tax FF companies and distribute the tax proceeds to low income families/ individuals who are most affected by Energy price rises, it will be great. The prime responsibility of a government is to look after their most vulnerable. Otherwise there is no meaning to government services.

  40. Regarding highways the urbanists have a meme where there is like a 20 lane freeway, and ‘yeah sure 1 more lane will fix it’.

    It is surprising more traffic engineers haven’t heard about induced demand.

    The traffic problem was literally the first lecture of first year maths sciences.

  42. BK says:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 8:41 am
    That’s why it will get a leave pass for the government from the people.
    ____
    Indicative of the successful use of the “long game”. The same game that is being played on stage 3 tax cuts.
    ———————————————————————————————-

    Again, +1

  43. Thanks BK. Breakfast will take a while. 😉

    The stories this morning on gas prices, seem to show that the frame for the discussion and thereby the accepted solutions are shifting away from the Coalition frame of “frack baby frack”. We’re moving towards regulation and social licenses.

  44. WeWantPaul

    “ It is surprising more traffic engineers haven’t heard about induced demand.

    The traffic problem was literally the first lecture of first year maths sciences.”

    Traffic engineers have heard about it. Likewise transport economists. These days freeway projects are dreamed up by politicians, construction project managers looking for a juicy contract, and financiers wanting to run the PPP consortium for an even juicier fee.

  45. ”
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 7:54 am
    The United Kingdom, the world’s fifth largest economy, is probably already in a recession and it could end up being the longest the country has seen since records began.

    Britain’s economy might not grow again until 2024.

    That was the dire economic outlook from the country’s central bank as it ratcheted interest rates up by three quarters of a basis point to 3 per cent on Thursday.
    ”

    Sixth largest economy and not fifth largest economy. Not that it matters for that country. Never mind.

  49. WeWantPaulsays:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 9:28 am
    Regarding highways the urbanists have a meme where there is like a 20 lane freeway, and ‘yeah sure 1 more lane will fix it’.

    It is surprising more traffic engineers haven’t heard about induced demand.

    The traffic problem was literally the first lecture of first year maths sciences.
    __________________________
    Time to discuss Braess’s paradox?
    Or is it better to suggest that one should Never Turn Right at Burke Rd, Malvern…

  50. wranslide says:
    Friday, November 4, 2022 at 9:49 am
    Sorry TPOF. I must have missed your strategic pronouncements for Labor. I look forward to it being announced.

    _____________________________________

    Not just mine. Of course, it is understandable that you missed it, given the huge amount of hysterical noise going on demanding that Labor self-immolate in this budget.

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